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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QE Index gained for ...
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - H...
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5 May Daily technical trader

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5 May Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index gained for the third straight session rising around 127 points (0.99%) to close at 12,854.26. The index continued its uptrend and surpassed its important resistance near the 12,770.0 level to make further headway. However, the index faces its key resistance zone near the 12,940.0-12,960.0 levels, which have been tested on four previous occasions. If the index manages to move above this resistance zone, it may record a new high. Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove QNNS penetrated below its support of QR97.0 and the 55-day moving average and caved under heavy selling pressure. Notably, volumes were also large on the decline, which is a negative sign. With the RSI drifting further down from the mid-line and the MACD growing more bearish QNNS’ preferred direction seems to be on the downside. We believe the stock may move down further and test QR93.0. A close above QR95.10 may provide some relief. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index extended its gains and rose 1.11% to close near its day’s high at 4,241.73. The index cleared the interim resistance near the 4,211.0 level as the bulls dominated the bears for the third consecutive session. We believe based on the recent higher push the index may test and surpass its next resistance of 4,247.34 and approach toward 4,300.0. Conversely, any failure to move above 4,247.34 may result in consolidation and the index may test 4,211.0. Nakilat: Short-Term – Upswing QGTS cleared its resistances of QR24.61 and QR25.0 and tagged a 52-week high on the back of large volumes. The stock has been in uptrend mode and is registering strong gains. We believe the stock may proceed toward QR26.0 as it has strong momentum going in, as indicated by the recent price action. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are indicating that QGTS is likely to continue its bullish momentum. However, a close below QR25.0 may halt its upmove. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout VFQS surged 8.40% and surpassed its resistances of QR16.89 & QR17.99 along with the descending trendline, which had restricted the bullish move in the past. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish implications and provides an upside target of QR18.75, followed by QR19.29. Moreover, volumes were also large on the breakout indicating rising buying interest. However, a dip below QR17.99 may result in a false breakout. The RSI is moving up. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove IQCD breached its resistances of QR183.0 and the 55-day moving average in a single swoop indicating continued strength. Moreover, the stock has been moving up over the past few days since clearing the QR178.30 level. We believe the stock may continue its advance and test the next resistance of QR186.40. However, a dip below the 55-day moving average may pull the stock to test QR183.0. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,854.26 UP UP 12,768.17 12,700.00 12,940.00 13,000.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,241.73 UP UP 4,211.12 4,148.08 4,247.34 4,300.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 48.15 UP UP 47.00 45.90 48.50 49.75 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 69.40 UP UP 67.30 66.50 69.80 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 65.00 UP UP 63.90 62.00 65.70 66.40 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 88.10 UP UP 87.30 84.70 88.50 90.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.00 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 98.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 76.20 UP UP 74.80 72.50 77.00 79.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.16 UP UP 22.90 22.49 23.23 23.50 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 90.70 UP UP 87.80 85.00 92.50 94.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 183.80 UP UP 183.00 181.40 187.50 190.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 185.10 UP UP 183.00 181.40 186.40 188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 185.00 UP UP 184.00 180.00 186.00 188.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 89.00 DOWN UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 65.20 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.40 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.50 UP UP 25.29 24.70 26.00 26.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 148.00 UP UP 145.00 143.00 148.00 149.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 18.20 UP UP 17.99 17.30 18.75 19.29 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 25.40 UP UP 25.00 24.61 26.00 26.50 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 95.00 UP UP 93.00 92.00 95.10 96.50
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