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10 July Daily technical trader

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  • 1. Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QE index extended its gains for the third straight session and rose around 168 points (1.34%). The index remained in a bullish mode throughout the day and gained momentum as it cleared the 12,600.0 and 12,700.0 levels in a single swoop. Meanwhile, the index faces its next resistance at 12,768.0. Any close above this level would heighten optimism among traders and the index may test 12,800.0. Conversely, 12,680.0 may act as an immediate support. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove VFQS gained 2.51% and breached both the resistances of QR18.75 and the 21-day average in a single swoop. The stock is current sitting exactly on the 55-day moving average. Traders could consider buying the stock if it trades above this level for a target of QR19.29 with a strict stop loss of QR18.75. Any drop below the QR18.75 level would likely result in a decline toward the 21-day moving average. Meanwhile, both the indicators are providing bullish signals. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Upmove The QERI index continued its bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive day and gained around 1.23% to settle close to the 4,250.0 level. The index has been moving aggressively since the past two days and is now rapidly approaching the 55-day moving average. If the index manages to clear this level, traders should watch out for a test of 4,300.0. On the flip side, the index has a support at 4,211. Meanwhile, both the indicators are looking strong. Industries Qatar: Short-Term – Upmove IQCD moved higher 2.27% and surpassed the resistance of QR178.30 on the back of increased volumes, which is a positive sign. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating a likely continuation of this upmove. Further, both the momentum indicators are indicating that the positive momentum may continue. Traders may consider buying the stock and on declines up to QR179.0 for a target of QR181.40 with a stop of QR178.30. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Upmove MARK continued its advance and cleared the resistances of the 55- day moving average and QR52.60 in a single trading session. We believe if the stock manages to cling onto the QR52.60 level, a further rise toward QR54.0 seems possible. However, any retreat below QR52.60 may drag the stock down. Meanwhile, the RSI is moving up in a bullish manner, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the positive territory, indicating a likely higher move. Qatar Insurance: Short-Term – Uptrend QATI jumped 3.76% and moved above the QR82.50 level, tagging a new all-time high. Notably, volumes were also high on the rise, supporting strength in the upmove. Moreover, the stock developed a bullish Marubozu candle pattern, indicating that the stock may continue its rally to record a new high. Further, both the momentum indicators are pointing higher with no immediate trend reversal signs. However, a dip below the QR83.90 level may halt its uptrend.
  • 2. Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 12,717.00 UP FLAT 12,678.84 12,600.00 12,768.17 12,939.80 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,248.24 UP FLAT 4,211.12 4,148.08 4,311.42 4,350.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 52.80 UP UP 51.00 49.75 54.00 55.20 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 66.50 UP FLAT 65.75 64.92 67.40 68.30 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 57.30 DOWN DOWN 56.50 55.80 57.40 58.10 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD) 97.10 UP UP 96.00 93.90 98.30 99.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 85.00 UP UP 83.50 81.70 85.00 86.10 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD)* 85.50 UP UP 83.90 82.50 87.00 88.50 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 22.58 UP UP 22.35 22.00 22.60 23.00 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 86.10 UP UP 86.00 85.10 87.80 89.80 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 176.00 UP DOWN 175.00 173.89 177.50 180.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD)* 180.00 UP DOWN 178.30 175.50 181.40 182.50 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 183.30 UP DOWN 182.00 180.00 184.00 185.20 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 101.30 UP UP 100.00 98.00 101.50 103.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 56.50 DOWN DOWN 56.10 54.40 57.00 60.60 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD) 40.35 UP UP 40.10 39.75 41.00 41.80 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 25.10 UP UP 24.75 24.00 25.30 26.00 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 135.00 UP DOWN 133.90 131.50 136.00 137.60 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 18.78 UP UP 18.75 18.00 19.30 20.00 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.11 DOWN DOWN 21.80 21.45 22.19 22.45 Milaha (QNNS QD) 95.90 UP UP 95.10 93.00 96.50 98.30

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