27 July Daily market report


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27 July Daily market report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 8 QE Intra-Day Movement Qatar Commentary The QE index declined 0.6% to close at 12,877.3. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Industrials indices, declining 3.3% and 0.6%, respectively. Top losers were Barwa Real Estate Co. and National Leasing, falling 6.8% and 6.3%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Medicare Group rose 3.1%, while Qatar Islamic Bank was up 2.6%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia was closed on July 31, 2014. Dubai: The DFM index gained 2.0% to close at 4,833.2. The Investment & Financial Services index gained 2.6%, while the Real Estate & Construction index rose 2.4%. Takaful Emarat - Insurance rose 7.6%, while Arabtec Holding was up 4.9%. Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index rose 1.0% to close at 5,055.0. The Real Estate index gained 4.4%, while the Banking index was up 1.7%. National Takaful Co. surged 14.0%, while Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank gained 5.8%. Kuwait: Kuwait was closed on July 31, 2014. Oman: Oman was closed on July 31, 2014. Bahrain: The BHB index gained 0.4% to close at 1,471.7. The Commercial Banking index rose 1.2%, while the Industrial index was up 0.4%. National Bank of Bahrain gained 6.0%, while Aluminium Bahrain was up 0.4%. Qatar Exchange Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Medicare Group 104.00 3.1 215.0 98.1 Qatar Islamic Bank 105.70 2.6 65.1 53.2 Dlala Brokerage & Inv. Holding Co. 54.00 1.9 34.3 144.3 Qatar Gas Transport Co. 23.80 1.7 197.3 17.5 Qatar Islamic Insurance Co. 84.00 1.7 16.6 45.1 Qatar Exchange Top Vol. Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Barwa Real Estate Co. 37.70 (6.8) 3,104.1 26.5 United Development Co. 28.40 1.6 1,033.8 31.9 Masraf Al Rayan 53.20 (0.7) 990.6 70.0 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 32.90 (0.2) 911.7 229.0 Ezdan Holding Group 20.26 1.3 831.9 19.2 Market Indicators 27 Jul 14 24 Jul 14 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) 473.1 812.8 (41.8) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 690,245.7 693,066.6 (0.4) Volume (mn) 11.3 18.2 (38.0) Number of Transactions 5,059 9,562 (47.1) Companies Traded 39 43 (9.3) Market Breadth 19:17 10:29 – Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 19,206.38 (0.6) (0.6) 29.5 N/A All Share Index 3,255.24 (0.5) (0.5) 25.8 15.7 Banks 3,142.21 (0.3) (0.3) 28.6 15.4 Industrials 4,276.81 (0.6) (0.6) 22.2 16.4 Transportation 2,229.34 (0.3) (0.3) 20.0 14.3 Real Estate 2,685.82 (3.3) (3.3) 37.5 13.8 Insurance 3,754.36 (0.3) (0.3) 60.7 11.9 Telecoms 1,577.47 0.1 0.1 8.5 22.3 Consumer 7,012.55 0.4 0.4 17.9 26.7 Al Rayan Islamic Index 4,295.02 (0.5) (0.5) 41.5 18.2 GCC Top Gainers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Nat. Bank of Bahrain Bahrain 0.89 6.0 3.9 28.1 Saudi Electricity Co. Saudi Arabia 17.42 5.8 13,590.5 19.7 Abu Dhabi Com. Bank Abu Dhabi 8.99 5.8 1,799.3 38.3 Bank Of Sharjah Abu Dhabi 1.85 5.7 139.2 3.4 Aldar Properties Abu Dhabi 3.77 5.0 10,239.8 36.6 GCC Top Losers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Barwa Real Estate Co. Qatar 37.70 (6.8) 3,104.1 26.5 Investbank Abu Dhabi 2.90 (6.5) 200.0 18.6 National Leasing Qatar 28.30 (6.3) 800.9 (6.1) Emirates Telecom Co. Abu Dhabi 11.50 (3.8) 3,069.8 (1.7) HSBC Bank Oman Oman 0.16 (3.6) 1,266.2 (8.0) Source: Bloomberg ( # in Local Currency) ( ## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index comprising of the top 200 regional equities based on market capitalization and liquidity) Qatar Exchange Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Barwa Real Estate Co. 37.70 (6.8) 3,104.1 26.5 National Leasing 28.30 (6.3) 800.9 (6.1) Qatar Navigation 89.70 (2.5) 30.0 8.1 Gulf Warehousing Co. 49.00 (2.4) 1.4 18.1 Qatar German Co. for Med. Dev. 13.65 (2.2) 125.6 (1.4) Qatar Exchange Top Val. Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% Barwa Real Estate Co. 37.70 (6.8) 115,498.4 26.5 Masraf Al Rayan 53.20 (0.7) 52,717.4 70.0 Mesaieed Petrochemical Holding 32.90 (0.2) 30,060.7 229.0 United Development Co. 28.40 1.6 29,108.3 31.9 Doha Bank 56.30 0.2 28,406.8 (3.3) Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 12,877.31 (0.6) (0.6) 12.1 24.1 129.95 189,610.5 15.8 2.1 3.9 Dubai 4,833.24 2.0 3.9 22.6 43.4 239.39 94,370.9 22.7 1.9 2.2 Abu Dhabi 5,054.95 1.0 2.1 11.1 17.8 48.84 139,170.4 13.7 1.8 3.3 Saudi Arabia 10,214.73 0.5 4.4 7.4 19.7 2,347.65 559,925.5 19.6 2.5 2.7 Kuwait 7,130.89 0.2 0.5 2.3 (5.5) 47.12 111,864.3 16.9 1.1 3.9 Oman 7,200.70 0.2 (0.0) 2.7 5.4 29.25 26,473.1 12.3 1.7 3.9 Bahrain 1,471.70 0.4 0.0 3.1 17.8 0.19 54,209.3 11.7 1.0 4.7 Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Exchange, Tadawul, MSM, Dubai Financial Market and Zawya (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any, Values as of last exchange closing day) 12,800 12,850 12,900 12,950 13,000 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
  2. 2. Page 2 of 8 Qatar Market Commentary  The QE index declined 0.6% to close at 12,877.3. The Real Estate and Industrials indices led the losses. The index fell on the back of selling pressure from Qatari shareholders despite buying support from non-Qatari shareholders.  Barwa Real Estate Co. and National Leasing were the top losers, falling 6.8% and 6.3%, respectively. Among the top gainers, Medicare Group rose 3.1%, while Qatar Islamic Bank was up 2.6%.  Volume of shares traded on Sunday fell by 38.0% to 11.3mn from 18.2mn on Thursday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 14.3mn, volume for the day was 21.3% lower. Barwa Real Estate Co. and United Development Co. were the most active stocks, contributing 27.6% and 9.2% to the total volume respectively. Source: Qatar Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Ratings, Earnings and Global Economic Data Ratings Updates Company Agency Market Type* Old Rating New Rating Rating Change Outlook Outlook Change BMI Bank (BMI) S&P Bahrain LT LIC/LT FIC/ST LIC BB+/BB+/B BB/BB/B  Stable – Al-Ahleia Insurance Co. (Al-Ahleia) S&P Kuwait FSR/LT LIC BBB+/BBB+ A-/A-  Stable – Source: News reports (* LT – Long Term, ST – Short Term, FSR- Financial Strength Rating, FCR – Foreign Credit Rating, LCR – Local Currency Rating, IDR – Issuer Default Rating, SR – Support Rating, LC – Local Currency, LIC – Local Issuer Credit, FIC – Foreign Issuer Credit) Earnings Releases Company Market Currency Revenue (mn)2Q2014 % Change YoY Operating Profit (mn) 2Q2014 % Change YoY Net Profit (mn) 2Q2014 % Change YoY Arabian Scandinavian Insurance Co. (ASCANA) Dubai AED 14.8 19.8% 2.3 -16.4% -5.9 NA Arabtec Holding Dubai AED 2,411.9 51.1% – – 102.4 10.8% Gulf Navigation Holding (GNH) Dubai AED 30.4 -22.8% 3.3 -41.2% 3.2 NA Ras Al Khaimah National Insurance Co. (RAK Insurance) Abu Dhabi AED 52.2 12.0% 8.5 -15.0% 5.5 -51.2% Ras Al Khaimah Co. for White Cement & Construction Materials (RAK White Cement) Abu Dhabi AED 111.9 0.4% – – 12.4 -26.8% United Insurance Co. (UIC) Abu Dhabi AED 37.1 74.0% -8.8 NA -7.1 NA Al Buhaira National Insurance Co. (ABNIC) Abu Dhabi AED 44.2 -2.2% 0.5 -90.1% 5.7 -22.6% Al Dhafra Insurance Co. Abu Dhabi AED 92.1 33.4% – – 6.8 -27.8% Gulf Livestock (GLS) Abu Dhabi AED 18.0 -14.3% – – 13.0 -27.8% Bahrain & Kuwait Insurance Co. (BKIC) Bahrain BHD 12.1 20.8% 0.7 -26.7% 0.7 -33.9% Delmon Poultry Co. (DEPCO) Bahrain BHD 2.8 -23.9% -0.1 NA 0.0 -98.4% BMMI Bahrain BHD 27.9 8.1% 2.9 25.3% 3.4 23.4% Source: Company data, DFM, ADX, MSM Global Economic Data Date Market Source Indicator Period Actual Consensus Previous 07/28 US Nat. Assoc. of Realtors Pending Home Sales MoM June -1.10% 0.50% 6.00% 07/28 US Nat. Assoc. of Realtors Pending Home Sales YoY June -4.50% -5.20% -6.90% 07/28 US US Treasury 3M High Yield Rate 28-July 0.03% – 0.03% 07/28 US US Treasury 3M Direct Accepted % 28-July 0.052 – 7.30% 07/28 US US Treasury 3M Bid/Cover Ratio 28-July 4.71 – 4.65 07/28 US US Treasury 3M Indirect Accepted % 28-July 0.282 – 25.30% 07/28 US US Treasury 6M Direct Accepted % 28-July 0.036 – 8.30% 07/29 US S&P/Case-Shiller S&P/CS Composite-20 YoY May 9.34% 9.90% 10.82% 07/29 US S&P/Case-Shiller S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index May 170.6 171.3 168.7 07/29 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index July 90.9 85.4 86.4 07/30 US MBA MBA Mortgage Applications 25-Jul -0.022 – 2.40% 07/31 US BLS Employment Cost Index 2Q2014 0.70% 0.50% 0.30% Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari 74.35% 76.01% (7,861,593.56) Non-Qatari 25.66% 24.00% 7,861,593.56
  3. 3. Page 3 of 8 07/31 US Bloomberg Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 27-July 36.3 – 37.6 07/31 US US DOE EIA Natural Gas Storage Change 25-July 88 92 90 07/30 EU European Commission Economic Confidence July 102.2 101.9 102.1 07/30 EU European Commission Industrial Confidence July -3.8 -4.3 -4.3 07/30 EU European Commission Services Confidence July 3.6 4.5 4.4 07/31 EU Eurostat Unemployment Rate June 11.50% 11.60% 11.60% 07/31 EU Eurostat CPI Estimate YoY July 0.40% 0.50% 0.50% 07/30 France INSEE Consumer Confidence July 86.0 86.0 86.0 07/31 France INSEE Consumer Spending MoM June 0.90% -0.40% 0.70% 07/31 France INSEE Consumer Spending YoY June 1.80% 0.40% -0.70% 07/31 France INSEE PPI MoM June 0.00% -0.10% -0.40% 07/31 France INSEE PPI YoY June 0.50% -0.10% 0.10% 07/29 Germany Destatis Import Price Index YoY June -1.20% -1.20% -2.10% 07/31 Germany Destatis Retail Sales MoM June 1.30% 1.00% -0.60% 07/31 Germany Destatis Retail Sales YoY June 0.40% 1.30% 1.90% 08/01 UK Markit Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA July 55.4 57.2 57.2 07/31 UK GfK NOP (UK) GfK Consumer Confidence July -2.0 2.0 1.0 08/01 Spain Markit Markit Spain Manufacturing PMI July 53.9 54.5 54.6 07/28 Italy ISTAT Business Confidence July 99.7 99.9 99.9 07/28 Italy ISTAT Economic Sentiment July 90.9 – 88.2 08/01 Italy Markit Markit/ADACI Italy Manufacturing PMI July 51.9 52.5 52.6 08/01 Italy Italian Treasury Budget Balance July -1.6B – 7.7B 08/01 Italy ANFIA New Car Registrations YoY July 0.0502 – 3.81% 07/28 China Nat. Bureau of Statistics Leading Index June 100.1 – 99.9 08/01 China Federation of Logistics Manufacturing PMI July 51.7 51.4 51.0 08/03 China Federation of Logistics Non-manufacturing PMI July 54.2 – 55.0 07/29 Japan METI Retail Trade YoY June -0.60% -0.50% -0.40% 07/29 Japan METI Retail Sales MoM June 0.40% 0.80% 4.60% Source: Bloomberg (s.a. = seasonally adjusted; n.s.a. = non-seasonally adjusted; w.d.a. = working day adjusted) News Qatar  QCB to issue T-bills worth QR4bn on August 5 – The Qatar Central Bank (QCB) will issue three-month treasury bills worth QR2bn, and six-month and nine-month T-bills worth QR1bn each. These bills will be issued on August 5, 2014. (QCB)  Qatar state spending up 13% in 2013/14, slowest in 11 years – According to the preliminary finance ministry data released by the central bank, Qatar’s public spending increased 12.7% last fiscal year, the lowest rate in 11 years, as slow growth in current expenditure offset a sharp rise in funds spent on infrastructure. Expenditure rose to a record high of QR231.7bn ($63.6bn) in the year that ended in March, from QR205.6bn in 2012/13. Last year’s spending was 10% more than initially planned. However, the margin by which actual spending overshot the plan was the lowest in five years, suggesting the government has begun to rein in excesses of the previous four years. Project spending soared 32.7% to QR68.4bn in 2013/14, as compared to just 1.9% growth in 2012/13. Current expenditure rose 6.0% to QR163.2bn in 2013/14, a sharp slowdown from a 24.4% jump in each of the previous two years, because of a drop in interest payments and spending on supplies and services. State revenue grew 21.9% to a record QR346.6bn last fiscal year, slower than the 27.8% rise in the previous year. Further, the 2013/14 budget surplus surged to a record QR115.0bn (15.6% of GDP), from QR78.8bn (11.4% of GDP) in the previous year. (Gulf-Times.com)  ORDS launches Myanmar telecom network – Ooredoo (ORDS) has launched its telecommunications services in Myanmar. The company will take on two rivals who are also rolling out networks in a country that has only 10% mobile penetration. More than 90 companies and consortia submitted expressions of interest after the government issued a tender for the two licenses in 2013. ORDS’ voice & 3G internet services will initially be available in Myanmar's three main cities of Yangon, Mandalay and the capital, Naypyitaw. The network will cover 25mn of Myanmar's approximately 60mn people by the end of 2014 and 97% of the population within five years. (Reuters)  ZHCD reports QR100.87mn net profit in 1H2014 – Zad Holding Company (ZHCD) reported a net profit of QR100.87mn in 1H2014 as compared to QR90.39mn in 1H2013. The Company’s EPS amounted to QR4.68 in 1H2014 versus QR4.20 in 1H2013. (QE)  Doha hotels see highest occupancy in three years – According to a MENA chain hotels market review, hotels in Doha recorded the highest occupancy levels over the last three years. The latest HotStats survey commented on by TRI Hospitality Consulting Middle East found that average occupancy at four and five-star hotels in Doha reached 76.7% in May 2014, rising 11.2% YoY. This rate is expected to move up further in the coming next months. Despite a decline in average room rates (ARR) of 4.1% to $222.19, the growth in demand drove revenue per available room (RevPAR) up 12.2% to $170.48. Coupled with an increased performance in the rooms department, the 15.6% rise in total RevPAR was supported by the double-digit growth in Food & Beverages revenues, which comprised 47.5% of the total revenues. Strong top-line performance in conjunction with the 2.1% drop in payroll costs boosted profitability levels by 23.1% during the month to $184.78. (Peninsula Qatar)  Qatar’s drinking water security plans get a boost – Qatar’s plans to achieve drinking water security have made progress
  4. 4. Page 4 of 8 with French building materials company Saint Gobain PAM signing two deals worth €200mn to supply pipes for five mega- reservoirs in the country. The contracts involve the supply of large diameter pipes, fittings and valves, which will be manufactured in France. These contracts are part of the ‘Security Mega Reservoirs’ project managed by Qatar General Electricity & Water Corporation (Kahramaa), which aims to provide the country with seven days’ emergency supply of drinking water. (Gulf-Times.com)  Atkins named lead designer for Doha Metro line – A consortium of contractors that is delivering the Doha Metro Gold Line in Qatar on behalf of Qatar Railways Company has appointed Atkins as the lead designer for the project. The consortium comprises Greek contractor Aktor, Turkey-based Yapi Merkezi and STFA, India-based Larsen & Toubro and a local company, Al Jaber Engineering. The line involves construction of a 32 kilometer tunnel with six boring machines as well as delivery of 13 underground stations. The total capital cost of the project is more than £2.5bn, while Atkins’ design role is worth around £80mn over the next couple of years. (Bloomberg)  CB&I, Chiyoda win FEED contract for QP-led Texas LNG facility – CB&I and Chiyoda Corporation have been awarded a front end engineering design (FEED) services contract for a proposed LNG export project near the Texas coast in the US. The project is being run by Golden Pass Products (GPP), a joint venture between affiliates of Qatar Petroleum International (QPI), ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips, where QPI holds a 70% stake followed by Exxon’s 17.6% and ConocoPhillips’ 12.4%. The FEED contract will be carried out on the three-train 15.6mn tons-per-annum (mtpa) capacity GPP LNG liquefaction export facility, where each train will be capable of producing 5.2 mtpa. (Bloomberg) International  US job growth cools, unemployment rate rises; Jobs data bolsters Yellen's argument on labor market slack – Job growth in the US slowed a bit in July 2014 while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, pointing to slack in the labor market that could give the Federal Reserve some room to keep interest rates low for a while. The Labor Department said non-farm payrolls increased 209,000 last month after surging by 298,000 in June. Economists had expected a 233,000 job gain. Although job growth was below expectations, July marked the sixth straight month when employment expanded by more than 200,000, a signal of strength last seen in 1997. In addition, data for May and June was revised to show 15,000 more jobs created than previously reported. The one tenth of a percentage point increase in the unemployment rate to 6.2% came as more people entered the labor market, an indication of confidence in job prospects. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve has made a big bet that recovery of the labor market is a long way from creating a worrisome surge in inflation. A range of economic data suggested the Fed has been reading the odds well. While more jobs were created for the sixth straight month, wages were about flat in the private sector and there was little improvement in America's blight of long-term unemployment. That supported Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen's view that a sharp drop in the unemployment rate over the last year has masked substantial weakness in the labor market. That could give Yellen room to keep interest rates at rock-bottom levels well into next year. (Reuters)  Falling prices on radar as Eurozone inflation drops again – Data from the EU’s statistics office Eurostat showed that annual inflation in the Eurozone fell in July to its lowest since the height of the financial crisis in 2009, keeping the risk of deflation on policymakers' radar. The slowdown to 0.4%, coming amid subdued wage pressures despite a fall in unemployment to a near two-year low, will fuel concerns of a possible broad fall in prices across the 18-nation bloc. However, much of the decline in inflation was down to a sharp fall in volatile energy prices, and the European Central Bank is still waiting to assess the impact of a batch of measures it presented in June to pep up a fragile economic recovery. Eurostat’s data showed consumer prices rose at their lowest annual rate since October 2009 when they fell by 0.1%. Core inflation (excluding energy, food, tobacco and alcohol costs) was unchanged at 0.8% for the second month in a row. Energy prices fell 1.0% on the year. (Reuters)  Argentine default to hit Brazil factories, Uruguay resorts – Argentina's debt default threatens to worsen trade tensions in South America, adding to the economic woes of Brazil in a tense election year and causing headaches in Uruguay, just as the Argentine economy looks to plunge deeper into recession. Brazilian exporters are reckoning lower sales, while hotels and other tourist attractions in Uruguay are bracing for a slow summer season after Argentina's refusal to pay holdout bondholders. The default is likely to hurt Argentine purchasing power because inflation, already running above 30%, is heading higher. The pain will be acute in the automotive industry: Brazil, the region's biggest economy, sends about 90% of its car exports to Argentina, while Uruguay ships about 60% across the River Plate to its southwestern neighbor. (Reuters)  IMF: Japan's economy faces risks with reform agenda, debt – The International Monetary Fund said Japan's economic risks over the medium term are tilted to the downside, since the government could fail to deliver the additional reforms needed to lift potential growth and pare public debt. The IMF said Prime Minister Shinzo Abe needs to go beyond the second installment of his growth strategy, and take even bolder steps to increase the labor supply while loosening regulations in the services sector. The Bank of Japan does not need to ease monetary policy again now as prices for a broader number of goods are rising, but the central bank should be ready to increase risk asset purchases quickly if growth weakens. IMF further added that if the Japanese government does not produce the needed reforms, this could overburden its monetary policy, cause undue strength in the yen and complicate an exit from quantitative easing. (Reuters)  China PMIs jump to multi-month highs in July; PBoC signals no broad monetary easing – Two surveys showed factories in China posted their strongest growth in at least 1-1/2 years as new orders surged to multi-month highs in July, cementing hopes that the economy is regaining momentum after a spate of stimulus measures. The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) issued by the government climbed to a 27-month high of 51.7 in July, beating forecasts for 51.4. A separate PMI published by HSBC/Markit also rose to 51.7, its best performance in 18 months. Analysts welcomed the data as a sign that the world's second-biggest economy is reviving after a rocky spell prompted authorities to launch a volley of support measures, including increasing bank lending to spur growth. Now that the looser monetary policy is having its intended effect, some analysts questioned the need for more economic stimulus in China, at least in the near term. The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) warned the country’s credit and money supply have increased rapidly and indicated that it will refrain from broader monetary easing to support growth. PBoC further added that the country’s existing money supply and credit are already relatively large and their growth is also high. The PBOC reiterated its prudent monetary-policy stance and pledged to keep overall
  5. 5. Page 5 of 8 liquidity stable while improving its structure. (Reuters) (Bloomberg)  India's demands block $1tn WTO deal on customs rules – The World Trade Organization failed to reach a deal to standardize customs rules on Thursday, which would have been the first global trade reform in two decades, due to India's demands for concessions on agricultural stockpiling. The deadline passed without a breakthrough. WTO ministers had already agreed the global reform of customs procedures known as "trade facilitation" in December 2013, but it needed to be put into the WTO rule book by July 31, 2014. Most diplomats saw that as a formality in the WTO's 19-year successful history, which according to some estimates would add $1tn and 21mn jobs to the world economy. Trade experts say Thursday's failure is likely to end the era of trying to cobble together global trade agreements and to accelerate efforts by smaller groups of like- minded nations to liberalize trade among themselves. India has been vocal in opposing such moves, making its veto even more surprising. India had insisted that, in exchange for signing the trade facilitation agreement, it must see more progress on a parallel pact giving it more freedom to subsidize and stockpile food grains than is allowed by WTO rules. (Reuters) Regional  QNB Group: GCC projects underpin sustainable development – According to a report released by QNB Group (QNBK), projects underpin GCC countries’ sustainable development and diversification, driven by higher capital expenditure. QNBK said that GCC countries have grown strongly in recent years. High hydrocarbon prices and increased oil & gas production in some countries have boosted national incomes and provided governments with large surpluses. These countries have used their sizeable surpluses to finance large projects with the aim of diversifying their economies and creating additional pockets of growth. As a result, the contribution of the non-hydrocarbon sector to growth has increased in recent years, and is currently the main driver of growth. A significant part of investments are going into infrastructure projects such as the building of new cities, transport networks, real estate and power and water stations. This is partially to accommodate the region’s growing population, but mainly to create infrastructure that enables the private sector to play a bigger role in the economy. In the long run, the dynamism of the private sector is expected to drive growth with the government focusing on creating the right environment to encourage that process. (Gulf-Times.com)  Reuters: OPEC output in July rises on fragile Libyan rebound – According to a Reuters survey, OPEC’s oil production rose in July from June, as a fragile recovery in Libyan supply outweighed fighting in Iraq and reduced output from Angola. Despite the increase, unrest in Africa and the Middle East is still weighing down on supply. That could hinder OPEC’s ability to boost output later in 2014, when the International Energy Agency expects demand for OPEC crude to rise. As per Reuters survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, supply from the OPEC has averaged 30.06mn bpd in July, up from 29.92mn bpd in June. (Gulf- Times.com)  GWTC: MENA becomes fastest growing wellness tourism market – According to the Global Wellness Tourism Congress (GWTC), the MENA region is the fastest growing wellness tourism market in the world, growing at 16% annually. GWTC forecasted that the MENA market will more than triple by 2017, whereas the UAE will become the number one and the growth leader across entire region. The MENA wellness tourism market is worth $5.3bn annually (domestic and international combined). Moreover, the MENA region drives 4.8mn wellness-focused trips (inbound and domestic) annually. Luxury wellness tourism is already a $439bn market and is set to grow to $678.5bn by 2017. (GulfBase.com)  Dow awards EPC contract for Saudi water project – The Dow Chemical Company has awarded Fluor Corporation the engineering, procurement & construction (EPC) contract for its reverse osmosis (RO) manufacturing facility in Saudi Arabia. Located in Jubail Industrial City II at the Sadara Chemical Company complex, the facility will manufacture high-tech RO elements that purify water for drinking and industrial uses. Expected to be ready by the end of 2015, the facility will supply the local Saudi Arabian market as well as the wider Middle East & Africa region and markets with similar critical water needs, including Eastern Europe, India, China and South East Asia. (GulfBase.com)  SAMA net foreign assets reach SR2.737tn in June 2014 – The Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency’s (SAMA) net foreign assets fell to SR2.737tn in June 2014 from a record high of SR2.744tn in May 2014. The assets were up 7.0% from June 2013, the lowest rate of increase since May 2010. The Kingdom’s M3 money supply growth edged up to 12.3% YoY in June from a five-month low of 12.1% in May. Bank lending growth to the private sector was also slightly up at 12.3% in June from 12.0% in May. (GulfBase.com)  BMI: Saudi oil output to stay high – According to a report by Business Monitor International (BMI), Saudi Arabia’s crude oil production will remain elevated by historical standards in 2014 and 2015. The outlook for gas remains tight despite ambitious plans to tap unconventional resources. BMI holds that rising consumption and faltering supplies may see the Kingdom seriously consider imports. The report additionally forecasted that Saudi oil reserves will rise to as much as 273bn barrels by 2017, but will fall to 265bn barrels by the end of 2023. The country has maintained high levels of oil production and exports by historical standards in 1H2014. BMI views that the crude oil and lease condensates production will remain at current levels throughout 2014. This will ensure production of approximately 9.78bn bpd for 2014, a 1% YoY increase, but lower than the record production year of 2012. Oil production in 2015 is set for a slight decline, at approximately 9.8mn bpd. (GulfBase.com)  CS: Saudi Arabia to become 7th largest emerging market by 2030 – Credit Suisse (CS) has forecasted that Saudi Arabia will emerge as the seventh largest emerging capital market by 2030, with the country’s equity market growing to be the sixth largest emerging market from the current 10th position. According to CS estimates, Saudi Arabia would account for the second largest share of emerging ECM deal fees ($5.5bn) over the next 17 years. As a market with high retail ownership and a strong equity culture among high net worth individuals, secondary activity in equities should also prove to be a significant source of revenue, with average daily traded value expected to grow from $1.8bn currently to $16.4bn by 2030. The high forecast growth rate observed for Saudi Arabia would be consistent with a potential liberalization of the country’s markets, when the SAMA proceeds ahead with a reform package to open its bourse to direct foreign participation, thus creating significant additional external demand for Saudi assets. (GulfBase.com)  SPOL selects Tegile for storage solution – Saudi Petroleum Overseas Limited (SPOL), the London office of the national oil company, has chosen Tegile Systems to provide a new storage solution. SPOL has implemented Tegile’s Zebi HA2100 arrays to
  6. 6. Page 6 of 8 consolidate its storage solution, and ensure the safety of its email and intranet data. (GulfBase.com)  Al Maya Group opens new supermarket in Abu Dhabi – Al Maya Group said that the company has extended its reach in Abu Dhabi by opening its fourth supermarket in the country’s capital and the first on Al Reem Island, which is a residential, commercial and business project. (Gulf-Base.com)  Sharjah mandates banks for debut Sukuk – The Emirate of Sharjah has appointed HSBC, the National Bank of Abu Dhabi and Standard Chartered to manage its debut Sukuk transaction. Sharjah Islamic Bank and the investment banking arm of Kuwait Finance House, KFH Financial, are also mandated on the deal. The transaction could happen as early as September 2014. (Reuters)  Dubai World seeks to revise $25bn debt deal – Economic recovery in Dubai is pushing both creditors and debtors to weigh new strategies in the $25bn restructuring of state-owned Dubai World, one of the Middle East’s largest ever debt deals. The conglomerate has begun talks to adjust its restructuring plan originally signed in 2011. It would make its first big repayment early, in exchange for more time before a second and much larger obligation needs to be repaid. At the same time, some foreign banks are seeking to divest parts of their exposure to Dubai World as improved confidence in the Emirate raises debt values to levels, which make offloading favorable. (Gulf- Times.com)  Emirates NBD trims loan growth forecast despite bumper 2Q2014 profit – Emirates NBD has trimmed its 2014 loan growth forecast after reporting an estimate-beating 34.8% jump in its 2Q2014 net profit. Emirates NBD expects to see its lending grow by 4-5% in 2014. This is down from the 7-8% that the bank forecasted at the start of 2014. ENBD said that this change is made considering current lending levels and the intense competition in the market. ENBD’s total loans grew just 1.4% since the end of 2013. Emirates NBD raised its forecast for net interest margin (NIM) to 2.7 to 2.8% from 2.5 to 2.6%. NIMs had stabilized around their current level of 2.77%, despite competitive pressures, enabling the bank to revise up its guidance. (Gulf-Times.com)  Dubai industrial rents up in 1H2014 – Dubai industrial rents were up strongly in 1H2014 as compared to 1H2013. In fact, rental values in seven districts experienced double-digit growth, with class 2 buildings in Dubai Investments Park (47%), Jebel Ali (39%) and Ras Al Khor (36%) performing especially well. Rents for class 1 buildings were up 29%, 12% and 9% in Dubai Investment Park, JAFZA and Al Quoz, respectively. However, due to the limited availability of stock, industrial rental value growth was fairly muted at 1% QoQ between April and June 2014. Strong growth in Dubai’s retail sector was primarily responsible for stimulating demand for warehouse and distribution facilities. However, since good quality buildings remain in short supply, some occupiers are finding themselves settling for units of lesser quality. Enquiries from food & beverage distributors in onshore locations nearly doubled in 1H2014 as firms sought to consolidate their operations into single hub locations. Partly as a result of this shift, a majority of enquiries were for units sized 100,000 sq ft or above. Moreover, development activity has surged in Al Quoz, Ras Al Khor and Rashidiya as older buildings in these areas reach the end of their lifecycle. However, with plots typically sized between 30,000 square feet and 50,000 square feet, they are likely to be too small to meet larger occupiers’ needs. (GulfBase.com)  EHS, SP Group & ModCon form consortium – Eurohealth Systems (EHS), Shapoorji Pallonji Group (SP Group) and Modular Concepts Electro Mechanical (ModCon) have formed a consortium to transform service delivery aiming to provide investors with comprehensive and professional service in creating global world-class healthcare facilities. The partnership will jointly provide a comprehensive range of services from providing feasibility studies to market research, hospital consultancy and strategizing, medical planning, design & construction, medical engineering planning & equipment installation, manpower sourcing, IT infrastructure planning & solutions and facility commissioning. The coordinated delivery team of the three corporates would work upon the principles of integrated project delivery (IPD), driven on a plan, design, build and operate model. (GulfBase.com)  Damac to list shares on Dubai bourse – Dubai developer Damac is offering investors the option of converting its global depositary receipts (GDRs), listed on the London bourse, into ordinary shares that would be listed on Dubai Financial Market (DFM). Investors would get around 23.08 shares per GDR. They have until September 2, 2014 to decide on the offer. No new shares would be listed and Executive Chairman Hussain Sajwani would continue to hold 85% of the company. (Reuters)  Emaar malls unit set for AED9bn DFM flotation mid- September – Emaar Properties will float its malls division on the Dubai Financial market (DFM) in an AED9bn initial public offering (IPO) by mid-September 2014. Advisers to the IPO say about 25% of the business will be put up for sale on the local market, increasing the capitalization of the DFM by about 10% at a stroke and enhancing the liquidity of Dubai’s main market for retail investors. Emaar has hired seven investment banks — including big American institutions such as JP Morgan, Bank of America and Morgan Stanley — to market the IPO to international investors, and four banks with a big regional presence, including Emirates NBD and National Bank of Abu Dhabi, to act as bookrunners for the issue. Rothschild is the main financial adviser to the flotation. (Bloomberg)  Alitalia fixes date for Etihad deal – Italy's transport minister said Italian airline Alitalia is due to clinch a tie-up deal with Abu Dhabi's Etihad on August 8. Italy's government is keen to sell a 49% stake in the Rome-based company to the Abu Dhabi airline and conclude talks which have dragged on for more than seven months. (Reuters)  Watania agrees to sell stake to Gulf investors – National Takaful Company (Watania) said that its majority shareholders have agreed to sell stakes to strategic investors from the Gulf region, but did not name the selling or buying parties. Watania said the deal was subject to regulatory approvals. It did not disclose the value of the deal, nor the size of the stake being sold. Watania's shareholders include Abu Dhabi Investment Council, Ajman Bank and Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company, all holding around 15.75% of the firm. (ADX, GulfBase.com)  ADFD provides AED61bn loans & grants by 2Q2014 – The total value of the grants and loans provided by the Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD) by the end of 2Q2014 reached AED61bn. This includes AED27.7bn short and long-term loans, and AED41bn provided as government grants. The fund has so far financed 416 development projects in 69 countries around the world, reflecting its continuing commitment in playing an effective role in alleviating poverty in developing countries, and setting them on a development path. In the Arab world, ADFD has provided more than AED54bn to finance projects in Bahrain, Oman, Jordan, Palestine, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, Sudan, Algeria, Mauritania, Tunisia, Lebanon, Somalia, Djibouti, and the Comoros Islands. In Asia, ADFD has financed projects worth
  7. 7. Page 7 of 8 AED3.691bn in Indonesia, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, Mongolia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and the Maldives. (GulfBase.com)  British Safety Council signs partnership deal with OSHAD – The British Safety Council has signed a partnership agreement with Abu Dhabi’s Environment, Health and Safety Center (OSHAD) to share best practices in the management of occupational health and safety and to help the Emirate to raise awareness among employers and workers of the social and business benefits of well-managed health and safety. Under the agreement, the British Safety Council will share its and its members’ knowledge and expertise of the systems and arrangements that lead to excellent health and safety performance. (AMEInfo)  CBO: Broad money rises 15.7% to OMR13bn in May 2014 – According to statistics released by the Central Bank of Oman (CBO), broad money (M2) increased by 15.7% to OMR13.0bn in May 2014, as compared to OMR11.3bn in May 2013. Meanwhile, narrow money (M1), comprising currency held by the public and local currency demand deposits, expanded 27% to OMR4.6bn at the end of May 2014. Quasi money, which includes RO savings and time deposits, certificates of deposits issued by commercial banks, margin deposits and foreign currency denominated deposits, increased by 10.3% to OMR8.4bn in May 2014, compared to OMR7.6bn in the previous year. The key drivers of monetary expansion during this period were the increase in domestic assets of the banking system by 21%, followed by the rise in net foreign assets by 12%. Further, CBOs policy interest rate for absorption of surplus liquidity in the form of CBO CDs of 28 days maturity marginally declined to 0.126% in May 2014 from 0.130% in May 2013. (Gulf- Base.com)  BHB announces increase in GHF paid-up capital – The Bahrain Bourse (BHB) announced that the paid-up capital of Gulf Finance House (GFH) has been increased due to the issuance of 83,928,571 shares, pursuant to the approval from the EGM held on April 14, 2014, and this will be effective August 3, 2014. The previous total outstanding shares were 3,274,088,830 & the new outstanding shares are 3,358,017,401, whereas the previous total paid-up capital was $1.007bn and the new total paid up capital is $1.033bn. (Bahrain Bourse)  BMMI’s BoD approves 20% dividend for 2014 – BMMI’s board of directors has approved the distribution of 20% interim cash dividend (20 fils per share) for the year 2014. The shareholders registered on the books as of August 3, 2014 will be eligible for the dividend distribution. (Bahrain Bourse)  Alba’s BoD approves 12% dividend for 2014 – Aluminum Bahrain’s (Alba) board of directors has approved the distribution of 12% semi-annual cash dividend (12 fils per share) for the year 2014. The shareholders registered on the books as of August 3, 2014 will be eligible for the dividend distribution. (Bahrain Bourse)  Batelco’s BoD approves 10% dividend for 2014 – Bahrain Telecommunications Company’s (Batelco) board of directors has approved the distribution of 10% interim cash dividend (10 fils per share) for the year 2014. The shareholders registered on the books as of July 25, 2014 will be eligible for the dividend distribution. (Bahrain Bourse)  GIB posts $50mn net income in 1H2014 – Gulf International Bank (GIB) reported a consolidated net income after tax of $50.2mn for 1H2014, as compared to $60.6mn in 1H2013. Net income after tax in 2Q2014 stood at $21.1mn. Total income was at $134.4mn, 4% up YoY, with YoY increases recorded in all income categories except foreign exchange income and trading income. Net interest income was $76.6mn for 1H2014. The YoY increase in net interest income principally reflected further increases in both loan volumes and loan margins. Consolidated total assets stood at $22.9bn in 1H2014, 8% higher than the 2013-end. Loans & advances amounted to $8.2bn, standing marginally lower than at the 2013-end, reflecting the maturity of legacy transactional-based long-term project and structured finance facilities. There was a further improvement in the bank’s funding profile in 1H2014 with a $0.9bn increase in customer deposits. (Gulf-Base.com)
  8. 8. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 8 of 8 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 180.0 190.0 200.0 210.0 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 QE Index S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC 0.5% (0.6%) 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 1.0% 2.0% (1.2%) (0.6%) 0.0% 0.6% 1.2% 1.8% 2.4% SaudiArabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman AbuDhabi Dubai Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D% WTD% YTD% Gold/Ounce 1,293.33 0.8 (1.1) 7.3 DJ Industrial 16,493.37 (0.4) (2.8) (0.5) Silver/Ounce 20.33 (0.3) (2.0) 4.4 S&P 500 1,925.15 (0.3) (2.7) 4.2 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) 104.84 (1.1) (3.3) (5.4) NASDAQ 100 4,352.64 (0.4) (2.2) 4.2 Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.75 0.1 (1.0) (13.7) STOXX 600 331.91 (1.2) (2.9) 1.1 LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 100.38 (1.0) (3.9) (20.5) DAX 9,210.08 (2.1) (4.5) (3.6) LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 115.75 (1.8) (3.5) (15.2) FTSE 100 6,679.18 (0.8) (1.7) (1.0) Euro 1.34 0.3 (0.0) (2.3) CAC 40 4,202.78 (1.0) (3.0) (2.2) Yen 102.61 (0.2) 0.8 (2.6) Nikkei 15,523.11 (0.6) 0.4 (4.7) GBP 1.68 (0.4) (0.9) 1.6 MSCI EM 1,060.13 (0.5) (1.7) 5.7 CHF 1.10 0.3 (0.1) (1.4) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,185.30 (0.7) 2.8 3.3 AUD 0.93 0.2 (0.9) 4.4 HANG SENG 24,532.43 (0.9) 1.3 5.3 USD Index 81.30 (0.2) 0.3 1.6 BSE SENSEX 25,480.84 (1.6) (2.5) 20.4 RUB 35.79 0.3 1.8 8.9 Bovespa 55,902.87 0.1 (3.3) 8.5 BRL 0.44 0.2 (1.3) 4.7 RTS 1,212.74 (0.5) (2.7) (15.9) 185.0 158.4 142.7