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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index snapped its three-day losing streak and turned
positive, but later trimmed its gains after reaching an intraday high of
13,320.89. The index rebounded and gained around 89 points
(0.68%), reclaiming the 21-day moving average and the 13,200.0
level in a single swoop. We believe if the index manages to stay
above 13,200.0, it may set a stage for a higher move toward
13,300.0-13,350.0 levels or else may result in a pullback.
Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Rebound
VFQS stopped its decline over the past few days on Thursday and
bounced back, gaining 0.97%. Notably, volumes were also large on
the rebound, which is a positive sign. However, the stock faces its
immediate resistance at QR20.79. Traders could consider buying this
stock, if it trades above QR20.79 for a target of QR21.50 with a stop
loss of QR20.50. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish
manner, thus supporting this positive technical sentiment.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QERI Index halted its four-day of bearish movement and
bounced back, gaining around 0.76% to cross the 4,450.0 level. The
index managed to climb above its resistance of 4,445.0 as bulls were
back in action. Moreover, the index developed a bullish engulfing
candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of this bounce back.
We believe the index could test 4,500.0 and 4,530.0, if it sustains
above 4,445.0. However, any dip below 4,445.0 may test 4,400.0.
Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove
QNNS continued its decline and breached its support of QR92.90 on
the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been moving
along the descending trendline over the past few days and is
struggling to move above it. Further, QNNS developed a bearish
Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of this
downmove. Traders could consider selling the stock for a target of
QR91.20, followed by QR90.20 with a stop loss of QR92.90.
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Rebound
MARK, after developing a Doji candle pattern on Wednesday,
continued its rebound on Thursday gaining 1.71%. We believe the
current bullish move has enough steam to test and surpass its
immediate resistance of QR59.90 to target QR61.00. However, any
failure to clear QR59.90 may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, the
RSI has turned flat from its declining mode, indicating that the stock
may extend its rally further.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Rebound
QEWS respected its support of the 21-day moving average and
rebounded, gaining 1.27% with increased participation, which reflects
optimism among traders. However, the stock is currently sitting right
on top of its resistance at QR192.0. We believe, based on the recent
price swing and pick up in volumes, the stock may proceed ahead,
targeting the QR196.0 level. Conversely, any dip below QR192.0 may
drag the stock back to test its 21-day moving average.
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
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DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,232.06 UP UP 13,195.88 13,100.00 13,350.54 13,447.60
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,452.06 UP UP 4,444.86 4,400.00 4,500.00 4,528.58
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 59.50 UP UP 58.90 57.30 59.90 61.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.20 DOWN FLAT 65.75 64.92 67.30 68.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 62.30 DOWN DOWN 62.00 61.00 63.00 63.90
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 99.20 UP UP 98.50 96.00 100.00 102.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.30 DOWN UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.80
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 77.90 UP UP 77.00 76.00 78.00 79.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.24 UP UP 23.23 22.90 23.49 24.00
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 84.60 DOWN UP 83.00 81.70 85.00 87.80
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 182.40 DOWN UP 182.00 180.00 183.00 185.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 182.50 DOWN DOWN 182.50 180.00 184.00 185.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 192.00 UP UP 188.00 186.00 192.00 196.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 91.00 DOWN FLAT 90.00 86.60 93.00 95.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 64.30 DOWN UP 62.40 61.30 66.50 68.40
Real Estate Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 42.30 UP UP 41.40 41.00 43.00 44.50
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.25 FLAT UP 26.00 25.29 26.45 27.35
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 153.50 UP UP 151.00 149.00 153.50 155.20
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 20.75 UP UP 20.50 20.00 20.79 21.50
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.00 FLAT UP 23.40 22.45 24.20 24.61
Milaha (QNNS QD)* 92.00 DOWN DOWN 91.20 90.20 93.10 95.10