12 February Daily technical trader


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12 February Daily technical trader

  1. 1. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upswing The QE Index continued its bullish momentum on the back of large volumes, tagging a 52-week high surpassing its previous best of 11,348.45. We believe the index has been witnessing strong gains over the past few days and may resume its next leg of rally toward the 11,400.0-11,450.0 levels. The RSI is moving up toward the overbought territory indicating strength to continue. Conversely, a retreat below 11,338.41 may result in a pullback toward 11,300.0. The QERI Index extended its rally and tagged another new all-time high as bulls continued their domination over the bears for the fourth consecutive session. The index has been aggressively moving up over the past few days and may continue to accelerate, tagging new highs. Moreover, the RSI is trending strongly in the bullish territory, thus supporting a further upmove. However, traders may need to keep a close watch near 3,254.0 for any reversal signs. MARK continued its relentless run and tagged another all-time high. We believe the stock has been in upmove mode since clearing its resistance of QR35.0 and is registering strong gains since then. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are trending higher showing no immediate trend reversal signs. We believe the stock may continue to advance and tag new highs until it trades above QR38.0. Any dip below this level may result in consolidation. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upswing Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Breakout Gulf International Services: Short-Term – Breakout QIBK continued its upmove and tagged another new 52-week high on the back of large volumes. Moreover, the stock has been gaining strength and is gradually moving up over the past few days. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is intact, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line in a bullish manner. We believe the recent price action indicates that the stock may continue to rise, targeting the QR79.0-79.60 levels. VFQS continued to move higher on Monday and breached the resistance of QR12.09 for the first time since November. Notably, volumes were also high on the breakout indicating rising buying interest. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to test and surpass QR12.15, targeting the QR13.0 level. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving strongly in the overbought territory, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line on the upside. GISS managed to surpass the QR84.60 level and tagged an all-time high. We believe based on the momentum of the current higher move the stock is poised to tag new highs. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern indicating the possibility of a continued rise. Meanwhile, the RSI and the MACD lines are in uptrend mode suggesting traders may witness a further rally. However, a dip below the QR84.60 level may halt the upmove. Page 1 of 2
  2. 2. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Short Term Support Long Term First Resistance Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,361.62 UP UP 11,348.45 11,300.00 11,400.00 11,450.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,269.77 UP UP 3,253.72 3,240.37 3,300.00 3,330.00 Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 38.90 UP UP 38.00 36.55 40.00 41.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 70.00 DOWN DOWN 69.50 68.80 70.90 71.80 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 65.00 UP UP 64.00 63.30 65.70 66.00 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 78.60 UP UP 77.70 77.00 79.00 79.60 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 72.50 UP UP 71.50 70.30 73.00 73.50 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 81.60 UP UP 81.00 80.00 82.50 84.60 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 30.70 UP FLAT 29.95 29.15 31.00 31.45 Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 48.20 DOWN DOWN 47.15 46.00 49.30 50.30 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 147.50 UP UP 145.90 142.70 150.00 151.50 Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 175.30 DOWN UP 174.60 173.00 178.30 180.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 181.90 UP UP 180.00 177.20 182.50 184.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD)* 85.70 UP UP 84.60 82.50 87.00 88.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 44.20 DOWN DOWN 43.45 41.00 45.65 47.70 Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 30.65 DOWN FLAT 30.10 29.70 30.85 31.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 22.65 DOWN DOWN 22.38 22.00 22.84 23.10 Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 148.20 UP UP 145.90 144.00 149.00 150.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 12.10 UP UP 12.09 11.60 12.15 13.00 Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.00 UP UP 20.74 20.50 21.07 21.32 Milaha (QNNS QD) 90.60 UP UP 90.00 89.40 91.30 92.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Industrials Industrials Real Estate Real Estate Telecom Telecom Transportation Transportat *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Trading Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa Head of Sales Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2