23 April Daily technical trader

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23 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QE Index extended its spectacular run for the sixth straight session gaining around 172 points (1.34%) to close at a new all-time high of 12,939.80. The index for the first time breached the 12,800.0 and 12,900.0 psychological levels and continued its bullish momentum on the back of large buying interest. This indicates a bull market rally. Meanwhile, with both indicators growing bullish, the index could extend its rally tagging new highs. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove BRES surpassed its important resistance of QR37.40 on Monday and continued its rally moving above QR38.40 yesterday, tagging a new 52-week high. Notably, volumes were also large indicating rising buying interest. We believe the stock has strong momentum going in and may continue to march toward QR39.60. However, any retreat below QR38.40 may halt its upmove. The RSI is moving up, while the MACD is about to cross into the positive territory. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QERI Index continued its astonishing rally moving higher by 1.16%, registering fresh record highs. Notably, this is the index’s sixth consecutive day of gains thus signifying sustained strength in the upmove. We believe the index is in bull-run mode and may continue its strong momentum tagging new highs. Meanwhile, the index has support for a further higher move from the RSI, which is holding strongly in the overbought zone, while the MACD is in uptrend mode. Nakilat: Short-Term – Breakout QGTS surged around 8.60% and breached its resistances of QR22.80 and QR23.70 in a single swoop, tagging a new 52-week high. The recent price action and spike in volumes indicate that the stock may continue its rally toward QR24.80. If the stock manages to move above this level it may spark additional buying interest, which may push it to test QR25.70. Meanwhile, both indicators are pointing higher indicating a potential rally. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIBK cleared the resistances of QR87.30 and QR88.0 and tagged a new 52-week high. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and provides an upside target of QR90.70, followed by QR91.80. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are providing bullish signals, thus reinforcing our positive technical outlook. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Uptrend VFQS continued its bullish momentum and tagged fresh new highs. The stock has been in uptrend mode since moving above both the moving averages. Moreover, the stock has been witnessing aggressive rally over the past few days and may extend its rally, recording new highs. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving strongly in the overbought territory, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line in a bullish manner with no immediate reversal signs.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,939.80 UP UP 12,892.76 12,800.00 13,000.00 13,100.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,292.34 UP UP 4,247.34 4,200.00 4,330.00 4,350.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 49.95 UP UP 48.50 47.00 51.80 53.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.80 UP UP 68.40 65.75 70.00 71.50 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.90 UP UP 62.00 61.50 64.20 64.80 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 89.00 UP UP 88.00 87.30 90.70 91.80 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 86.30 UP UP 86.10 83.00 86.80 88.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.30 UP UP 76.00 74.80 78.50 80.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 25.85 UP UP 25.00 23.49 26.60 27.40 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 82.30 UP UP 81.70 79.00 83.40 85.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 180.80 UP UP 179.00 175.00 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 181.00 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.30 181.40 183.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 186.00 UP UP 184.00 180.00 188.00 190.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 89.00 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 69.00 UP UP 68.40 64.70 71.70 73.20 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 39.25 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.60 41.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.86 UP UP 24.25 23.33 25.29 26.20 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.90 UP UP 145.30 143.50 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 18.75 UP UP 17.99 17.00 19.30 20.50 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 24.30 UP UP 23.70 22.80 24.80 25.70 Milaha (QNNS QD) 98.90 UP UP 98.30 96.50 100.10 101.50

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