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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Down
As expected, the QE Index broke its support level of 12,400 and
continued its downtrend. The index fell below the 12,300 level during
the day, making a low of 12,269.7, but recovered to close at
12,323.45, which is down 0.91%. With both the technical indicators
suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend, the index may test its
next support of 12,215. Once this level is broken, the next support is
seen at 12,100.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove
IQCD broke its pattern of higher highs and higher lows to fall 2.51%
on Tuesday and close at QR174.50. The stock is likely to move
toward its support level of QR170. If this level is broken, IQCD could
move to QR165.0. The RSI is moving down and is close to the
oversold zone, while the MACD has begun to diverge from the signal
line in the downside. However, a close above the 21-day moving
average (at QR182.5), would suggest a continuation of the uptrend.
QE Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Down
The QERI index slipped 0.91% to close at 4,099.68, marginally below
its support level of 4,100. If the index remains below this level, it is
likely to move toward the 4,000 level. The index closed near the
lowest point of the day, indicating the likelihood of further decline from
the current level. The MACD and the RSI are also trending lower,
confirming the bearish view. On the upside, the 4,148 level will now
act as a resistance for the index.
United Development Co.: Short-Term – Downmove
After testing its resistance level of QR24.75 for the past few days,
UDCD fell back and slipped 2.11% to close at QR24.14. If the stock
breaks its next support of QR24.0, it could fall toward the next support
level seen at QR23.42. Both the RSI and the MACD support this
bearish view. However, investors should exercise caution if the stock
moves back above its resistance of QR24.75.
Doha Bank: Short-Term – Break down
DHBK witnessed heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, falling 2.41% on
high volumes. As a result, the stock broke two support levels of
QR57.90 and 56.90 in a single trading session. The stock continues
to look weak with both the technical indicators trending lower. DHBK
is likely to test its support level of QR56.10, below which the stock can
move toward 55.0. However, investors should exercise caution if the
stock moves back to cross the QR58.0 level.
Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Upmove
QATI has been moving higher over the last few days. The stock
moved up 0.63% on Tuesday on the back of strong volumes, which is
a positive signal. The MACD has signaled a positive crossover,
supporting our positive view. On the upside, the stock has resistance
at QR84.40. The stock has received strong support from its 55-day
moving average (currently at QR76.97). Investors should turn
cautious if QATI moves below this level.
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,323.45 DOWN DOWN 12,250.00 12,100.00 12,513.65 12,600.0
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,099.68 DOWN DOWN 3,974.62 3,873.14 4,231.77 4,256.0
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 50.40 DOWN UP 48.50 47.40 51.80 52.30
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.70 FLAT DOWN 64.15 63.60 66.30 67.20
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 56.60 DOWN DOWN 56.10 55.00 56.90 57.90
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 90.00 DOWN UP 90.00 86.90 93.90 96.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 78.50 DOWN DOWN 78.30 75.50 80.70 83.00
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 80.00 FLAT UP 76.00 74.10 81.40 84.40
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 21.00 DOWN DOWN 21.00 20.17 22.01 22.50
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 79.60 DOWN DOWN 79.00 78.10 85.00 87.80
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 168.60 DOWN DOWN 164.00 159.00 171.00 175.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 174.50 DOWN DOWN 170.00 165.00 180.00 182.50
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 182.00 FLAT DOWN 182.00 180.00 188.00 192.0
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 95.00 FLAT FLAT 90.00 86.60 98.00 101.70
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 58.30 DOWN DOWN 57.70 57.00 61.30 62.40
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.85 DOWN UP 38.40 37.40 39.20 39.70
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 24.14 DOWN DOWN 24.00 23.42 24.75 25.30
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 134.50 DOWN DOWN 130.0 125.10 137.50 139.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 19.55 DOWN UP 19.29 18.75 20.00 20.79
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.60 DOWN DOWN 22.45 22.00 23.40 23.90
Milaha (QNNS QD) 91.60 DOWN DOWN 90.00 88.70 93.00 94.30