15 May Daily technical trader


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15 May Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QE Index snapped its four-day winning streak and shed around 14 points (-0.11%) as traders opted to book profits. Meanwhile, the index recovered from its intraday low of 13,090.88 as buyers stepped in and quickly offset the majority of its losses to end the volatile session at 13,160.60. This clearly indicates that buyers are willing to accumulate at every possible dip. We believe until the index trades above the 13,100.0 level it may further continue its rally. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIBK cleared the resistances of QR91.80 and QR93.20 in a single swoop and tagged a 52-week high on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock has been advancing over the past few days and is in upmove mode. We believe based on the current higher push the stock may continue its upward momentum recording a new 52-week high. However, a dip below QR93.20 may pull the stock down. Meanwhile, both indicators look strong. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Neutral The QERI Index halted its four-day of gains and declined around 9 points (-0.21%) on the back of profit-booking. The index momentarily dipped below the support of the 4,301.89 level, but later managed to close above it as sustained buying interest trimmed its losses. The index needs to cling onto its support near 4,302.0 in order to continue its bullish momentum. On the other hand, any retreat below 4,301.89 on a closing basis may result in a pullback. Al Khalij Commercial Bank: Short-Term – Upmove KCBK continued its rally and breached its key resistance of QR23.49 yesterday. The stock has been moving along the ascending trendline over the past few days and is gradually gaining strength. Moreover, with the RSI moving up in a bullish manner and the MACD crossing the signal line into the positive territory, KCBK may test and surpass QR24.0 targeting QR24.50. However, any dip below QR23.49 on a closing basis may pull the stock back into the congestion zone. Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Uptrend GISS extended its bullish momentum and tagged a fresh all-time high yesterday. Moreover, the stock moved up aggressively over the past few days and consistently recorded new highs. Further, the RSI is moving strongly in the overbought territory, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line with no immediate trend reversal signs. We believe the stock is trending strong and may rally further. However, a decline below QR100.0 may halt its uptrend mode. Qatar International Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Pullback QIIK developed a Doji candle pattern on Tuesday and further penetrated below the supports of QR89.0 and QR87.80 in a single trading session. Notably, volumes were also large on the decline which is a negative signal. Moreover, the stock developed an evening star candle pattern, which usually indicates a bearish signal. With both the indicators pointing down, we believe the stock may continue to drift lower and test QR86.10, followed by the 21-day moving average.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,160.60 UP UP 13,100.00 13,019.55 13,196.00 13,280.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,310.43 UP UP 4,301.89 4,247.34 4,342.00 4,370.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 50.00 UP UP 49.75 48.50 51.80 53.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 68.80 DOWN UP 68.40 67.30 69.80 70.70 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 65.00 UP UP 63.90 62.00 65.70 66.40 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 93.50 UP UP 93.20 91.80 94.80 96.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)* 87.00 UP UP 86.10 83.00 87.80 89.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 78.70 UP UP 77.00 76.00 79.00 81.40 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD)* 23.89 UP UP 23.23 22.90 24.00 24.50 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 87.90 UP UP 87.80 87.00 90.00 92.00 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 185.00 FLAT UP 183.00 180.00 185.00 187.80 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 190.40 UP UP 188.50 186.40 192.50 194.60 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 188.60 UP UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 195.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 100.70 UP UP 100.00 98.00 102.00 104.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 65.50 FLAT UP 62.40 61.30 64.70 68.40 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 38.20 FLAT UP 37.40 36.80 38.40 39.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.00 UP UP 25.29 24.70 26.45 27.00 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 147.40 FLAT UP 145.00 143.00 148.00 149.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 18.50 UP UP 17.99 17.30 18.75 19.29 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 25.35 UP UP 24.61 24.20 25.55 25.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 99.00 UP UP 98.30 96.50 100.10 102.50