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29 Daily technical trader 29 Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript

  • Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback The QE Index remained in bearish mode throughout the day and shed 164 points (-1.28%). The index witnessed a gap-down opening and breached the 12,800.0 and 12,700.0 levels in a single swoop as sustained selling pushed it lower to close at 12,696.24. The next defendable support is seen near the 12,678.84 level. This is a critical area to watch out for traders as a dip below this level could trigger a sell-off and may result in bearish implications. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Downmove MARK penetrated below the support of QR48.50 on Sunday and continued to move lower yesterday. Moreover, the stock has been in declining mode and is moving along the descending trendline over the past few days. With the RSI and the MACD lines pointing down it seems MARK may continue to drift lower and test the 21-day moving average. However, if the stock manages to move above QR48.50 it may provide some relief. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback The QERI Index continued to drift lower and fell around 38 points (- 0.89%) to close the session below the 4,200.0 level. Moreover, the index has been experiencing a steady decline over the past few days since peaking at 4,317.91. We believe the index may witness a further downside and test its support near the 4,150.0 level. However, the index needs to move above 4,248.0 for the bulls to get back into action; until then we expect the weakness to continue. Ooredoo: Short-Term – Downmove ORDS witnessed a gap-down opening and breached its support at QR145.0 on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu candle indicating the continuation of this downmove. We believe although the stock is sitting right at its support of QR143.0 it may not cling onto it and decline further to test QR141.80. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bearish divergence, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the negative territory. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Downmove KCBK breached its supports of the 21-day moving average and QR22.49 in a single swoop and caved under heavy selling pressure. Notably, volumes were also large on the decline which is a further negative sign. Meanwhile, with both the momentum indicators looking weak KCBK’s preferred direction seems to be on the downside. We believe the stock may not hold onto its support of QR21.80, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average and test QR21.29. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Bounce Back QIGD rebounded and gained 3.03% to surpass its resistance of the descending trendline after consolidating below it over the past few days. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish engulfing candle pattern, which usually indicates a bullish signal. The stock faces its immediate resistance at QR68.40. Any move above this level may spark additional buying interest, which may push the stock further toward QR70.0. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner.
  • Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,696.24 UP UP 12,678.84 12,600.00 12,768.17 12,850.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,199.68 UP UP 4,148.08 4,100.00 4,247.34 4,301.50 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 47.80 UP UP 45.02 44.15 48.50 51.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.30 UP UP 67.30 65.75 69.80 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 64.70 UP UP 63.30 62.00 65.70 66.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 85.00 UP UP 84.70 81.70 87.30 88.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.50 UP UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 98.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 75.10 UP UP 74.80 72.50 76.00 77.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 22.00 DOWN FLAT 21.80 21.29 22.49 22.90 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 87.00 UP UP 85.00 83.40 87.80 90.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 186.90 UP UP 185.00 183.00 190.00 195.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 179.00 UP FLAT 178.30 175.00 181.40 183.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 185.90 UP UP 184.00 180.00 186.00 188.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 89.10 DOWN UP 86.60 84.80 90.00 93.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 67.90 UP UP 64.70 61.30 68.40 71.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 39.40 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.70 41.40 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.85 UP UP 25.80 25.29 27.20 28.12 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 143.00 DOWN DOWN 143.00 141.80 145.30 149.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 17.15 UP UP 16.89 16.00 17.99 19.29 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 23.69 UP UP 22.80 22.50 24.00 24.50 Milaha (QNNS QD) 100.60 UP UP 100.10 98.30 102.50 104.90