The document provides a technical analysis of the QE Index, key Qatari stocks, and indexes over the short term. It finds that the QE Index and Al Rayan Islamic Index rebounded after recent declines but remain below crucial resistance levels. Individual stocks like Nakilat and Qatar Islamic Bank showed short term bounces, while Mazaya Qatar Real Estate is expected to decline further. The analysis provides short and long term trend outlooks and support and resistance levels for several Qatari stocks and indexes.
AnyConv.com__FSS Advance Retail & Distribution - 15.06.17.ppt
14 October Daily technical trader
1. Page 1 of 2
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QE Index rebounded and gained around 62 points (0.46%) after
a sharp decline in the previous session. The index witnessed a smart
recovery after reaching an intraday low of 13,332.86, as buyers
stepped in and offset all the weakness. If it sustains above 13,450.0
on a closing basis, we believe the index may further proceed ahead
toward the 13,500.0-13,550.0 levels. On the flip side, any retreat
below the 13,450.0 level may result in a pullback.
Nakilat: Short-Term – Bounce Back
QGTS bounced back and moved above QR24.20 after experiencing
a steady decline over the past few days. Further, the stock developed
a bullish engulfing candlestick formation on the daily charts, indicating
a likely continuation of this rebound. With the RSI showing reversal
signs, the stock may progress toward its next resistance of QR24.45,
which is also in proximity to the 55-day moving average. Conversely,
any dip below QR24.20 on a closing basis may test QR23.90.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Bounce Back
The QERI Index reversed and ended the session in the green with a
gain of 0.06%, following a drastic fall on Sunday. The index recouped
all its losses after dipping toward 4,500.0, as sustained buying pushed
it higher. While this is a slight positive sign, the index still remains well
below its crucial level of 4,585.0. Traders should keep a close watch
on, if it attempts to rebound further. Conversely, the index could find
support at the 4,529.0 and 4,500.0 levels.
Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev.: Short-Term – Pullback
MRDS has been in declining mode since moving below the 21-day
moving average. Further, the stock continued to move lower
yesterday and breached the 55-day moving average on the back of
increased volumes, indicating sustained weakness. Moreover, both
the momentum indicators are providing bearish signals. We believe
the stock may not cling on to its immediate support of QR22.90 and
drift down further to test QR22.44 in the coming trading sessions.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Rebound
QIBK found support near QR111.0 and reversed gaining around
0.90%. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish piercing candlestick
formation, which usually indicates a positive signal. Further, the RSI
has turned flat after moving downward over the past few days,
suggesting QIBK may continue its rebound. We believe the stock may
advance toward the 55-day moving average. However, any decline
below QR111.0 on a closing basis may drag the stock down.
Ooredoo: Short-Term – Rebound
ORDS rebounded and advanced 2.99% breaching its resistances of
QR128.0, QR129.70 and the 55-day moving average in a single
swoop. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu
candlestick formation, indicating a likely continuation of this bounce
back. Further, the RSI has shown a bullish divergence, indicating
strength in the current upmove. Thus, traders may consider buying
the stock for a target of QR132.0 with a stop loss of QR130.22.
2. Contacts
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is
regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or
warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express
viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report.
COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS.
Page 2 of 2
*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends.
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
Definitions:
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term
Long Term
First
Second
First
Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,478.12 DOWN DOWN 13,447.17 13,400.00 13,500.00 13,584.34 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,542.05 DOWN DOWN 4,528.58 4,481.57 4,584.50 4,638.81 Banks and Financial Services
Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)
53.10
DOWN
DOWN
52.80
51.80
54.00
55.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.60 DOWN UP 71.50 70.70 72.40 73.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD)
57.90
DOWN
DOWN
57.00
56.20
58.00
59.20 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 112.00 DOWN DOWN 111.00 110.00 113.00 115.00
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD)
86.70
DOWN
DOWN
85.90
84.90
87.80
89.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 99.00 FLAT UP 98.00 97.00 100.00 100.90 Consumer Goods and Services
Consumer Goods Medicare Group (MCGS QD)
127.00
DOWN
UP
126.50
121.50
128.80
130.00 Industrials
Industrials
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)
184.50
DOWN
FLAT
184.00
182.50
186.40
188.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 189.00 DOWN UP 188.00 186.00 190.00 192.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD)
120.00
DOWN
DOWN
119.50
118.10
121.00
122.50 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 55.60 DOWN DOWN 55.20 54.30 56.10 57.70 Real Estate
Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)
40.25
DOWN
DOWN
40.20
39.70
41.00
41.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 27.95 DOWN DOWN 27.85 27.35 28.20 28.45
Ezdan Holding Group (ERES QD)
19.99
FLAT
DOWN
19.71
19.36
20.04
20.36 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Development (MRDS QD)* 22.95 DOWN DOWN 22.90 22.45 23.00 23.35 Telecom
Telecom
Ooredoo (ORDS QD)*
130.90
DOWN
UP
129.70
128.00
132.00
134.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 20.50 DOWN DOWN 20.40 20.00 20.79 21.00 Transportation
Transportation
Nakilat (QGTS QD)*
24.24
DOWN
DOWN
24.20
23.90
24.45
24.61 Milaha (QNNS QD) 95.00 DOWN DOWN 94.50 93.90 95.10 96.50