6 April Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QE Index gained for the eighth straight session as it closed at a
new 52-week high at 11,983.87. However, the index was unable to
break the psychologically important 12,000 level, slipping back after
touching an intra-day high of 11,998.03. If the index is able to close
above the 12,000 level, it may march toward its next resistance level
of 12,100. On the other hand, if the index slips back from here, it has
an immediate support near the 11,916 level, and then at 11,900.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pullback
UDCD has been making lower highs-lower lows pattern on the charts
over the last few months. The stock closed near its resistance level of
QR21.00, but was unable to break it. If the stock slips from here, it
can fall down toward its support of QR20.70. However, investors
should exercise caution if the stock closes above its resistance level
of QR21.0. In such a scenario, investors should take a long position in
the stock, as it can move toward its next resistance of QR21.24.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index continued its uptrend, breaking above the
psychological level of 3,700 to close at 3,703.89, up 0.73%. The index
closed at the highest level of the day, suggesting further upside
strength in the index. The RSI is moving higher into the overbought
zone, while the MACD continues to diverge on the positive side.
Thus, with both indicators positive, we believe the index will continue
its bull trend. On the flip side, support is seen near the 3,763 level.
Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout
VFQS broke above its resistance of QR12.66 on Thursday supported
by good volumes, to close at QR12.94, up 3.6%. The MACD has
started to diverge from the signal line on the positive side, while the
RSI continues to trend higher into the overbought zone. The stock is
likely to continue its bullish trend and post further highs in the short-
term. On the flip side, investors should become cautious if the stock
closes below the QR12.66 level.
Doha Bank.: Short-Term – Downmove
DHBK has fallen over the last three trading sessions. The stock broke
below its support level of QR60.0 on Thursday, falling 2.45% on
strong volumes. Moreover, the stock closed at its intra-day low of
QR59.80, suggesting further weakness. The stock is likely to move
lower, with an immediate support provided by the 21-day moving
average (currently at QR59.28), below which the next support is at
QR58.20. On the flip side, resistance is seen at QR60.0.
Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Uptrend
KCBK has been on a strong uptrend over the last 2-3 weeks,
rebounding from the support of its 55-day moving average. The stock
gained 1.2% on Thursday to close at QR22.76, a new 5-year high.
The RSI and the MACD continue to indicate further strength in the
stock. The stock is likely to face resistance at QR23.05. On the flip
side, the stock has support at QR22.30, below which the next support
is seen at QR21.80.
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,983.87 UP UP 11,916.92 11,850.00 12,000.00 12,075.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,703.89 UP UP 3,663.53 3,590.13 3,730.00 3,750.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 41.35 UP UP 40.60 40.00 42.00 43.50
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.70 UP UP 63.67 61.67 66.10 68.10
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 59.80 UP DOWN 59.28 58.20 60.00 63.30
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 75.50 UP DOWN 72.80 71.50 75.00 76.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 75.30 UP UP 74.40 72.80 75.80 77.30
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 67.00 UP UP 65.68 64.00 66.90 67.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.76 UP UP 22.30 21.80 23.05 23.30
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 74.50 UP UP 71.40 69.00 74.00 74.80
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 162.20 FLAT UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 186.40 UP UP 183.43 181.50 187.50 190.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 177.50 UP UP 176.64 174.36 178.18 180.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 87.10 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 92.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.80 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 57.70
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.75 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 20.95 FLAT DOWN 20.70 20.50 21.00 21.24
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 141.90 UP DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 12.94 UP UP 12.66 12.25 13.00 13.20
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.62 FLAT DOWN 20.44 20.26 20.66 20.90
Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.40 FLAT FLAT 91.30 89.40 93.00 95.10