Etude PwC sur les portefeuilles de créances non performantes en Europe (2013)

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Les portefeuilles de créances non performantes détenus par les banques en Europe sont estimés aujourd’hui à plus de 1 200 milliards d’euros selon PwC

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  • 1. European Portfolio Advisory Group Market update October 2013 Click to launch
  • 2. 2 Publication Issue
  • 3. European NPL outlook and transactions in key markets Welcome to our bi-annual market update. This short document covers our latest analysis of the level of non-performing loans around Europe, together with a quick round up of loan portfolio transactions. Richard Thompson Chairman, European Portfolio Advisory Group 3 Publication Issue Reported NPLs have continued to increase mainly driven by countries in Southern Europe (mainly Italy, Spain and Greece), along with Ireland. There are 6 countries, Germany, the UK, Spain, Ireland, Italy and France that are reporting NPLs in excess of €100bn in their banking system at the end of 2012 – a staggering total of nearly €900bn. With an uncertain economic climate it is difficult to forecast any meaningful reduction in aggregate across Europe and indeed we believe that reported NPLs in many countries will continue to rise over the next couple of years, adding further impetus to the already buoyant loan portfolio market. In calendar year 2012 we saw loan portfolios with a face value of €46bn trade, primarily originated from banks in the UK, Ireland, Spain and Germany and at the beginning of this calendar year we forecast an increasing volume of deals in 2013 – with a face value of €60bn. We have not been disappointed, with over €46bn transacted in the first 8 months with a further €12bn in the pipeline. Our expectations for the year are likely to be exceeded – indeed we are currently lead advising on deals totalling over €8bn which we expect to complete by end of the year. Price, of course, remains a much talked about issue when looking at the potential for transactions. Our latest survey of investor return requirements will be published in the next few weeks. This survey, covering expected buying behaviour, shows return requirements remaining largely unchanged over the last year – but there is fierce competition for deals and demand continues to outstrip supply. I hope you find this publication useful, and if you would like any further information please contact me or one of my colleagues listed at the end of this document. These transactions are set against the backdrop of a continuing significant deleveraging challenge facing many of Europe’s largest banks – the majority of the top 50 having established non-core or equivalent divisions, comprising both performing and non-performing lending, with the objective of achieving an increased focus on selling or running down unwanted assets. 3
  • 4. NPL by country 2008–2012 In billions EUR 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Germany 142 204 192 179 179 United Kingdom 88 155 172 172 164 Spain 66 97 111 136 167 Ireland 15 88 109 119 135 Italy 42 59 78 107 125 France 51 77 133 133 125 Sub-total 404 680 795 846 895 Netherlands 32 58 52 52 57 Greece 12 19 27 40 56 Russia n/a 27 32 34 39 Austria 9 12 17 18 21 Poland 9 12 15 15 17 Portugal 5 8 10 12 17 Ukraine 11 11 11 12 16 Denmark 8 13 16 17 15 Sweden 7 15 14 13 13 Romania 1 3 5 6 11 Hungary 2 3 5 7 8 Turkey 7 10 10 8 8 Czech Republic 3 4 5 6 6 Norway 2 4 4 4 5 Slovakia 1 2 2 2 2 Finland 1 1 1 1 1 Total Europe 514 882 1,021 1,093 1,187 Sources: Company accounts, other public information, and PwC analysis 4 4
  • 5. Market liquidity High Tier 2 Low market liquidity High NPL level Tier 1 (Liquid market with large NPL size) This tier represents mature loan transaction markets that are a main focus of international investors. This tier includes UK, Spain, Ireland and Germany. We expect these markets will continue to be key non core asset markets in 2013/14. Tier 1 High market liquidity High NPL level Germany Spain UK Tier 2 (Illiquid market with large NPL size) This tier includes France and Italy, two of the largest European markets that remain relatively illiquid considering the overall NPL levels. French banks have been active in exiting their overseas non core businesses in recent years but have been relatively inactive domestically. In Italy, loan transaction levels have been gradually increasing after a long period of inactivity. We expect these trends will continue in 2013/14. Size of NPL Ireland Italy France Tier 3 Low market liquidity Low NPL level Greece Netherlands Nordic CEE Austria Portugal Turkey Low Transaction volume High Tier 3 (Illiquid markets with moderate NPL size) This tier includes moderate size markets with relatively few non core asset transactions. Greece and the Netherlands are the largest markets in this tier with the highest level of NPLs. We expect the two markets to become the focus of investors over the next 12-24 months. Note: Our index above rates the key European markets taking into consideration the overall size of NPLs in 2012, along with the cumulative level of transactions over the period Jan 2010 to Aug 2013. Source: PwC analysis 5
  • 6. €46bn of loan portfolios have traded in first 8 months of 2013 CRE and unsecured retail remain the most actively traded asset class €70 €70 €60 €40 €36bn France €9bn Belgium €11.5bn Other €4bn €30 Germany €7.5bn €20 Ireland €15bn €36bn €30 Unsecured Retail €9bn €20 UK €9bn €10 UK €10bn €0 €0 2010 2011 2012 Source: Publicly available information, PwC information and analysis Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets Specialised €15.5bn 2013 8m SME/Corporate €3bn SME/Corporate €2.5bn Unsecured Retail €10bn Unsecured Retail €10bn Secured Retail €3bn Secured Retail €2bn €11bn UK €13bn UK €8bn SME/Corporate €1bn Spain €8.5bn Ireland €3bn Other €3bn Specialised €14bn Specialised €6bn Ireland €1.5bn €11bn €10 Spain €9bn €46bn Spain €4bn €40 Secured Retail €6bn Portugal €4bn Germany €10bn In progress €12bn €46bn Other €2bn Netherlands €2bn Face value (€bn) Italy €4bn PwC forecast €1bn €50 €46bn Other €1bn €60bn+ €60 In progress €12bn €50 Face value (€bn) €60bn+ PwC forecast €1bn €46bn The uptake in volume in Belgium is driven by the Fortis bad bank transaction. Specialised €4bn CRE €18bn CRE €13bn SME/Corporate €2bn Unsecured Retail €1bn Secured Retail €1bn CRE €3bn 2010 2011 2012 CRE €15bn 2013 8m Note: “Specialised” includes certain structured and asset backed products, shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation exposures 6
  • 7. 2013 deals in key markets Germany UK A number of large CRE loan portfolio sales took place in German banks in 2013. This includes the sale of €4.7bn of Eurohypo’s UK CRE loan portfolio, Deutsche Bank’s sale of the €2.7bn US CRE loan portfolio and the sale of Postbank’s €1.5bn UK CRE portfolio currently close to completion. €18 €16 €18 €16 €12 €10bn €9bn+ €8 Specialised €5bn In progress €1.5bn Secured Retail €0.2bn €6 Face value (€bn) €14 €12 Face value (€bn) €14 €10 CRE loan portfolios remain one of the most actively traded class of assets in the UK. We have seen more CRE loan portfolios transactions completed in the first 8 months of 2013 and expect the transaction volume to increase significantly over the remainder of 2013. €10bn €10 €9bn €8 CRE €7.5bn In progress €4.5bn Specialised €4bn SME/Corporate €0.4bn SME/Corporate €2bn €7bn Unsecured Retail €3bn €6 Specialised €4bn €17bn+ Specialised €1bn SME/Corporate €0.4bn Unsecured Retail €0.2bn €4 A number of large unsecured portfolio sales have contributed to the increase in unsecured retail transaction volume. Unsecured Retail €1bn Secured Retail €0.2bn Unsecured Retail €4bn Secured Retail €0.5bn €4 Secured Retail €0.6bn CRE €6bn CRE €5bn €2 €0 <€1bn 2010 €2 CRE €5bn CRE €4bn Unsecured Retail €1bn <€1bn 2011 SME/Corporate €2bn 2012 Source: Publicly available information, PwC information and analysis Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets 2013 8m €0 CRE €0.3bn 2010 2011 2012 2013 8m Note: “Specialised” includes certain structured and asset backed products, shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation exposures 7
  • 8. 2013 deals in key markets Ireland Spain €18 €18 €16 €15bn €14 Specialised €2bn Secured Retail €1bn €12 Transaction volume in 2013 is expected to exceed 2012. We expect that the potential sale of IBRC's loan portfolios will significantly increase the volume of transactions during the rest of 2013 and early 2014. We believe that corporate and property backed loans (including land) will continue to dominate the Irish market. €10 €8 CRE €12bn €6 €14 €12 Face value (€bn) €16 Face value (€bn) Unsecured retail continued to be the most actively traded class in Spain, making up €6bn of completed deals and the vast majority of transactions in progress. €10bn €10 SME/Corporate €0.7bn In progress €1bn €8 SME/Corporate €0.4bn Unsecured Retail €6bn €6 €4bn €4.5bn+ €4 €2 In progress €3bn Unsecured Retail €4bn €2 Secured Retail €3bn Secured Retail €0.7bn €0 <€1bn 2010 CRE €0.9bn 2011 2012 Source: Publicly available information, PwC information and analysis Note: Based on the location of the head office of the bank selling the assets Unsecured Retail €6bn SME/Corporate €0.2bn €4 €3bn Specialised €0.5bn SME/Corporate €0.3bn Unsecured Retail €0.7bn €9bn+ CRE €1.5bn €0 2013 8m <€1bn 2010 Secured Retail €2bn Secured Retail €0.3bn CRE €0.2bn 2011 2012 2013 8m Note: “Specialised” includes certain structured and asset backed products, shipping, infrastructure, energy and aviation exposures The above analysis includes both completed and in progress deals as at the time of publication 8
  • 9. European commercial real estate loans pricing trends 2012 and 2013 European CRE loan portfolio market pricing Investor pricing expectations: European CRE 6.0 1 27% 3 5.0 Performing CRE 13% 14% Face value (€bn) 4.0 2 3.0 50% Non-performing CRE 2.0 63% 54% 1.0 0.0 0% 0-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 71-80 20% 1 9 In line with our 2013 investor survey, the majority of non-performing European CRE assets were priced at 41-50 c/€ range. Most of these portfolios were secured by assets in the UK and Germany and we have seen pricing varied widely depending on the asset quality and specific property locations. Publication Issue 60% 80% Expected discount (c/€) 91-100 Market pricing (c/€) completed transactions in 2012 and 2013) Source: Publicly available information, PwC analysis 40% 2011 2012 2013 Source: PwC Investor Survey 2013 2 Irish assets have generally attracted a lower price of between 10-40 c/€, with prominent difference in pricing between prime and non-prime properties. 3 Performing CRE assets were priced at a discount of around 10%. This is in line with the findings of our investor survey. 9
  • 10. pwc.com This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. © 2013 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, “PwC” refers to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (a limited liability partnership in the United Kingdom) which is a member firm of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each member firm of which is a separate legal entity. 130905-091946-ML-UK