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Etude PwC créances non-stratégiques (2014)
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Etude PwC créances non-stratégiques (2014)

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Les transactions relatives aux portefeuilles de crédit "non core" en Europe ont atteint 64 milliards d’euros en 2013, notamment grâce aux cessions dans l’immobilier commercial et celles de crédits particuliers. En 2014, PwC prévoit que ces cessions connaîtront une croissance de 25%, pour atteindre 80 milliards d’euros.

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Etude PwC créances non-stratégiques (2014) Etude PwC créances non-stratégiques (2014) Presentation Transcript

  • European Portfolio Advisory Group Market update March 2014 Click to launch
  • 2
  • 3 Richard Thompson Chairman, European Portfolio Advisory Group, PwC UK European non-core asset outlook and transactions in key markets Welcome to our latest market update. In this issue, we provide an overview of the 2013 activity levels in the European non core asset market and give you our forecast as to likely trends in 2014. Overall, 2013 has seen market activity levels increased significantly compared to 2012, making 2013 a record year from a transaction perspective. We estimate that loans with a face value of c€64bn have traded across Europe, exceeding our estimate at the beginning of 2013 of €60bn. Increased activity levels were mainly driven by the UK and Ireland along with Spain and Germany, even after excluding the large one off sale of the Fortis bad bank. Commercial real estate and generally property backed lending remained the most popular asset class among investors with an estimated €18bn (face value) of commercial real estate loans changing hands during 2013. Unsecured retail lending was the second most popular asset class. There was a record increase of c50% in 2013 compared to 2012. We expect that 2014 will be another record year for the European non core asset market, with activity levels expected to reach c€80bn. We estimate that loan portfolios with a total face value of more than €30bn have closed or are in the process as at the time of publication, while our team is working on transactions involving assets with a face value of c€10bn. Private Equity funds have been the most active buyers in 2013. We expect that to continue in 2014 taking into consideration the significant amounts of investment funds raised and also the availability of debt financing, especially for the more established players in the sector. For 2014, we expect property backed lending to remain the most active asset class and activity levels in a number of Southern European markets and CEE to see a gradual increase, albeit from a relatively small base. I hope you find this publication useful, and if you would like any further information please contact me or any of my colleagues listed at the end of this document. 3
  • 4 2013 was a record year for non core loan transactions The UK experienced the highest increase in activity compared to 2012. Commercial real estate remained the most popular asset class being traded. Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets Source: Publicly available information, PwC information, estimate and analysis Note: ‘Specialised’ includes certain structured and asset backed products along with shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation loans The increase in the UK transaction volume was mainly driven by sales of loan portfolios by Lloyds Banking Group. The uptake in volume in Belgium is driven by the Fortis bad bank transaction. €0 €10 €20 €30 €40 €50 €60 €70 €80 €90 2014 2m201320122011 Other, €4bn Spain, €4bn Ireland, €15bn UK, €9bn UK, €10bn UK, €23.5bn Ireland, €2bn Spain, €9.5bn Germany, €10bn Belgium, €11.5bn Italy, €5bn Netherlands, €2bn Other, €0.5bn Ireland, €3bn Spain, €9bn Germany, €10bn France, €9bn Italy, €4bn Other €1bn €46bn €36bn €64bn Estimated, €44bn In progress, €24bn Spain, €1bn Ireland, €11bn Est. €80bn Portugal, €4bn Facevalue(€bn) Unsecured retail portfolio sales have incresed to c€15bn as we have seen increased transaction volume in both the UK and Spain. The uptake in volume in CRE loan portfolio transactions was mainly driven by several large CRE portfolio sales by UK and German banks. 2014 2m201320122011 €0 €10 €20 €30 €40 €50 €60 €70 €80 €90 Specialised, €6bn Unsecured Retail,€6bn Unsecured Retail, €10bn Secured Retail, €2bn CRE, €18bn CRE, €13bn CRE, €18bn Secured Retail, €9bn Unsecured Retail, €15bn SME/Corporate, €4.5bn Specialised, €17.5bn Secured Retail, €6bn SME/Corporate, €3bn Specialised, €14bn €46bn €36bn €64bn Estimated, €44bn In progress, €24bn UK, €9bn Est. €80bn SME/Corporate, €1bn SME/Corporate, €3bn Facevalue(€bn)
  • 2013 deals in key markets 5 UK Note: ‘Specialised’ includes certain structured and asset backed products along with shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation loans Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets Source: Publicly available information, PwC information, estimate and analysis Ireland €0 €2 €4 €6 €8 €10 €12 €14 €16 €18 €20 €22 €24 €26 €28 2014 2m201320122011 Other, €4bn Unsecured Retail, €3bn Secured Retail, €0.5bn SME/Corporate, €0.4bn CRE, €5bn Secured Retail, €6bn Unsecured Retail, €6bn SME/Corporate, €1.5bn Specialised, €5bn CRE, €6bn CRE, €5bn SME/Corporate, €2bn €10bn €9bn €23.5bn In progress, €2bn €2bn+ Facevalue(€bn) Secured Retail, €0.2bn Unsecured Retail, €1bn Specialised, €1bn Unsecured retail was one of the most active asset class traded in 2013. Along with small-size transactions that usually take place in the market, we have seen a number of large portfolio sales which have driven up the transaction volume in 2013. CRE continues to be one of the most actively traded asset class in the UK. The main seller in 2013 was Lloyds Banking Group. The increase in transaction volume is mainly by Lloyds Banking Group’s sale of its Australian assets. €0 €2 €4 €6 €8 €10 €12 €14 €16 €18 €20 €22 €24 €26 €28 2014 2m201320122011 Specialised, €2bn Secured Retail, €1bn CRE, €12bn CRE, €0.9bn CRE, €8.5bn CRE, €2bn €3bn €15bn €2bn In progress, €16bn SME/Corporate, €2.5bn €26bn+ Facevalue(€bn) Secured Retail, €0.7bn Unsecured Retail, €0.7bn SME/Corporate, €0.3bn Specialised, €2bn A number of loan portfolio transactions sold by the IBRC liquidator have completed or are near completion in 2014, including Project Evergreen, Rock and Salt. In addition, there is a significant number of portfolio sales currently in progress or close to closing from IBRC and NAMA. Property-backed loans remain one of the major asset classes traded in Ireland. NAMA and AIB were some of the most active sellers in 2013.
  • 6 2013 deals in key markets Note: ‘Specialised’ includes certain structured and asset backed products along with shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation loans Spain Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets Source: Publicly available information, PwC information and analysis Germany €0 €2 €4 €6 €8 €10 €12 €14 €16 2014 2m201320122011 CRE, €5bn In progress, €5bn CRE, €9bn €10bn <€1bn €10bn SME/Corporate, €2.5bn €5bn+ Facevalue(€bn) Secured Retail, €0.2bn Unsecured Retail, €0.2bn Specialised, €5bn Specialised, €0.6bn The largest in progress transaction at the moment is the c€4bn Commerzbank’s Spanish loan portfolio sale. Activity levels in Germany were driven by the sale of CRE portfolio by German banks in non core markets such as the UK and the US. An example of this is the sale of €5bn Eurohypo’s UK CRE loan portfolio. €0 €2 €4 €6 €8 €10 €12 €14 €16 2014 2m201320122011 Secured Retail, €3bn Secured Retail, €2bn In progress, €2bn SME/Corporate, €0.5bn Unsecured Retail, €6bn €10bn €4bn €9.5bn €2.5bn+Facevalue(€bn) SME/Corporate, €1.5bn SME/Corporate, €0.7bn SME/Corporate, €0.2bn Secured Retail, €0.3bn CRE, €0.2bn Unsecured Retail, €6bn Unsecured Retail, €4bn Spain remains one of the most active markets in Europe as banks continue to deleverage their balance sheets, particularly on unsecured and property-backed retail assets.
  • 7 7 2013 deals in key markets Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets. ‘Specialised’ includes certain structured and asset backed products along with shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation loans Source: Publicly available information, PwC information, estimate and analysis Italy €0 €2 €4 €6 €8 €10 €12 €14 2014 2m201320122011 Secured Retail, €2bn Unsecured Retail, €2.5bn SME/Corporate, €2bn €4bn <€1bn €5bn Facevalue(€bn) Secured Retail, €0.2bn Unsecured Retail, €2bn Unsecured retail continues to be one of the most actively traded asset classes in Italy. There were several large portfolio transactions in 2013, including the sales of a number of portfolios by Unicredit and Monte Paschi.