30 June Technical Market Report

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30 June Technical Market Report

  1. 1. Page 1 of 5 QE Intra-Day Movement Qatar Commentary The QE index declined 0.2% to close at 9,275.6. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Insurance indices, declining 0.7% and 0.6% respectively. Top losers were Qatar General Ins. & Rein. Co. and Doha Insurance Co., falling 2.3% and 1.7% respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co. rose 5.9%, while Qatar National Cement Co. gained 5.1%. GCC Commentary Saudi Arabia: The TASI index declined 0.1% to close at 7,496.6. Losses were led by the Agriculture & Food Industries and Real Estate Development indices, declining 1.5% and 1.1% respectively. Tabuk Agriculture Development Co. fell 5.5%, while Saudi Airlines Catering Co. was down 2.7%. Dubai: The DFM index gained marginally to close at 2,222.6. The Services index rose 2.3%, while the Transportation index was up 0.8%. Union Properties gained 6.3%, while National Central Cooling Co. was up 2.3%. Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index rose 0.3% to close at 3,551.2. The Real Estate gained 1.1%, while the Industrial index was up 0.6%. National Marine Dredging Co. surged 15%, while Al Khazna Insurance Co. was up 11.8%. Kuwait: The KSE index declined 1.8% to close at 7,772.9. Losses were led by the Real Estate and Telecommunication indices, declining 2.8% each. Al- Deera Holding Co. fell 9.1%, while Al Qurain Holding Co. was down 8.9%. Oman: The MSM index rose 0.1% to close at 6,338.4. The Banking & Investment index gained 0.5%, while the Services & Insurance index was up 0.2%. Oman International Development & Investment Co. rose 6.2%, while Acwa Power Barka was up 5.7%. Qatar Exchange Top Gainers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co. 54.00 5.9 21.7 1.7 Qatar National Cement Co. 104.00 5.1 28.3 (2.8) Al Khaliji 16.90 1.5 16.8 (0.5) Qatar & Oman Investment Co. 13.69 1.3 139.6 10.5 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. 158.90 1.1 2.8 20.0 Qatar Exchange Top Vol. Trades Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Masraf Al Rayan 27.60 (0.4) 855.6 11.3 Qatar German Co. for Med. Dev. 16.07 1.1 610.4 8.7 United Development Co. 23.00 (0.4) 290.6 29.2 Qatar Gas Transport Co. 18.30 0.1 285.3 19.9 Barwa Real Estate Co. 26.55 (0.9) 258.9 (3.3) Market Indicators 30 June 13 27 June 13 %Chg. Value Traded (QR mn) 153.6 334.5 (54.1) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) 510,992.6 512,210.4 (0.2) Volume (mn) 3.8 5.7 (33.5) Number of Transactions 2,248 3,296 (31.8) Companies Traded 34 38 (10.5) Market Breadth 14:17 18:17 – Market Indices Close 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E Total Return 13,252.65 (0.2) (0.2) 17.1 N/A All Share Index 2,349.24 (0.2) (0.2) 16.6 12.8 Banks 2,236.60 (0.4) (0.4) 14.7 12.1 Industrials 3,101.15 0.1 0.1 18.0 11.5 Transportation 1,667.40 (0.1) (0.1) 24.4 11.8 Real Estate 1,845.48 (0.7) (0.7) 14.5 11.8 Insurance 2,233.05 (0.6) (0.6) 13.7 14.7 Telecoms 1,273.50 0.3 0.3 19.6 14.5 Consumer 5,494.08 0.4 0.4 17.6 22.4 Al Rayan Islamic Index 2,801.56 (0.2) (0.2) 12.6 14.0 GCC Top Gainers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Nat. Marine Dredging Abu Dhabi 8.05 15.0 0.1 (19.5) Saudi Prin. & Pack. Co. Saudi Arabia 38.10 9.8 249.4 3.0 Astra Industrial Group Saudi Arabia 44.70 6.2 594.6 14.6 Qatar Ind. Man. Co. Qatar 54.00 5.9 21.7 1.7 Qatar Nat. Cement Co. Qatar 104.00 5.1 28.3 (2.8) GCC Top Losers## Exchange Close# 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 0.49 (6.7) 48.9 (7.3) Al-Qurain Petrochem. Kuwait 0.20 (4.9) 200.6 10.1 Nat. Investments Co. Kuwait 0.16 (3.7) 3,222.8 19.7 Comm. Real Estate Co. Kuwait 0.09 (3.1) 535.4 31.0 Mobile Telecomm. Co. Kuwait 0.65 (3.0) 1,338.7 (16.7) Source: Bloomberg ( # in Local Currency) ( ## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index comprising of the top 200 regional equities based on market capitalization and liquidity) Qatar Exchange Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar Gen. Ins. & Rein. Co. 46.60 (2.3) 0.8 1.3 Doha Insurance Co. 25.55 (1.7) 13.9 4.1 Gulf Warehousing Co. 41.15 (1.4) 50.8 22.8 Gulf International Services 41.10 (1.3) 167.8 37.0 QNB Group 157.40 (1.0) 192.0 20.2 Qatar Exchange Top Val. Trades Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% QNB Group 157.40 (1.0) 30,148.5 20.2 Industries Qatar 157.60 (0.6) 23,961.4 11.8 Masraf Al Rayan 27.60 (0.4) 23,635.0 11.3 Qatar German Co. for Med. Dev. 16.07 1.1 9,694.7 8.7 Gulf International Services 41.10 (1.3) 6,936.0 37.0 Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) P/E** P/B** Dividend Yield Qatar* 9,275.56 (0.2) (0.2) 0.4 11.0 42.18 140,369.7 11.8 1.7 5.0 Dubai 2,222.57 0.0 0.0 (6.1) 37.0 55.18 58,213.8# 14.3 0.9 3.8 Abu Dhabi 3,551.24 0.3 0.3 (0.3) 35.0 60.55 102,514.2 10.8 1.3 4.9 Saudi Arabia 7,496.57 (0.1) (0.1) 1.2 10.2 1,150.61 399,130.6 15.9 1.9 3.7 Kuwait 7,772.85 (1.8) (1.8) (6.4) 31.0 105.40 106,864.1 24.5 1.4 3.4 Oman 6,338.35 0.1 0.1 (1.2) 10.0 24.76 22,265.1 10.9 1.7 4.4 Bahrain 1,187.79 (0.1) (0.1) (0.7) 11.5 2.98 21,147.3 8.7 0.8 4.1 Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Exchange, Dubai Financial Market and Zawya (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( # Data as of June 27) 9,260 9,280 9,300 9,320 9:30 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00
  2. 2. Page 2 of 5 Qatar Market Commentary  The QE index declined 0.2% to close at 9,275.6. The Real Estate and Insurance indices led the losses. The index declined on the back of selling pressure from non-Qatari shareholders despite buying support from Qatari shareholders.  Qatar General Ins. & Rein. Co. and Doha Insurance Co. were the top losers, falling 2.3% and 1.7% respectively. Among the top gainers, Qatar Industrial Manufacturing Co. rose 5.9%, while Qatar National Cement Co. gained 5.1%.  Volume of shares traded on Sunday declined by 33.5% to 3.8mn from 5.7mn on Thursday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 11.6mn, volume for the day was 67.7% lower. Masraf Al Rayan and Qatar German Co. for Med. Dev. were the most active stocks, contributing 22.8% and 16.2% to the total volume respectively. Source: Qatar Exchange (* as a % of traded value) Ratings and Earnings Ratings Updates Company Agency Market Type* Old Rating New Rating Rating Change Outlook Outlook Change Oman United Insurance Co. (OUIC) S&P Oman Company ratings BBB- BBB  – – Source: News reports Earnings Releases Company Market Currency Revenue (mn) % Change YoY Operating Profit (mn) % Change YoY Net Profit (mn) % Change YoY Sahara Hospitality Co. (SHC)* Oman OMR 2.3 17.9% – – 1.0 4.3% Source: Company data, MSM (* Financial results for the six months period ended on May 31, 2013.) News Qatar  Qatar’s PPI in 1Q2013 rose 4.3% QoQ – According to the data released by the Qatar Statistics Authority (QSA), the Producer Price Index (PPI) for 1Q2013 stood at 177.6, showing an increase of 4.3% QoQ. In the “mining” group, the PPI has increased by 4.8%, primarily due to the overall price rise seen in crude oil & natural gas. The PPI for “manufacturing” group increased by 1.8% QoQ due to rising prices in iron & steel products (11.0% QoQ), basic chemicals (3.6%) and cement products (0.2%). On the other hand, a slight reduction has been noticed in grain mill products, beverages and refined petroleum products. The data also showed that the PPI for “electricity & water” showed an increase of 6.4% QoQ, affected by price rise of 11.1% QoQ in water. On a YoY basis, QSA said the PPI for 1Q2013 has shown overall price stability as it registered a marginal increase of 0.1%. (QSA)  Al Sada: Qatar’s petrochem exports to hit 23mn tons by 2020 – The Minister of Energy & Industry HE Dr Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada said Qatar’s chemical and petrochemical industry’s investments will further increase the sector’s export portfolio to 23mn tons per year by 2020. This growth will position Qatar among the top exporters in the globe. (Peninsula Qatar)  Settlement cycle change to boost QE bond market – The Qatar Exchange (QE) Program Manager Roger Warnock said the proposed change in the settlement cycle from T+3 to T+1 for government securities will spur the debt market in Qatar. (Peninsula Qatar)  Muntajat includes Lotrène to its export portfolio – Qatar Chemical & Petrochemical Marketing & Distribution Company (Muntajat) has obtained the marketing and distribution responsibilities for the Lotrène brand of low density polyethylene (LDPE) and linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE). Muntajat has assumed the commercial and export responsibilities for QAPCO’s LDPE and Qatofin’s LLDPE products, making it the representative of the Lotrène brand. (Qatar Tribune)  Qatar Shell inks maintenance deals with Manweir, ABB – Qatar Shell has signed contracts with Manweir and ABB Oryx to maintain the electric motors at its Pearl Gas to Liquids (Pearl GTL) plant located in the Ras Laffan Industrial City. Pearl GTL has approximately 4,500 electrical motors installed on the plant that need to be regularly inspected and maintained. (Peninsula Qatar)  Widam takes steps to meet demand for Ramadan – Widam Food Company’s Public Services Officer Musa Suleiman said all necessary steps have been taken to meet the increased demand for mutton during the holy month of Ramadan. He added that the public slaughterhouses at the Abu-Hamour Central Market, abattoirs at Al Shamal and Al Khor have been prepared to sell subsidized sheep meat ahead of the holy month. (Gulf-Times.com) International  Greece, lenders resume talks on €8.1bn bailout tranche – Greece and its international lenders have resumed talks to unlock €8.1bn of rescue loans after a two-week break. Greek officials including Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said they expect the talks to conclude successfully, despite setbacks to the country's privatization program and delays in public sector reform. (Reuters)  China HSBC PMI slips to nine-month low of 48.2 in June – China's factory activity shrank for a second straight month in June and reached its lowest in nine months, as new orders fell despite price cuts by producers. The country’s HSBC-Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) retreated to 48.2 for June, the lowest level since September 2012 and down from May's Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari 67.64% 65.33% 3,541,534.62 Non-Qatari 32.36% 34.66% (3,541,534.62)
  3. 3. Page 3 of 5 reading of 49.2. However, it was in line with a preliminary reading of 48.3 released on June 20. (Reuters) Regional  Mobily inks SR2.4bn financing deal with NSN, Ericsson – Etihad Etisalat Company (Mobily) has signed a MoU with Finland-based Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN) and Sweden- based Ericsson to fund the purchase of SR2.4bn of equipment from these firms. Mobily said it would work with export credit agencies to finalize the 10-year Shari’ah-compliant facilities. Mobily said this deal would boost the company's free cash flow. Mobily has mandated Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank to arrange the credit facility. (Tadawul)  SEC signs SR6.3bn cable contracts – The Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) has signed cable contracts worth SR6.3bn to replace old cables and support the electricity network in Saudi Arabia. These medium, low-voltage cables will be delivered within 12 months from the contract signing date. (Bloomberg)  Sadara closes main financing of $10.5bn– Sadara Chemical Company has announced financial closure for the funding of approximately $10.5bn. This marks the completion of project financing for Sadara. The main financing supplements the $2bn raised through a sukuk issuance in April, bringing the total Sadara project financing to approximately $12.5bn. (Tadawul)  Petrochem announces shutdown of its Saudi Polymers project – The National Petrochemical Company (Petrochem) has announced an unscheduled shutdown of its Saudi Polymer Company, starting from June 30, 2013. Petrochem expects that it will take around two weeks for the plant to bring back all units to operation. Petrochem expects the financial impact of this shutdown to be around SR70mn, which will be reflected in its 2Q2013 and 3Q2013 financial results. (Tadawul)  SWCC to increase water production in Mecca – Saudi-based Saline Water Conversion Corp (SWCC) is planning to increase the production of desalinated drinking water in Mecca by 29% to 670,000 cubic meters a day. (Bloomberg)  DEC: Dubai records significant growth in all key sectors in 2012 – According to a report by the Dubai Economic Council (DEC), Dubai posted significant growth in all its key economic sectors in 2012 and is expected to maintain its position as the regional hub for business and finance. The report showed that Dubai’s real economic growth increased to 5.3% YoY during 4Q2012, due to growth in two of Dubai’s key sectors, construction and manufacturing. In addition growth in transport, trade, real estate and the financial sectors together contributed to about 90% of Dubai’s GDP. There was a decline of 0.14% in inflation during 4Q2013. Meanwhile, the government’s budget deficit fell to $2bn in 2012 as a result of public spending rationalization. The real estate sector has witnessed significant growth by about 94% YoY, as the average price for apartments increased to 3% YoY. The report said Dubai’s foreign trade during 4Q2012 also witnessed remarkable growth with imports worth AED186bn as compared to AED117bn of exports. (GulfBase.com)  TRA introduces regulations for e-commerce CSPs in UAE – The Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRA) has established the policies for the licensing and regulation of certification service providers (CSPs), to establish a secure environment for e-commerce and electronic transactions in the UAE. (AME Info)  UPC may report AED40mn profit in 2Q2013 – The Union Properties Company’s (UPC) Chairman Khalid bin Kalban said the company’s 2Q2013 profit range may be as much as AED45mn. (Bloomberg)  Sembcorp starts $200mn UAE water plant expansion – Singapore-based Sembcorp Industries has begun expansion work worth $200mn for a water-desalination plant in the UAE that it operates along with the government-owned utilities of Abu Dhabi. This expansion of the Fujairah 1 Independent Water & Power Plant will add 30mn imperial gallons per day capacity of desalination water by 1H2015. (Bloomberg)  Dana Gas discovers gas in Egypt – Dana Gas has announced of a new gas discovery on the West El Manzala concession in the Nile Delta, Egypt. (AME Info)  NIB executes $1.4bn Islamic mandates in Turkey – Noor Islamic Bank (NIB) has completed Islamic capital market mandates valued at AED5.1bn over the past six months in Turkey. (AME Info)  DEWA launches water pipeline project in Palm Jumeirah – The Dubai Electricity & Water Authority (DEWA) has launched a new water pipeline project worth AED57.5mn in the Palm Jumeirah island, in order to enhance its infrastructure and meet growing demand for its services across Dubai. (AME Info)  Aldar, Sorouh merger becomes effective – Abu Dhabi-based Aldar Properties and Sorouh Real Estate’s merger has become effective at the close of trade on June 27, 2013. The new 3.4bn Aldar ordinary shares have been issued to Sorouh’s shareholders who are registered with Sorouh at the close of trading on the effective date. Following the capital increase, 7.9bn new outstanding Aldar ordinary shares have been issued. Sorouh has been dissolved and all its assets & liabilities have been transferred to Aldar in accordance with the federal law. (ADX)  BMI: Airfreight cargo at KIA will return to growth – According to a report by Business Monitor International (BMI), airfreight cargo at the Kuwait International Airport (KIA) will return to growth, albeit at a sedate pace over 2013-2017. The report stated that the tonnage throughput growth for Port of Shuaiba has been forecast at 4.0% and will average at 5.3% till 2017. The report also said that KIA’s airfreight tonnage is forecast to grow by 1.8% and will average at 1.4% a year to 2017. The total trade real growth has been forecast at 1.0% and will average 2.4% till 2017. (GulfBase.com)  KFH: Capital increase oversubscribed by 156% – The Kuwait Finance House’s (KFH) Chairman Muhammad Ali Al-Khudairy said capital increase allocation process has been completed with subscription reaching 156% and shareholders priority subscription reaching 95%. The remaining 5% that has been not subscribed within the right of priority has been distributed to shareholders who subscribed to the capital increase. He added that the total subscription amount reached KD497mn. (AME Info)  KEC boosts oil production at Egypt ERQ concession – The Kuwait Energy Company’s (KEC) development of a new oil well at Egypt’s East Ras Qattara (ERQ) concession has added 4,800 bpd to the region’s output. This new well will raise average net field production to around 21,000 bpd. KEC owns 49.5% interest in the ERQ concession. (Bloomberg)  CBO’s weekly CD issue allotted OMR426mn – The Central Bank of Oman’s (CBO) this week tender of certificates of deposits (CD) has allotted OMR426mn to its subscribers. CBO said that the average interest rate of these certificates stood at 0.13%, while the maximum accepted interest rate was 0.13%.
  4. 4. Page 4 of 5 The tenor of these certificates is 28 days and they mature on July 24. (GulfBase.com)  SDC lists on MSM, raises OMR31.9mn in IPO – Oman-based Sharqiyah Desalination Company (SDC) has announced the listing of its shares on the Muscat Security Market (MSM) following closure of its IPO, which helped the company raise OMR31.9mn. SDC offered a total of 2.3mn shares in its IPO, which was oversubscribed by 13.1 times. (GulfBase.com)  Bahrain economic growth accelerates strongly in 1Q2013 – According to the data released by the Central Informatics Organization (CIO), Bahrain's economic growth accelerated strongly in 1Q2013, helped by a revival in oil output. The data showed that the country’s GDP – adjusted for inflation – expanded 2.5% QoQ in January-March 2013, compared to a downwardly revised 0.2% in 4Q2012. On an annual basis, growth quickened to 4.2% in 1Q2013 from a downwardly revised 2.5% in 4Q2012. Output in the hydrocarbons sector, which accounts for a quarter of Bahrain's $30bn economy, grew 1.3% QoQ in 1Q2013, against a mere 0.4% rise in 4Q2012. Moreover, the data showed that growth in Bahrain's financial industry slowed to 0.3% QoQ in 1Q2013 from 1.4% in 4Q2012, while in the hospitality sector, which nosedived during the 2011 turmoil, output edged up by 0.5% in 1Q2013, after a 0.1% rise in 4Q2012. Meanwhile, analysts polled by Reuters in April had forecasted Bahrain's GDP growth to ease slightly to 3.3% in 2013 from 3.4% in 2012. (Gulf Base.com)
  5. 5. Contacts Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Trading Head of Sales Head of Research Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5 Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 QEIndex S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC (0.1%) (0.2%) (1.8%) (0.1%) 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% (2.4%) (1.8%) (1.2%) (0.6%) 0.0% 0.6% SaudiArabia Qatar Kuwait Bahrain Oman AbuDhabi Dubai Asset/Currency Performance Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D% WTD% YTD% Gold/Ounce 1,234.57 0.0 0.0 (26.3) DJ Industrial 14,909.60 0.0 0.0 13.8 Silver/Ounce 19.67 0.0 0.0 (35.2) S&P 500 1,606.28 0.0 0.0 12.6 Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel 102.23 0.0 0.0 (9.4) NASDAQ 100 3,403.25 0.0 0.0 12.7 Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu 3.56 0.0 0.0 3.5 STOXX 600 285.02 0.0 0.0 1.9 LPG Propane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 801.00 0.0 0.0 (17.3) DAX 7,959.22 0.0 0.0 4.6 LPG Butane (Arab Gulf)/Ton 791.00 0.0 0.0 (18.3) FTSE 100 6,215.47 0.0 0.0 5.4 Euro 1.30 0.0 0.0 (1.4) CAC 40 3,738.91 0.0 0.0 2.7 Yen 99.14 0.0 0.0 14.3 Nikkei 13,677.32 0.0 0.0 31.6 GBP 1.52 0.0 0.0 (6.4) MSCI EM 940.33 0.0 0.0 (10.9) CHF 1.06 0.0 0.0 (3.1) SHANGHAI SE Composite 1,979.21 0.0 0.0 (12.8) AUD 0.91 0.0 0.0 (12.1) HANG SENG 20,803.29 0.0 0.0 (8.2) USD Index 83.14 0.0 0.0 4.2 BSE SENSEX 19,395.81 0.0 0.0 (0.2) RUB 32.84 0.0 0.0 7.6 Bovespa 47,457.13 0.0 0.0 (22.1) BRL 0.45 0.0 0.0 (8.1) RTS 1,275.44 0.0 0.0 (16.5) 133.3 117.7 107.1

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