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QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index failed to ...
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - H...
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14 April Daily technical trader


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14 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index failed to make any further headway above 12,400.0 and slipped around 172 points (-1.39%) to close at 12,225.19. The index witnessed sustained selling once it breached 12,300.0 as bears were under full control. Traders may now watch out for the index’s immediate support near 12,217.0. If the index manages to cling onto this level it may attempt a move toward the 12,300.0 level. However, any retreat below the 12,217.0 level may trigger further selling. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Downmove KCBK breached its important support of QR22.49 after struggling to move above the QR22.90 level. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this downmove. With the RSI moving down and the MACD closing the signal line in a bearish manner it seems KCBK’s preferred direction is on the downside and may test QR21.80. However, a close above QR22.49 may halt its downmove. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index snapped its 13 consecutive day of gains and declined around 45 points (-1.11%) to close the session at 3,962.56. Bears finally managed to overpower the bulls and pulled the index down closer to its immediate support of 3,952.0. We believe if the index can stay above this level it may resume its rally and proceed ahead. On the flip side, if the index penetrates below the 3,952.0 level it may result in a further pullback and test the 3,900.0 level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove IQCD dipped below both the supports of the 21-day and the 55-day moving averages in a single swoop yesterday. Moreover, the stock has been moving along the descending trendline over the past few weeks. We believe until the stock trades below this bearish trendline the upmove seems to be in jeopardy and may continue to drift lower. Meanwhile, with both the indicators pointing down it seems IQCD may not hold onto QR181.40 and decline further to test QR178.30. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Downmove MARK penetrated below its support of QR43.50 on the back of large volumes, which is a negative sign. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bearish divergence, while the MACD is stalling from the rising mode. We believe that the stock may drift down and test its immediate support of QR42.45. Any sustained weakness below this level may pull the stock further down. However, if the stock manages to reclaim the QR43.50 level it may attract buyers. Commercial Bank of Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback CBQK failed to move above the QR70.0 level and reversed penetrating below its interim support of QR68.40 on the back of large volumes. We believe this strong breach of support has bearish implications and provides a downside target of QR65.75. Moreover, the RSI has shown a bearish divergence indicating that the stock may correct from the current level before its next move. However, a close above the QR68.40 level may resume its upmove.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,225.19 UP UP 12,216.75 12,100.00 12,300.00 12,400.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,962.56 UP UP 3,952.75 3,900.00 4,000.00 4,030.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 43.30 UP UP 42.45 42.00 43.50 45.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)* 67.20 UP UP 65.75 63.75 68.40 70.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.90 UP DOWN 59.23 58.20 63.30 64.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 79.00 UP UP 78.80 77.00 80.20 81.70 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 79.90 UP UP 79.72 77.30 81.50 83.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 73.00 UP UP 72.40 71.00 75.00 76.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.35 UP UP 21.80 21.50 22.49 22.90 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 77.40 UP UP 76.40 75.40 79.00 80.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 181.00 UP UP 175.00 164.00 182.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 181.80 DOWN DOWN 181.40 178.30 184.50 187.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.10 UP UP 180.00 178.20 185.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 90.00 UP UP 90.00 86.60 93.00 95.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 58.30 UP UP 58.00 56.20 61.30 64.80 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 36.70 UP UP 35.70 34.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.20 UP UP 22.00 21.69 22.38 22.66 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 148.00 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 13.80 UP UP 12.99 12.66 14.00 14.23 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.11 UP FLAT 20.90 20.50 21.15 21.83 Milaha (QNNS QD) 95.00 UP UP 93.00 91.10 96.50 98.40