23 July Daily technical trader
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23 July Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index witnessed a strong rebound and gained around 168 points (1.29%) to close above 13,250.0. The index respected the support near 13,080.0 and bounced back, clearing both the 13,100.0 and 13,200.0 psychological levels in a single swoop. We believe based on the recent price action and pick up in volumes, the index may advance further to test the 13,300.0-13,350.0 levels. Conversely, 13,200.0 may act as an immediate support level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Rebound IQCD found support near the 21-day moving average and rebounded to clear its resistance of QR178.30 after witnessing a decline over the past two days. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto the QR178.30 level, it may extend its gains and test the QR180.0 level. Any move above this level may spark additional buying interest and push the stock further to test QR181.40. However, any decline below QR178.30 may result in a pullback. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term –Bounce Back The QERI Index bounced back by 1.14% to settle above the 4,450.0 level, after registering losses over the past two days. Moreover, the index closed above the important resistance of 4,445.0, which is a positive development. The index needs to cling onto 4,445.0, in order to continue its rally further toward 4,500.0-4,530.0 levels. On the other hand, any retreat below 4,445.0 on a closing basis may pull the index back to test the 4,400.0 level. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Uptrend MCGS advanced 3.06% after pausing its rally over the past two days. The stock has been in an uptrend mode, registering strong gains since moving above both the moving averages. We believe increased participation is reflecting the optimism among traders. Moreover both the momentum indicators are positively poised, indicating a likely higher move from the current level. However, any failure to move above QR101.30 may result in consolidation and halt its uptrend. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upmove MARK gained 2% and cleared its ascending triangle resistance of QR55.80, after consolidating below it over the past few days. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, which is a positive sign. The stock also developed a bullish candlestick formation on daily charts, indicating a continuation of this upmove. Further, the RSI is in the buy zone. Thus, traders may consider buying the stock at the current level for a target of QR57.30 with a stop loss of QR55.80. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Uptrend GISS bounced back and moved higher by 3.54% after moving sideways over the past two days. The stock has been outperforming since moving above both the moving averages and is on an uptrend mode. With both the momentum indicators pointing higher, we believe the stock may continue its bullish momentum and rally further to test QR119.50. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on QR115.0, as any dip below this level may drag the stock.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,258.42 UP UP 13,195.88 13,079.52 13,350.54 13,584.34 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,452.52 UP UP 4,444.85 4,400.00 4,500.00 4,528.58 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 56.10 UP UP 55.80 54.00 57.30 59.90 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.40 UP UP 68.30 67.40 70.00 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 58.10 FLAT DOWN 58.10 57.40 59.30 60.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 103.70 UP UP 102.00 100.00 104.50 107.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.70 UP UP 85.00 83.50 88.00 88.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 90.10 UP UP 88.90 87.30 91.00 92.40 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.52 UP FLAT 22.35 21.87 22.60 23.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 101.00 UP UP 100.00 98.40 101.30 105.90 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 180.50 UP UP 179.00 175.00 181.60 183.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 179.30 UP DOWN 178.30 175.50 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.10 FLAT DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 187.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 117.00 UP UP 115.00 111.90 119.50 122.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.10 DOWN DOWN 54.40 52.40 56.10 57.00 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 44.80 UP UP 43.80 43.20 45.00 45.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.95 UP UP 27.20 26.45 28.50 29.35 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 133.60 FLAT DOWN 129.70 128.00 134.20 136.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.64 UP UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.78 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.70 FLAT FLAT 23.60 23.00 24.12 24.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.00 DOWN DOWN 92.00 91.30 93.90 95.10