21 January Daily technical traderPresentation Transcript
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
Qatar Electricity & Water Co.: Short-Term – Downmove
The QE Index failed to reclaim the 11,100.0 level and declined
around 21 points (-0.19%) for the second consecutive day to close at
11,072.13. The index is currently trading close to its intermediate
support near 11,060.0. If the index dips below this level, more selling
is likely to happen, pulling it further toward the 11,000.0 psychological
level. On the flip side, if the index manages to hold onto 11,060.0, it
could set a stage to advance toward the 11,100.0 level.
The QERI Index penetrated below its support of the 3,199.21 level to
close the session at 3,198.72. The index experienced selling pressure
throughout the day as bears dominated the bulls. We believe if the
weakness continues the index is likely to drift down further and test its
intermediate support at 3,185.46. Conversely, the index needs to
move above 3,199.21 on a closing basis in order to keep its upward
momentum intact. Meanwhile, the RSI line is moving down.
QEWS dipped below the supports of QR180.0 and its 21-day moving
average (currently at QR179.23) in a single swoop for the first time
since December. Moreover, the stock developed a bearish Marubozu
candle pattern, indicating a likely correction from the current level. We
believe the stock is underperforming since topping the rally at
QR184.10 and may head lower to test QR178.0. Meanwhile, both
momentum indicators are on a downtrend mode.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Downmove
Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Downmove
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Breakout
IQCD declined below the support of QR178.30 on the back of large
volumes, which is a negative sign. Moreover, the stock struggled to
stay above the long-term ascending trendline and declined further
yesterday. We believe IQCD seems to be approaching QR176.0. Any
sustained weakness below this level may indicate a move toward
QR174.60. Meanwhile, both the RSI and MACD lines are providing
bearish signals, indicating a lower move.
QIGD failed to move above the resistance of QR47.70 and caved in
to selling pressure. Moreover, the stock has been experiencing
sustained selling pressure over the past few days and is moving
along a descending trendline. We believe the stock is trending weak
and may continue to decline further and test QR44.20 as it has little
support until then. In addition, with both momentum indicators pointing
lower, the preferred direction for QIGD seems to be on the downside.
QIBK finally breached the long-term resistance of QR74.0 after few
failed attempts in the past few days. Notably, the breakout happened
on the back of large volumes, indicating a rising buying interest.
Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern,
indicating a possibility of a higher move. The stock is currently sitting
right at its immediate resistance of QR75.0. We believe the stock may
be ready for a move above this level targeting the QR77.0 level.
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Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index)
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index)
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD)
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)*
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)
National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD)
Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD)
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS)
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)*
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD)*
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)*
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
United Development Co. (UDCD QD)
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)
Nakilat (QGTS QD)
Milaha (QNNS QD)
Banks and Financial Services
Consumer Goods and Services
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Ahmed M. Shehada
QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534
Head of Trading
Tel: (+974) 4476 6535
Head of Sales
Tel: (+974) 4476 6533
Manager - HNWI
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544
Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
PO Box 24025
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