4 May Daily technical trader
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4 May Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index extended its gains around 50 points (0.39%) and moved above the 12,700.0 psychological level. However, the index faces its next important resistance near 12,770.0. If the index manages to surpass this level on a closing basis, it may gain further momentum and may rally toward 12,800.0-12,850.0 levels. On the downside, 12,680.0 will act as a good support. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing mixed signals. Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove QNNS continued its decline and penetrated below the 21-day moving average. The stock has been on a declining mode over the past few days and has struggled to move above the descending trendline. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a likely lower move. Although the stock is sitting exactly at its support of QR97.0, it is unlikely to cling onto it and drift lower to test QR95.10. A close above QR97.28 may halt its downmove. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QERI Index witnessed a gap-up opening and marginally moved higher around 3 points (0.06%) to close the session at 4,195.24. The index faces an immediate resistance near 4,212.0, whereas support is seen near the 4,150.0 level. We expect the index to oscillate between these levels. The bulls will be back in action only if the index manages to trade above 4,212.0, until then it is likely to consolidate. Meanwhile, the RSI is stalling, while the MACD is moving down. Nakilat: Short-Term – Upmove QGTS breached its interim resistance of QR24.20 and made further headway on Thursday. The recent price action and spike in volumes indicate that the stock has enough steam to test and surpass its immediate resistance of QR24.61, targeting the QR25.0 level. However, any failure to clear QR24.61 may result in a pullback and the stock could test QR24.20. Meanwhile, both the indicators look strong for a further rally with no immediate trend reversal signs. Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Upmove MERS cleared its resistance of QR185.0 after feigning a failure in the past few attempts. Further, the stock developed a bullish engulfing candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. We believe with volumes picking up on the rise, potential buyers are stepping in. The stock may now march toward its next resistance of QR187.50. However, a dip below QR185.0 may drag the stock back into the congestion zone. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove IQCD gained 2.47% and breached its resistances of QR181.40 and the 21-day moving average in a single swoop. The stock also developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of the upmove toward QR183.0. Any move above this level may spark additional buying interest and test QR184.95. However, a dip below the 21-day moving average may result in a pullback. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,727.64 UP UP 12,678.84 12,600.00 12,768.17 12,850.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,195.24 UP UP 4,148.08 4,100.00 4,211.12 4,247.34 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 47.45 UP UP 47.00 45.90 48.50 49.75 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.50 UP UP 67.30 66.50 69.80 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 65.00 UP UP 63.90 62.00 65.70 66.40 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 87.20 UP UP 84.70 81.70 87.30 88.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.40 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 98.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 75.40 UP UP 74.80 72.50 76.00 77.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.60 DOWN UP 21.80 21.29 22.90 23.23 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 89.00 UP UP 87.80 85.00 90.50 92.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 185.80 UP UP 185.00 183.00 187.50 190.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 182.40 UP DOWN 181.40 180.00 183.00 184.95 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.30 UP UP 180.00 178.18 184.00 186.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 89.30 DOWN UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 66.00 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.15 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.65 UP UP 25.29 24.70 26.00 26.50 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.00 FLAT UP 145.00 143.00 148.00 149.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 16.79 UP UP 16.56 16.00 16.89 17.30 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 24.59 UP UP 24.20 23.90 24.61 25.00 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 97.00 UP UP 95.10 93.00 98.30 100.10