1 June Daily technical trader
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1 June Daily technical trader 1 June Daily technical trader Presentation Transcript

  • Page 1 of 2 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: QE INDEX AND KEY STOCKS TO CONSIDER QE Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QE Index, after consolidating just for a day on Wednesday, continued its relentless rally and closed at a fresh record high on the back of huge volumes. The index witnessed a gap-up opening and reached a new peak of 13,909.87, but later trimmed its gains to settle near the 13,700.0 mark. We believe the index may continue its positive momentum tagging new highs, since both the momentum indicators are supporting the index for a higher move. Qatar Islamic Bank: Short-Term – Upmove QIBK jumped 8.06% and breached the resistances of QR107.80 and QR109.0 in a single swoop, tagging a 52-week high. We believe this strong breach of resistances along with increased volumes has bullish implications and provides an upside target of QR111.0. Moreover, both the momentum indicators are in the bullish territory, suggesting strength. Thus, traders may consider buying this stock at the current level with a stop loss of QR106.50. Al Rayan Islamic Index: Short-Term – Uptrend The QERI Index, after taking a breather on Wednesday, surged a massive 4.05% to close at its fresh all-time highs. The index showed a one-way movement and witnessed no reversal signs as the bulls went berserk. We believe the index has a strong momentum going and may continue its bullish run, recording new highs. Meanwhile, the bullishness in the RSI is intact, while the MACD is diverging away from the signal line, suggesting further acceleration. Barwa Real Estate Co.: Short-Term – Upmove BRES gained 7.60% and cleared the resistances of QR41.40 and QR42.0 along with the ascending trendline in a single trading session, to reach a 52-week high. Meanwhile, the stock has been moving along the ascending channel over the past few days and finally moved above it on the back of large volumes, which is a positive sign. With both the momentum indicators in the buy-zone, we believe the stock may continue its upmove targeting the QR44.50 level. Masraf Al Rayan: Short-Term – Uptrend MARK moved above QR59.90 and surged 9.88%, touching a fresh all-time high. Notably, volumes were also large on the rise, indicating increased buyers participation. Moreover, the stock has been in an uptrend mode and is registering strong gains. Meanwhile, the RSI is in the buy-zone, while the MACD is widening away from the signal line in a bullish manner, indicating a continued uptrend. Thus, traders may consider buying this stock at the current level. Vodafone Qatar: Short-Term – Uptrend VFQS swelled 9.95% and tagged a new all-time high on the back of large volumes on Thursday. Moreover, the stock closed at a sizable bullish candle formation, signifying it may attract further buying interest. Further, the RSI is moving strongly into the overbought territory, while the MACD has crossed the signal line into the positive territory, indicating further upside. Traders may consider buying this stock at the current level and on dips up to QR20.0.
  • Contacts Saugata Sarkar Abdullah Amin, CFA Shahan Keushgerian Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary QNB Financial Services SPC Head of Research Senior Research Analyst Senior Research Analyst Manager - HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6569 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa abdullah.amin@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 2 of 2 *These stocks are today’s suggested ideas Overall Methodology: The charts and descriptions on Page 1 provide an indicative view of the future direction of the equities mentioned. The table on page 2 has been provided to denote historical movements in certain stocks. The historical trend analysis uses 21- and 55- day SMAs for indicating short-term and long-term trends, respectively. Based on these SMAs, the historical direction of the trend is denoted as UP, DOWN or FLAT. Selection of Key Stocks of the Day: Key stocks’ selection is based on our analysis of 19 members of the QE Index (excludes QNBK QD). Analysis includes identifying trends (short-term as well as long-term), patterns and support/resistance levels. Trend Direction: The methods used to determine trend direction are subjective in nature. We use 21-day SMA and 55-day SMA, absolute price movements, price movements relative to SMAs and accurately drawn trend lines and chart patterns to determine the short- and long-term trends. Investment Horizon: The definition of short term and long term depends upon investors’ preferences and their investment objectives. As a rule of thumb, the time horizon for traders/short-term trend is 1-3 weeks while it is 1-3 months for investors/long-term trend. Combining Technical and Fundamental Analysis: Investors can combine technical analysis (TA) with fundamental analysis (FA) to maximize their investment returns. While the “True Value” of stocks could be estimated by FA, the entry and exit timings could be fine tuned using technical analysis to benefit from short-term movements in stock prices. Trading Tactics: The trend direction should be analyzed based on the time-horizon of your investments. In general, investors attempt selling close to resistance levels during a downtrend and attempt buying close to support levels during uptrend. Definitions: 1> Simple Moving Average (SMA): A SMA is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period. 2> RSI (Relative Strength Index): A technical momentum indicator that ranges from 0 to 100 and compares the stock’s recent price movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought and below 30 could be considered oversold. If the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. On the other hand, if the RSI rises above 30 it is considered bullish. We use a RSI of 14 days. 3> MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): MACD denotes the relationship between two moving averages, which is used to spot changes in strength, direction, momentum and duration of a stock price trend. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the signal line, is also plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy/sell signals. The MACD line above the signal line provides a positive signal and vice versa. Name (Ticker) Last Close Trend Support Resistance Short Term Long Term First Second First Second Qatar Exchange Index (QE Index) 13,694.19 UP UP 13,584.34 13,447.17 13,750.00 13,880.00 Al Rayan Islamic Index (QERI Index) 4,638.81 UP UP 4,600.00 4,528.58 4,670.00 4,700.00 Banks and Financial Services Banks and Masraf Al Rayan (MARK QD)* 65.60 UP UP 64.90 64.00 67.00 68.50 Commercial Bank of Qatar (CBQK QD) 71.80 UP UP 70.70 69.80 72.67 73.40 Doha Bank (DHBK QD) 63.00 DOWN UP 62.00 60.50 63.90 64.80 Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK QD)* 109.90 UP UP 109.00 107.80 111.00 1113.50 Qatar International Islamic Bank (QIIK QD) 87.20 UP UP 86.10 83.00 87.80 89.00 Qatar Insurance (QATI QD) 79.30 UP UP 79.00 78.00 81.40 83.00 Al Khalij Commercial Bank (KCBK QD) 23.60 UP UP 23.49 23.23 24.00 24.50 Consumer Goods and Services Consumer G Medicare Group (MCGS QD) 87.20 DOWN UP 85.20 83.00 87.80 90.50 Al Meera Consumer Goods Co. (MERS QD) 186.00 UP UP 185.00 183.00 187.50 190.00 Industrials Industrials Industries Qatar (IQCD QD) 188.80 UP UP 188.50 186.40 191.00 194.60 Qatar Electricity & Water Co. (QEWS QD) 200.00 UP UP 196.00 194.00 200.00 204.00 Gulf International Services (GISS QD) 93.50 DOWN UP 93.00 91.80 95.00 97.00 Qatari Investors Group (QIGD QD) 67.50 UP UP 64.80 62.40 68.40 70.00 Real Estate Real Estate Barwa Real Estate Co. (BRES QD)* 43.20 UP UP 42.00 41.40 44.50 46.00 United Development Co. (UDCD QD) 26.45 UP UP 26.00 25.29 26.45 27.20 Telecom Telecom Ooredoo (ORDS QD) 155.00 UP UP 153.50 151.00 155.20 157.00 Vodafone Qatar (VFQS QD)* 20.78 UP UP 20.00 19.29 21.00 21.50 Transportation Transportat Nakilat (QGTS QD) 22.80 DOWN FLAT 22.45 21.98 23.40 23.90 Milaha (QNNS QD) 89.00 DOWN DOWN 88.00 87.30 90.20 91.30