Etude PwC sur les perspectives des véhicules électriques (2013)


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Dans son étude « Charging forward », l’institut d’analyse automobile PwC Autofacts publie ses prévisions et interroge 200 professionnels de 34 pays sur les perspectives des véhicules électriques.

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Etude PwC sur les perspectives des véhicules électriques (2013)

  1. 1. Charging forwardPwC’s 2012 electric vehicle survey
  2. 2. IntroductionThe automotive industry has and continues to deal with a number of issues thatthreaten its growth potential. The earthquake and tsunami that crippled theJapanese supply chain in 2011, the ongoing debt crisis in the European Union thathas resulted in massive production cuts and subsequently accelerated the need torightsize operations, and the recent effects of Hurricane Sandy in the US, destroyingsome 250,000 vehicles from the nation’s vehicle parc. While each of these events havecreated their own unique challenges, participants must also keep a diligent focuson the issues of tomorrow. From a regulatory standpoint, meeting global emissionstandards has become an increasingly daunting task for the industry. The G8 hasset a goal of reducing global emissions 50% by 2050. While each region/market willhave their own unique path to achieve this goal, the automotive sector will be a keyarea of focus.According to the World Resources engines, advanced transmissions, andInstitute, motor vehicles are a broader rollout of various hybrid,responsible for more than 15% of plug-in, and pure electric applications,global CO2 emissions. As expected, all of which have and will play a rolethis mandate has driven a number in meeting various global regulations.of new innovations and development Electric vehicles (EVs) continue to beof next-gen technologies. From at the forefront of the discussion, asimprovements in aerodynamics, the well as a polarizing issue within theintroduction of lightweight materials, industry around just how big of a rolelow rolling resistance tires, various they will play in meeting the previouslyefficiency gains in internal combustion mentioned standards. The G8 has set a goal to reduce global emissions 50% by 2050.
  3. 3. About the survey/methodologyCharging Forward: Electric Vehicle Survey 2012 was developedto provide a check-up on some of the major determining factorsfor the success of EVs in the near-mid-and long-term. More than200 participants from 34 countries representing the automotive,utilities, energy, technology, government, finance, and educationsectors provided their feedback. Selected results have been included,along with additional thoughts from PwC on the present and futureoutlook of EVs.The survey focuses on four key areas:• infrastructure• pricing• geography• outlookThe survey findings cover a range of issues. We welcome you toexplore the results and accompanying point of view to gain a betterunderstanding of EV’s and will drive their success. Please to view additional PwC publications on thisand other relevant industry topics.
  4. 4. As of August 2012 Infrastructure: Building a better tomorrowthere were 4,756 publiccharging stations in Figure 1: Developing a sustainable EV infrastructurethe country according Which do you feel is most crucial to developing a sustainable EV infrastructure?to the Alternative FuelsData Center2. Source: Charging Forward: Electric Vehicle Survey 2012 Over 40% of respondents felt that providing them. This is clearly evidenced by the broad a sufficient number of conveniently located opinion of survey participants. When asked charging and battery swap locations is what the ideal ratio of fast charging (~80% the most crucial element in developing a charge in less than 30 minutes) stations to sustainable EV infrastructure. Integrating EVs on the road should be, 25% responded charging stations into existing and future 1:20, while 20% felt 1:5 was the ideal ratio. infrastructures, in addition to having them As these were the top two responses, it draw from clean energy sources are key appears the industry is far from a consensus components in the development of Smart on the issue. It is important to note, however, Cities. Municipalities continue to work with that the rollout of plug-in (PHEV) and pure private interests to further this cause, which electric (PEV) applications are still in their is still in relative infancy. Allowing consumers infancy. As of November 2012, there were easy access to charging stations is a hurdle a total of 11 PHEV (4) and PEV (7) models that must be overcome, which prompts the available for sale in the US, accounting for question, how many charging stations will just over .3% of total light vehicle sales.1 By be needed? Answering this question can comparison, as of August 2012 there were be particularly tricky, since the number of 4,756 public charging stations in the country stations will be dependent on the number according to the Alternative Fuels Data of EVs on the road and vice versa, a classic Center.2 The number of charging stations chicken or the egg scenario. The issue is will surely increase with an expansion in EV further clouded when determining the ratio offerings, but the ideal ratio between the two of Level 1-4 stations and exactly where to put is yet to be determined. 1. Ward’s Automotive Reports - October 2012 ( 2. Alternative Fuels Data Center (’s 2012 electric vehicle survey 1 | PwC
  5. 5. Pricing: Striking a balance with consumers Figure 2: Justifying the premium What is the most likely reason that consumers would be willing to pay a premium for an EV? Source: Charging Forward: Electric Vehicle Survey 2012 Nearly 46% of respondents felt that long- mass adoption is possible. While progress term cost savings are the most likely reason continues to be made, a price premium below that consumers would be willing to pay a $5,000 is not anticipated within the next premium for an EV (see Figure 2). Of course, five years unless a significant technological just how much consumers are willing to pay is breakthrough is achieved (e.g. metal-air another question, especially when considering battery technology). the increasing fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles via the use Automakers are fully aware that cost remains of off the shelf technologies such as direct the primary prohibitive factor for consumers. injection and turbo–charging at a significantly As a result, several OEMs currently offer lower premium. When asked how much of a significantly subsidized leasing options for price premium consumers would be willing to their EVs in order to stimulate sales. When pay for an EV, the top response for both PHEVs asked which business model they felt was the (57.9%) and PEVs (47.4%) was US$0-$5,000. most appealing to consumers considering The primary cost burden for EVs continues an EV, over 44% of respondents answered to be the battery systems. While costs for leasing, higher than purchasing a vehicle and batteries have continued to decrease thanks to battery (34.5%) and purchasing a vehicle improved efficiencies and volume increases, while renting the battery (21.2%). Leasing they are still prohibitive in terms of competing currently appears to be the best option for with ICE vehicles. Though estimates vary, the consumers driving a vehicle with first-gen cost per kilowatt hour (kWh) is believed to technology for two reasons: 1) the subsidized be $400-$600. Taking the low-end estimate lease price is affordable and largely on par on a vehicle with a 24 kWh battery equates with lease prices for ICE vehicles, and to a roughly $9,600 premium. While the 2) they are not responsible for the upfront payback period will vary based on fuel prices and replacement cost for the battery. While and the efficiency gains versus an ICE vehicle, subsidized leasing is not sustainable in the it still represents a significant variance with long-term, it does provide a good approach to the ideal premium that survey respondents get consumers familiar and comfortable with feel is necessary. The question is not if, but the technology. when, battery costs will reach a point wherePwC’s 2012 electric vehicle survey 2 | PwC
  6. 6. By 2020 the Geography: Leading the waydevelopment andproduction of EVs Figure 3: Future leadershipand supporting Which country / region will lead in the development and production of EVs and supportingtechnologies will shift technologies in 2020?to more of a globalcollaboration model. Source: Charging Forward: Electric Vehicle Survey 2012 On the question of who is the current leader global markets, and particularly in the US. in the development and production of While recent announcements have helped to EVs and supporting technologies, the top solidify the fact that overcapacity currently response was Japan (28.4%) followed closely exists within the market and that further by global collaboration / no clear leader consolidation amongst the major battery (27.6%) and the United States (20.7%). producers is likely, increased investment Several Japanese OEMs have established in both R&D and capacity is expected to themselves as leaders in green technology continue as the industry sets its sights on with the introduction of numerous hybrid future demand. applications over the last 10 or more years, giving them a decided advantage in the Perhaps it is for these reasons that eyes of consumers looking for fuel efficient respondents felt that by 2020 the vehicles (see Figure 3). However, EVs development and production of EVs and have become a significant area of focus supporting technologies will shift to more by a number of global OEMs, and their of a global collaboration model. As we efforts have been further boosted through have increasingly seen in the automotive collaboration with suppliers and support industry, global implementation of products from their respective governments who want and technologies has been important, and to make EVs a cornerstone of their national necessary to maintain competitiveness. The energy policies. While a large majority of same is likely to ring true for EVs, where battery capacity remains located in Asia- global collaboration will be key to accelerate Pacific, a shift consistent with overall vehicle the value proposition, regardless of where production trends (build where you sell) is development and production ultimately takes expected in the mid-to-long-term. Significant place. investment has already been made in keyPwC’s 2012 electric vehicle survey 3 | PwC
  7. 7. Outlook: What does the future hold? Figure 4: Best future technology By 2020, which alternative fuel technology will offer the best mix of cost effectiveness and practi- cality (i.e. ease of use, accessibility, etc.)? (micro, mild, & full) PHEVs PEVs / BEVs Hydrogen Not Sure Compressed Natural Gas Liquid Natural Gas E85 / Flex-fuel Liquefied Petroleum Gas Other Hybrids Source: Charging Forward: Electric Vehicle Survey 2012 When we look at the options currently showings. It should be noted that the share available in the market, there is little for each of these respective technologies will argument over which alternative fuel vary by market and OEM, based on specific technology offers the best mix of cost needs, incentives, and core competencies. effectiveness and practicality, as almost It does however, reinforce the idea that no 41% of respondents indicated hybrids were one technology is expected to dominate the the best option, with compressed natural industry. There are many winding paths gas (CNG) coming in a distant second to compliance, with each alternative fuel (13.9%). However, the outlook for 2020, not solution offering merit. In an effort to diversify surprisingly, becomes increasingly clouded. their technological expertise on increasingly When asked, respondents still felt that strained R&D budgets, a growing level of hybrids offered the best balance (25.3%), global collaboration is expected between but PHEVs (19.3%), PEVs / BEVs (13.2%), OEMS, suppliers and other innovative and hydrogen (11.4%) all had strong companies to maximize their collective knowledge and resources.PwC’s 2012 electric vehicle survey 4 | PwC
  8. 8. Figure 5: Global Hybrid + EV Assembly Forecast 2011 – 2020 (millions)PwC’s Autofacts group Figure 5: Global hybrid & EV outlookis forecasting global 8 7%hybrid & EV share to 6.28% 5.97%reach 6.3% in 2020, 7 5.44% 6% 5.24%up from roughly 1.7% 6 4.95% 4.60% 5%in 2011. 4.08% 5 3.54% 4% 4 2.83% 3% 3 1.74% 2% 2 1 1% 0 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Mild Hybrid Full Hybrid PHEV PEV Global Share (R-Axis) Source: Autofacts Analysis PwC Source: Autofacts 2012 Q4 Data Release 1 PwC’s Autofacts group is forecasting global Progress towards mainstream EV adoption hybrid and EV share to reach 6.3% in 2020, is clearly being made, but developing cost- up from roughly 1.7% in 2011. Traditional effective offerings with acceptable range hybrid applications will still comprise the while simultaneously overhauling power bulk of alternative propulsion vehicles grids to support millions of vehicles cannot (3.3%), with PHEVs (1.8%) and PHEVs happen overnight. Rather, the emergence (1.2%) providing additional support (see of vehicle electrification is best seen as a Figure 5). Beyond 2020, these technologies generational change. Continued investment will continue to gain incremental market in research and development to improve EV share, ramping up at an accelerated rate as efficiencies along with ongoing efforts to long-term emission standards draw closer. create clean energy solutions will ultimately determine their level of success. Electric vehicles are here to stay; just don’t expect one to be parked in every driveway anytime soon.PwC’s 2012 electric vehicle survey 5 | PwC
  9. 9. Considerations for successThe PwC’s 2012 electric vehicle survey results highlight several keyissues and questions industry participants should “ask and consider”:• What are the key recently passed and pending regulatory issues that you should be concerned with, and what are the potential impacts on your business and sector?• What type of public / private investment support is available?• Who should you reach out to if you’re interested in cross-sector collaboration?• What are some of the best practices to follow in order to maximize your potential for success?• What are you doing to differentiate yourself in this fast paced and highly competitive segment?• What are the key sets of knowledge and resources needs to address the unique challenges that this sector presents?
  10. 10. About Autofacts®Autofacts, PwC’s automotive forecasting service, is a provider of automotive marketanalysis, strategy development, and competitive intelligence to the world’s leadingvehicle manufacturers, automotive suppliers, and support organizations. Autofactsservice offerings are available on-demand, for one-time purchases and through anannual subscription basis to access the on-line portal with Autofacts’ proprietary dataquery tool. For more information regarding Autofacts, please visit their website PwC’s automotive practicePwC’s global automotive practice leverages its extensive experience in the industry tohelp companies solve complex business challenges with efficiency and quality. One ofPwC’s global automotive practice’s key competitive advantages is Autofacts®, a teamof automotive industry specialists dedicated to ongoing analysis of sector trends.Autofacts provides our team of more than 4,700 automotive professionals and ourclients with data and analysis to assess implications, make recommendations, andsupport decisions to compete in the global marketplace.ContactsRick Hanna Tom McGuckinGlobal and US Automotive Leader Asia-Pacific Automotive 394 3450 +86 21 2323 3588Oliver Hazimeh Aaron SikoraAutomotive Cleantech US Automotive Sustainability LeaderTransportation Leader +1 313 394 6852313 298 2237 Aaron TweadeyFelix Kuhnert DirectorEuropean Automotive Leader +1 248 719 6722+49 711 25034 3309Brandon MasonAutofacts Senior 313 394 6098
  11. 11.© 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the US member firm, and may sometimesrefer to the PwC network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see for further details. This content is for generalinformation purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors.PwC US helps organizations and individuals create the value they’re looking for. We’re a member of the PwC network of firms with 169,000 people in morethan 158 countries. We’re committed to delivering quality in assurance, tax and advisory services. Tell us what matters to you and find out more by visiting usat MW-13-0245