11 March Daily technical trader


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11 March Daily technical trader

  1. 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE Index continued its upmove for the third consecutive session closing at its intra-day high. The index not only surpassed 11,660.55, but also successfully cleared the 11,700.0 psychological level. We believe the index is gaining strength since moving above the 21-day moving average and may continue its advance toward the 11,750.0- 11,800.0 levels. However, traders may need to keep a close watch on the 11,660.55 level for any reversal signs. Doha Bank: Short-Term – Downmove DHBK has been experiencing a steady decline over the past few days since moving below the QR62.0 level. We believe although the stock is trading exactly at its immediate support of QR60.0, it is unlikely that DHBK may hold onto it and drift lower to test its immediate support at QR58.20. However, if the stock manages to cling onto QR60.0 it may halt its downmove. Meanwhile, both indicators are in downtrend mode with no trend reversal signs. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI Index appreciated by 0.84% to settle above the 3,400.0 level, tagging a new all-time high. The index has been in upmove mode over the past few days since rebounding near the 3,300.0 level. We believe based on the recent price action the index may continue to move higher tagging new highs. Meanwhile, both the momentum indicators are providing bullish signals indicating a further continuation of this rally. However, a dip below 3,409.71 may halt its upmove. United Development Co.: Short-Term – Upmove UDCD surpassed the resistances of QR21.70, QR22.0 and the 21- day moving averages in a single trading session. Moreover, these developments came on the back of large volumes which is a positive sign. With the RSI moving up and the MACD pointing higher, we believe UDCD may extend its upmove toward QR22.50, followed by the 55-day moving average. However, any retreat below the 21-day moving average may test the QR22.0 level. Qatari Investors Group: Short-Term – Breakout QIGD surged 9.93% and cleared the resistances of the 21-day moving average, QR43.45 and QR44.20 in a single swoop on the back of large volumes. We believe the current higher push has enough steam to test and surpass its next resistance at QR45.65, targeting the 55-day moving average. The interim support is at QR44.20; a drop below it could result in QIGD drifting lower toward QR43.45. Meanwhile, both indicators are pointing higher. Ooredoo: Short-Term – Upmove ORDS moved above the resistance of QR141.0 yesterday. Moreover, the stock has been steadily moving up over the past few days since rebounding near the QR134.0 level. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto the QR141.0, it could set the stage for a higher move toward QR143.50. However, any decline below the QR141.0 level may result in a bearish signal. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner toward the mid-line indicating an extension of this rally.
  2. 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 11,710.49 UP UP 11,660.55 11,600.00 11,754.45 11,831.77 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 3,422.04 UP UP 3,409.71 3,382.68 3,432.36 3,450.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD) 38.70 FLAT UP 38.00 36.55 39.10 40.00 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 77.00 UP UP 76.40 75.90 77.50 78.00 Doha Bank (DHBK QD)* 60.00 DOWN DOWN 60.00 58.20 62.00 62.50 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 75.80 DOWN UP 75.00 74.10 76.00 77.00 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 77.30 UP UP 75.80 74.40 77.30 78.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 64.30 DOWN UP 64.00 62.56 66.90 67.50 National Leasing Holding Co. (NLCS QD) 28.10 DOWN DOWN 27.52 27.00 28.50 29.15 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Widam Food Co. (WDAM QD) 42.15 DOWN DOWN 41.90 38.70 42.30 44.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS) 162.00 UP UP 159.00 154.90 164.00 165.00 Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 196.00 UP UP 195.00 192.00 197.70 199.00 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 171.90 UP UP 170.91 168.00 174.36 176.64 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 93.50 UP UP 91.80 88.00 94.00 96.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD)* 44.85 UP DOWN 44.20 43.45 45.65 47.70 Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 32.65 UP UP 32.00 31.60 32.85 33.20 United Development Co. (UDCD QD)* 22.35 UP DOWN 22.00 21.70 22.50 23.00 Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD)* 141.30 DOWN DOWN 141.00 139.90 143.50 145.90 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD) 11.85 DOWN UP 11.60 11.44 12.09 12.40 Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 21.62 DOWN UP 20.90 20.50 21.83 22.19 Milaha (QNNS QD) 93.90 FLAT UP 93.00 91.30 95.10 96.50