3 June Daily technical trader


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3 June Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index moved lower and shed around 146 points (-1.06%) as traders opted to book profits. Meanwhile, the index failed to make any further headway above 13,700.0 and reversed, breaching its support near 13,584.0 as sustained selling at a higher level pulled it down. We believe the index may further consolidate or decline before resuming its uptrend. However, the bias may become bullish again if the index closes above the 13,584.0 level. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback CBQK developed a bearish Harami candle pattern on Sunday and further drifted down yesterday penetrating below the 21-day moving average, thus confirming this reversal pattern which was bullish. We believe although the stock is trading close to its immediate support of QR68.40, it seems unlikely that CBQK may cling onto it and further decline to test QR67.30. Meanwhile, both indicators look weak. However, a close above QR68.76 may provide some relief. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index declined for the second straight session and fell around -1.42% to close the session at 4,539.07. The index slipped below the 4,600.0 level and subsequently witnessed selling pressure as the bears were under full control. The index is currently trading close to its immediate support near 4,530.0. If the index moves below this level, the pullback is expected to continue pushing it further down. On the flip side, a price rebound may have bullish implications. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Rebound GISS gained 1.06% and closed above the resistance of the 21-day moving average after developing a Doji candle pattern on Sunday. Moreover, the stock ended in a small bullish candlestick formation indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. Meanwhile, the RSI is in the buy zone supporting this bullish sentiment. Traders could consider buying this stock if it trades above QR95.0 for a target price of QR98.0 and with a stop loss of the QR94.50 level. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Pullback MARK halted its uptrend on Sunday and further declined yesterday, indicating a likely continuation of this pullback. Moreover, the negative slopes of both the RSI and the MACD lines indicate that the stock may drift down further and re-test its immediate support of QR59.90. Any sustained weakness below this level may create additional selling pressure and drag the stock toward QR57.30. However, a close above the QR62.0 level may attract buyers. Ooredoo: Short-Term – Upmove ORDS gained 0.45% and did not weaken even after market turbulence, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock has been in upmove mode and is moving along the ascending channel line since clearing both the 21-day and 55-day moving averages. Thus, the prognosis of this time indicates that the stock may advance further toward QR159.0. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is intact, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line in a bullish manner.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,551.18 UP UP 13,447.17 13,350.54 13,584.34 13,650.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,539.07 UP UP 4,528.58 4,444.86 4,600.00 4,638.72 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 61.50 UP UP 59.90 57.30 62.00 63.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 68.60 UP UP 68.40 67.30 69.00 69.80 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 62.70 DOWN DOWN 62.00 60.50 63.00 63.90 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 105.00 UP UP 103.50 102.00 106.50 107.80 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 86.00 DOWN UP 85.00 83.00 86.10 87.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.70 UP UP 76.00 74.80 78.00 79.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.59 UP UP 23.49 23.23 24.00 24.50 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 85.70 DOWN UP 85.20 83.00 87.80 90.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 183.10 DOWN UP 183.00 182.00 185.00 187.50 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 189.00 UP UP 188.50 186.40 191.00 194.60 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 198.30 UP UP 196.00 192.00 200.00 202.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 95.00 UP UP 93.00 91.80 95.00 97.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 64.70 DOWN UP 62.40 61.30 66.50 68.40 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 42.45 UP UP 42.00 41.40 44.50 46.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.35 UP UP 26.00 25.29 26.45 27.35 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 158.00 UP UP 155.20 153.50 159.00 161.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 21.70 UP UP 20.79 20.00 22.80 23.50 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.00 DOWN UP 23.40 22.45 24.20 24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.90 FLAT FLAT 93.10 87.30 95.10 96.50