27 March Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index gained around 22 points (0.19%) for the second
straight session as buying interest pushed the price higher. The index
witnessed a gap-down opening, but later managed to recoup its
losses to close the volatile session at 11,331.46. However, a move
above 11,338.41, which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving
average, is needed for a further confirmation of this bullish move.
Meanwhile, the index has support near the 11,300.0 level.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
BRES continued its upmove and breached the resistance of QR35.80
yesterday. The stock is rapidly approaching toward its immediate
resistance of QR36.80 and has strong momentum going in, as
indicated by the recent price swings and volumes. A breach above
this level may spark additional buying interest, which may push the
stock to test QR37.40. However, a dip below QR35.80 may halt its
upmove. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove
The QERI Index extended its gains and tagged a new all-time high of
3,499.36, but later trimmed its gains to close at 3,494.13. The index
not only surpassed its immediate resistance of 3,481.42, but also
successfully cleared the 3,490.49 level as the bulls were under full
control. We believe this strong breach of resistances has bullish
implications and the index may continue its advance. Traders may
need to keep a close watch on 3,490.49 for any reversal signs.
Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Pullback
QATI has been hovering under its 21-day moving average and
seems to be facing difficulty in clearing it. We believe as long as the
stock trades below this moving average the upmove seems to be in
jeopardy. With both the indicators pointing down, QATI may continue
to drift lower and test its immediate support of QR62.64, which is also
in proximity to the 55-day moving average. A close above the 21-day
moving average would be an accumulation signal.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove
QIBK cleared the resistances of QR72.80 and the descending
trendline, which had restricted its bullish run in the past on the back of
large volumes. The stock is once again approaching the QR74.10,
level which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. If the
stock can breach this level, it will confirm this upmove targeting
QR75.0. However, a dip below QR72.80 may result in a pullback. The
RSI is supporting this bullish sentiment by moving upward.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback
IQCD witnessed a gap-up opening and momentarily moved above
the resistance of QR178.30, but later trimmed its gains as there was
exhaustion on the part of buyers. We believe the stock must
overcome this level in order to advance further. Meanwhile, the
MACD is drifting further down from the signal line, while the RSI is
stalling from the rising mode indicating a price correction. Hence, we
expect a pullback from the current level targeting the QR175.0 level.
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,331.46 DOWN DOWN 11,300.00 11,250.00 11,338.41 11,400.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,494.13 UP UP 3,490.49 3,481.42 3,499.36 3,530.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.55 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 60.50 DOWN DOWN 59.33 58.40 61.67 62.75
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 58.80 DOWN DOWN 57.40 56.20 60.00 62.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 73.00 DOWN DOWN 71.80 70.50 74.10 75.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 71.30 DOWN UP 70.30 69.40 72.80 74.40
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 63.10 DOWN FLAT 62.64 61.52 65.68 66.90
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.15 DOWN DOWN 28.00 27.52 29.15 29.95
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 44.70 DOWN UP 44.50 43.20 47.80 48.75
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 158.00 FLAT UP 154.90 151.50 159.00 164.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 177.70 DOWN DOWN 175.00 173.00 180.00 181.40
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 169.30 DOWN UP 168.00 165.36 170.91 174.36
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 76.00 UP UP 75.20 73.20 78.80 80.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 54.80 UP DOWN 54.00 52.40 56.20 58.00
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 36.30 UP UP 35.80 34.80 36.80 37.40
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 20.38 DOWN DOWN 20.00 19.75 20.50 21.00
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 138.90 DOWN DOWN 138.50 136.00 141.00 143.50
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 11.96 DOWN UP 11.74 11.44 12.09 12.25
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 19.90 DOWN DOWN 19.80 19.50 20.00 20.44
Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.80 DOWN UP 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50