8 June Daily technical trader


Published on

Published in: Economy & Finance
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Total views
On SlideShare
From Embeds
Number of Embeds
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

8 June Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index snapped its three-day losing streak and turned positive, but later trimmed its gains after reaching an intraday high of 13,320.89. The index rebounded and gained around 89 points (0.68%), reclaiming the 21-day moving average and the 13,200.0 level in a single swoop. We believe if the index manages to stay above 13,200.0, it may set a stage for a higher move toward 13,300.0-13,350.0 levels or else may result in a pullback. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Rebound VFQS stopped its decline over the past few days on Thursday and bounced back, gaining 0.97%. Notably, volumes were also large on the rebound, which is a positive sign. However, the stock faces its immediate resistance at QR20.79. Traders could consider buying this stock, if it trades above QR20.79 for a target of QR21.50 with a stop loss of QR20.50. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, thus supporting this positive technical sentiment. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QERI Index halted its four-day of bearish movement and bounced back, gaining around 0.76% to cross the 4,450.0 level. The index managed to climb above its resistance of 4,445.0 as bulls were back in action. Moreover, the index developed a bullish engulfing candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of this bounce back. We believe the index could test 4,500.0 and 4,530.0, if it sustains above 4,445.0. However, any dip below 4,445.0 may test 4,400.0. Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove QNNS continued its decline and breached its support of QR92.90 on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been moving along the descending trendline over the past few days and is struggling to move above it. Further, QNNS developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of this downmove. Traders could consider selling the stock for a target of QR91.20, followed by QR90.20 with a stop loss of QR92.90. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Rebound MARK, after developing a Doji candle pattern on Wednesday, continued its rebound on Thursday gaining 1.71%. We believe the current bullish move has enough steam to test and surpass its immediate resistance of QR59.90 to target QR61.00. However, any failure to clear QR59.90 may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, the RSI has turned flat from its declining mode, indicating that the stock may extend its rally further. Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Rebound QEWS respected its support of the 21-day moving average and rebounded, gaining 1.27% with increased participation, which reflects optimism among traders. However, the stock is currently sitting right on top of its resistance at QR192.0. We believe, based on the recent price swing and pick up in volumes, the stock may proceed ahead, targeting the QR196.0 level. Conversely, any dip below QR192.0 may drag the stock back to test its 21-day moving average.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,232.06 UP UP 13,195.88 13,100.00 13,350.54 13,447.60 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,452.06 UP UP 4,444.86 4,400.00 4,500.00 4,528.58 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 59.50 UP UP 58.90 57.30 59.90 61.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.20 DOWN FLAT 65.75 64.92 67.30 68.40 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 62.30 DOWN DOWN 62.00 61.00 63.00 63.90 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 99.20 UP UP 98.50 96.00 100.00 102.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.30 DOWN UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.90 UP UP 77.00 76.00 78.00 79.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.24 UP UP 23.23 22.90 23.49 24.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 84.60 DOWN UP 83.00 81.70 85.00 87.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.40 DOWN UP 182.00 180.00 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 182.50 DOWN DOWN 182.50 180.00 184.00 185.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 192.00 UP UP 188.00 186.00 192.00 196.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 91.00 DOWN FLAT 90.00 86.60 93.00 95.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 64.30 DOWN UP 62.40 61.30 66.50 68.40 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 42.30 UP UP 41.40 41.00 43.00 44.50 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.25 FLAT UP 26.00 25.29 26.45 27.35 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 153.50 UP UP 151.00 149.00 153.50 155.20 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 20.75 UP UP 20.50 20.00 20.79 21.50 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.00 FLAT UP 23.40 22.45 24.20 24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 92.00 DOWN DOWN 91.20 90.20 93.10 95.10