3 April Daily technical trader


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3 April Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index extended its strong run for the seventh straight session and tagged a new 52-week high of 11,982.94, but later trimmed its gains to close at 11,939.95. The index witnessed a gap-up opening and breached its important resistance of 11,916.92, as buying support pushed the price higher. We believe if the index can stay above 11,916.92, it may continue to advance toward 12,000.0. However, any retreat below 11,916.92 may result in a pullback. Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Upmove QEWS cleared the resistance of QR176.64 and made further headway yesterday. The stock has been in upmove mode since clearing the QR170.91 level and is steadily moving higher. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to test and surpass QR178.18, targeting QR180.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is likely to enter the overbought territory, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line on the upside indicating a further advance. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index continued its bullish momentum and tagged another new all-time high of 3,692.56, but trimmed its gains to close near its day’s open at 3,676.93 developing a Doji candle pattern. This pattern usually signifies indecision between the bulls and the bears, and is considered a possible trend reversal sign, which was bullish. The index has interim support near 3,664.0. If the index manages to cling onto this level it may proceed ahead, or else it may decline. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pullback GISS moved higher above QR86.60 and tagged a new all-time high, but later reversed & closed near its day’s open developing a Doji candle pattern. This pattern usually indicates indecision on the part of the buyers & sellers and the possibility of a shift in the trend direction which was bullish until now. We believe the stock may drift down and test its interim support at QR86.60 before moving higher. However, if the stock moves above QR90.0 it may rally further. Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Upmove MERS breached its resistance of QR154.90 on Tuesday and continued to move higher yesterday, thus confirming strength in the upmove. The stock is now approaching toward its immediate resistance of QR159.0, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. A breach of this level may trigger additional buying interest, which may further push the stock higher. Meanwhile, the RSI has rejected the mid-line and is moving up in a bullish manner. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove IQCD reversed well before moving toward the QR190.0 level and penetrated below the support of the QR187.50 level, which is a negative sign. Meanwhile, with the RSI drifting lower and the MACD stalling from the rising mode it appears IQCD may move down and test its 55-day moving average. Any sustained weakness below this level may pull the stock to test the 21-day moving average. However, if the stock manages to reclaim QR187.50 it may resume its upmove.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,939.95 UP UP 11,916.92 11,850.00 12,000.00 12,075.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,676.93 UP UP 3,663.53 3,590.13 3,700.00 3,730.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 41.20 UP UP 40.60 40.00 42.00 43.50 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 64.70 UP UP 63.67 61.67 65.60 66.10 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.30 UP DOWN 60.00 58.50 63.30 64.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 74.80 UP DOWN 72.80 71.50 75.00 76.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 74.90 UP UP 74.40 72.80 75.80 77.30 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 66.90 UP UP 65.68 64.00 66.90 67.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.49 UP UP 22.00 21.29 22.75 23.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 73.00 UP UP 71.40 69.00 74.00 74.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 158.00 FLAT UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 186.30 UP UP 183.43 181.50 187.50 190.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 177.90 UP UP 176.64 174.36 178.18 180.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 88.90 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 92.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.50 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 57.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.90 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 20.72 FLAT DOWN 20.50 20.00 21.00 21.30 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 140.90 UP DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.49 UP UP 12.25 12.09 12.66 13.00 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.61 FLAT DOWN 20.44 20.26 20.66 20.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.30 FLAT FLAT 91.30 89.40 93.00 95.10