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28 April Daily technical trader
 

28 April Daily technical trader

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    28 April Daily technical trader 28 April Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript

    • Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback The QE index after testing the 12,950.0 level over the last three trading sessions, slipped -0.73% to close at 12,860.34. The index witnessed a strong opening, touching an intra-day high of 12,968.46, but was unable to hold on to its gains, as it quickly reversed and dipped below 12,900.0. With the RSI beginning to move lower, the index may continue to witness further profit-booking. On the downside, the index has support near the 12,770.0 level. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove VFQS has been experiencing sustained selling over the past few days and is moving along the descending trendline. We believe the upmove seems to be in jeopardy until the stock trades below this descending trendline and it may witness further selling pressure to test QR16.89. Meanwhile, the RSI is retreating from the overbought territory, while the MACD is closing the signal line from above indicating a likely correction. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback The QERI Index fell -0.89% to close at 4,237.60 declining for the third straight session. Moreover, the index breached its support near 4,248.0 as the bears overpowered the bulls. On the downside, the index has support near 4,200.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is showing signs of a decline, while the MACD is about to converge with the signal line into the negative territory. We believe the bears may continue to dominate the bulls until the index trades below 4,248.0. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Downmove BRES penetrated below the support of QR38.40 and has been in declining mode since topping the rally at QR40.10. Notably, volumes were also large on the decline which is negative sign. With both the momentum indicators pointing lower, it seems BRES may continue to drift lower and test its immediate support at QR37.40, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. However, if the stock manages to reclaim QR38.40 it may halt its downmove. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Downmove KCBK has been experiencing a steady decline over the past few days and continued to drift lower yesterday. We believe although the stock is trading close to its immediate support of QR22.90, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average it may cling onto it and move lower to test QR22.49. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving down toward the mid-line, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the negative territory, thus reinforcing our bearish outlook. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Breakout UDCD surged 7% & breached its resistances of QR25.29 and QR25.80 in a single swoop, tagging a new 52-week high. Moreover, the stock developed a long bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. The recent price action and spike in volumes suggest that the stock may advance further to test QR27.0. However, a dip below QR25.80 may pull the stock. Meanwhile, both the indicators are moving up in a bullish manner.
    • Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,860.34 UP UP 12,768.17 12,700.00 12,939.80 13,000.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,237.60 UP UP 4,200.00 4,148.08 4,247.34 4,301.50 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 48.20 UP UP 46.00 44.15 48.50 51.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.80 UP UP 68.40 65.75 69.80 72.67 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 66.50 UP UP 65.70 64.80 67.10 68.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 85.90 UP UP 84.70 81.70 87.30 88.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.20 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 98.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.00 UP UP 77.00 76.00 80.00 81.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.94 FLAT UP 22.90 22.49 23.23 23.49 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 87.10 UP UP 83.40 81.70 87.80 90.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 188.50 UP UP 185.00 183.00 190.00 195.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 184.50 UP FLAT 183.00 181.40 186.40 188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 184.00 UP UP 184.00 180.00 186.00 188.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 90.00 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 65.90 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 38.20 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.60 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 26.10 UP UP 25.80 25.29 27.20 28.12 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 145.60 DOWN UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 17.41 UP UP 16.89 16.00 17.99 19.29 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.97 UP UP 23.70 22.80 24.00 24.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 102.10 UP UP 100.10 98.30 104.90 106.00