22 July Daily technical trader


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22 July Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index ended the session in red for the second session in a row with a cut of around 66 points (-0.50%). The index reversed after reaching an intraday high of 13,168.63, as the bears took control over the bulls and pulled it below 13,100.0. The index is currently trading close to its immediate support near 13,080.0. We believe if the index manages to hold onto this level on a closing basis, it may attempt to rebound, or else it may retreat further to test the 13,000.0 level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback IQCD has been drifting down since the past two days after failing to move above the 55-day moving average. The stock developed a bearish candlestick pattern on daily charts, indicating continuation of this pullback. We believe the stock may drift down further and test QR175.50, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. However, a move above QR178.30 may attract buyers. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are pointing down. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term –Pullback The QERI Index declined for the second consecutive day and shed around 24 points (-0.54%) to settle near the 4,400.0 level. The index failed to make any further headway above 4,445.0 and retreated as the traders continued to book profits. We believe the bears may continue to dominate the bulls and drag the index lower until it reaches 4,445.0. However, a close above 4,445.0 may see the bulls back in action, pushing the index toward the 4,500.0 level. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback QIBK has been registering losses since topping the current rally at around QR110.0 and is moving along the descending trendline over the past few days. With both the momentum indicators looking weak, the preferred direction for QIBK seems to be on the downside. We believe the stock may continue to drift lower and test QR102.0. However, if buyers push the price above QR104.50, it may result in an upmove toward the QR107.0 level. Ooredoo: Short-Term – Pullback ORDS continued its decline and penetrated below its key support of QR134.20 yesterday. The stock is likely to drift down further toward the 21-day moving average. Any sustained weakness below the moving average may drag the stock to test the QR129.70 level. However, if the stock manages to reclaim QR134.20, it may provide some relief. Meanwhile, the negative slope on the RSI indicates that the stock is likely to correct from its current level. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Rebound GISS witnessed a gap-down opening and momentarily moved below the support of QR111.90, but later recovered and managed to close above it, which is a positive sign. Notably, volumes were also high, indicating the entry of potential buyers. We believe if the stock stays above QR111.90, it may attempt to bounce back. However, if the stock retreats below QR111.90, it may result in a pullback. Meanwhile, the MACD line is moving up in a bullish manner.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,089.96 UP UP 13,079.52 13,000.00 13,195.88 13,350.54 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,402.15 UP UP 4,380.84 4,341.24 4,444.85 4,528.58 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 55.00 UP UP 54.00 52.60 55.80 57.30 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.00 UP UP 69.50 68.30 70.70 71.80 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 58.80 UP DOWN 58.10 57.40 59.30 60.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 103.40 UP UP 102.00 100.00 104.50 107.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 86.00 UP UP 85.00 83.50 88.00 88.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 89.00 UP UP 88.90 87.30 90.00 91.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.25 UP DOWN 21.87 21.60 22.35 22.60 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 98.00 UP UP 96.50 95.00 99.00 100.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.50 UP UP 181.60 180.00 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 176.00 FLAT DOWN 175.50 173.00 178.30 180.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.00 DOWN DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 187.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 113.00 UP UP 111.90 109.00 116.00 119.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.00 DOWN DOWN 54.40 52.40 56.10 57.00 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 43.35 UP UP 43.20 42.50 43.80 45.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.70 UP UP 27.20 26.45 28.50 29.35 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 131.60 FLAT DOWN 129.70 128.00 134.20 136.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.55 UP UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.78 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.60 FLAT FLAT 23.60 23.00 24.12 24.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.20 FLAT FLAT 93.90 91.30 95.10 96.50