15 June Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QE Index rebounded and gained around 66 points (0.51%) to
breach its resistance of 12,940.0. The index momentarily dipped
below the 12,900.0 level, but shaved off all its losses as buyers
stepped in to quickly offset the weakness. We believe if the index
manages to stay above 12,940.0 on a closing basis, it may advance
toward 13,020.0. However, any retreat below the 12,940.0 level may
result in a pullback, and the index may test the 12,900.0 level.
Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback
IQCD breached the important support of QR181.40 on Wednesday
and continued to drift lower on Thursday. Notably, volumes were also
large on the decline, which is a negative sign. The stock has been
moving along the descending trendline over the past few days,
registering losses. Further, with both the momentum indicators
showing negative slope, we believe the stock may drop further to test
QR180.0. However, a close above QR181.40 may halt its pullback.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral
The QERI Index snapped its four day of losing streak and bounced
back by 0.21% to close the session at 4,340.99. However,
unfortunately for bulls, the index failed to close above the 4,341.10
level, but traders are advised to wait and see if there is any further
follow-through to the bounce back. If the index manages to close
above 4,350.0, it may set a stage to move higher toward 4,400.0.
However, any failure to sustain above 4,350.0 may drag the index.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Rebound
QGTS gained 1.08% and rebounded, breaching its resistance of
QR23.40. Further, the stock found the support of the 55-day moving
average and developed a bullish candlestick formation on daily
charts, indicating a likely advance. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a
positive divergence, while the MACD is showing signs of recovery.
Thus, traders may consider buying the stock at the current level,
targeting QR23.90 with a stop loss of the QR23.40 level.
Doha Bank: Short-Term – Pullback
DHBK continued its declining mode and further penetrated below the
support of QR61.0 on Thursday. Moreover, the stock has been
struggling to move above the descending trendline over the past few
days and is declining. We believe until the stock trades below this
trendline, the upmove is in jeopardy, which may push it lower to test
the falling wedge line at QR60.10. Meanwhile, both the indicators are
looking weak, supporting this bearish sentiment.
Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QNNS cleared both the important resistances of QR93.0 and the
descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past.
Meanwhile, the stock developed a Harami candle pattern on
Wednesday and continued its upmove, confirming this reversal
pattern that was bearish until now. We believe with the RSI showing
bullish divergence, the stock may test and surpass the 21-day moving
average targeting the QR94.50 level.
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Doha, Qatar
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regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,978.86 DOWN UP 12,939.80 12,850.00 13,019.55 13,100.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,340.99 DOWN UP 4,301.89 4,247.34 4,341.10 4,400.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 53.90 DOWN UP 52.30 51.80 55.00 57.30
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.30 DOWN DOWN 64.92 64.15 66.50 67.30
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 60.40 DOWN DOWN 60.10 59.00 61.00 62.00
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 98.50 DOWN UP 98.50 96.00 100.00 102.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.40 DOWN UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.80
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 79.20 UP UP 79.00 78.00 80.70 81.40
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.95 DOWN DOWN 22.90 22.50 23.49 24.00
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 84.60 DOWN UP 83.00 81.70 85.00 87.80
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 180.50 DOWN UP 180.00 175.00 183.00 185.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 180.90 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.30 181.40 182.50
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 190.10 FLAT UP 188.00 185.00 192.00 196.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 93.70 FLAT UP 93.00 91.40 95.00 98.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 62.60 DOWN DOWN 62.40 61.30 64.70 66.50
Real Estate Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 42.00 UP UP 41.40 41.00 43.00 44.50
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.90 DOWN FLAT 24.75 24.50 25.30 26.00
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.40 DOWN DOWN 147.40 145.00 149.00 151.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.05 UP UP 20.00 19.29 20.79 21.25
Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 23.50 FLAT UP 23.40 23.00 23.90 24.20
Milaha (QNNS QD)* 93.80 FLAT DOWN 93.00 91.30 94.50 95.10