9 July Daily technical trader


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9 July Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE index moved higher for the second consecutive session and rose around 167 points (1.35%) to close near 12,550.0. The index witnessed an impressive rally as it breached the 12,400.0 and 12,500.0 levels, along with the 21-day moving average in a single swoop. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and the index may rally further toward 12,600.0- 12,650.0. Conversely, 12,500.0 may provide an immediate support. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Upmove MCGS gained 2.24% and cleared the resistances of the 55-day moving average and QR86.0 in a single trading session on the back of large volumes. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and provides an upside target of QR87.80, followed by QR89.80. However, a retreat below QR86.0 may halt its upmove. Meanwhile, the RSI is in the buy zone, while the MACD is diverging away in a positive manner, indicating a higher move. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI index extended its gains for the third consecutive session and rallied 1.72% to settle near the 4,200.0 mark. Bulls completely dominated the session as the index cleared both the 21-day moving average and the 4,150.0 level in a single trading session. Looking ahead, traders should watch out for a test of 4,250.0. However, a retreat below 4,150.0 may result in a pullback. Meanwhile, both the indicators support a likely higher move. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Uptrend GISS breached the resistance of QR100.0 and rallied around 2.02%, tagging a new high. Further, the stock has been registering strong gains over the past few days and is in an uptrend mode. We believe the stock may continue its bullish momentum to record new highs. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on QR100.0 for any reversal signs. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are moving in a bullish manner, indicating strength. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upmove MARK advanced 3.59% and surpassed both the resistances of the 21-day moving average and QR51.0 in a single swoop, after consolidating over the past few days. Notably, volumes were also high, which is a positive sign. We believe, based on the current bullish move, the stock may clear the 55-day moving average, targeting QR52.60. However, a dip below QR51.0 may drag the stock. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIBK continued its rally and moved above the resistance of QR93.90 for the first time since May. The stock is current sitting exactly on its immediate resistance of QR96.0. With both the momentum indicators pointing upward, we believe QIBK’ preferred direction is on the upside. Thus, traders may consider buying the stock at the current level and on declines up to QR95.0 for a target of QR98.40 with a stop loss of QR93.90.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,549.28 UP DOWN 12,513.65 12,465.50 12,678.84 12,768.17 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,196.54 UP DOWN 4,148.08 4,100.00 4,211.12 4,247.34 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 52.00 UP FLAT 51.00 49.75 52.60 54.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.80 UP DOWN 64.92 63.67 66.30 67.40 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 57.40 DOWN DOWN 56.50 55.80 57.40 58.10 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 96.00 UP UP 95.00 93.90 98.30 99.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.80 UP DOWN 83.50 81.70 85.00 86.10 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 82.40 UP UP 81.40 80.00 82.50 83.90 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.16 UP DOWN 22.00 21.87 22.35 22.60 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 86.90 UP UP 86.00 85.10 87.80 89.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 175.00 UP DOWN 173.89 164.00 179.00 180.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 176.00 DOWN DOWN 174.90 173.90 178.30 180.10 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.80 DOWN DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 185.20 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 101.00 UP UP 100.00 98.00 101.50 103.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.50 DOWN DOWN 56.10 54.40 57.00 60.60 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 39.50 UP UP 39.20 38.40 40.10 41.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.86 UP UP 24.75 24.00 25.30 26.00 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 130.00 DOWN DOWN 128.00 125.80 130.00 133.90 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 18.32 FLAT FLAT 18.00 17.70 18.75 19.30 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.00 DOWN DOWN 21.80 21.45 22.19 22.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.40 UP FLAT 93.10 92.00 95.10 96.50