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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback
The QE Index closed in...
Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - H...
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21 May Daily technical trader

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Transcript of "21 May Daily technical trader "

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Pullback The QE Index closed in the red for the fifth session in a row and dipped around 54 points (-0.42%). The index momentarily moved above 12,850.0, but could not hold onto its gains and declined later penetrating below its immediate support of 12,768.17. However, the index managed to trim its losses recovering from its intraday low of 12,669.12 to end the volatile day at 12,734.15. We believe the index may continue to drift lower until it trades below the 12,768.17 level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove IQCD moved below its support of QR180.0 yesterday. Moreover, the stock has been experiencing selling pressure over the past few days and is in declining mode. We believe the stock may continue to drift lower and test its next support of QR178.30. Any sustained weakness below this level may pull the stock further down to test QR175.0. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing bearish signals indicating a further downside. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Pullback The QERI Index extended its losses and moved lower around 12 points. However, the index managed to recoup majority of its losses, recovering from its intraday low of 4,196.19 to close the session at 4,231.0. Meanwhile, the bears may continue to dominate the bulls until it trades below 4,247.34 and drag the index lower toward 4,200.0. The index needs to move above 4,247.34 & the 21-day moving average and sustain above it in order to proceed ahead. Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Pullback QEWS continued to drift lower yesterday and penetrated below the support of the QR182.0 level. Notably, volumes were also large on the decline which is a negative sign. We believe although the stock is sitting exactly at its support of QR180.0, it may not cling onto it and continue to move lower to test the 55-day moving average, followed by QR178.18. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving further down from the mid-line, while the MACD is growing more bearish. Nakilat: Short-Term – Downmove QGTS after breaching its 21-day moving average on Monday continued to move lower and dipped below its interim support of QR23.90, thus confirming its downmove. We believe the stock may continue to drift lower and test its next support of QR23.40. Any penetration below QR23.40 may result in a sell-off and the stock may pull toward QR22.45. However, a close above QR23.90 may provide some relief. Meanwhile, both the indicators are looking weak. Milaha: Short-Term – Downmove QNNS has been experiencing a steady decline over the past few days and continued to move lower penetrating below the support of QR95.10. Moreover, with the RSI pointing down and the MACD drifting away from the signal line in a bearish manner QNNS’ preferred direction seems to be on the downside. We believe the stock may further decline to test QR92.90. However, if the stock manages to reclaim QR95.10 it may halt its downmove.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,734.15 DOWN UP 12,678.84 12,600.00 12,768.17 12,850.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,231.00 DOWN UP 4,211.42 4,148.08 4,247.34 4,301.89 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 49.90 UP UP 48.50 47.00 51.00 51.80 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 67.00 DOWN UP 66.30 65.75 67.80 68.40 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.00 DOWN UP 62.00 60.00 63.30 65.70 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 92.00 UP UP 90.00 89.00 93.90 96.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.50 DOWN UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 75.00 DOWN UP 74.80 72.50 76.00 77.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.97 DOWN UP 22.90 22.50 23.23 23.49 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 86.00 DOWN UP 83.00 81.70 86.25 87.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 183.00 DOWN UP 183.00 180.00 185.00 187.80 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 179.00 DOWN DOWN 178.30 175.00 180.00 181.40 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)* 180.00 DOWN UP 180.00 178.18 182.00 184.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 96.70 UP UP 95.00 93.00 97.00 98.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 64.60 DOWN UP 62.40 61.30 66.50 68.40 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.90 UP UP 38.40 37.40 39.20 40.35 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.65 FLAT UP 25.29 24.65 26.00 26.45 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 144.60 DOWN FLAT 143.50 141.80 145.00 147.40 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 18.05 DOWN UP 17.99 17.30 18.49 18.75 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 23.65 DOWN UP 23.40 22.45 23.90 24.20 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 94.30 DOWN DOWN 92.90 91.30 95.10 96.50
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