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Etude PwC marché automobile européen Q3 (2013)

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Etude sur le marché automobile européen pays par pays pour le 3e trimestre 2013.

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  • 1. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. October 2013 Growth in July and September helped the EU record the first positive quarter in two years. With the UK making a disproportionate contribution and some markets still falling, the situation remains finely balanced but Autofacts believes this quarter has marked a turning point in the overall EU market. EU: Green shoots growing? Growth seen in the third quarter European Market Review EU+EFTA: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (millions) Source: European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale) Market commentary According to ACEA data and Autofacts estimates, EU+EFTA new car registrations grew by 2.7%, or 75k units in the third quarter, marking the first quarterly expansion in two years. This better than anticipated result was due to growth of 5% in July and an estimated 5.5% in September suggesting that the market as a whole has indeed now bottomed out, as anticipated previously. For the year-to-date, the market has fallen by 4%, or 390k units, due largely to the very heavy fall seen in the first quarter. A key driver for the relatively strong September and third quarter performance was the UK. September is typically the second highest volume month in the UK, due to the date change on registration plates. However, owing to very strong growth of 12.1%, to 403,136 units, September was the strongest month this year, thus accounting for 58% of the total volume increase in the region. Nevertheless, the belief that the bottom may now have passed is supported by the Autofacts estimate that at least 18 of the 29 markets in the region achieved growth in September, as was the case in July. Two of the markets that have been hardest hit by the crisis over the past few years have been Portugal and Hungary and both are showing clear and consistent signs of growth. Hungary has now grown for seven consecutive months, and leapt by 32.4% in September. Portugal has grown for four successive months including a 15.9% increase in September. Sweden also recorded its third month of growth in a row with a pick up to 11.2% and Poland its fourth consecutive month of growth. Indeed Poland, which is the largest market amongst the newer members of the EU, achieved 13.2% growth in the third quarter. However, it is the top five markets that dominate regional volumes. In September, the UK, France and Spain achieved growth while a fall of just 1.2% in Germany and 2.9% in Italy helped minimise the negative impact. Germany remains something of a conundrum given the economic and employment situation, although demand weakness is partially attributed to the national elections in September and uncertainty over tax policy. Italy may remain weak for some months yet due to a VAT increase in October and continued political uncertainty. 70 80 90 100 110 120 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 EU-27 DE FR IT UK ES EU Top 5: Monthly Economic Sentiment (ECU) Source: European Commission
  • 2. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Forecast First half may have marked the bottom A slightly stronger third quarter than forecast, results in a full year upward revision although the fourth quarter could still see some negative results. michael.x.gartside@de.pwc.com Tel: +49(0)711250341104 Economic commentary and demand outlook While it is too soon to see how the economy performed in the third quarter, the second quarter economic growth figures surprised most observers with many markets including Germany and the UK achieving better than expected results and also showing France moving out of recession. Clearly, the economic situation in most countries remains challenging. But after the reasonably positive second quarter, many forward looking indicators suggest the economic picture could continue to improve. If we take the Eurostat Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) then these have shown very strong growth within both the Eurozone and the EU in recent months. A large increase in September for the EU took the reading to 100.6, above the long term average of 100 for the first time since July 2011. Likewise, if we take the EU Consumer Sentiment Indicator then again it has improved significantly in recent months in most economies. For the EU as a whole it stood at -11.7 in September, above the long run average of -12.3. Within the smaller Eurozone, it improved to -14.9 which is just below the long run average of -13.3 and the highest level recorded since July 2011. These improving sentiment indicators are supported by Markit’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), which suggested the recovery gathered pace through the third quarter, with the index improving to a 27 month high of 52.2 in June. Markit also stated that the jobs outlook was improving with the rate of jobs losses easing to a very moderate pace. In the previous European Market Review July 2013 issue, Autofacts reported improving sentiment and PMI indicators and suggested these should start translating into a better demand situation in the third quarter and this did indeed happen. If we see a repeat, with the relatively bullish third quarter forward looking indicators translating into growing demand in the fourth quarter then the year should end on a positive note. However, Autofacts remains cautious about the fourth quarter for a number of reasons. Demand in France and the UK was relatively strong in late 2012 making year-on-year comparisons less favourable, especially given the economic and fiscal headwinds faced by France. In addition, the outlook for Italy remains challenging also, given the VAT increase and continued political uncertainty. Finally in Germany, where the market remains stubbornly weak despite the positive economic situation, it remains to be seen if there will be a post election improvement in demand. Nevertheless, with the Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) standing at 12.9m units in September, the highest level since January 2012, and many of the other EU markets now clearly returning to growth, Autofacts has raised its full-year forecast for 2013 to 12.15m units, a 3% fall over 2012. Conversely, Autofacts has slightly reduced its 2014 outlook, due to a more cautious outlook for France and Italy, forecasting growth of around 3.5% to just under 12.6m units. If the employment situation improves more rapidly than currently assumed, this could provide some upside potential. Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom EU+EFTA: new car SAAR & forecast (millions) Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis -2.5% -1.5% -0.5% 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% EZ DE FR UK IT ES 2013 2014 15-19 EU Top 5: Economic outlook – GDP growth (%) Source: PwC Economics (September 2013) 10 12 14 16 18 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast
  • 3. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Forecast 1.5 2 2.5 3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast France A difficult start to 2013 mixed with a lack of visibility is holding back consumers. Source: Comité des Constructeurs Français d’Automobiles (CCFA) -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 50 100 150 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec 2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale) France: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s) Market Commentary CCFA data showed that new car registrations dropped by 1.2% to 378,024 units in the third quarter. This moderated the fall recorded since the beginning of 2013 to -8.5%, 1,309,858 units, although this was the lowest first nine month result since 1997. With respective increase of 0.9% and 3.4% in comparison to 2012, July and September suggest the French market may be bottoming out, although year-on-year declines in the fourth quarter are likely given the strong fourth quarter of 2012. In addition, several elements must be highlighted. September was boosted by an extra selling day. The positive results are also partly explained by the high level of “tactical sales” (demonstration cars, rentals, etc.) and in September these sales amounted to more than 17% of the 142,211 units. The numerous product launches from the French carmakers in the second and third quarter also help to explain the slightly more positive situation. France: new car SAAR & forecast (millions) Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis France: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator The third quarter showed improvement of the overall French economic sentiment. The industry and consumer confidence indicators improved respectively by more than 4.5 and 7 points compared to the previous quarter. But France is the only major EU economy to experience a deterioration in economic sentiment since Autumn last year, when the low point was reached in most economies. Plus, for the second quarter in a row, its indicators are lower than the ones of Spain or Italy. However, contrary to statistical data, some polls show that individuals and companies are feeling that the French economic situation is not improving. The reforms that have been introduced, including the new tax increases and reductions of state subsidies, are not seen to meet the structural problems of the country. It doesn’t offer them clear visibility for the future, which is weighing on consumer sentiment. To add to that, the prospect of an increase in the VAT could constrain economic growth prospects. The third quarter SAAR, at 1.76m, was the highest quarterly result this year. While Autofacts forecasts a further improvement in the SAAR in the final quarter, given the relatively strong fourth quarter in 2012, this still equates to a falling market on a year- on-year comparison basis. For the year as a whole Autofacts maintains its forecast at 1.75m units, a 7.9% fall over 2012. Due to the challenging economic situation and increased tax burden, Autofacts sees little prospect for a strong recovery in France in 2014 and forecast growth of just 2.9% to 1.8m units. Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom josselin.chabert@fr.pwc.com Tel: +33(0)156577158 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 70 80 90 100 110 120 Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13 FR Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale) Consumer (R-scale) Source: European Commission (September 2013)
  • 4. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Forecast Germany: new car SAAR & forecast (millions) Germany Despite weak demand in the first three quarters, strong economic sentiment combined with certainty over future tax policies in Q4 could turn the market Source: Kraftfahrt-Bundesamt (KBA) -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 100 200 300 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec 2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale) Germany: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s) Market Commentary In September new car sales in Germany fell by 1.2% to 247,199 units according to KBA data. This resulted in a market contraction of 6.0% to 2.22m units for the first three quarters of 2013. While this is a weak result, the fall in new car registrations at least slowed when looking at the market evolution by quarter. The decrease in new car sales in the first quarter by 12.9% followed by a fall of 3.7% in the second quarter can be partly explained by the strong first half of the German market in 2012. Thus, the 1.4% fall from July to September could mark the end of the market’s contraction. While new car demand weakened in Germany, economic sentiment increased markedly over the last year, reaching a 17-month high in September according to the European Commission. The German market research institute GfK even forecasts that consumer confidence will hit its highest level in six years heading into October. Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis Germany: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator -20 -10 0 10 20 80 90 100 110 120 Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13 DE Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale) Consumer (R-scale) Although Germany’s unemployment rate rose to 6.9% in September, it remained close to its lowest level since reunification more than two decades ago. Driven by the stable labor market and historically low interest rates, German consumers, who traditionally tend to save, became more willing to spend in September than at any point since December 2006. Given the weak demand for new cars but the strong willingness to buy, the question remains why the positive consumer sentiment is not reflected in vehicle demand. One possible explanation can be found in a political rather than an economic issue. Although Angela Merkel's conservative party recently won the national elections, a coalition partner has to be found after falling just short of a parliamentary majority. While Merkel unequivocally rejected tax hikes in the election campaign, it is thought that she is likely to seek a grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPD) who had campaigned on a platform of tax increases for Germany's highest earners. Therefore, it is possible that some consumers fear tax hikes and thus defer purchases until future tax policies become certain. Despite a low SAAR of 2.91m units in September, given the said factors, Autofacts forecast a recovery in the SAAR by fourth quarter. This results in an expected overall decline of 3.6% to 2.98m units for the German market in 2013. Further, given the current average age of the German car fleet is now at a record high of 8.7 years, pent-up demand is building, which is expected to enhance demand in the mid-term, contributing to a return to growth in 2014 with a 2.4% increase to 3.05m units. 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom Keisuke.Kusaba@de.pwc.com Tel: +49(0)711250341457Source: European Commission (September 2013)
  • 5. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Forecast Italy Despite some positive economic developments, Italy faces a number of challenges which could undermine recovery hopes over the short-term. Source: Ministero delle Infrastrutture e Trasporto (MIT), ISTAT -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 50 100 150 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec 2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale) Italy: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s) Market Commentary A lot has been said regarding a potential market recovery, which would benefit the whole value chain, but in relation to Italy signs remain elusive. The whole local automotive value chain has been in survival mode for over three years and, as a confirmation of this downward trend, July closed with 107,848 units, a fall of 1.6 % year-on-year, August with 52,997 units, a decline of 6.6 % year- on-year, and September posted 106,363 units, a fall of 2.9 % year-on-year. For the year-to-date, registrations fell by 8.34% to 1,000,032 units. Viewed against 2007 pre-crisis volumes, the contraction is even worse at -48%. Weak market performance is partially due to heavy fiscal pressures recently introduced from the Italian government negatively impacting the purchase of new vehicles. These include duties, taxes and high maintenance costs, with the tax element on fuel now equating to 58.4% of the price. Italy: new car SAAR & forecast (millions) Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis Italy: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator -60 -40 -20 0 60 80 100 120 Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13 IT Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale) Consumer (R-scale) Further negative influences come in the form of the convergence of political instability and increased VAT, boosted from 21% to 22%, which may further weaken the already depressed demand for vehicles. As a consequence, the Italian automotive market is going through a transition which, on one side, alternative fuel vehicles achieved 15.2% year-to-date of penetration and, on the other side, a progressive switch toward smaller size segments is taking place (A segment went from 18.8% in 2012 to 19.1 in 2013 and MINI SUV’s from 2.6% to 4.2%). Some hope may be taken from Italian National Institute of Statistics’ (ISTAT) consumer confidence index posting an improved attitude toward the purchase of durable goods (turning from 97.4 to 98.3). In addition, the Italian dealer network displayed a positive sentiment for the coming quarter in combination with a higher flow of visitors, according to Centro Studi Promotor (CSP). Despite these potential positive developments, downside risks in the form of the current macro- economic landscape and increased tax burden, appear stronger and demand is expected to remain underperforming. As a result, Autofacts has marginally downgraded its full-year forecast for Italy to 1.28m units, an 8.8% decline on 2012. 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom giorgio.elefante@it.pwc.com Tel: +390280646325Source: European Commission (September 2013)
  • 6. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Forecast Spain The extension, again, of Spain’s PIVE incentive plan continues to support the market at a 700k unit level. Source: Association of Spanish Automobile Manufacturers (ANFAC) -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 25 50 75 100 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec 2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale) Spain: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s) Market Commentary In September, new car registrations in Spain rose by 28.5% to 45,175 units according to ANFAC. Strong year-on-year growth was virtually inevitable given the very weak September 2012 as a result of the VAT increase at the start of that month. In addition, an extra selling day further helped as did the extension of the PIVE scrappage scheme with PIVE3. This growth helped the market record a decline of just 1.6% in the first nine months to 546,435 units. Not surprising, given the plan PIVE scrappage schemes, it is private buyers that are supporting the market at this low level, with a 69.4% leap in registration in September to 28,695 units. For the year-to-date, volumes were up by 10.5% to 283,347 units. Conversely, sales to companies remain weak, with a 10.9% fall in September to just 14,737 units while for the year-to- date they have fallen by 20.4% to 138,636 units. Spain: new car SAAR & forecast (millions) Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis Spain: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator -60 -40 -20 0 80 90 100 110 Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13 ES Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale) Consumer (R-scale) With the holiday season coming to an end, September is inevitably a small month for rental sales, although the 1,743 units did represent a 4.3% year-on-year increase. For the year-to-date, rental companies have bought 124,450 cars, a 0.4% increase on 2012. While Spain remains in recession, and continues to suffer from extremely high unemployment and faces significant challenges, the dramatic improvements seen in sentiment over the past year may point towards an improving situation over the next six months. Consumer sentiment has improved from -40 in December to -17.5, only slightly below the average of -14.5 since 1990. Likewise, economic sentiment has improved consistently over the past year, but gained strength in recent months. Less positive was the second monthly decline in the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), although it still stood well above levels seen over the previous 24 months. The Spanish SAAR has been remarkably stable this year and stood at 720k units in September. As a result, Autofacts maintains its forecast for 700k units for the full-year. For 2014, one of the biggest concerns now is the impact of a withdrawal of the government scrappage incentive. So far, each PIVE scheme has been relatively small so the improving economic fundamentals may offset any negative influence from scrappage withdrawal. Therefore, on balance, Autofacts forecast a marginal increase in Spanish demand to 710k units in 2014. 0.5 1 1.5 2 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom Source: European Commission (September 2013) michael.x.gartside@de.pwc.com Tel: +49(0)711250341104
  • 7. Autofacts R For information regarding our products and services please visit us at www.autofacts.com © 2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each of which is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details. This content is for general information purposes only, and should not be used as a substitute for consultation with professional advisors. Forecast United Kingdom Registrations in September were the highest since March 2008, with an improving economy increasingly supporting the growth being seen. Source: Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 0 100 200 300 400 Jan Feb Mar Apr MayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec 2012 2013 % Change 2013 vs 2012 (R-scale) UK: Monthly car sales 2012-2013 (000s) Market Commentary According to SMMT data, the UK market experienced an extremely strong September, with registrations up by 12.1% to 403,176 units. This was the highest monthly result since March 2008 and contributed to third quarter growth of 12.2% to 631,301 units, the highest third quarter result since 2007. For the year-to-date, registrations grew by 10.8% to 1,794,924 units. Private consumers continue to drive the market with registrations up by 17.9% in September and 16.7% for the year-to- date. As a result, private share of the market in September, at 51.8%, was the highest since March 2010 and for the year-to-date, at 48.4%, the highest since 2009. Part of this boom in private demand is being driven by the widespread cash payments made in compensation for mis-sold payment protection insurance (PPI). With around £8bn paid out in 2012 and a greater amount expected this year, these windfall cash payments are providing a large cash boost to UK consumers. UK: new car SAAR & forecast (millions) Source: PwC Autofacts Analysis UK: Sentiment and Confidence Indicator -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 70 80 90 100 110 120 Mar-11Jul-11Nov-11Mar-12Jul-12Nov-12Mar-13Jul-13 UK Economic Sentiment Industry (R-scale) Consumer (R-scale) However, while this cash windfall has no doubt helped the UK market, the company car sector is also showing stronger growth as the year progresses. At the mid-year point, company car registrations were just 4.3% up, but by the nine month point they had grown by 8.5%. While strong incentives and key new models are helping the market, it appears that economic fundamentals are increasingly playing their part. Second quarter economic output was stronger than anticipated and unemployment is now starting to fall. In addition, dramatic increases have been seen in the consumer and economic sentiment indicators over the past few months which support the positive picture. Consumer sentiment leapt from -17.5 in May to -1.0 in September, well ahead of the average of -10 since 1990. Likewise, economic sentiment stood at 115.4, well above the 100 average and just below the peak level of 116.5. These suggest that demand should remain strong in the coming months. The SAAR stood at 2.38m in September, the highest level since the scrappage scheme boosted the market in late 2009. Given the extremely strong September, the dramatic improvement in sentiment and stronger economic position, Autofacts has raised its full-year forecast for the UK to 2.22m units some 8.6% higher than 2012. However, with the impact of the PPI compensation likely to diminish next year, and economic growth likely to remain below its long run average, we do not see demand continuing to grow at these exalted levels and forecast moderate growth of 2.2% to 2.27m into 2014. Europe France / Germany / Italy / Spain / United Kingdom michael.x.gartside@de.pwc.com Tel: +49(0)711250341104Source: European Commission (September 2013) 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 SAAR Annual Sales Sales Forecast