15 June Daily technical trader


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15 June Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index rebounded and gained around 66 points (0.51%) to breach its resistance of 12,940.0. The index momentarily dipped below the 12,900.0 level, but shaved off all its losses as buyers stepped in to quickly offset the weakness. We believe if the index manages to stay above 12,940.0 on a closing basis, it may advance toward 13,020.0. However, any retreat below the 12,940.0 level may result in a pullback, and the index may test the 12,900.0 level. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Pullback IQCD breached the important support of QR181.40 on Wednesday and continued to drift lower on Thursday. Notably, volumes were also large on the decline, which is a negative sign. The stock has been moving along the descending trendline over the past few days, registering losses. Further, with both the momentum indicators showing negative slope, we believe the stock may drop further to test QR180.0. However, a close above QR181.40 may halt its pullback. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index snapped its four day of losing streak and bounced back by 0.21% to close the session at 4,340.99. However, unfortunately for bulls, the index failed to close above the 4,341.10 level, but traders are advised to wait and see if there is any further follow-through to the bounce back. If the index manages to close above 4,350.0, it may set a stage to move higher toward 4,400.0. However, any failure to sustain above 4,350.0 may drag the index. Nakilat: Short-Term – Rebound QGTS gained 1.08% and rebounded, breaching its resistance of QR23.40. Further, the stock found the support of the 55-day moving average and developed a bullish candlestick formation on daily charts, indicating a likely advance. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a positive divergence, while the MACD is showing signs of recovery. Thus, traders may consider buying the stock at the current level, targeting QR23.90 with a stop loss of the QR23.40 level. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Pullback DHBK continued its declining mode and further penetrated below the support of QR61.0 on Thursday. Moreover, the stock has been struggling to move above the descending trendline over the past few days and is declining. We believe until the stock trades below this trendline, the upmove is in jeopardy, which may push it lower to test the falling wedge line at QR60.10. Meanwhile, both the indicators are looking weak, supporting this bearish sentiment. Milaha: Short-Term – Bounce Back QNNS cleared both the important resistances of QR93.0 and the descending trendline, which had restricted its bullish move in the past. Meanwhile, the stock developed a Harami candle pattern on Wednesday and continued its upmove, confirming this reversal pattern that was bearish until now. We believe with the RSI showing bullish divergence, the stock may test and surpass the 21-day moving average targeting the QR94.50 level.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,978.86 DOWN UP 12,939.80 12,850.00 13,019.55 13,100.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,340.99 DOWN UP 4,301.89 4,247.34 4,341.10 4,400.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 53.90 DOWN UP 52.30 51.80 55.00 57.30 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 65.30 DOWN DOWN 64.92 64.15 66.50 67.30 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 60.40 DOWN DOWN 60.10 59.00 61.00 62.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 98.50 DOWN UP 98.50 96.00 100.00 102.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 84.40 DOWN UP 83.00 80.70 86.10 87.80 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 79.20 UP UP 79.00 78.00 80.70 81.40 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.95 DOWN DOWN 22.90 22.50 23.49 24.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 84.60 DOWN UP 83.00 81.70 85.00 87.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 180.50 DOWN UP 180.00 175.00 183.00 185.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 180.90 DOWN DOWN 180.00 178.30 181.40 182.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 190.10 FLAT UP 188.00 185.00 192.00 196.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 93.70 FLAT UP 93.00 91.40 95.00 98.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 62.60 DOWN DOWN 62.40 61.30 64.70 66.50 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 42.00 UP UP 41.40 41.00 43.00 44.50 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 24.90 DOWN FLAT 24.75 24.50 25.30 26.00 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.40 DOWN DOWN 147.40 145.00 149.00 151.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.05 UP UP 20.00 19.29 20.79 21.25 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD)* 23.50 FLAT UP 23.40 23.00 23.90 24.20 Milaha (QNNS QD)* 93.80 FLAT DOWN 93.00 91.30 94.50 95.10