3 April Daily technical traderPresentation Transcript
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QE Index extended its strong run for the seventh straight session
and tagged a new 52-week high of 11,982.94, but later trimmed its
gains to close at 11,939.95. The index witnessed a gap-up opening
and breached its important resistance of 11,916.92, as buying
support pushed the price higher. We believe if the index can stay
above 11,916.92, it may continue to advance toward 12,000.0.
However, any retreat below 11,916.92 may result in a pullback.
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
QEWS cleared the resistance of QR176.64 and made further
headway yesterday. The stock has been in upmove mode since
clearing the QR170.91 level and is steadily moving higher. We
believe the current higher push has enough steam to test and
surpass QR178.18, targeting QR180.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is likely to
enter the overbought territory, while the MACD is widening away from
the signal line on the upside indicating a further advance.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index continued its bullish momentum and tagged another
new all-time high of 3,692.56, but trimmed its gains to close near its
day’s open at 3,676.93 developing a Doji candle pattern. This pattern
usually signifies indecision between the bulls and the bears, and is
considered a possible trend reversal sign, which was bullish. The
index has interim support near 3,664.0. If the index manages to cling
onto this level it may proceed ahead, or else it may decline.
Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Pullback
GISS moved higher above QR86.60 and tagged a new all-time high,
but later reversed & closed near its day’s open developing a Doji
candle pattern. This pattern usually indicates indecision on the part of
the buyers & sellers and the possibility of a shift in the trend direction
which was bullish until now. We believe the stock may drift down and
test its interim support at QR86.60 before moving higher. However, if
the stock moves above QR90.0 it may rally further.
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
MERS breached its resistance of QR154.90 on Tuesday and
continued to move higher yesterday, thus confirming strength in the
upmove. The stock is now approaching toward its immediate
resistance of QR159.0, which is also in proximity to the 21-day
moving average. A breach of this level may trigger additional buying
interest, which may further push the stock higher. Meanwhile, the RSI
has rejected the mid-line and is moving up in a bullish manner.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove
IQCD reversed well before moving toward the QR190.0 level
and penetrated below the support of the QR187.50 level, which is a
negative sign. Meanwhile, with the RSI drifting lower and the MACD
stalling from the rising mode it appears IQCD may move down and
test its 55-day moving average. Any sustained weakness below this
level may pull the stock to test the 21-day moving average. However,
if the stock manages to reclaim QR187.50 it may resume its upmove.
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
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regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,939.95 UP UP 11,916.92 11,850.00 12,000.00 12,075.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,676.93 UP UP 3,663.53 3,590.13 3,700.00 3,730.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 41.20 UP UP 40.60 40.00 42.00 43.50
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 64.70 UP UP 63.67 61.67 65.60 66.10
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 61.30 UP DOWN 60.00 58.50 63.30 64.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 74.80 UP DOWN 72.80 71.50 75.00 76.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 74.90 UP UP 74.40 72.80 75.80 77.30
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 66.90 UP UP 65.68 64.00 66.90 67.50
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.49 UP UP 22.00 21.29 22.75 23.00
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 73.00 UP UP 71.40 69.00 74.00 74.80
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD)* 158.00 FLAT UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 186.30 UP UP 183.43 181.50 187.50 190.00
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 177.90 UP UP 176.64 174.36 178.18 180.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 88.90 UP UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 92.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.50 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 57.70
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 37.90 UP UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 20.72 FLAT DOWN 20.50 20.00 21.00 21.30
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 140.90 UP DOWN 139.90 138.50 141.00 143.50
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 12.49 UP UP 12.25 12.09 12.66 13.00
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 20.61 FLAT DOWN 20.44 20.26 20.66 20.90
Milaha (QNNS QD) 92.30 FLAT FLAT 91.30 89.40 93.00 95.10