1 June Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER
QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend
The QE Index, after consolidating just for a day on Wednesday,
continued its relentless rally and closed at a fresh record high on the
back of huge volumes. The index witnessed a gap-up opening and
reached a new peak of 13,909.87, but later trimmed its gains to settle
near the 13,700.0 mark. We believe the index may continue its
positive momentum tagging new highs, since both the momentum
indicators are supporting the index for a higher move.
Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove
QIBK jumped 8.06% and breached the resistances of QR107.80 and
QR109.0 in a single swoop, tagging a 52-week high. We believe this
strong breach of resistances along with increased volumes has bullish
implications and provides an upside target of QR111.0. Moreover,
both the momentum indicators are in the bullish territory, suggesting
strength. Thus, traders may consider buying this stock at the current
level with a stop loss of QR106.50.
Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend
The QERI Index, after taking a breather on Wednesday, surged a
massive 4.05% to close at its fresh all-time highs. The index showed
a one-way movement and witnessed no reversal signs as the bulls
went berserk. We believe the index has a strong momentum going
and may continue its bullish run, recording new highs. Meanwhile, the
bullishness in the RSI is intact, while the MACD is diverging away
from the signal line, suggesting further acceleration.
Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove
BRES gained 7.60% and cleared the resistances of QR41.40 and
QR42.0 along with the ascending trendline in a single trading session,
to reach a 52-week high. Meanwhile, the stock has been moving
along the ascending channel over the past few days and finally
moved above it on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign.
With both the momentum indicators in the buy-zone, we believe the
stock may continue its upmove targeting the QR44.50 level.
Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Uptrend
MARK moved above QR59.90 and surged 9.88%, touching a fresh
all-time high. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, indicating
increased buyers participation. Moreover, the stock has been in an
uptrend mode and is registering strong gains. Meanwhile, the RSI is
in the buy-zone, while the MACD is widening away from the signal
line in a bullish manner, indicating a continued uptrend. Thus, traders
may consider buying this stock at the current level.
Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Uptrend
VFQS swelled 9.95% and tagged a new all-time high on the back of
large volumes on Thursday. Moreover, the stock closed at a sizable
bullish candle formation, signifying it may attract further buying
interest. Further, the RSI is moving strongly into the overbought
territory, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the positive
territory, indicating further upside. Traders may consider buying this
stock at the current level and on dips up to QR20.0.
Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025
email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com firstname.lastname@example.org email@example.com Doha, Qatar
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regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal,
tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS
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*These stocks are today’s suggested ideas
Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55-
day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT.
Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels.
Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and
Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend.
Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine
tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices.
Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend.
1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be
considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days.
3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day
exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa.
Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance
Short Term Long Term First Second First Second
Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,694.19 UP UP 13,584.34 13,447.17 13,750.00 13,880.00
Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,638.81 UP UP 4,600.00 4,528.58 4,670.00 4,700.00
Banks and Financial Services Banks and
Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 65.60 UP UP 64.90 64.00 67.00 68.50
Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.80 UP UP 70.70 69.80 72.67 73.40
Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.00 DOWN UP 62.00 60.50 63.90 64.80
Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 109.90 UP UP 109.00 107.80 111.00 1113.50
Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 87.20 UP UP 86.10 83.00 87.80 89.00
Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 79.30 UP UP 79.00 78.00 81.40 83.00
Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.60 UP UP 23.49 23.23 24.00 24.50
Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G
Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 87.20 DOWN UP 85.20 83.00 87.80 90.50
Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 186.00 UP UP 185.00 183.00 187.50 190.00
Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 188.80 UP UP 188.50 186.40 191.00 194.60
Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 200.00 UP UP 196.00 194.00 200.00 204.00
Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 93.50 DOWN UP 93.00 91.80 95.00 97.00
Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 67.50 UP UP 64.80 62.40 68.40 70.00
Real Estate Real Estate
Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 43.20 UP UP 42.00 41.40 44.50 46.00
United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.45 UP UP 26.00 25.29 26.45 27.20
Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 155.00 UP UP 153.50 151.00 155.20 157.00
Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 20.78 UP UP 20.00 19.29 21.00 21.50
Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.80 DOWN FLAT 22.45 21.98 23.40 23.90
Milaha (QNNS QD) 89.00 DOWN DOWN 88.00 87.30 90.20 91.30