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Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)
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Etude PwC marché automobile mondial (2013)

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D’après les dernières prévisions de PwC Autofacts, institut d’analyse du marché automobile de PwC, l’assemblage de véhicules légers devrait atteindre au niveau mondial 81,8 millions d'unités en 2013, soit un gain de 3,3% sur un an.

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  • 1. Analyst Note> Autofacts R October 2013 Quarterly Forecast Update Industry poised to end year on a good note Despite ongoing concerns in select regions, the stabilisation of several key automotive markets in 2013 has positioned the global automotive industry to forge ahead with technological innovation, further driving strategic partnerships and increased merger and acquisition activity. Global: Year-over-year (YoY) Assembly Change by Region 2012 vs. 2013(f) Developing Asia-Pacific South America Eastern Europe North America European Union Developed Asia-Pacific Middle East & Africa (ME&A) 9.61% 4.94% 5.95% 4.94% -0.91% -4.57% -16.13% Source: Autofacts 2013 Q4 Data Release Year in review While there is seldom an occasion where the global industry has performed in sync, 2013 does promise to mark a turning point for the European Union, setting the region up for a long awaited, albeit slight, recovery in 2014. This will bring the region in line with the recent recoveries in North America and Eastern Europe and the continued growth in Developing Asia-Pacific and South America. Areas of concern remain, however, as developed Asia-Pacific (Japan, South Korea, Australia) is expected to see assembly declines throughout the forecast window. Stagnant economic conditions, high labor costs, and localisation of products currently tagged for export are all factors constraining production in these markets. ME&A is also experiencing a significant decline as sanctions against Iran and political uncertainty within the region remain prevalent. Despite these setbacks, global light vehicle production is expected to reach 81.8m units in 2013, representing a 3.3% YoY gain. 1 Autofacts Looking beyond the numbers, several key developments began to take shape during 2013 that promise to have a significant impact on the global automotive outlook going forward. Announced in July 2013, the formation of a strategic partnership between GM and Honda to develop next-gen fuel cell technologies represents a growing trend of strategic collaborations and resource pooling to drive and deliver innovation to the masses. Although M&A activity is down in 2013, companies continue to strengthen and/or broaden their capabilities. The pace of acquisitions is expected to quicken, particularly in the areas of fuel economy and safety systems. Furthermore, OEMs and suppliers in developing markets will seek to acquire distressed companies with established capabilities in these areas, setting the stage for more geographically balanced – and competitive – core competencies in the future. For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 2. Analyst Note Plus North America Key Regional Statistics Key Statistics (YTD) US light vehicle sales +8.1% Canada light vehicle sales +5.0% Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR +2.8% Argentina light vehicle sales +18.7% +6.9% +8.9% Regional assembly +11.2% +3.4% Mexico light vehicle sales +2.5% Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR % Change (YoY) Brazil new light vehicle registrations Brazil light vehicle assembly Key Statistics (YTD) % Change (YoY) Sales All three countries in the North America continue to grow at impressive rates, with the US leading on a volume basis and Mexico on a percentage basis. The US market has sold more vehicles through September than it did all of 2010 and should easily surpass last years 14.4m units for the full year. Autofacts sees full-year 2013 sales reaching 15.6m units – the region’s fourth consecutive year with gains of over a million units. For 2014, Autofacts expects sales to reach 16.2m units which, though not as large as recent growth, would still represent a healthy gain. The question at hand for the US will now shift towards where the natural rate of demand will be now that the market has essentially recovered from the lows of 2009. Autofacts anticipates that demand for new vehicles will fluctuate between 16m to 17m units by the end of the decade. Canada is currently on track to have a record year for new vehicle sales, surpassing the previous high of 1.69m units in 2007. Autofacts currently forecasts Canadian sales to reach 1.74m units for the full year. Assembly Though mature and stable, the North American topline continues to expand with increasing vehicle sales and further investments by OEM’s in the region. The region is now forecasted to produce nearly 16.2m units in 2013, the highest number since 2002. Capacity in the region is forecasted to grow from 15.4m units in 2012 to 18.4m units in 2017. South America Key Regional Statistics Sales Encouraging growth seen in Brazil during the first 2 Autofacts half of the year has dissipated, even as the IPI tax holiday winds down in October. Stimulus measures including lowered interest rates have been offset by tighter credit restrictions in lending, restraining fullyear 2013 sales forecast to ~1.3% YoY growth. Brazil’s auto industry trade group, ANFAVEA, is aiming to improve the sales climate by lobbying for a change in leasing requirements that would shift the onus of taxes and fines from lenders to vehicle owners. Current leasing structures hold financial institutions accountable for payment of these fees, but a transfer of responsibility could encourage banks to increase lease lending and in turn, boost auto sales. While no changes have been enacted to date, the proposed modifications are expected to pass and could become effective before the end of the year. Argentina has enjoyed impressive YoY growth in new car sales, hitting record highs in the summer before slowing its pace in August. While the overall economy is expected to grow at less than 3%, auto sales have surged in 2013 with imports accounting for the majority of the growth in sales volume. As inflation and volatile currency exchanges continue to dog the economy, cars are considered safer investments, bolstering sales growth. Assembly In contrast to the stagnant sales market, the assembly volumes in Brazil have seen steady growth with full-year 2013 assembly expected to reach ~3.4m units. Several global OEMs, including GM, Volkswagen and Daimler, have announced capacity investments in the next few years, pushing assembly to just under 4m units by 2015. More announcements import tariffs continue incentivizing OEMs to produce locally. Meanwhile, Argentinean production has been impacted by the sluggish Brazilian sales market, seeing an overall decline in demand from their largest trading partner. Though assembly has not kept pace with sales, full year 2013 year growth of ~7.7% is still For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 3. Analyst Note Plus expected. As with much of region, Argentina’s expansion hinges on multiple monetary and economic policy variables, most of which are subject to significant state intervention and thus remain volatile. European Union + EFTA Key Regional Statistics Key Statistics (YTD) % Change (YoY) New car sales -4.0% Sales forecast (full year) -3.0% Regional assembly -0.9% Regional 2012-2019 CAGR +2.5% Sales As predicted previously, this past summer is likely to have marked the bottom of the EU market following over five years of decline. Q3 2013 saw the first quarterly YoY growth in two years with a 2.6% improvement. Full-year registrations are expected to reach 12.15m – a 3% decline. Within the region, many markets are beginning to see growth with some of the hardest hit markets showing signs of sustained growth. Portuguese sales have increased over four consecutive months with a 15.7% rise in the third quarter, and Hungary has experienced seven consecutive months of gains with a 20% increase in the third quarter. Elsewhere, concerns remain regarding France, Italy and Germany, suggesting that total YoY growth in the fourth quarter could be lower than seen in the third quarter. The German market is underperforming given the low unemployment rates and strength of consumer sentiment, but it remains to be seen whether weakness is due, at least in part, to consumers holding off until the full outcome of the elections is known. Meanwhile, the UK – the region's second largest market and also the strongest performing market this year – has grown 10.8% year-to-date (YTD). However, fourth quarter YoY growth will likely be significantly lower, as demand was particularly strong in late 2012. For 2014, Autofacts anticipates growth of 3.5% to just under 12.6m units, with demand being constrained by continued high unemployment and weak economic growth in many European countries . As unemployment is expected to fall through 2014 and economic growth within the region starts to gain 3 Autofacts traction towards 2015, demand for new cars should increase. Assembly If assembly output is any indication, the low point has passed within the EU markets. Indeed, light vehicle assembly has shown surprisingly strong growth in select markets in the third quarter, with OEMs adding capacity and working days for the production of key models. Autofacts has revised the EU assembly forecast to 15.8m units for the full 2013, which is a meager 0.9% YoY decline. The 2014 outlook is expected to show signs of recovery with 3.2% growth forecasted as exports stabilise and vehicle output within the region is more closely tied to demand growth. Recent announcements regarding the planned assembly localisation by select OEMs will boost the assembly topline over the mid term. Approximately 500k units of assembly could be added, pushing regional output past the 17m mark by 2015 and also helping to push utilisation above 80% by 2016. Eastern Europe Key Regional Statistics Key Statistics (YTD) % Change (YoY) Russia new light vehicle registrations -6.4% Russia light vehicle assembly -0.6% Turkey light vehicle assembly +12.6% Regional 2012-2019 CAGR +6.0% Sales New vehicle sales and registrations within the Eastern European region continue to show diverse results between markets. Registrations are still on the downtrend in Russia with seven consecutive months of decline, prompting ministry officials to offer interest rate subsidies to stimulate sales. The program, enacted in July and continuing into 2014, is expected to boost sales by an estimated 250k units. Early consumer response has been positive, resulting in a reduction in the forecasted full-year decline of 5.9%, down from 6.1%. After a tough year in 2012, Turkey seemed back on track with sustained growth in 2013. September marked the first month of YoY decrease (-2.4%) due For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 4. Analyst Note Plus to a number of factors, including shrinking domestic demand and a weakening export market. Additionally, the Turkish lira has depreciated against the US dollar due in part to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. The unfavorable currency rates have constrained the import market which is primarily financed through bank loans. This current contraction is expected to be short lived, with fullyear 2013 sales in Turkey forecasted to reach 840k units for a 8.2% growth over 2012. Moderate but sustainable growth is anticipated for the surrounding Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) going into 2014 and beyond, as countries like Kazakhstan continue to see increases in domestic demand as well as regional exports. Assembly Though the sales market has seen a slowdown in Russia, assembly remains slightly positive, with an additional ~12k units of output in 2013 as compared to 2012 to reach just under 2.1m units. More definitive growth is expected for 2014 and beyond, with investments by global OEMs looking to shift away from importing and increase domestic production. Turkey is already seeing a boost in locally produced models, including significant capacity increases for the Hyundai i10 and Toyota Corolla. Full-year 2013 production is expected to total ~1m units and reach nearly 1.2m units by 2014. Sales The Japanese light vehicle sales market continues to post declines, though it should be noted that 2012 growth was due in large part to the eco car cash incentives that pulled ahead sales. Even so, Japanese brands continue to struggle within their home market. Smaller, more efficient vehicles like minis and hybrids remain popular, increasing their respective market shares to 41% and 15%. Import sales volume s, though a relatively low portion of the total market at 172k units, are also experiencing robust growth, gaining a full percentage of market share from 4% to 5%. The long term outlook for the market as a whole remains bleak as an aging, urbanised population continues to contract with demand falling accordingly. Perhaps a silver lining can be found with the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which could stimulate the economy and spur growth in auto sales. Vehicle sales in Australia grew to 737k units YTD, putting the market on pace for another year of sales surpassing the 1m unit mark. SUVs, particularly those with diesel engine variants, continue to gain favor with consumers with a 30% share of the total market. Meanwhile, once popular domestically sourced sedans have now dipped below 10% market share – a reflection of the quickly-shrinking assembly base. Other developing CIS nations are expanding assembly as well, increasing their production potential in hopes of attracting capacity investments. The region is rife with opportunity, and as long as progress continues, these emerging countries could become future assembly bases as OEMs continue towards the mantra of “build it where you sell it.” Consumers in South Korea have shown a marked shift towards imports, which have jumped 29% YoY as domestic brands have been holding flat in terms of sales. Free trade agreements and generous discounts have made import prices much more competitive, enticing consumers to shop beyond the confines of their home market brands. However, the South Korean population is experiencing demographic shifts not unlike that of Japan, suggesting a slower pace of growth in the long-term. Developed Asia-Pacific Australia, Japan, and South Korea Assembly Key Statistics (YTD) % Change (YoY) Japan light vehicle sales -8.0% South Korea light vehicle sales +3.0% Australia light vehicle sales +4% Regional assembly -4.6% Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR Concurrent declines in domestic sales and export volumes have resulted in decreased total assembly volumes in Japan, which are expected to decrease YoY by 6.8% to reach just over 8.7m for the full year. Though the Yen exchange rates have become more favourable to Japanese OEMs in recent months, investment in R&D centers, powertrain plants, and supplier parks within growing overseas markets is expected to continue. This long-term transition will require an industry-wide focus on addressing excess capacity going forward. -1.1% 4 Autofacts For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 5. Analyst Note Plus With recent withdrawals from the Australian assembly base, volumes are expected to remain relatively flat around 250k units for the remainder of the decade. OEMs are expected to shift their product mixes to better reflect consumer preferences for SUVs, but such programs may not be sustainable should parliament discontinue incentives to retain manufacturing operations within Australian borders. Also holding flat are South Korean assembly volumes, growing at a scant 0.14% YoY to reach just under 4.4m units. Increasing labor costs, disruptive strikes, and the strengthening Won are all impacting the overall appeal of maintaining the country as an export base, and all will likely be factors as OEMs reconfigure their global footprint. With these constraints in mind, total South Korean assembly volume is forecasted to hover around the 4.5m mark for the remainder of the forecast window. Developing Asia-Pacific China and India Key Statistics (YTD) % Change (YoY) China light vehicle sales +13.5% China Light vehicle assembly +11.8% India light vehicle sales -8.0% India light vehicle assembly -5.1% Assembly CAGR 2012 to 2019 +7.7% China The sales environment in the Chinese market continued to grow throughout the first three quarters of the year, supported by strong consumer demand and a relatively low basis in 2012. YTD light vehicle sales have reached12.5m units for a positive gain when compared YoY. SUVs continue to outpace other segments, reporting an increase of 47.1% in YTD sales through August. Most major brands have brought recent introductions and/or refreshed crossover and SUV models to market to cash in on this trend. Sales are expected to remain strong through the remainder of the year despite economic uncertainty. Consumer sentiment has improved thanks to the official implementation of stricter vehicle recall policies, which are aimed to encourage higher quality through stiff penalties for delayed recall 5 Autofacts announcements. This, combined with anticipated product launches, will help encourage consumers to visit their local dealerships. Full-year 2013 sales are expected to reach 18.1m units, a 14.4% increase over 2012. It should be noted that Q4 2012 numbers were impacted by the territorial dispute over the Senkaku – Diaoyu islets. The closing months of 2013 should show a marked improvement over 2012 given the subsequent recovery of Japanese brands. China light vehicle assembly has also enjoyed continued expansion, with YTD assembly reaching 13.1m. Japanese brands are expected to increase their production to continue recovering lost market share. Though the year started off with slower production, strong consumer demand has driven higher levels of assembly, with full-year 2013 assembly expected to reach 18.5m units. India Until recently, India was seen as a high-potential, upcoming market with automakers benefitting greatly from a burst in consumer-driven growth in overall consumption, including new light vehicles. However, the industry is now struggling along with the national economy. Once growing over 50% between 2010 to 2012, sales of new vehicles are now in their ninth consecutive month of decline. Sagging customer demand has been compounded by a combination of deflating conditions. The growing current account deficit– a reflection of the widening gap between imports and exports – has triggered fluctuations in the dollar to Rupee exchange rate. While the currency has rebounded since plunging to all-time lows in August, the auto sector faces additional industry-specific hurdles. Utility vehicles, which reign as one of the most popular segments, are now subject to a 3% tax, while high financing costs and rising fuel prices are dampening hopes for a turnaround in demand. As monsoon season comes to an end, there is hope that perhaps the downturn will soon be a thing of the past, particularly for rural households whose income has the potential to give a much needed boost to the Indian light vehicle market. However, the slow pace of policy reform and the widespread infrastructure issues will continue to restrain sales in the short term. Full-year sales is forecasted to decline by over 5% for 2013, with hope that the new year will help boost consumer sentiment and in turn, sustainable growth in sales and assembly for the remainder of the forecast window. For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 6. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data - Global Growth analytics (2012-2017) Region1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR 1 Asia-Pacific - developing 24,517,872 26,869,862 29,985,847 33,157,119 36,246,221 38,475,473 13,957,601 56.9% 9.4% 62.1% 1 2 European Union 15,915,153 15,770,608 16,267,392 17,494,732 18,342,376 18,756,292 2,841,139 17.9% 3.3% 12.6% 3 3 North America 15,395,983 16,159,124 16,789,907 17,492,206 17,871,117 18,406,259 3,010,276 19.6% 3.6% 13.4% 2 4 Asia-Pacific - developed 13,973,140 13,334,889 13,303,820 13,199,781 13,053,183 13,060,688 -912,452 -6.5% -1.3% -4.1% 7 5 South America 4,171,558 4,504,482 4,710,604 5,202,280 5,778,910 6,088,041 1,916,483 45.9% 7.9% 8.5% 4 6 Eastern Europe 3,477,104 3,683,936 3,968,579 4,298,634 4,600,708 4,901,262 1,424,158 41.0% 7.1% 6.3% 5 7 Middle East & Africa 1,798,824 1,508,615 1,561,357 1,688,720 1,862,921 2,041,409 242,585 13.5% 2.6% 1.1% 6 Global total assembly 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 5.1% 100.0% Global total capacity 101,908,978 106,372,936 112,878,507 120,437,439 125,163,201 125,550,516 23,641,538 23.2% 4.3% 22,659,344 24,541,420 26,291,001 27,903,967 27,407,765 23,821,092 1,161,748 5.1% 1.0% 77.8% 76.9% 76.7% 76.8% 78.1% 81.0% Global excess capacity Global utilisation (%) Country CTG % Rank2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR 1 China 16,696,064 18,483,049 20,706,735 23,080,285 25,155,718 26,584,689 9,888,625 59.2% 9.7% 44.0% 2 USA 10,097,912 10,899,425 11,668,762 12,239,215 12,568,368 12,915,180 2,817,268 27.9% 5.0% 12.5% 2 3 Japan 9,359,348 8,725,480 8,621,405 8,414,025 8,298,129 8,247,445 -1,111,903 -11.9% -2.5% -4.9% 52 4 Germany 5,645,037 5,553,945 5,576,088 5,748,887 5,923,726 6,187,879 542,842 9.6% 1.9% 2.4% 9 5 South Korea 4,384,596 4,390,690 4,427,454 4,521,544 4,501,071 4,550,320 165,724 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 18 6 India 3,425,285 3,320,802 3,474,624 3,864,083 4,527,925 5,131,886 1,706,601 49.8% 8.4% 7.6% 3 7 Brazil 3,109,008 3,396,837 3,597,534 3,980,955 4,483,115 4,692,702 1,583,694 50.9% 8.6% 7.0% 4 8 Mexico 2,847,732 2,917,970 2,940,150 3,158,454 3,250,892 3,383,961 536,229 18.8% 3.5% 2.4% 10 9 Thailand 2,313,284 2,696,605 2,919,141 3,181,813 3,410,355 3,539,623 1,226,339 53.0% 8.9% 5.5% 5 10 Spain 1,944,656 2,098,781 2,244,922 2,588,567 2,763,196 2,837,222 892,566 45.9% 7.8% 4.0% 6 11 Russia 2,087,860 2,099,680 2,238,099 2,414,108 2,639,883 2,837,315 749,455 35.9% 6.3% 3.3% 7 12 Canada 2,450,339 2,341,729 2,180,995 2,094,537 2,051,857 2,107,118 -343,221 -14.0% -3.0% -1.5% 51 13 France 1,950,044 1,822,344 1,926,742 2,017,717 2,235,381 2,319,130 369,086 18.9% 3.5% 1.6% 13 14 United Kingdom 1,558,165 1,592,162 1,557,026 1,685,346 1,711,707 1,733,732 175,567 11.3% 2.2% 0.8% 17 945,577 1,124,017 1,442,492 1,507,317 1,574,886 1,608,903 663,326 70.2% 11.2% 3.0% 8 16 Turkey 1,005,200 1,097,103 1,166,286 1,283,226 1,342,576 1,422,390 417,190 41.5% 7.2% 1.9% 12 17 Czech Republic 15 Indonesia CTG % Rank 1 1,088,377 1,011,659 1,111,395 1,161,287 1,165,859 1,174,817 86,440 7.9% 1.5% 0.4% 23 18 Italy 635,165 576,438 621,324 957,028 1,109,123 1,167,750 532,585 83.8% 13.0% 2.4% 11 20 Argentina 736,336 793,638 766,387 848,524 906,713 977,053 240,717 32.7% 5.8% 1.1% 15 1,063,403 698,636 677,727 732,501 850,096 976,819 -86,584 -8.1% -1.7% -0.4% 49 21 Slovakia 779,411 817,037 831,563 797,388 777,167 718,286 -61,125 -7.8% -1.6% -0.3% 48 22 Malaysia 547,478 607,186 765,274 820,421 857,499 881,465 333,987 61.0% 10.0% 1.5% 14 23 Poland 635,841 582,772 556,818 604,160 667,585 654,218 18,377 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 37 24 South Africa 538,799 537,947 575,975 608,624 619,678 633,263 94,464 17.5% 3.3% 0.4% 22 25 Hungary 230,727 325,140 465,037 497,144 451,645 414,749 184,022 79.8% 12.4% 0.8% 16 26 Belgium 504,633 441,721 414,589 299,944 307,849 318,574 -186,059 -36.9% -8.8% -0.8% 50 27 Romania 338,182 411,131 372,907 354,981 348,323 347,065 8,883 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 41 28 Taiwan 315,922 340,038 355,958 351,517 359,319 354,284 38,362 12.1% 2.3% 0.2% 32 29 Uzbekistan 243,603 265,870 253,494 261,204 267,776 277,983 34,380 14.1% 2.7% 0.2% 33 30 Australia 229,196 218,719 254,961 264,212 253,983 262,923 33,727 14.7% 2.8% 0.2% 34 31 Morocco 108,726 184,962 215,463 232,358 248,195 258,809 150,083 138.0% 18.9% 0.7% 19 32 Sweden 151,183 142,763 150,959 228,177 257,191 259,640 108,457 71.7% 11.4% 0.5% 21 33 Colombia 149,749 151,126 174,995 184,907 188,232 197,079 47,330 31.6% 5.6% 0.2% 28 34 Pakistan 151,814 153,074 163,290 176,051 176,515 181,756 29,942 19.7% 3.7% 0.1% 36 35 Slovenia 130,949 84,881 127,836 166,401 188,409 170,983 40,034 30.6% 5.5% 0.2% 30 78,399,601 80,905,357 85,544,407 91,326,908 96,439,942 100,327,011 21,927,410 28.0% 5.1% 97.5% 98.9% 98.9% 98.8% 98.7% 98.7% 98.6% 97.5% 20 Iran Top 35 total assembly Top 35 (% of global total) 1Developed Asia-Pacific includes Australia, Japan, South Korea | Developing Asia-Pacific includes China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam 2Rankings based on contribution to total global growth (CTG%). Source: Autofacts Global Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook 2013 Q4 Data Release (Updated October 01 2013) 6 Autofacts October 2013 For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 7. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data - Global Growth analytics (2012-2017) Alliance group 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR 10,589,068 10,665,006 10,836,569 11,022,746 11,174,085 11,411,592 822,524 7.8% 1.5% 3.7% 9 2 GM Group 9,375,145 9,803,594 10,218,378 10,766,942 11,639,801 12,161,075 2,785,930 29.7% 5.3% 12.4% 1 3 VW Group 9,184,443 9,563,663 9,900,626 10,661,606 11,527,849 11,954,017 2,769,574 30.2% 5.4% 12.3% 2 4 Renault-Nissan 8,023,485 8,048,195 8,839,747 9,689,230 10,176,969 10,536,836 2,513,351 31.3% 5.6% 11.2% 3 5 Hyundai Group 7,182,498 7,520,959 7,827,461 7,959,059 8,404,049 8,744,268 1,561,770 21.7% 4.0% 6.9% 6 6 Ford Group 5,456,831 6,067,175 6,304,561 6,794,493 7,191,385 7,393,243 1,936,412 35.5% 6.3% 8.6% 4 7 Fiat Group 4,402,225 4,309,137 4,399,083 5,049,898 5,737,443 6,152,532 1,750,307 39.8% 6.9% 7.8% 5 8 Honda Group 4,069,175 4,390,264 4,960,185 5,299,797 5,393,121 5,501,202 1,432,027 35.2% 6.2% 6.4% 7 9 PSA Group 3,079,569 3,159,426 3,372,918 3,620,519 3,778,591 3,975,185 895,616 29.1% 5.2% 4.0% 8 10 Suzuki Group 2,455,203 2,306,651 2,352,701 2,444,991 2,463,554 2,689,893 234,690 9.6% 1.8% 1.0% 19 11 BMW Group 1,917,852 2,044,141 2,077,931 2,197,657 2,313,997 2,404,673 486,821 25.4% 4.6% 2.2% 14 12 Daimler Group 1,732,727 1,864,060 1,982,371 2,144,347 2,145,872 2,293,872 561,145 32.4% 5.8% 2.5% 11 13 Mazda 1,327,881 1,423,460 1,619,898 1,724,378 1,746,766 1,827,489 499,608 37.6% 6.6% 2.2% 13 14 Mitsubishi Group 1,104,103 1,189,377 1,419,732 1,525,383 1,498,254 1,502,978 398,875 36.1% 6.4% 1.8% 15 943,756 979,823 1,110,975 1,303,174 1,385,152 1,466,287 522,531 55.4% 9.2% 2.3% 12 1,035,616 899,508 1,064,493 885,910 1,163,735 977,618 1,237,841 1,185,363 1,284,361 1,367,344 1,273,957 1,492,758 238,341 593,250 23.0% 66.0% 4.2% 10.7% 1.1% 2.6% 18 10 18 Great Wall 645,497 758,574 760,880 812,508 894,764 943,531 298,034 46.2% 7.9% 1.3% 17 19 Dong Feng 680,771 728,580 734,864 745,966 734,991 760,980 80,209 11.8% 2.3% 0.4% 28 20 Chery Auto 590,701 518,147 654,291 755,285 878,192 938,311 347,610 58.8% 9.7% 1.5% 16 Top 20 total assembly 74,696,054 77,290,635 81,514,524 86,941,183 91,736,540 95,424,679 20,728,625 27.8% 5.0% 92.2% Top 20 total capacity 92,760,354 96,903,411 102,374,547 109,595,395 113,841,435 114,250,431 21,490,077 23.2% 4.3% 90.9% Excess capacity 18,064,300 19,612,776 20,860,023 22,654,212 22,104,895 18,825,752 761,452 4.2% 0.8% 100.0% 80.5% 79.8% 79.6% 79.3% 80.6% 83.5% Unit diff. % chg CAGR 5,729,959 4896.0% 118.6% 1 Toyota Group 15 Geely Group 16 Chang'an Group 17 Tata Group Global utilisation (%) Platform CTG % Rank 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 117,033 1,052,806 2,024,485 4,227,384 5,573,664 5,846,992 25.5% 1 2 HD 2,476,850 2,864,858 2,902,775 2,878,964 3,023,216 3,242,786 765,936 30.9% 5.5% 3.4% 16 3 MC (Toyota Motor Corporation) 3,186,827 3,327,878 3,243,274 2,997,011 2,541,209 1,707,308 -1,479,519 -46.4% -11.7% -6.6% 385 4 C1/P1 2,081,575 2,400,903 2,237,893 2,396,493 2,364,356 2,464,502 382,927 18.4% 3.4% 1.7% 33 5 PQ35/46 (A5) 4,106,435 3,232,515 2,678,048 1,630,627 1,069,452 985,782 -3,120,653 -76.0% -24.8% -13.9% 386 6 X85/B 1,913,339 1,871,375 1,939,999 2,024,664 2,018,795 2,100,670 187,331 9.8% 1.9% 0.8% 54 7 GLOBAL DELTA 1,528,738 1,560,474 1,621,395 1,808,573 2,067,817 2,729,367 1,200,629 78.5% 12.3% 5.3% 7 8 NF 1,619,693 1,662,940 1,621,534 1,768,305 1,971,117 1,965,553 345,860 21.4% 3.9% 1.5% 36 9 HGSC 1,266,551 1,447,107 1,815,615 1,808,260 1,872,370 2,008,536 741,985 58.6% 9.7% 3.3% 17 866,609 1,393,223 1,530,607 1,753,717 2,123,744 2,231,576 1,364,967 157.5% 20.8% 6.1% 4 11 NBC 1,760,019 1,651,163 1,712,460 1,735,907 1,546,558 1,184,579 -575,440 -32.7% -7.6% -2.6% 381 12 MINICAB 1,458,294 1,496,369 1,486,542 1,502,337 1,494,700 1,568,384 110,090 7.5% 1.5% 0.5% 66 951,239 1,186,428 1,404,946 1,625,478 1,772,018 1,800,726 849,487 89.3% 13.6% 3.8% 14 14 CARRY 1,426,999 1,269,537 1,365,217 1,354,239 1,313,850 1,267,985 -159,014 -11.1% -2.3% -0.7% 355 15 150L 1,278,209 1,251,645 1,470,783 1,378,790 1,284,355 1,295,452 17,243 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 134 16 X84/C 1,712,659 1,668,120 1,237,912 1,071,481 937,252 1,053,111 -659,548 -38.5% -9.3% -2.9% 382 17 B0 (Renault) 1,006,884 1,150,378 1,172,712 1,299,304 1,466,716 1,582,058 575,174 57.1% 9.5% 2.6% 24 18 FIAT/GM 199/4400 1,344,607 1,294,877 1,330,435 1,348,548 977,569 908,544 -436,063 -32.4% -7.5% -1.9% 373 19 MLB 1,001,953 1,063,384 1,130,168 1,208,039 1,247,614 1,462,622 460,669 46.0% 7.9% 2.0% 27 20 IMV 1,134,149 1,103,028 1,136,577 1,159,559 1,175,258 1,202,112 67,963 6.0% 1.2% 0.3% 87 32,238,662 33,949,008 35,063,377 36,977,680 37,841,630 38,608,645 6,369,983 19.8% 3.7% 28.3% 40.7% 41.5% 40.5% 40.0% 38.7% 38.0% 28.3% 1 MQB 10 GLOBAL GAMMA 13 B2E Top 20 total assembly Top 20 (% of global total) 7 Autofacts October 2013 CTG % Rank For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 8. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data - Global Growth analytics (2012-2017) Brand 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR 1 Toyota 8,227,545 8,271,188 8,367,027 8,460,881 8,572,841 8,766,240 538,695 6.5% 1.3% 2.4% 10 2 Volkswagen 6,265,324 6,477,696 6,532,405 7,015,506 7,494,991 7,645,970 1,380,646 22.0% 4.1% 6.1% 3 3 Ford 5,371,299 5,965,254 6,169,705 6,605,414 6,898,364 7,086,488 1,715,189 31.9% 5.7% 7.6% 1 4 Chevrolet 4,850,991 5,114,329 5,475,092 5,781,409 6,141,961 6,353,937 1,502,946 31.0% 5.5% 6.7% 2 5 Nissan 4,618,921 4,637,039 5,161,325 5,378,728 5,370,883 5,476,366 857,445 18.6% 3.5% 3.8% 6 6 Hyundai 4,465,491 4,694,422 4,926,928 4,962,462 5,245,108 5,521,091 1,055,600 23.6% 4.3% 4.7% 5 7 Honda 3,823,990 4,162,206 4,722,123 4,991,291 4,970,857 5,075,245 1,251,255 32.7% 5.8% 5.6% 4 8 Kia 2,700,661 2,805,246 2,853,117 2,949,761 3,110,401 3,177,150 476,489 17.6% 3.3% 2.1% 16 9 Renault 2,124,621 2,057,784 2,098,533 2,344,529 2,653,007 2,740,043 615,422 29.0% 5.2% 2.7% 9 10 Peugeot 1,812,031 1,828,337 1,906,724 2,038,037 2,148,825 2,215,384 403,353 22.3% 4.1% 1.8% 17 11 Fiat 1,873,105 1,748,878 1,691,534 1,865,835 2,241,599 2,390,468 517,363 27.6% 5.0% 2.3% 13 12 Mercedes-Benz 1,624,676 1,772,002 1,887,606 1,994,294 1,990,951 2,148,261 523,585 32.2% 5.7% 2.3% 12 13 BMW 1,603,075 1,708,872 1,760,604 1,842,465 1,898,369 1,972,730 369,655 23.1% 4.2% 1.6% 19 14 Audi 1,469,197 1,601,384 1,703,028 1,850,000 1,894,584 2,004,078 534,881 36.4% 6.4% 2.4% 11 15 Mazda 1,327,881 1,423,460 1,619,898 1,724,378 1,746,766 1,827,489 499,608 37.6% 6.6% 2.2% 14 16 Suzuki 1,460,480 1,397,280 1,523,926 1,556,303 1,573,492 1,600,919 140,439 9.6% 1.9% 0.6% 42 17 Citroen 1,267,538 1,331,089 1,466,194 1,582,482 1,629,766 1,759,801 492,263 38.8% 6.8% 2.2% 15 18 Wuling 1,383,305 1,403,522 1,450,579 1,462,938 1,449,767 1,520,944 137,639 10.0% 1.9% 0.6% 43 19 Mitsubishi 1,030,404 1,091,331 1,307,396 1,419,515 1,399,817 1,407,209 376,805 36.6% 6.4% 1.7% 18 875,260 1,032,722 1,060,289 1,216,206 1,516,421 1,547,200 671,940 76.8% 12.1% 3.0% 8 58,175,795 60,524,041 63,684,033 67,042,434 69,948,770 72,237,013 14,061,218 24.2% 4.4% 62.6% 73.4% 74.0% 73.5% 72.5% 71.6% 71.0% 62.6% 20 Buick Top 20 total assembly Top 20 (% of global total) Brand Nameplate CTG % Rank 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR 1 Toyota Corolla 1,198,249 1,170,453 1,263,224 1,229,445 1,210,340 1,262,997 64,748 5.4% 1.1% 0.3% 2 Ford Focus 1,040,077 1,129,343 995,605 932,617 1,054,209 1,127,210 87,133 8.4% 1.6% 0.4% 77 3 Ford F-Series 843,933 919,729 1,005,660 902,832 900,534 898,655 54,722 6.5% 1.3% 0.2% 164 4 Toyota Camry 858,421 869,499 859,040 885,685 909,514 905,243 46,822 5.5% 1.1% 0.2% 198 5 Hyundai Elantra/i30 764,844 848,300 809,436 786,054 833,925 951,760 186,916 24.4% 4.5% 0.8% 13 6 Ford Fiesta 715,832 738,415 744,515 800,067 884,818 911,348 195,516 27.3% 4.9% 0.9% 11 7 Volkswagen Golf 626,208 625,196 751,348 899,098 929,705 927,212 301,004 48.1% 8.2% 1.3% 3 8 Chevrolet Cruze 769,470 734,015 745,464 750,894 783,559 775,603 6,133 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 671 9 Honda CR-V 698,421 755,687 732,287 708,466 742,042 759,634 61,213 8.8% 1.7% 0.3% 138 10 Honda Civic 717,377 717,557 702,871 704,883 688,399 711,500 -5,877 -0.8% -0.2% 0.0% 1223 11 Volkswagen Polo 668,642 648,143 650,729 656,977 758,350 795,367 126,725 19.0% 3.5% 0.6% 12 Volkswagen Passat 604,468 589,736 586,680 646,510 710,959 720,783 116,315 19.2% 3.6% 0.5% 43 13 Toyota Hilux Vigo 622,860 610,336 618,250 627,410 630,375 648,206 25,346 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 350 14 Honda Accord 546,470 650,989 644,158 629,568 647,501 637,089 90,619 16.6% 3.1% 0.4% 75 15 Hyundai Sonata/i40 549,618 524,553 520,309 538,938 619,641 630,478 80,860 14.7% 2.8% 0.4% 87 16 Hyundai Tucson/iX35 554,374 556,181 502,803 520,611 548,174 591,701 37,327 6.7% 1.3% 0.2% 257 17 Chevrolet Silverado 508,821 544,182 563,009 557,899 542,655 555,155 46,334 9.1% 1.8% 0.2% 201 18 Toyota Prius 497,279 564,866 530,193 539,133 533,252 538,900 41,621 8.4% 1.6% 0.2% 229 19 Wuling Sunshine 523,274 489,196 510,193 531,231 540,363 569,756 46,482 8.9% 1.7% 0.2% 200 20 Chang'an SC63/10 Series 500,466 445,529 514,137 498,217 512,854 450,694 -49,772 -9.9% -2.1% -0.2% 1407 13,809,104 14,131,905 14,249,911 14,346,535 14,981,169 15,369,291 1,560,187 11.3% 2.2% 6.9% 17.4% 17.3% 16.5% 15.5% 15.3% 15.1% 6.9% Top 20 total assembly Top 20 (% of global total) 8 Autofacts October 2013 CTG % Rank 128 37 For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 9. Analyst Note Plus Baseline forecast data – Global powertrain Growth analytics (2012-2017) Engine family [designer] 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 1 EA111/112 [VW] 3,414,936 3,356,226 3,266,139 3,230,542 3,405,180 3,468,237 53,301 1.6% 4.3% 3.4% 2 S [Renault-Nissan] 1,756,871 2,127,014 2,808,964 3,420,220 3,671,494 3,810,050 2,053,179 116.9% 2.2% 3.7% 3 EA827/113/888 [VW] 2,598,229 2,665,235 2,679,033 2,760,162 2,765,665 2,866,637 268,408 10.3% 3.3% 2.8% 4 ZR [Toyota] 2,148,885 2,291,669 2,500,852 2,550,732 2,560,730 2,610,486 461,601 21.5% 2.7% 2.6% 5 MZR/DURATEC HE [Mazda] 1,805,436 2,336,083 2,442,014 2,659,292 2,736,796 2,674,534 869,098 48.1% 2.3% 2.6% 6 EA086/153/188 [VW] 2,282,942 2,169,089 2,276,353 2,453,432 2,530,271 2,560,066 277,124 12.1% 2.9% 2.5% 7 THETA II [Hyundai] 1,890,154 2,200,145 2,258,047 2,421,793 2,696,162 2,706,911 816,757 43.2% 2.4% 2.7% 8 K [Renault] 1,943,259 1,897,181 1,828,708 1,857,900 2,069,408 2,258,459 315,200 16.2% 2.5% 2.2% 9 GAMMA [Hyundai] 1,772,230 1,842,755 1,965,435 1,932,504 2,055,027 2,196,655 424,425 23.9% 2.2% 2.2% 10 BDOHC [GM Korea] 2,215,959 2,165,925 2,251,687 1,864,963 1,574,707 1,592,304 -623,655 -28.1% 2.8% 1.6% 21,828,901 23,051,322 24,277,232 25,151,540 26,065,440 26,744,339 4,915,438 22.5% 27.5% 26.3% 27.5% 28.2% 28.0% 27.2% 26.7% 26.3% 21.9% 2017 Unit diff. Top 10 total consumption Top 10 (% of total consumption) Engine size % chg 2012 share 2017 share 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 1001-1600 cc 30,149,695 30,770,538 33,006,549 35,560,069 38,688,008 40,751,424 10,601,729 35.2% 38.0% 40.1% 2 1601-2000 cc 17,015,238 18,412,102 19,371,580 20,646,661 21,148,932 21,947,148 4,931,910 29.0% 21.5% 21.6% 3 2001-3000 cc 14,705,773 14,888,044 15,682,133 16,695,787 17,378,671 17,726,767 3,020,994 20.5% 18.6% 17.4% 4 0000-1000 cc 7,574,307 7,885,250 8,647,673 9,764,231 10,611,788 11,175,270 3,600,963 47.5% 9.6% 11.0% 5 3001-4000 cc 6,414,192 6,316,974 6,169,579 6,087,014 5,997,114 5,998,222 -415,970 -6.5% 8.1% 5.9% 6 4001-9999 cc 3,263,626 3,335,510 3,192,739 3,028,066 3,008,237 3,101,208 -162,418 -5.0% 4.1% 3.0% 126,803 223,098 517,253 751,644 922,686 1,029,385 902,582 711.8% 0.2% 1.0% 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 100.0% 100.0% 7 Electric Total consumption Fuel type 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1 Combustion Gasoline 61,779,916 63,855,123 67,292,024 71,558,019 75,191,834 78,018,013 16,238,097 26.3% 78.0% 76.7% 2 Combustion Diesel 15,292,829 15,217,745 15,752,418 16,724,752 17,626,980 18,283,540 2,990,711 19.6% 19.3% 18.0% 3 Hybrid (Mild+Full) 1,999,550 2,416,983 2,809,404 3,025,169 3,331,384 3,532,537 1,532,987 76.7% 2.5% 3.5% 177,339 341,665 733,660 1,225,532 1,605,238 1,895,334 1,717,995 968.8% 0.2% 1.9% 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 100.0% 100.0% 4 PEV+PHEV (Electric) Total consumption Transmission outlook 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 2017 share % chg 2012 share 2017 share 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 1 Manual 39,152,396 39,052,823 40,698,632 42,988,328 45,251,460 46,982,459 7,830,063 20.0% 49.4% 46.2% 2 Automatic 28,487,636 29,106,005 29,857,143 30,888,524 31,662,127 32,155,958 3,668,322 12.9% 35.9% 31.6% 3 Continuously Variable 7,981,726 9,022,516 10,141,040 10,588,283 10,852,375 11,748,211 3,766,485 47.2% 10.1% 11.5% 4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 2,713,382 3,598,498 4,429,636 6,240,362 7,938,564 8,620,185 5,906,803 217.7% 3.4% 8.5% 5 Automated Manual 747,186 751,928 821,454 921,636 948,034 966,354 219,168 29.3% 0.9% 0.9% 6 Electric 159,725 285,797 612,280 870,393 1,066,327 1,216,508 1,056,783 661.6% 0.2% 1.2% 7,583 13,949 27,321 35,946 36,549 39,749 32,166 424.2% 0.0% 0.0% 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 100.0% 100.0% 7 Automatic Hybrid Total consumption Gear outlook % chg 2012 share 2017 share 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 1 5 33,271,625 31,894,051 31,766,442 32,503,283 33,443,665 33,942,182 670,557 2.0% 42.0% 33.4% 2 6 25,798,685 28,421,387 30,242,886 31,361,705 32,862,715 33,375,583 7,576,898 29.4% 32.6% 32.8% 3 Continuously Variable 7,981,726 9,022,516 10,141,040 10,588,283 10,852,375 11,748,211 3,766,485 47.2% 10.1% 11.5% 4 4 8,165,088 6,828,777 6,548,392 6,520,060 6,330,262 6,508,562 -1,656,526 -20.3% 10.3% 6.4% 5 8 or more 1,641,332 2,676,620 3,895,200 5,794,600 7,008,090 8,245,573 6,604,241 402.4% 2.1% 8.1% 6 7 2,129,034 2,601,317 3,189,081 4,700,574 5,999,997 6,500,319 4,371,285 205.3% 2.7% 6.4% 262,144 386,848 804,465 1,064,967 1,258,332 1,408,994 1,146,850 437.5% 0.3% 1.4% 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 100.0% 100.0% 7 3 or less Total consumption 9 Autofacts October 2013 % chg 2012 share 2017 share For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 10. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data – North America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 Alliance group GM Group Ford Group Fiat Group Toyota Group Honda Group Renault-Nissan Hyundai Group VW Group BMW Group Daimler Group Top 10 total assembly Top 10 total capacity Excess capacity Utilisation (%) Growth analytics Unit diff. % chg 528,073 16.3% 307,322 11.0% 358,513 15.2% 346,619 17.7% 160,764 9.5% 378,615 29.1% 345,616 48.0% 279,988 37.1% 9,456 3.1% 91,089 47.7% 2,806,055 18.3% 3,936,516 24.6% 1,130,461 157.1% (2012-2017) CAGR CTG % Rank 3.1% 17.5% 1 2.1% 10.2% 6 2.9% 11.9% 3 3.3% 11.5% 4 1.8% 5.3% 8 5.2% 12.6% 2 8.2% 11.5% 5 6.5% 9.3% 7 0.6% 0.3% 13 8.1% 3.0% 10 3.4% 93.2% 4.5% 94.9% 20.8% 100.0% 2017 651,173 1,086,592 879,899 724,166 781,156 576,577 735,037 939,354 199,989 516,001 7,089,944 38.5% Unit diff. -436,058 1,086,592 357,509 65,419 200,606 99,505 629,029 571,941 -547,025 94,412 2,121,930 70.5% % chg -40.1% 0.0% 68.4% 9.9% 34.6% 20.9% 593.4% 155.7% -73.2% 22.4% 42.7% CAGR -9.7% 0.0% 11.0% 1.9% 6.1% 3.9% 47.3% 20.7% -23.2% 4.1% 7.4% CTG % Rank -14.5% 83 36.1% 1 11.9% 8 2.2% 28 6.7% 14 3.3% 23 20.9% 5 19.0% 6 -18.2% 84 3.1% 25 70.5% 2016 2,861,965 2,488,787 1,810,730 1,623,551 1,633,605 963,225 907,862 433,539 564,859 666,248 13,954,371 78.1% 2017 2,898,000 2,532,967 1,880,902 1,632,965 1,626,302 1,049,423 885,207 426,868 604,034 728,780 14,265,448 77.5% Unit diff. 178,599 263,235 194,605 117,997 359,440 334,775 129,531 -283,126 65,025 269,341 1,629,422 54.1% % chg 6.6% 11.6% 11.5% 7.8% 28.4% 46.8% 17.1% -39.9% 12.1% 58.6% 12.9% CAGR 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 5.1% 8.0% 3.2% -9.7% 2.3% 9.7% 2.5% CTG % Rank 5.9% 8 8.7% 4 6.5% 6 3.9% 12 11.9% 1 11.1% 2 4.3% 10 -9.4% 33 2.2% 19 8.9% 3 54.1% 2016 889,487 539,262 460,093 450,767 401,818 376,833 356,081 339,266 342,816 331,216 4,487,639 25.1% 2017 887,480 551,422 516,001 474,471 383,819 392,167 371,404 361,934 340,284 337,143 4,616,125 25.1% Unit diff. 52,814 46,039 94,412 21,508 -16,324 -3,720 6,067 30,633 5,574 -18,721 218,282 7.3% % chg 6.3% 9.1% 22.4% 4.7% -4.1% -0.9% 1.7% 9.2% 1.7% -5.3% 5.0% CAGR 1.2% 1.8% 4.1% 0.9% -0.8% -0.2% 0.3% 1.8% 0.3% -1.1% 1.0% CTG % Rank 1.8% 28 1.5% 33 3.1% 16 0.7% 65 -0.5% 179 -0.1% 160 0.2% 107 1.0% 55 0.2% 113 -0.6% 182 7.3% 2012 3,233,624 2,804,933 2,362,712 1,957,777 1,690,235 1,299,613 719,547 755,676 301,522 191,138 15,316,777 16,036,254 719,477 95.5% 2013 3,353,386 3,097,854 2,378,365 2,033,206 1,746,421 1,506,247 772,250 692,254 294,978 200,360 16,075,321 17,496,197 1,420,876 91.9% 2014 3,555,004 3,095,074 2,454,763 2,094,721 1,808,869 1,665,693 785,329 623,854 329,398 231,797 16,644,502 18,431,696 1,787,194 90.3% 2015 3,639,624 3,049,890 2,527,266 2,198,890 1,831,129 1,724,857 812,361 842,641 333,285 291,505 17,251,448 19,240,881 1,989,433 89.7% 2016 3,643,931 3,072,439 2,568,452 2,182,037 1,845,262 1,685,712 1,016,748 1,005,165 320,031 269,067 17,608,844 19,867,052 2,258,208 88.6% 2017 3,761,697 3,112,255 2,721,225 2,304,396 1,850,999 1,678,228 1,065,163 1,035,664 310,978 282,227 18,122,832 19,972,770 1,849,938 90.7% 2012 1,087,231 0 522,390 658,747 580,550 477,072 106,008 367,413 747,014 421,589 4,968,014 32.3% 2013 1,202,887 392,098 741,455 712,974 574,080 593,395 400,516 375,492 690,759 445,699 6,129,355 37.9% 2014 1,232,624 1,002,933 730,432 799,792 620,366 558,823 551,842 387,485 623,854 502,190 7,010,341 41.8% 2015 1,313,876 1,083,075 724,019 716,284 658,052 599,773 743,843 445,827 398,051 481,511 7,164,311 41.0% 2016 1,036,343 1,039,999 863,983 707,519 805,394 587,085 728,133 484,469 199,237 460,093 6,912,255 38.7% Brand Ford Chevrolet Toyota Honda Nissan Jeep Volkswagen Dodge GMC Hyundai Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 2,719,401 2,269,732 1,686,297 1,514,968 1,266,862 714,648 755,676 709,994 539,009 459,439 12,636,026 82.1% 2013 2,995,933 2,321,941 1,780,370 1,590,046 1,457,980 726,755 692,254 752,710 579,508 504,933 13,402,430 82.9% 2014 2,960,218 2,460,237 1,816,785 1,629,393 1,623,200 891,250 623,854 592,601 587,274 520,438 13,705,250 81.6% 2015 2,893,452 2,480,018 1,860,702 1,652,297 1,686,448 932,263 842,641 567,238 590,743 516,613 14,022,415 80.2% Brand nameplate Ford F-Series Chevrolet Silverado Ram Pickup Toyota Camry Honda Accord Honda Civic Toyota Corolla Ford Escape Nissan Altima Honda CR-V Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 834,666 505,383 421,589 452,963 400,143 395,887 365,337 331,301 334,710 355,864 4,397,843 28.6% 2013 911,755 541,875 445,699 458,683 452,927 436,668 333,685 377,724 388,225 393,999 4,741,240 29.3% 2014 995,721 559,482 502,190 446,077 411,626 401,553 386,216 360,271 360,048 352,140 4,775,324 28.4% 2015 893,225 554,133 481,511 474,106 392,213 391,886 372,556 355,503 349,121 334,172 4,598,426 26.3% Platform MC (Toyota Motor Corporation) K2XX C1/P1 T1 (Ford Motor Company) NF D (Renault-Nissan) CD4 GLOBAL DELTA PQ35/46 (A5) DS Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) Autofacts October 2013 For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 11. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data – South America 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Growth analytics Unit diff. % chg 267,606 28.3% 294,777 34.3% 148,191 18.8% 94,295 19.3% 162,044 44.0% 145,089 61.9% 170,987 205.4% 68,602 40.5% 157,301 160.1% 125,016 796.6% 1,633,908 40.3% 2,236,888 41.6% 602,980 45.5% (2012-2017) CAGR CTG % Rank 5.1% 14.0% 2 6.1% 15.4% 1 3.5% 7.7% 6 3.6% 4.9% 10 7.6% 8.5% 4 10.1% 7.6% 7 25.0% 8.9% 3 7.0% 3.6% 12 21.1% 8.2% 5 55.1% 6.5% 8 7.0% 85.3% 7.2% 81.5% 7.8% 100.0% Alliance group VW Group Fiat Group GM Group Renault-Nissan Ford Group PSA Group Hyundai Group Toyota Group Honda Group Chery Auto Top 10 total assembly Top 10 total capacity Excess capacity Utilisation (%) 2012 945,427 858,874 787,834 488,987 368,215 234,408 83,229 169,369 98,237 15,694 4,050,274 5,376,277 1,326,003 75.3% 2013 963,893 805,401 913,483 408,550 395,117 303,274 188,094 177,308 175,580 46,588 4,377,288 6,107,207 1,729,919 71.7% 2014 962,273 780,153 918,870 466,714 480,723 289,886 214,813 190,842 173,393 74,303 4,551,970 6,531,345 1,979,375 69.7% 2015 1,054,626 841,067 916,643 527,510 505,577 361,694 251,019 203,303 176,672 82,436 4,920,547 7,110,641 2,190,094 69.2% 2016 1,170,058 1,055,056 923,681 548,698 518,043 367,311 254,380 216,431 235,893 129,554 5,419,105 7,525,440 2,106,335 72.0% 2017 1,213,033 1,153,651 936,025 583,282 530,259 379,497 254,216 237,971 255,538 140,710 5,684,182 7,613,165 1,928,983 74.7% Platform PQ24 (AO4) FIAT/GM 199/4400 GLOBAL GAMMA B2E GM4200 B0 (Renault) PQ25 (AO5) HGSC PF1 X85/B Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 759,551 500,063 97,798 41,209 420,106 297,760 69,306 33,010 57,750 92,450 2,369,003 56.8% 2013 775,680 507,615 365,608 138,127 280,030 159,656 70,515 150,439 119,481 120,507 2,687,658 59.7% 2014 738,414 583,148 420,730 319,918 242,089 167,782 130,790 175,944 117,122 107,536 3,003,473 63.8% 2015 572,389 632,438 462,171 369,831 207,421 186,324 286,503 181,674 157,166 124,226 3,180,143 61.1% 2016 578,646 663,040 458,936 375,402 216,914 186,893 293,735 177,201 158,858 132,810 3,242,435 56.1% 2017 597,302 680,860 512,863 375,406 220,362 196,439 301,448 171,854 118,939 140,887 3,316,360 54.5% Unit diff. -162,249 180,797 415,065 334,197 -199,744 -101,321 232,142 138,844 61,189 48,437 947,357 49.4% % chg -21.4% 36.2% 424.4% 811.0% -47.5% -34.0% 335.0% 420.6% 106.0% 52.4% 40.0% CAGR -4.7% 6.4% 39.3% 55.6% -12.1% -8.0% 34.2% 39.1% 15.5% 8.8% 7.0% CTG % Rank -8.5% 93 9.4% 5 21.7% 1 17.4% 2 -10.4% 95 -5.3% 91 12.1% 4 7.2% 7 3.2% 13 2.5% 17 49.4% Brand Volkswagen Chevrolet Fiat Ford Renault Peugeot Toyota Hyundai Honda Citroen Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 945,427 787,834 843,561 368,215 422,171 148,033 169,369 71,554 98,237 86,375 3,940,776 94.5% 2013 963,893 913,483 784,090 395,117 378,824 180,201 177,308 176,726 175,580 123,073 4,268,295 94.8% 2014 962,273 918,870 744,820 480,723 375,148 172,264 190,842 202,976 173,393 117,622 4,338,931 92.1% 2015 1,019,863 916,643 801,762 505,577 414,107 228,343 203,303 239,274 176,672 133,351 4,638,895 89.2% 2016 1,114,418 923,681 928,025 518,043 433,502 233,048 216,431 242,347 235,893 134,263 4,979,651 86.2% 2017 1,154,030 936,025 1,020,378 530,259 460,280 238,975 237,971 242,080 255,538 140,522 5,216,058 85.7% Unit diff. 208,603 148,191 176,817 162,044 38,109 90,942 68,602 170,526 157,301 54,147 1,275,282 66.5% % chg 22.1% 18.8% 21.0% 44.0% 9.0% 61.4% 40.5% 238.3% 160.1% 62.7% 32.4% CAGR 4.1% 3.5% 3.9% 7.6% 1.7% 10.1% 7.0% 27.6% 21.1% 10.2% 5.8% CTG % Rank 10.9% 1 7.7% 6 9.2% 2 8.5% 4 2.0% 17 4.7% 8 3.6% 12 8.9% 3 8.2% 5 2.8% 15 66.5% Brand nameplate Volkswagen Gol Fiat Uno Fiat Palio Chevrolet Onix Volkswagen Fox Ford Fiesta Hyundai HB20 Fiat Siena Fiat Strada Ford Ka Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 402,001 262,653 193,324 13,333 197,932 109,950 33,010 100,821 130,087 91,025 1,534,136 36.8% 2013 405,152 192,933 203,717 205,547 206,494 155,676 150,439 106,450 110,785 40,416 1,777,609 39.5% 2014 430,619 179,145 203,923 231,363 200,567 183,147 142,981 97,875 103,238 104,330 1,877,188 39.9% 2015 423,545 223,120 203,485 255,071 192,382 139,474 144,428 108,965 93,814 131,787 1,916,071 36.8% 2016 431,840 281,365 196,509 253,599 194,710 136,056 138,457 111,200 94,572 122,371 1,960,679 33.9% 2017 443,059 289,874 210,272 245,604 204,752 143,346 134,946 119,880 103,383 119,428 2,014,544 33.1% Unit diff. % chg 41,058 10.2% 27,221 10.4% 16,948 8.8% 232,271 1742.1% 6,820 3.4% 33,396 30.4% 101,936 308.8% 19,059 18.9% -26,704 -20.5% 28,403 31.2% 480,408 31.3% 25.1% CAGR 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 79.1% 0.7% 5.4% 32.5% 3.5% -4.5% 5.6% 5.6% CTG % Rank 2.1% 15 1.4% 36 0.9% 54 12.1% 1 0.4% 78 1.7% 26 5.3% 2 1.0% 53 -1.4% 164 1.5% 33 25.1% Autofacts October 2013 For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 12. Analyst Note Plus Baseline forecast data – North and South America North America: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017 North America: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters) 70% 3,200 50% 80% 3,300 60% 100% 3,100 60% 40% 40% 30% 20% 20% 3,000 2,900 10% 0% 0% 2012 2013 Gasoline 2014 Diesel 2015 Hybrid 2016 PEV+PHEV 2,800 2,700 2012 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DI Growth analytics (2012-2017) Transmission outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 12,182,823 12,402,325 12,432,275 12,657,407 12,640,350 12,438,793 255,970 2.1% 79.1% 67.6% 2 Continuously Variable 1,268,622 1,827,971 2,279,463 2,413,187 2,492,063 3,029,426 1,760,804 138.8% 8.2% 16.5% 3 Manual 1,264,125 1,149,347 1,156,915 1,072,466 1,018,436 998,991 -265,134 -21.0% 8.2% 5.4% 639,985 675,519 775,139 1,172,113 1,503,160 1,648,421 1,008,436 157.6% 4.2% 9.0% 40,428 98,723 134,362 164,525 189,104 243,714 203,286 502.8% 0.3% 1.3% 6 Automated Manual 0 5,239 11,753 12,508 28,004 46,914 46,914 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Total consumption 15,395,983 16,159,124 16,789,907 17,492,206 17,871,117 18,406,259 3,010,276 19.6% 100.0% 100.0% 1 Automatic 4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 5 Electric South America: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017 % chg 2012 share 2017 share South America: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters) 100% 30% 80% 1,550 25% 20% 60% 1,500 15% 40% 10% 20% 1,450 5% 0% 0% 2012 2013 Gasoline 2014 Diesel 2015 Hybrid 2016 PEV+PHEV 1,400 2012 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DI Growth analytics (2012-2017) Transmission outlook 1 Manual 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 3,843,719 4,087,869 4,177,704 4,479,726 4,865,045 5,011,904 1,168,185 30.4% 92.1% 82.3% 301,427 339,758 372,368 415,732 438,781 446,635 145,208 48.2% 7.2% 7.3% 7,017 20,274 49,083 116,637 186,190 308,282 301,265 4293.4% 0.2% 5.1% 15,884 23,573 46,787 112,692 153,461 163,725 147,841 930.8% 0.4% 2.7% 3,511 33,008 64,662 77,493 135,433 157,495 153,984 4385.8% 0.1% 2.6% 4,171,558 4,504,482 4,710,604 5,202,280 5,778,910 6,088,041 1,916,483 45.9% 100.0% 100.0% 2 Automatic 3 Automated Manual Double Clutch 4 Automated Manual 5 Continuously Variable Total consumption 12 Autofacts October 2013 % chg 2012 share 2017 share For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 13. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data – European Union 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 13 Alliance group VW Group PSA Group Renault-Nissan Daimler Group BMW Group Ford Group Fiat Group GM Group Hyundai Group Toyota Group Top 10 total assembly Top 10 total capacity Excess capacity Utilisation (%) 2012 4,425,041 1,976,462 1,908,864 1,347,801 1,358,509 1,064,178 872,044 941,952 533,105 364,796 14,792,752 19,950,013 5,157,261 74.1% 2013 4,414,119 1,971,636 1,810,585 1,452,506 1,407,606 1,055,358 751,624 869,306 539,708 436,446 14,708,894 19,515,468 4,806,574 75.4% 2014 4,612,643 2,089,303 1,830,357 1,521,981 1,366,649 1,069,224 795,147 869,257 549,798 474,414 15,178,773 20,023,210 4,844,437 75.8% 2015 4,934,571 2,118,632 1,998,831 1,543,514 1,464,323 1,112,521 1,162,571 934,070 516,781 474,312 16,260,126 20,270,634 4,010,508 80.2% 2016 4,968,437 2,196,052 2,172,446 1,527,397 1,583,237 1,100,364 1,369,197 1,173,376 508,048 448,098 17,046,652 20,571,064 3,524,412 82.9% 2017 4,990,353 2,277,239 2,164,847 1,620,438 1,665,638 1,066,591 1,397,491 1,271,016 537,342 443,467 17,434,422 20,448,139 3,013,717 85.3% Platform MQB PQ35/46 (A5) PF1 MLB C1/P1 L7 PF2 X85/B HD MFA Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 117,033 2,116,969 695,211 665,667 559,289 446,566 807,002 544,391 457,033 210,068 6,619,229 41.6% 2013 996,184 1,169,800 831,259 691,200 576,974 572,557 669,678 554,143 476,500 388,466 6,926,761 43.9% 2014 1,615,095 866,045 841,040 750,875 601,467 588,794 498,974 491,441 488,955 487,603 7,230,289 44.4% 2015 2,761,174 342,605 829,629 812,969 570,501 539,577 492,126 461,530 458,099 515,924 7,784,134 44.5% 2016 3,090,747 258,538 792,622 744,699 538,328 545,857 381,069 443,535 436,384 465,708 7,697,487 42.0% 2017 3,234,148 156,338 660,000 877,261 515,080 518,327 293,962 464,781 452,264 454,925 7,627,086 40.7% Brand Volkswagen Mercedes-Benz Audi Peugeot BMW Ford Renault Opel-Vauxhall Citroen Fiat Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 2,207,927 1,248,900 1,132,784 1,099,757 1,043,732 1,064,178 996,573 941,952 876,705 649,723 11,262,231 70.8% 2013 2,141,211 1,361,993 1,177,393 1,117,942 1,072,924 1,055,358 880,307 869,306 853,694 550,208 11,080,336 70.3% 2014 2,219,125 1,428,703 1,192,421 1,163,889 1,051,263 1,069,224 899,193 869,257 925,414 547,064 11,365,553 69.9% 2015 2,371,488 1,394,937 1,263,588 1,156,580 1,111,305 1,112,521 1,008,205 915,102 962,052 699,322 11,995,100 68.6% 2016 2,465,026 1,373,749 1,165,334 1,208,529 1,172,508 1,100,364 1,150,120 1,092,827 987,523 819,576 12,535,556 68.3% Brand nameplate Volkswagen Golf Ford Fiesta Opel-Vauxhall Corsa BMW 3 Series Peugeot 208 Volkswagen Polo Opel-Vauxhall Astra Nissan Qashqai Volkswagen Passat Ford Focus Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 475,804 350,332 294,441 339,920 241,672 287,289 299,757 310,837 236,687 289,079 3,125,818 19.6% 2013 495,763 338,969 278,923 360,568 294,887 262,756 223,797 288,364 227,254 259,671 3,030,952 19.2% 2014 598,546 308,310 269,955 289,174 293,541 257,263 205,529 239,825 212,678 240,757 2,915,578 17.9% 2015 589,599 336,401 247,174 249,354 288,910 252,525 235,963 247,669 274,282 230,918 2,952,795 16.9% 2016 582,680 389,522 304,500 229,653 290,525 284,291 320,568 241,147 294,393 216,465 3,153,744 17.2% Autofacts October 2013 Growth analytics (2012-2017) Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank 565,312 12.8% 2.4% 19.9% 1 300,777 15.2% 2.9% 10.6% 5 255,983 13.4% 2.5% 9.0% 7 272,637 20.2% 3.8% 9.6% 6 307,129 22.6% 4.2% 10.8% 4 2,413 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 17 525,447 60.3% 9.9% 18.5% 2 329,064 34.9% 6.2% 11.6% 3 4,237 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 15 78,671 21.6% 4.0% 2.8% 9 2,641,670 17.9% 3.3% 93.0% 498,126 2.5% 0.5% 77.7% -2,143,544 -41.6% -10.2% 100.0% Unit diff. % chg 3,117,115 2663.4% -1,960,631 -92.6% -35,211 -5.1% 211,594 31.8% -44,209 -7.9% 71,761 16.1% -513,040 -63.6% -79,610 -14.6% -4,769 -1.0% 244,857 116.6% 1,007,857 15.2% 35.5% CAGR 94.2% -40.6% -1.0% 5.7% -1.6% 3.0% -18.3% -3.1% -0.2% 16.7% 2.9% CTG % Rank 109.7% 1 -69.0% 144 -1.2% 112 7.4% 13 -1.6% 114 2.5% 27 -18.1% 142 -2.8% 122 -0.2% 90 8.6% 12 35.5% 2017 2,459,732 1,476,192 1,177,880 1,201,616 1,240,010 1,066,591 1,118,515 1,193,104 1,075,623 817,235 12,826,498 68.4% Unit diff. 251,805 227,292 45,096 101,859 196,278 2,413 121,942 251,152 198,918 167,512 1,564,267 55.1% % chg 11.4% 18.2% 4.0% 9.3% 18.8% 0.2% 12.2% 26.7% 22.7% 25.8% 13.9% CAGR 2.2% 3.4% 0.8% 1.8% 3.5% 0.0% 2.3% 4.8% 4.2% 4.7% 2.6% CTG % Rank 8.9% 1 8.0% 3 1.6% 21 3.6% 13 6.9% 6 0.1% 33 4.3% 8 8.8% 2 7.0% 4 5.9% 7 55.1% 2017 573,301 387,980 330,745 254,170 277,085 291,763 336,555 236,910 291,869 209,523 3,189,901 17.0% Unit diff. 97,497 37,648 36,304 -85,750 35,413 4,474 36,798 -73,927 55,182 -79,556 64,083 2.3% % chg 20.5% 10.7% 12.3% -25.2% 14.7% 1.6% 12.3% -23.8% 23.3% -27.5% 2.1% CAGR 3.8% 2.1% 2.4% -5.6% 2.8% 0.3% 2.3% -5.3% 4.3% -6.2% 0.4% CTG % Rank 3.4% 7 1.3% 52 1.3% 56 -3.0% 361 1.2% 59 0.2% 148 1.3% 54 -2.6% 355 1.9% 30 -2.8% 358 2.3% For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 14. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data – Eastern Europe 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 14 Alliance group Renault-Nissan GM Group Hyundai Group Ford Group Fiat Group VW Group Toyota Group PSA Group GAZ Group Daewoo Group Top 10 total assembly Top 10 total capacity Excess capacity Utilisation (%) 2012 1,104,458 541,182 437,840 385,063 216,270 211,468 112,547 100,824 58,414 39,264 3,207,330 4,938,384 1,731,054 64.9% 2013 1,134,338 509,931 489,657 389,458 278,000 221,903 143,505 116,479 54,406 24,766 3,362,443 5,159,947 1,797,504 65.2% 2014 1,162,982 501,773 546,713 422,438 251,005 268,061 189,867 131,388 58,500 46,395 3,579,122 5,502,609 1,923,487 65.0% 2015 1,258,147 510,946 567,797 531,977 257,606 277,178 186,980 151,817 61,174 51,792 3,855,414 5,693,789 1,838,375 67.7% 2016 1,428,836 537,799 557,479 545,343 327,684 288,456 240,585 99,223 61,227 53,133 4,139,765 6,313,002 2,173,237 65.6% 2017 1,553,733 566,087 558,843 567,724 396,808 307,140 248,140 104,371 63,216 56,385 4,422,447 6,499,489 2,077,042 68.0% Platform B0 (Renault) HGSC X85/B 2190 V184/5 GLOBAL GAMMA FIAT/GM 199/4400 X84/C B-EVO 2121 Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 177,124 224,598 158,312 145,307 168,232 105,714 243,265 117,952 29,666 128,402 1,498,572 43.1% 2013 338,643 225,032 245,247 229,072 205,361 170,466 215,699 100,464 112,298 111,710 1,953,992 53.0% 2014 335,455 296,659 268,202 280,186 250,261 212,403 188,825 99,544 122,611 97,153 2,151,299 54.2% 2015 379,858 294,237 275,015 290,603 267,736 228,445 191,660 114,592 135,739 96,582 2,274,467 52.9% 2016 466,543 281,031 287,997 276,384 279,412 230,015 127,164 190,684 180,122 97,295 2,416,647 52.5% 2017 523,793 281,718 293,312 257,772 292,949 240,603 129,276 266,024 223,803 117,528 2,626,778 53.6% Brand Lada Renault Ford Chevrolet Hyundai Fiat Kia Toyota Volkswagen Skoda Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 600,713 458,589 385,063 337,417 236,563 215,717 201,277 112,547 113,297 98,171 2,759,354 79.4% 2013 495,850 575,842 389,458 323,655 263,699 277,444 225,958 143,505 128,283 86,053 2,909,747 79.0% 2014 457,973 569,276 422,438 351,844 312,342 250,439 234,371 189,867 136,452 120,438 3,045,440 76.7% 2015 521,121 559,652 531,977 358,294 336,304 239,101 231,493 186,980 140,088 119,507 3,224,517 75.0% 2016 642,358 605,991 545,343 382,543 340,218 295,696 217,261 226,466 143,421 127,341 3,526,638 76.7% 2017 735,319 623,976 567,724 406,683 345,234 331,928 213,609 233,236 150,980 137,205 3,745,894 76.4% Brand nameplate Renault Clio Ford Transit Lada Granta Hyundai Solaris Lada Kalina Fiat 500L Kia Rio Hyundai Getz/i20 Chevrolet Spark Renault Symbol / Thalia Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 158,312 150,974 149,548 124,325 119,522 29,666 100,273 82,713 88,466 42,053 1,045,852 30.1% 2013 230,465 163,178 185,047 125,856 72,058 112,298 97,616 86,911 69,391 74,918 1,217,738 33.1% 2014 232,812 172,976 173,536 115,771 99,169 122,611 92,124 82,622 77,308 82,791 1,251,720 31.5% 2015 221,811 180,924 177,412 110,423 109,271 111,723 89,732 87,417 74,215 82,363 1,245,291 29.0% 2016 227,063 189,911 170,156 101,476 102,716 95,255 82,748 89,366 80,546 91,251 1,230,488 26.7% 2017 226,556 201,355 155,600 98,890 98,519 89,101 80,382 89,445 95,422 100,510 1,235,780 25.2% Autofacts October 2013 Growth analytics Unit diff. % chg 449,275 40.7% 24,905 4.6% 121,003 27.6% 182,661 47.4% 180,538 83.5% 95,672 45.2% 135,593 120.5% 3,547 3.5% 4,802 8.2% 17,121 43.6% 1,215,117 37.9% 1,561,105 31.6% 345,988 20.0% (2012-2017) CAGR CTG % Rank 7.1% 31.5% 1 0.9% 1.7% 10 5.0% 8.5% 5 8.1% 12.8% 2 12.9% 12.7% 3 7.8% 6.7% 6 17.1% 9.5% 4 0.7% 0.2% 19 1.6% 0.3% 18 7.5% 1.2% 13 6.6% 85.3% 5.7% 82.7% 3.7% 100.0% Unit diff. 346,669 57,120 135,000 112,465 124,717 134,889 -113,989 148,072 194,137 -10,874 1,128,206 79.2% CAGR 24.2% 4.6% 13.1% 12.1% 11.7% 17.9% -11.9% 17.7% 49.8% -1.8% 11.9% CTG % Rank 24.3% 1 4.0% 11 9.5% 6 7.9% 9 8.8% 8 9.5% 7 -8.0% 117 10.4% 5 13.6% 3 -0.8% 101 79.2% Unit diff. % chg 134,606 22.4% 165,387 36.1% 182,661 47.4% 69,266 20.5% 108,671 45.9% 116,211 53.9% 12,332 6.1% 120,689 107.2% 37,683 33.3% 39,034 39.8% 986,540 35.8% 69.3% CAGR 4.1% 6.4% 8.1% 3.8% 7.9% 9.0% 1.2% 15.7% 5.9% 6.9% 6.3% CTG % Rank 9.5% 3 11.6% 2 12.8% 1 4.9% 8 7.6% 6 8.2% 5 0.9% 25 8.5% 4 2.6% 13 2.7% 12 69.3% Unit diff. 68,244 50,381 6,052 -25,435 -21,003 59,435 -19,891 6,732 6,956 58,457 189,928 13.3% CAGR 7.4% 5.9% 0.8% -4.5% -3.8% 24.6% -4.3% 1.6% 1.5% 19.0% 3.4% CTG % Rank 4.8% 7 3.5% 15 0.4% 73 -1.8% 221 -1.5% 219 4.2% 9 -1.4% 218 0.5% 68 0.5% 67 4.1% 10 13.3% % chg 195.7% 25.4% 85.3% 77.4% 74.1% 127.6% -46.9% 125.5% 654.4% -8.5% 75.3% % chg 43.1% 33.4% 4.0% -20.5% -17.6% 200.3% -19.8% 8.1% 7.9% 139.0% 18.2% For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 15. Analyst Note Plus Baseline forecast data – Europe European Union: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017 European Union: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters) 100% 100% 2,000 80% 80% 1,900 60% 60% 1,800 40% 40% 1,700 20% 20% 1,600 0% 1,500 2012 0% 2012 2013 Gasoline 2014 Diesel 2015 Hybrid 2016 2017 PEV+PHEV 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DI Growth analytics (2012-2017) Transmission outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 11,243,812 10,861,151 10,949,986 11,558,954 11,961,774 12,061,484 817,672 7.3% 70.6% 64.3% 2 Automatic 2,622,359 2,645,764 2,648,834 2,736,647 2,872,596 3,104,661 482,302 18.4% 16.5% 16.6% 3 Automated Manual Double Clutch 1,210,439 1,405,882 1,584,613 2,065,087 2,375,604 2,472,600 1,262,161 104.3% 7.6% 13.2% 544,792 495,096 521,788 518,242 453,713 410,632 -134,160 -24.6% 3.4% 2.2% 17,139 54,745 291,665 366,826 434,095 478,084 460,945 2689.5% 0.1% 2.5% 276,612 307,970 270,506 248,976 244,594 228,831 -47,781 -17.3% 1.7% 1.2% 15,915,153 15,770,608 16,267,392 17,494,732 18,342,376 18,756,292 2,841,139 17.9% 100.0% 100.0% 1 Manual 4 Automated Manual 5 Electric 6 Continuously Variable Total consumption Eastern Europe: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017 % chg 2012 share 2017 share Eastern Europe: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters) 100% 50% 1,700 80% 45% 1,650 60% 40% 40% 35% 20% 30% 1,600 0% 25% 2012 2013 Gasoline 2014 Diesel 2015 Hybrid 2016 PEV+PHEV 2017 1,550 1,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DI Growth analytics (2012-2017) Transmission outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 2,986,502 3,019,640 3,194,089 3,451,649 3,674,736 3,941,873 955,371 32.0% 85.9% 80.4% 351,688 488,544 549,825 531,671 538,254 555,191 203,503 57.9% 10.1% 11.3% 3 Automated Manual Double Clutch 51,906 76,126 114,989 200,852 252,342 263,863 211,957 408.3% 1.5% 5.4% 4 Automated Manual 37,604 37,403 45,103 47,923 56,729 57,304 19,700 52.4% 1.1% 1.2% 5 Continuously Variable 29,626 35,657 43,369 45,016 52,714 52,601 22,975 77.6% 0.9% 1.1% 6 Electric 19,778 26,566 21,204 21,523 25,933 30,430 10,652 53.9% 0.6% 0.6% 3,477,104 3,683,936 3,968,579 4,298,634 4,600,708 4,901,262 1,424,158 41.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1 Manual 2 Automatic Total consumption 15 Autofacts October 2013 % chg 2012 share 2017 share For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 16. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data – Developed Asia Pacific Growth analytics Unit diff. % chg -824,725 -16.8% 59,324 1.8% -106,334 -7.5% -26,635 -2.6% 130,434 14.6% 12,271 1.4% -155,821 -17.8% 12,639 2.8% 21,963 18.4% -12,712 -27.8% -889,596 -6.4% -1,574,186 -9.7% -684,590 -29.1% (2012-2017) CAGR CTG % Rank -3.6% -90.4% 13 0.4% 6.5% 2 -1.6% -11.7% 11 -0.5% -2.9% 9 2.8% 14.3% 1 0.3% 1.3% 5 -3.9% -17.1% 12 0.6% 1.4% 4 3.4% 2.4% 3 -6.3% -1.4% 8 -1.3% -97.5% -2.0% -93.7% -6.6% 100.0% 2017 1,273,262 494,863 Unit diff. 109,028 -1,001,744 % chg 9.4% -66.9% CAGR CTG % Rank 1.8% 11.9% 10 -19.9% -109.8% 108 793,534 928,100 689,343 498,428 446,384 490,570 419,620 493,627 6,708,230 51.4% 774,374 948,403 702,048 490,429 106,987 471,939 422,384 473,533 6,158,222 47.2% -60,437 703,848 140,775 -62,383 -722,812 -145,016 -162,648 81,929 -1,119,460 122.7% -7.2% 287.8% 25.1% -11.3% -87.1% -23.5% -27.8% 20.9% -15.4% -1.5% 31.1% 4.6% -2.4% -33.6% -5.2% -6.3% 3.9% -3.3% 2015 2,447,201 1,725,753 1,582,252 1,052,418 1,018,145 926,121 726,638 540,856 609,153 586,303 11,214,840 85.0% 2016 2,475,131 1,768,950 1,572,219 983,088 983,485 919,642 727,954 549,931 575,238 506,355 11,061,993 84.7% 2017 2,438,408 1,786,606 1,592,894 994,903 1,021,149 912,055 717,661 530,819 606,830 474,996 11,076,321 84.8% Unit diff. -742,029 -48,069 107,393 -2,967 130,434 -246,493 -155,821 -166,131 59,559 -88,429 -1,152,553 126.3% % chg -23.3% -2.6% 7.2% -0.3% 14.6% -21.3% -17.8% -23.8% 10.9% -15.7% -9.4% CAGR CTG % Rank -5.2% -81.3% 28 -0.5% -5.3% 22 1.4% 11.8% 3 -0.1% -0.3% 16 2.8% 14.3% 2 -4.7% -27.0% 27 -3.9% -17.1% 25 -5.3% -18.2% 26 2.1% 6.5% 5 -3.4% -9.7% 23 -2.0% -126.3% 2015 524,346 306,004 250,801 227,170 207,007 218,562 224,745 204,742 201,121 201,584 2,566,082 19.4% 2016 518,237 277,463 246,180 216,704 239,856 223,930 196,305 192,550 199,679 212,232 2,523,136 19.3% 2017 522,513 272,397 280,073 244,223 232,702 220,913 197,178 219,908 193,394 225,643 2,608,944 20.0% Unit diff. 41,043 -32,710 -54,177 39,297 -15,365 -28,040 -16,433 -1,937 -35,964 5,702 -98,584 10.8% % chg 8.5% -10.7% -16.2% 19.2% -6.2% -11.3% -7.7% -0.9% -15.7% 2.6% -3.6% CAGR 1.6% -2.2% -3.5% 3.6% -1.3% -2.4% -1.6% -0.2% -3.4% 0.5% -0.7% 2012 4,916,519 3,320,176 1,411,760 1,029,855 890,715 880,962 873,482 451,889 119,142 45,751 13,940,251 16,295,678 2,355,427 85.5% 2013 4,631,813 3,337,863 1,161,124 955,046 989,525 903,113 780,157 386,998 134,831 32,216 13,312,686 15,099,251 1,786,565 88.2% 2014 4,318,317 3,335,442 1,280,458 1,060,095 1,022,019 910,477 746,628 442,963 130,012 36,637 13,283,048 14,823,998 1,540,950 89.6% 2015 4,146,151 3,308,005 1,365,067 1,061,185 1,018,145 871,749 726,638 501,111 134,938 34,591 13,167,580 14,872,180 1,704,600 88.5% 2016 4,144,758 3,341,169 1,335,713 991,524 983,485 851,699 727,954 482,368 138,530 32,808 13,030,008 14,800,757 1,770,749 88.0% 2017 4,091,794 3,379,500 1,305,426 1,003,220 1,021,149 893,233 717,661 464,528 141,105 33,039 13,050,655 14,721,492 1,670,837 88.7% Platform 1 HD 2 MC (Toyota Motor Corporation) 3 NF 4 SKYACTIV 5 HGSC 6 SI 7 NBC 8 L4 (Daihatsu Motor Company) 9 YP/YN 10 GLOBAL GAMMA Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 1,164,234 1,496,607 2013 1,207,567 1,471,313 2014 1,262,622 1,311,279 2015 1,226,276 881,306 2016 1,231,001 717,623 834,811 244,555 561,273 552,812 829,799 616,955 585,032 391,604 7,277,682 52.1% 834,297 577,159 577,308 591,494 699,054 546,279 551,389 463,653 7,519,513 56.4% 748,854 856,488 694,793 591,104 603,153 528,352 493,009 445,253 7,534,907 56.6% 797,042 881,817 674,006 585,594 585,738 480,469 462,577 452,742 7,027,567 53.2% Brand Toyota Hyundai Kia Honda Mazda Nissan Suzuki Daihatsu Chevrolet Subaru Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 3,180,437 1,834,675 1,485,501 997,870 890,715 1,158,548 873,482 696,950 547,271 563,425 12,228,874 87.5% 2013 2,877,642 1,802,346 1,535,517 929,901 989,525 891,462 780,157 620,754 542,595 588,897 11,558,796 86.7% 2014 2,572,483 1,751,471 1,583,971 1,051,351 1,022,019 937,484 746,628 588,342 592,172 587,268 11,433,189 85.9% Brand nameplate Toyota Prius Mazda Axela Toyota Prius C/Aqua Mazda CX-5 Hyundai Accent Hyundai Elantra/i30 Kia Forte Kia Rio Toyota Land Cruiser Hyundai Tucson/iX35 Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 481,470 305,107 334,250 204,926 248,067 248,953 213,611 221,845 229,358 219,941 2,707,528 19.4% 2013 550,956 274,550 304,416 281,242 237,039 240,661 209,219 226,084 229,203 200,330 2,753,700 20.7% 2014 516,184 324,041 258,395 235,925 237,487 228,937 245,165 197,012 205,623 187,479 2,636,248 19.8% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 16 Alliance group Toyota Group Hyundai Group Renault-Nissan Honda Group Mazda GM Group Suzuki Group Mitsubishi Group Mahindra PSA Group Top 10 total assembly Top 10 total capacity Excess capacity Utilisation (%) Autofacts October 2013 -6.6% 77.1% 15.4% -6.8% -79.2% -15.9% -17.8% 9.0% -122.7% 91 2 7 92 107 101 103 13 CTG % Rank 4.5% 16 -3.6% 318 -5.9% 334 4.3% 18 -1.7% 280 -3.1% 306 -1.8% 284 -0.2% 196 -3.9% 321 0.6% 97 -10.8% For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 17. Analyst Note Plus Baseline assembly forecast data – Developing Asia Pacific 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 17 Alliance group GM Group VW Group Toyota Group Hyundai Group Renault-Nissan Honda Group Suzuki Group Ford Group Chang'an Group Geely Group Top 10 total assembly Top 10 total capacity Excess capacity Utilisation (%) Growth analytics Unit diff. % chg 1,727,930 58.6% 1,569,227 57.4% 1,005,706 34.5% 862,838 41.6% 1,239,584 83.6% 1,156,890 109.2% 364,083 25.4% 1,285,198 171.1% 238,813 23.1% 444,894 87.7% 9,895,163 58.4% 10,506,578 50.5% 611,415 15.9% (2012-2017) CAGR CTG % Rank 9.7% 12.4% 1 9.5% 11.2% 2 6.1% 7.2% 6 7.2% 6.2% 7 12.9% 8.9% 4 15.9% 8.3% 5 4.6% 2.6% 12 22.1% 9.2% 3 4.2% 1.7% 14 13.4% 3.2% 10 9.6% 70.9% 8.5% 67.6% 3.0% 100.0% 2012 2,951,057 2,734,317 2,916,433 2,075,413 1,482,861 1,059,895 1,434,328 751,172 1,035,144 507,317 16,947,937 20,792,273 3,844,336 81.5% 2013 3,212,770 3,161,801 3,109,152 2,184,869 1,701,556 1,372,114 1,386,887 1,047,681 1,064,493 569,450 18,810,773 23,220,907 4,410,134 81.0% 2014 3,420,757 3,331,516 3,418,264 2,386,820 2,063,950 1,771,440 1,430,699 1,144,019 1,163,735 715,368 20,846,568 25,568,628 4,722,060 81.5% 2015 3,852,279 3,451,666 3,652,522 2,493,351 2,377,642 2,048,386 1,526,155 1,495,170 1,237,841 849,288 22,984,300 29,308,039 6,323,739 78.4% 2016 4,461,719 3,992,241 3,777,727 2,714,805 2,522,462 2,139,545 1,562,019 1,866,287 1,284,361 888,595 25,209,761 31,128,890 5,919,129 81.0% 2017 4,678,987 4,303,544 3,922,139 2,938,251 2,722,445 2,216,785 1,798,411 2,036,370 1,273,957 952,211 26,843,100 31,298,851 4,455,751 85.8% Platform MINICAB CARRY PQ34 (A4) PQ35/46 (A5) IMV HD C1/P1 MQB GLOBAL DELTA NBC Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 1,400,893 1,384,065 785,158 1,143,374 917,202 640,886 476,402 0 499,169 525,972 7,773,121 31.7% 2013 1,438,834 1,224,514 942,763 1,285,696 910,107 861,368 745,755 37,425 530,882 562,621 8,539,965 31.8% 2014 1,484,876 1,321,290 961,497 1,113,161 926,404 859,264 682,022 362,291 589,991 642,501 8,943,297 29.8% 2015 1,502,337 1,311,465 1,002,681 841,500 933,705 915,882 865,048 839,795 681,253 668,193 9,561,859 28.8% 2016 1,494,700 1,271,375 1,008,649 589,719 936,507 1,023,119 796,712 1,387,138 793,086 696,487 9,997,492 27.6% 2017 1,568,384 1,224,849 1,031,696 605,710 953,861 1,108,332 899,083 1,517,682 908,285 757,457 10,575,339 27.5% Unit diff. 167,491 -159,216 246,538 -537,664 36,659 467,446 422,681 1,517,682 409,116 231,485 2,802,218 20.1% % chg 12.0% -11.5% 31.4% -47.0% 4.0% 72.9% 88.7% 0.0% 82.0% 44.0% 36.1% CAGR 2.3% -2.4% 5.6% -11.9% 0.8% 11.6% 13.5% 0.0% 12.7% 7.6% 6.4% CTG % Rank 1.2% 32 -1.1% 233 1.8% 19 -3.9% 236 0.3% 82 3.3% 6 3.0% 8 10.9% 1 2.9% 9 1.7% 24 20.1% Brand Toyota Volkswagen Hyundai Nissan Honda Wuling Ford Chevrolet Chang'an Buick Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 2,562,472 2,130,483 1,551,317 1,403,325 1,021,962 1,383,305 751,172 883,920 825,494 677,286 13,190,736 53.8% 2013 2,722,341 2,442,362 1,637,016 1,518,141 1,325,576 1,403,522 1,047,681 982,246 898,176 809,806 14,786,867 55.0% 2014 2,972,492 2,488,422 1,845,546 1,678,554 1,721,598 1,450,579 1,144,019 1,120,684 997,637 828,520 16,248,051 54.2% 2015 3,127,795 2,540,502 1,860,603 1,764,657 1,927,479 1,462,938 1,462,529 1,367,166 1,047,494 918,846 17,480,009 52.7% 2016 3,231,536 2,760,772 1,947,097 1,769,781 1,947,428 1,449,767 1,783,740 1,659,899 1,084,005 1,193,476 18,827,501 51.9% 2017 3,368,571 2,891,738 2,127,526 1,859,168 2,017,179 1,520,944 1,943,870 1,761,558 1,052,887 1,231,582 19,775,023 51.4% Unit diff. 806,099 761,255 576,209 455,843 995,217 137,639 1,192,698 877,638 227,393 554,296 6,584,287 47.2% % chg 31.5% 35.7% 37.1% 32.5% 97.4% 10.0% 158.8% 99.3% 27.5% 81.8% 49.9% CAGR 5.6% 6.3% 6.5% 5.8% 14.6% 1.9% 20.9% 14.8% 5.0% 12.7% 8.4% CTG % Rank 5.8% 4 5.5% 5 4.1% 6 3.3% 8 7.1% 2 1.0% 28 8.5% 1 6.3% 3 1.6% 19 4.0% 7 47.2% Brand nameplate Toyota Corolla Toyota Hilux Vigo Wuling Sunshine Chang'an SC63/10 Series Dongfeng Xiaokang Hyundai Elantra/i30 Volkswagen Lavida Wuling Hong Guang Wuling Rong Guang Ford Focus Top 10 total assembly Top 10 (% of regional total) 2012 543,516 539,392 523,274 500,466 447,028 374,583 250,304 339,509 378,268 325,736 4,222,076 17.2% 2013 548,634 531,887 489,196 445,529 455,277 409,469 415,942 394,966 346,259 441,089 4,478,248 16.7% 2014 563,152 535,442 510,193 514,137 446,067 415,536 425,264 402,719 371,260 338,381 4,522,151 15.1% 2015 561,366 537,248 531,231 498,217 413,505 413,183 446,253 390,845 377,676 273,467 4,442,991 13.4% 2016 565,146 535,914 540,363 512,854 352,411 398,641 435,658 390,188 363,288 292,624 4,387,087 12.1% 2017 586,778 548,191 569,756 450,694 357,363 446,840 434,601 412,621 378,040 367,529 4,552,413 11.8% Unit diff. 43,262 8,799 46,482 -49,772 -89,665 72,257 184,297 73,112 -228 41,793 330,337 2.4% % chg 8.0% 1.6% 8.9% -9.9% -20.1% 19.3% 73.6% 21.5% -0.1% 12.8% 7.8% CAGR 1.5% 0.3% 1.7% -2.1% -4.4% 3.6% 11.7% 4.0% 0.0% 2.4% 1.5% CTG % Rank 0.3% 109 0.1% 372 0.3% 98 -0.4% 681 -0.6% 686 0.5% 50 1.3% 4 0.5% 48 0.0% 586 0.3% 115 2.4% Autofacts October 2013 For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com
  • 18. Analyst Note Plus Baseline forecast data – Asia Pacific Developed AP: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017 Developed AP: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters) 100% 50% 1,900 80% 40% 1,800 60% 30% 40% 20% 20% 10% 1,600 0% 1,500 2012 1,700 0% 2012 2013 Gasoline Diesel 2014 2015 Hybrid 2016 2017 PEV+PHEV 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DI Growth analytics (2012-2017) Transmission outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 1 Continuously Variable 5,096,728 5,084,377 5,090,955 4,965,870 4,925,709 4,943,473 -153,255 -3.0% 36.5% 37.9% 2 Automatic 5,205,446 4,796,831 4,711,264 4,597,845 4,541,933 4,547,537 -657,909 -12.6% 37.3% 34.8% 3 Manual 3,518,321 3,284,051 3,094,142 3,042,457 2,870,971 2,802,207 -716,114 -20.4% 25.2% 21.5% 4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 93,559 95,627 272,089 351,355 393,994 400,698 307,139 328.3% 0.7% 3.1% 5 Electric 48,782 57,796 106,184 204,988 279,077 322,271 273,489 560.6% 0.3% 2.5% 6 Automatic Hybrid 7,583 13,949 27,321 35,946 36,549 39,749 32,166 424.2% 0.1% 0.3% 7 Automated Manual 2,721 2,258 1,865 1,320 4,950 4,753 2,032 74.7% 0.0% 0.0% Total consumption 13,973,140 13,334,889 13,303,820 13,199,781 13,053,183 13,060,688 -912,452 -6.5% 100.0% 100.0% Developing AP: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017 100% Developing AP: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters) 40% 80% 2017 share 1,800 30% 1,700 60% 20% 40% 10% 20% 0% 0% 2012 2013 Gasoline 2014 Diesel 2015 Hybrid 2016 PEV+PHEV 2017 1,600 1,500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 DI Growth analytics (2012-2017) Transmission outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. 14,637,574 15,294,638 16,738,742 17,897,994 19,220,596 20,365,912 5,728,338 39.1% 59.7% 52.9% 2 Automatic 7,693,012 8,291,453 8,981,659 9,761,604 10,428,830 10,844,193 3,151,181 41.0% 31.4% 28.2% 3 Continuously Variable 1,305,132 1,732,249 2,390,758 2,836,335 3,000,243 3,334,586 2,029,454 155.5% 5.3% 8.7% 4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 704,433 1,318,756 1,627,307 2,325,925 3,213,559 3,511,782 2,807,349 398.5% 2.9% 9.1% 5 Automated Manual 144,123 184,799 188,516 222,730 244,875 276,991 132,868 92.2% 0.6% 0.7% 33,598 47,967 58,865 112,531 138,118 142,009 108,411 322.7% 0.1% 0.4% 24,517,872 26,869,862 29,985,847 33,157,119 36,246,221 38,475,473 13,957,601 56.9% 100.0% 100.0% 1 Manual 6 Electric Total consumption 18 Autofacts October 2013 % chg 2012 share 2017 share For more information please visit us at www.autofacts.com

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