9 April Daily Technical Trader


Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

9 April Daily Technical Trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index finally witnessed profit-booking after gaining over the last ten consecutive trading sessions. The index found support near the 12,100.0 level, and rebounded from its day’s low to close at 12,189.69, down 0.22%. Nevertheless, the index remains in strong short-term and long-term uptrend mode. The QE Index is likely to face short-term resistance near 12,220.0, while support is seen near 12,100.0. A move below it can pull the index to test 11,990.0. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Bounce Back IQCD held on to its support of the ascending trendline, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average and rebounded after witnessing a steady decline over the past few days. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto support of the 55-day moving average it may stand a chance of advancing toward QR187.50. However, any retreat below the 55-day moving average may result in bearish implications and may drag the stock to test the QR181.40 level. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QERI index pulled back after a strong opening, but managed to close the day in the green, up 0.27% at 3,851.32. Although the trend remains bullish, the RSI has flattened after yesterday’s session, indicating weakening momentum. The index has resistance near 3,880.0, while the short-term support is seen close to the 3,830.0 level. Notably, this was the index’s eleventh straight day of gains. We believe the index might see some short-term correction. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Pullback QIGD tagged a new all-time high of QR64.80, but was not able to hold onto to its gains and reversed penetrating below the support of QR61.30. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish engulfing candle pattern indicating a continuation of this pullback. We believe the stock may drift down further and test its immediate support of QR58.0. Meanwhile, the RSI has provided a bearish divergence, while the MACD is stalling from the rising mode indicating a likely correction. Medicare Group: Short-Term – Uptrend MCGS continued its strong uptrend and tagged a new all-time high yesterday on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been in uptrend mode since moving above the 21-day moving average and is showing no immediate trend reversal signs. With both momentum indicators looking strong, we believe MCGS may continue to move higher tagging new highs. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on QR76.40 for any reversal signs. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove VFQS continued to move down yesterday after witnessing a reversal on Tuesday thus providing a confirmation of this downmove. Meanwhile, with the RSI showing signs of a retreat from the overbought territory, it appears that the stock may drift down further and test QR12.99. Any sustained weakness below this level may pull the stock further down to test the QR12.66 level. Thus, short-term traders may reduce at the current level.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,189.69 UP UP 12,100.00 11,990.00 12,220.00 12,300.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,851.32 UP UP 3,830.00 3,800.00 3,881.00 3,900.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 43.15 UP UP 42.00 40.00 45.00 48.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.50 UP UP 64.92 63.25 66.65 69.90 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.20 UP DOWN 59.23 58.20 61.50 63.30 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 76.00 UP FLAT 76.00 75.00 77.20 78.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 75.40 UP UP 74.40 72.80 75.80 79.40 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 71.00 UP UP 70.00 67.50 72.00 74.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.65 UP UP 21.80 21.50 23.00 23.30 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD)* 77.80 UP UP 76.40 75.40 79.00 80.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 179.20 UP UP 175.00 164.00 182.00 185.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 186.00 UP UP 181.40 178.30 187.50 190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 179.10 UP UP 178.20 174.40 180.00 185.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 91.80 UP UP 90.00 86.60 92.00 95.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 60.40 UP UP 58.00 56.20 61.30 64.80 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.25 UP UP 36.80 35.70 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 21.59 FLAT DOWN 21.24 21.00 22.00 22.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 146.80 UP DOWN 145.30 141.00 149.00 153.80 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 13.56 UP UP 12.99 12.66 14.00 14.23 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.00 UP DOWN 20.90 20.50 21.15 21.83 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.80 UP FLAT 93.00 91.30 95.10 98.40