21 August Daily technical trader


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21 August Daily technical trader

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21 August Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back The QE Index moved higher marginally and gained for the third consecutive session to close at 13,682.57. The index remained in subdued mode throughout the day and ended on a flattish note. Meanwhile, the index needs to proceed above 13,700.0 to gather further momentum and extend this rally toward 13,800.0. Conversely, any failure to clear 13,700.0 may result in consolidation. Meanwhile, 13,650.0 may act as an intermediate support. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upmove MARK found support near the ascending trendline and gained 1.79% on the back of increased participation. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern, which usually indicates a bullish signal. Further, the RSI is in the buy zone, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line on the upside. We believe the stock may advance toward QR57.30. However, traders may need to exercise caution if the stock slips below the QR55.80 level. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QERI Index extended its gains for the third straight session and closed at a new high level. The index began its steep ascent in July and has not looked back since then. We believe the index is in bull- run mode and may continue its rally tagging fresh highs, as there are no imminent trend reversal signs. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are looking strong. On the flip side, the index may find support near the 4,708.0 level. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Pullback UDCD breached its lower end of the channel support of QR29.85 on the back of large volumes, which is a negative signal. Moreover, the RSI has shown a negative slope, while the MACD has crossed the signal line in a bearish manner. We believe the stock may continue to drift lower and test its support at QR29.05, which is also in proximity to the 21-day moving average. However, if the stock manages to climb above QR29.85 it may attract buyers. Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Uptrend QATI built on its gains and recorded another fresh all-time high yesterday. The stock has been moving along the ascending channel over the past few weeks and is in uptrend mode. Further, the RSI and the MACD lines are positively poised with no immediate trend reversal signs signifying strength. We believe the stock may extend this rally further and tag new highs. However, a retreat below QR97.0 may halt its uptrend resulting in consolidation. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Uptrend GISS advanced 2.24% and cleared its key resistance of QR121.0 recording an all-time high. Further, the stock moved above QR121.0 after a brief period of consolidation. GISS has been in uptrend mode and registering strong gains since June. We believe the stock may continue its positive momentum and rally further tagging new highs. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence indicating strength in the current rally.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,682.57 UP UP 13,584.34 13,447.24 13,694.19 13,753.36 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,740.15 UP UP 4,707.59 4,685.20 4,770.31 4,800.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 56.80 UP UP 55.80 54.00 57.30 59.90 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.30 UP UP 67.30 66.50 68.30 69.50 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 60.50 UP UP 60.00 58.00 61.00 62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 116.80 UP UP 115.00 112.50 118.00 119.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.40 FLAT UP 83.50 82.80 85.00 85.90 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 97.80 UP UP 97.00 96.00 98.00 100.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.00 DOWN DOWN 21.80 21.49 22.00 22.35 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 137.10 UP UP 132.00 128.80 139.40 141.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 188.90 FLAT UP 187.80 185.00 190.00 193.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 185.40 UP UP 184.50 183.10 186.40 188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 189.00 UP UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 192.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 123.00 UP UP 121.00 118.10 124.00 126.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 59.10 UP UP 57.70 56.20 59.70 60.60 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 42.20 UP UP 41.80 41.00 42.50 43.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 29.50 UP UP 29.05 28.55 29.85 30.45 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 123.70 DOWN DOWN 123.70 122.90 126.00 128.50 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 21.20 UP UP 20.78 20.00 21.40 21.99 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 24.60 UP UP 24.45 24.12 25.00 25.30 Milaha (QNNS QD) 94.90 UP UP 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50