1 December Daily market report

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1 December Daily market report

  1. 1. QE Intra-Day Movement Market Indicators 10,420 10,410 10,400 10,390 28 Nov 13 %Chg. 288.5 556,004.9 9.6 4,540 40 18:16 317.4 555,026.7 10.5 4,386 38 15:20 (9.1) 0.2 (8.9) 3.5 5.3 – Market Indices 10,380 10,370 9:30 01 Dec 13 Value Traded (QR mn) Exch. Market Cap. (QR mn) Volume (mn) Number of Transactions Companies Traded Market Breadth 10:00 10:30 11:00 11:30 12:00 12:30 13:00 Qatar Commentary The QE index rose 0.2% to close at 10,395.3. Gains were led by the Insurance and Banking & Financial Services indices, gaining 1.3% and 0.6% respectively. Top gainers were Al Ahli Bank and Islamic Holding Group, rising 9.7% and 5.3% respectively. Among the top losers, Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. Co. fell 6.0%, while Salam International Investment Co. declined 1.8%. Close Total Return All Share Index Banks Industrials Transportation Real Estate Insurance Telecoms Consumer Al Rayan Islamic Index 1D% WTD% YTD% TTM P/E 14,852.53 2,589.61 2,462.34 3,398.33 1,951.11 1,983.09 2,395.56 1,454.25 5,973.71 3,039.38 0.2 0.3 0.6 (0.1) 0.4 (0.6) 1.3 0.0 (0.1) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 (0.1) 0.4 (0.6) 1.3 0.0 (0.1) 0.2 31.3 28.5 26.3 29.4 45.6 23.0 22.0 36.6 27.9 22.2 N/A 13.1 13.2 12.3 13.2 13.6 9.8 19.8 22.7 15.8 GCC Commentary GCC Top Gainers## Exchange Saudi Arabia: The TASI index fell 0.3% to close at 8,301.2. Losses were led by the Transport and Real Estate Development indices, declining 1.2% and 1.1% respectively. Tourism Enterprise Co. fell 3.6%, while Etihad Atheeb Telecommunication Co. was down 2.7%. Al Ahli Bank Abu Dhabi: The ADX benchmark index was closed on December 01, 2013. Kuwait: The KSE index declined 0.6% to close at 7,741.6. The Financial Services index fell 1.3%, while the Oil & Gas index was down 0.9%. KIPCO Asset Management Co. declined 7.8%, while National Petroleum Services Co. was down 7.4%. Oman: The MSM index rose 0.5% to close at 6,757.6. Gains were led by the Industrial index rose 0.8%, while Banking & Investment index was up 0.7%. Areej Vegetable Oils & Derivatives gained 9.9%, while National Gas Co. was up 9.3%. Bahrain: The BHB index declined 0.2% to close at 1,206.4. The Commercial Banking index fell 0.4%. Al Salam Bank declined 1.0%, while Ahli United Bank was down 0.7%. 1D% Qatar 57.60 9.7 3.2 17.6 Comm. Bank of Kuwait Kuwait 0.73 4.3 1.1 2.8 Methanol Chemicals Saudi Arabia 14.60 3.5 5,859.8 9.4 Bank Albilad Dubai: The DFM index was closed on December 01, 2013. Close# Saudi Arabia 36.00 3.4 2,853.6 69.2 2.7 2,985.1 6.9 Bank Muscat Oman ## 0.62 # GCC Top Losers Exchange Etihad Atheeb Telecomm. Saudi Arabia Close Gulf Bank Kuwait Astra Industrial Group Saudi Arabia Gulf Cable & Electrical Kuwait SPIMACO Saudi Arabia Vol. ‘000 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% YTD% 14.40 (2.7) 3,803.1 12.5 0.39 (2.6) 562.7 (5.0) 49.50 (2.5) 615.6 26.9 0.88 (2.2) 60.75 (2.0) 78.5 (30.2) 151.9 39.0 Source: Bloomberg (# in Local Currency) (## GCC Top gainers/losers derived from the Bloomberg GCC 200 Index comprising of the top 200 regional equities based on market capitalization and liquidity) Al Ahli Bank Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Qatar Exchange Top Losers Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% 57.60 Qatar Exchange Top Gainers 9.7 3.2 17.6 Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. Co. 41.60 (6.0) 0.2 (26.9) Salam International Inv. Co. 12.24 (1.8) 1,328.8 (3.3) 39.6 Islamic Holding Group 41.70 5.3 182.1 9.7 Medicare Group 54.90 2.6 369.0 53.8 Qatar Navigation 88.10 (1.6) 64.0 Qatar International Islamic Bank 61.50 2.3 327.3 18.3 Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. 11.44 (1.4) 669.0 4.0 Qatar Gas Transport Co. 21.30 2.2 2,754.2 39.6 Qatari Investors Group 39.30 (0.9) 393.8 70.9 Close* 1D% Vol. ‘000 YTD% Close* 1D% Val. ‘000 YTD% Qatar Gas Transport Co. 21.30 2.2 2,754.2 39.6 Qatar Gas Transport Co. 21.30 2.2 58,366.7 39.6 Salam International Investment Co. 12.24 (1.8) 1,328.8 (3.3) Masraf Al Rayan 33.25 0.8 27,925.3 34.1 Masraf Al Rayan 33.25 0.8 840.1 34.1 Qatar International Islamic Bank 61.50 2.3 20,137.8 18.3 Vodafone Qatar 11.1 0.0 706.4 32.9 Medicare Group 54.90 2.6 20,111.1 53.8 11.44 (1.4) 669.0 4.0 Salam International Inv. Co. 12.24 (1.8) 16,250.9 (3.3) Qatar Exchange Top Vol. Trades Mazaya Qatar Real Estate Dev. Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Source: Bloomberg (* in QR) Regional Indices Qatar* Dubai Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia Kuwait Oman Bahrain Qatar Exchange Top Val. Trades Close 1D% WTD% MTD% YTD% 10,395.32 2,945.91 3,849.84 8,301.15 7,741.62 6,757.62 1,206.36 0.2 N/A N/A (0.3) (0.6) 0.5 (0.2) 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (0.6) 0.5 (0.2) 0.2 0.0 0.0 (0.3) (0.6) 0.5 (0.2) 24.4 81.6 46.3 22.1 30.5 17.3 13.2 Exch. Val. Traded ($ mn) 79.25 N/A N/A 1,036.70 79.93 30.75 0.49 Exchange Mkt. Cap. ($ mn) 152,734.6 70,205.0# 110,441.3# 450,946.5 109,972.6 24,211.8 49,761.2 P/E** P/B** 13.3 17.4 10.7 17.1 17.0 10.6 8.1 1.8 1.2 1.3 2.1 1.2 1.6 0.8 Dividend Yield 4.4 3.0 4.7 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 # Source: Bloomberg, Qatar Exchange, Tadawul, Muscat Securities Exchange, Dubai Financial Market and Zawya (** TTM; * Value traded ($ mn) do not include special trades, if any) ( Data as of Nov. 28, 2013) Page 1 of 5
  2. 2. Qatar Market Commentary  The QE index rose 0.2% to close at 10,395.3. The Insurance and Banking & Financial Services indices led the gains. The index rose on the back of buying support from non-Qatari shareholders despite selling pressure from Qatari shareholders.  Al Ahli Bank and Islamic Holding Group were the top gainers, rising 9.7% and 5.3% respectively. Among the top losers, Qatar Cinema & Film Dist. Co. fell 6.0%, while Salam International Investment Co. declined 1.8%. Overall Activity Buy %* Sell %* Net (QR) Qatari 72.16% 77.60% (15,682,482.04) Non-Qatari 27.84% 22.40% 15,682,482.04 Source: Qatar Exchange (* as a % of traded value)  Volume of shares traded on Sunday declined by 8.9% to 9.6mn from 10.5mn on Thursday. Further, as compared to the 30-day moving average of 10.8mn, volume for the day was 11.8% lower. Qatar Gas Transport Co. and Salam International Investment Co. were the most active stocks, contributing 28.8% and 13.9% to the total volume respectively. News Qatar  QNCD to expand capacity by 7,500 tons per day – As expected, Qatar National Cement Company (QNCD) has decided to expand its capacity. The company will add another 7,500 tons per day taking its total clinker capacity to ~18,500 tons per day after the expansion. QNCD plans to sign a contract with global company FLSmidth in this regard. QNCD has already signed a letter of intent (LoI) with FLSmidth and the contract is expected to be signed next month. The company expects to invest QR1.2bn for completing this facility. The new facility will be operational in 24 months after the signing of the contract (and the start of construction). The expansion is in line with our estimates and we expect EPS to jump from QR8.45 in 2012 to QR12.81 in 2016e. We also expect the firm to announce a cash dividend of QR6.00 per share with FY2013 results (dividend yield of 5.74%). In our view, QNCD’s focus on Qatar makes it one of the pure infrastructure/construction plays on the Qatar growth story; we recommend an Accumulate rating with a target price of QR116.25. (QNBFS Research, Peninsula Qatar)  CBQK’s shareholders approve 25% non-Qatari ownership – The Commercial Bank of Qatar’s (CBQK) shareholders have approved a 25% ownership for non-Qatari investors in the bank’s share capital. The shareholders have also approved the issue of QR2bn as additional Tier 1 capital. (Bloomberg)  MDPS: Qatar population surges to 2.068mn in November – According to the Ministry of Development Planning & Statistics (MDPS), Qatar’s population has continued to surge and reach 2.068mn by the end of November, due to heavy influx of foreign workers for mega development projects. The population stood at 2.024mn by the end of October and it was slightly higher at 2.035mn in September. This figure shows total people in country rather than residents. (Peninsula Qatar)  Foreign workers remit QR49.3bn in 2012 – According to data released by the Qatar Central Bank (QCB), remittances by foreign workers totaled QR49.3bn in 2012, up 3.8% over 2011. Remittance volumes were QR47.5bn in 2011. QCB said the economically active non-Qatari population that made much of this money transfer grew to 1.3mn in 2012. (Peninsula Qatar)  Ezdan Holding, Sharp Corp sign MoU – Ezdan Holding Group has signed a MoU with Sharp Corporation Global to source all the electrical devices and smart systems for the real estate group’s units. (Peninsula Qatar)  Vodafone, NetComm to bolster M2M in Qatar – Vodafone Qatar and NetComm Wireless Ltd announced a strategic partnership to extend Vodafone Qatar’s fixed and mobile networks for devices and machines that enable Smart City applications. These applications include security systems, intelligent transport systems, smart metering and smart medical devices. (Peninsula Qatar) International  HSBC: China manufacturing activity eases in November – HSBC said Chinese manufacturing activity expanded at a slightly slower rate in November, supported mainly by domestic demand. HSBC's purchasing managers' index (PMI) stood at 50.8 in November, the second-highest reading in eight months despite easing marginally from October's 50.9. However, it is well up from the preliminary estimate of 50.4 HSBC gave on November 21. (ET)  Osborne pledges reduction in UK Consumers’ energy bills – Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne has pledged that domestic power customers will benefit from a reduction in government levies for energy companies. The proposal, outlined by Prime Minister David Cameron and Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg, will cut the average energy bill by about £50 per year. The government will fund some of the costs currently included in consumer energy bills. (Bloomberg)  UK to pledge extra £250mn for Business Bank – The Department for Business said UK government will announce that it will provide an extra £250mn to increase lending to small businesses through its so-called business bank. The Department added that Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Business Secretary Vince Cable will announce the additional funding for the bank, which will be based in Sheffield, northern England. The money will support initiatives including capital support for new market entrants, later stage venture capital and asset-based finance. (Bloomberg)  NDRC: China 2014 inflation seen at lower end of 3-5% range – The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said China's consumer price inflation is likely to be at the lower end of a 3-5% range next year. NDRC researchers Xu Lianzhong and He Xiaoying said that it will be higher than the 2.7% forecast for 2013. They added prices will face relatively heavy pressure to rise next year, prices of agricultural products, especially pork, will rise faster next year than this year. (ET)  Japan 3Q2013 capex rises, BOJ Kuroda warns of overseas risks – Japanese companies raised spending on factories and equipment in the July-September quarter, but the slow pace of increase casts some doubt on the strength of capital spending Page 2 of 5
  3. 3. that is needed to help sustain economic growth. Japan’s Ministry of Finance data showed the 1.5% YoY rise in capital spending followed a flat reading in the prior quarter and marked the first gain in four quarters, but the result disappointed some economists who were expecting stronger gains. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said capital expenditure will likely increase as a trend, though he warned that overseas uncertainties were among key risks in meeting the central bank's goal of accelerating inflation to 2% in roughly two years. (Reuters) Regional  SAMA: Saudi banks’ liquidity ratio eases to 11.79% – According to the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), the aggregate liquidity ratio of Saudi commercial banks fell to 11.79% in October 2013 from 12.35% in previous month. The liquidity ratio, which accounts for bank reserves over total deposits, declined due to a 5% MoM drop in bank reserves held in the form of cash in the vault or as deposits with SAMA to SR158bn outpacing 0.2% MoM contraction in total deposits held by commercial banks to SR1.342tn in October. Meanwhile, the rising propensity of Saudi households and corporate clients to borrow for consumption and investment purposes (claims on private sector) pushed aggregate bank credit extended by Saudi banks up by 0.6% MoM to SR1.112tn in October. Total deposits held by commercial banks contracted by 0.2% MoM to SR1.342tn. As a result, the ratio of bank claims on the private sector to total deposits at commercial banks moved higher to 82.89% in October from 82.14% in September. (Bloomberg)  S&P: Gulf seeks sukuk for refinancing; mega infrastructure investments – According to S&P, Islamic bonds (sukuk) are being increasingly sought in the Gulf region due to low yields, as well as increased demand for refinancing and funding for mammoth infrastructure sector spending. The renewed investor interest comes in the wake of the US Federal Reserve’s delay in tapering of its quantitative easing. Infrastructure plans include investments in power and water projects, expansion related to events like the FIFA World Cup in Qatar in 2022, along with corporate companies aiming to diversify their funding sources. S&P said, in a tougher regulatory environment, issuers are likely to turn to alternative sources of funding in the capital markets, with corporate and infrastructure entities in the Gulf favoring sukuk. (Gulf-Times.com)  SAMA: Saudi M3 money supply slows to 10.4% in October – According to the data released by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), Saudi Arabia's M3 money supply growth has slowed to a 14-month low of 10.4% YoY in October 2013 from 13.4% in September 2013. Growth in bank lending to the private sector slowed to 13.5% from 14.6% – the lowest level since May 2012. Meanwhile, SAMA data also showed that its net foreign assets reached a record high of SR2.66tn in October. (GulfBase.com)  SRO signs $67.2mn contract to import 500 wagons – The Saudi Railways Organization’s (SRO) President General Eng. Mohammed bin Khalid Al Suwaiket signed a contract worth $67.2mn with American Freight Car Inc. to import 500 wagons. This step aims to modernize SRO's fleet of freight wagons, which transport cement, grains, lime and rocks. (Bloomberg)  ACWA Power led consortium signs PPA with SEC – A consortium led by ACWA Power International has entered into a power purchase agreement (PPA) with the Saudi Electricity Company (SEC) to finance, build and operate the SR5.1bn Rabigh II power project. This consortium, which also includes Samsung C&T, will set up a split venture with SEC to establish Al Mourjan for Electricity Production Company. ACWA said that 74% of this project will be financed through senior debt, while the rest will be in the form of equity bridge loans. This project will deliver 2,060MW of electricity to SEC under a 20-year agreement, beginning from the scheduled commercial operational date of June 2017. (GulfBase.com)  Saud Consult partners to acquire 40% stake in PGESCo – The Saudi Consulting Services (Saud Consult) has partnered with BPE Power and BPE Investments to acquire a 40% stake in Egypt-based Power Generation Engineering & Services Company (PGESCo). Under this agreement, Saud Consult will acquire 20% shares in PGESCo, while BPE Power and BPE Investments together will acquire the remaining 20% stake. (GulfBase.com)  Al Khodari Sons gets SR170mn Islamic credit facilities from SAIB; renews SR824.3mn Islamic facilities with Riyadh Bank – Abdullah A M Al Khodari Sons Company has obtained Islamic credit facilities worth SR170mn from Saudi Investment Bank (SAIB). Al Khodari Sons will utilize 47% of these facilities under Murabaha and 53% will be utilized for multi-bonds, documentary credit and foreign exchange hedging. These facilities are secured by promissory notes and assignment of contract proceeds of the financed projects. This agreement is renewable when it expires on April 30, 2014. Meanwhile, Al Khodari Sons has renewed its existing Islamic facilities agreement worth SR824.3mn with Riyadh Bank. Al Khodari Sons will utilize these facilities under Tawarroq, progress payment, multi-bonds, documentary credit and Murabaha financing. These facilities consist of 45% of Tawarroq, Murabaha and 55% of multi-bonds, documentary credit, and are secured by promissory notes and assignment of the contract proceeds of the financed projects. This credit facilities agreement is renewable when it expires on September 17, 2016. (Tadawul)  BDB receives its first dry bulk vessel – Bahri Dry Bulk (BDB) has received its first dry bulk vessel “Bahri Arasco”. This is the first vessel delivered among the five vessels that were contracted in 2012. The financial impact of this vessel will be visible in 4Q2013. The remaining four vessels are expected to be delivered in 1H2014. (Tadawul)  PAL resume flights to Riyadh, Dammam – Philippine Airlines (PAL) has resumed its flights to Riyadh from December 1, 2013 and Dammam from December 3, 2013. The airline had suspended flights to Riyadh in March 2011, while flights to Dammam were suspended in August 2001. (GulfBase.com)  AIG appoints new Group CEO – Astra Industrial Group (AIG) has appointed Mohammad Abdullah Al Hagbani as the new CEO of the group. Al Hagbani has 10 years of extensive experience and has held the post of General Manager for Investment Research at the General Organization for Social Insurance. He was also a senior member in the investment group at Al Rajhi Bank. (Tadawul)  UAE approves extra AED20bn spending on development projects – The UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahayan has announced an additional spending of AED20bn on approved development projects. Sheikh Khalifa added that 10,000 new homes will be built for Emiratis across the UAE and the housing funds allocated to citizens under the Sheikh Zayed program has been increased to AED800,000 from AED500,000 currently. The latest spending allocations are AED7.4bn for developing roads that link Abu Dhabi with Saudi Arabia and Dubai. Another AED4.3bn will go towards building a hospital in the city of Al Ain. (GulfBase.com) Page 3 of 5
  4. 4.  Kuwait's inflation eases to 2.7% in October – Kuwait's inflation has eased down to 2.7% in October 2013 from 2.9% in September 2013, despite a spurt in the prices of food & beverages. The prices of food & beverages – accounting for 18% of the basket – have risen by 3.5% YoY (+0.2% MoM) in October. In September, analysts polled by Reuters had forecasted an average inflation of 3.4% in 2013 and 4% in 2014. (GulfBase.com)  Zain wants to retain control of Zain Bahrain after IPO – The Mobile Telecommunications Company’s (Zain) CEO Scott Gegenheimer said the company wants to retain majority control of its Bahraini subsidiary, Zain Bahrain after the unit's IPO. However, Zain is yet to agree the exact terms of the share sale. Zain currently holds a 56.3% stake in Zain Bahrain and would no longer be a majority owner after the IPO. (Reuters)  Wataniya appoints new COO – The National Mobile Telecommunications Company (Wataniya) has appointed Peter Kaliaropoulos as the company’s new COO. (Reuters)  Khaleeji Commercial, Al Khair starts due diligence for merger – Bahrain-based Khaleeji Commercial Bank said it has appointed service providers which have started to conduct due diligence process for possible merger with Bank Al Khair. Meanwhile, Khaleeji Commercial Bank has appointed Khalil Al Meer as its new CEO. (Bloomberg) Page 4 of 5
  5. 5. Rebased Performance Daily Index Performance 160.0 150.0 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 0.8% 0.5% 149.4 0.4% S&P Pan Arab S&P GCC Asset/Currency Performance Gold/Ounce Silver/Ounce Crude Oil (Brent)/Barrel (FM Future) Natural Gas (Henry Hub)/MMBtu North American Spot LPG Propane Price North American Spot LPG Normal Butane Price Euro Oman Source: Bloomberg (*Market closed on December 01, 2013) Close ($) 1D% WTD% YTD% Global Indices Performance Close 1D% WTD% YTD% 1,253.49 0.0 0.0 (25.2) DJ Industrial 16,086.41 0.0 0.0 22.8 19.99 0.0 0.0 (34.1) S&P 500 1,805.81 0.0 0.0 26.6 109.69 0.0 0.0 (1.3) NASDAQ 100 4,059.89 0.0 0.0 34.5 3.79 0.0 0.0 10.6 STOXX 600 325.16 0.0 0.0 16.3 116.00 0.0 0.0 28.9 DAX 9,405.30 0.0 0.0 23.6 138.75 0.0 0.0 (21.4) FTSE 100 6,650.57 0.0 0.0 12.8 1.36 0.0 0.0 3.0 102.44 0.0 0.0 18.1 GBP 1.64 0.0 0.0 0.7 CHF 1.10 0.0 0.0 1.0 AUD 0.91 0.0 0.0 (12.4) USD Index 80.68 0.0 0.0 RUB 33.12 0.0 0.0 BRL 0.43 0.0 0.0 (12.2) Yen Bahrain Jul-13 Source: Bloomberg Dubai* QE Index May-12 Dec-12 (0.6%) Kuwait (0.8%) Oct-11 (0.2%) (0.3%) Qatar (0.4%) Jan-10 Aug-10 Mar-11 0.0% 0.0% Saudi Arabia 118.6 0.0% Abu Dhabi* 0.2% 130.6 4,295.21 0.0 0.0 18.0 15,661.87 0.0 0.0 50.7 MSCI EM 1,018.28 0.0 0.0 (3.5) SHANGHAI SE Composite 2,220.50 0.0 0.0 (2.1) HANG SENG 23,881.29 0.0 0.0 5.4 1.1 BSE SENSEX 20,791.93 0.0 0.0 7.0 8.5 Bovespa 52,482.49 0.0 0.0 (13.9) 1,402.93 0.0 0.0 (8.1) Source: Bloomberg CAC 40 Nikkei RTS Source: Bloomberg Contacts Saugata Sarkar Ahmed M. Shehada Keith Whitney Sahbi Kasraoui Head of Research Head of Trading Head of Sales Manager - HNWI Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6533 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.shehada@qnbfs.com.qa keith.whitney@qnbfs.com.qa sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa QNB Financial Services SPC Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666 PO Box 24025 Doha, Qatar DISCLAIMER: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of Qatar National Bank (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange; QNB is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. While this publication has been prepared with the utmost degree of care by our analysts, QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS. Page 5 of 5

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