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THT 2012 plenary opening_closing THT 2012 plenary opening_closing Presentation Transcript

  • www.pwc.comTreasury Hot Topics16 February 2012
  • Our Supporting Organisations/Speakers
  • Agenda13:45 - 14:30 Opening panel • Financial/Sovereign Debt/Euro Crisis Lessons learnt – What’s next?14:45 - 15:45 Break-out 1 • Treasury Organisation - A global crisis needs a global solution - Has your treasury model evolved to meet todays challenges? Peter van Rood (Akzo Nobel), Damien McMahon (PwC) • Risk Management Commodity Trading - No longer just for the traders! Greg Leck (Triple Point), Richard Cornielje (KYOS) Olivier Kaczmarek (PwC) • Bank account management - BAM or eBAM? For sure, time to onboard. But when and where to start? Francois Masquelier (RTL Group), Yves Garagnon (Equity), Carlo Palmers (Swift), Sophie Parker (HSBC), Richard Delvaux (PwC)15:45 - 16:15 Coffee break
  • Agenda16:15 - 17:30 Break-out 2 • Governance & Regulation - Regulation, regulation, regulation, are you prepared? Richard Raeburn (EACT), Hans Candries (PwC) • Technology - Latest Treasury Technology - New tools to navigate your way through the storm Peter Reynolds (Reval), Patrick Coleman (IT2), Jon Purr (SunGard), Steve Lambillotte (SAP), Gaëtan Dumont (UCB), Daphné Smets (PwC), Damien McMahon (PwC) • Tax - Taxation to pay the debt burden – Who will pay the bill? Philippe de Clippele (PwC), David Ledure (PwC)17:30 - 18:30 Closing panel • Impact of the Financial Crisis - Bank & corporate views18:30 - 20:00 Cocktail and Italian Wine Tasting Session
  • www.pwc.comQuestions
  • www.pwc.comOpening sessionFinancial/Sovereign Debt/Euro CrisisLessons learnt - Whats next?
  • Opening sessionFinancial/Sovereign Debt/Euro Crisis Lessons learntWhats next?• Peter De Keyzer (Chief Economist BNP Paribas Fortis)
  • A happy 2012 ? DE KEYZER Peter Chief Economist Brussels, 16th February 2012
  • Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 9
  • Outline • The Big Issues • Growth • The trouble with Europe • Convergence or divergence? • Regulation • Conclusion Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 10
  • The Big Issues Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 11
  • World growth Growth world economy (in %)65 Forecasts BNPP43210-1 92-01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 15 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 12
  • Emerging markets versus submerging markets? GDP growth: past and future 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 World Advanced US EMU Japan Emerging Economies Economies 1983-2000 2016 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 13
  • Debt or alive? Source: IMF Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 14
  • To boldly go where no central bank has gone before… Policy Rates 20 18 ECB Federal Reserve Bank of England 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan-80 Jan-82 Jan-84 Jan-86 Jan-88 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 15
  • Growth Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 16
  • Loss of confidence… Business Confidence Evolution of nominal long term interest rates over3 the last 5 years 62 51 40 3-1 2-2-3 ISM IFO BNB 1 German Bund 10Y US Treasury Bond 10Y-4 0 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/11 jan/12 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 17
  • The United States is alive… US: Real GDP Growth (% YoY)6543210 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1-2-3-4-5-6 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 18
  • 100 125 150 175 200 225 75 jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 Case Shiller House Price Index jan/09 jan/10 jan/11 …but still on intensive care 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 feb/82 feb/84 feb/86 feb/88 feb/90 feb/92 feb/94 feb/96 feb/98Economic Research feb/00| feb/02 Unemployment rate (in %) feb/04 feb/06Janaury 2012 feb/08| feb/1019
  • Growth as an export product… Bron: IMF Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 20
  • The West is no longer in the driving seat Energy consumption Commodities (Rebased Jan 2000 = 100) 600 CRB Commodity Price Index Copper 500 Grains (Corn) Metals 400 300 200 100 0 00 01 02 03 04 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 12 /0 /0 /0 /0 /0 /1 /1 n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ n/ j an j an j an j an j an j an j an ja ja ja ja ja jaSource: BP Energy Outlook 2030 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 21
  • The trouble with Europe Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 22
  • Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 23
  • Looked like a good time to tighten EMU: Real GDP Growth (% YoY) EMU: Consumer Price Inflation (% YoY)6 654 5 All Prices Core Prices3 421 30 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-1 2-2 1-3-4 0-5 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11-6 -1 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 24
  • Big divergences Business Confidence Consumer Confidence (National Surveys, standardized)) (European Commission Surveys, standardized))4 43 32 2 11 00 -1-1 -2-2 -3-3 Belgium Belgium -4 Greece Greece-4 -5 Germany Germany-5 -6-6 -7-7 -8 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 25
  • Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 26
  • Europe does not have a debt problem… Public Debt in 2011 (% GDP) Primary Budget deficit in 2011 (% GDP)250 0200 -2150 -4100 -6 50 -8 0 -10 USA EMU UK Japan USA EMU UK Japan Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 27
  • …but a governance problem Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 28
  • The boat gets rocked 10Y Government Bonds: Interest rate spread 10Y Government Bonds: Interest rate spread with German Bund 10Y (in bp) with German Bund 10Y (in bp)4000 40003750 37503500 35003250 32503000 30002750 2750 Belgium Belgium2500 2500 Greece2250 Greece 2250 Italy2000 Italy 20001750 1750 Spain Spain1500 1500 Portugal Portugal1250 1250 France1000 France 1000 750 750 Ireland Ireland 500 500 250 250 0 0 01/00 01/01 01/02 01/03 01/04 01/05 01/06 01/07 01/08 01/09 01/10 01/11 01/12 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 29
  • …German rates but no German behaviour Competitiveness (1999 = 100)115.0110.0105.0100.0 95.0 90.0 BLEU Germany Greece Spain 85.0 France Ireland Italy Netherl 80.0 ju 4 ju 5 ju 6 ju 7 ju 8 ju 9 ju 0 ju 1 ju 2 ju 3 ju 4 ju 5 ju 6 ju 7 ju 8 ju 9 ju 0 l/9 l/9 l/9 l/9 l/9 l/9 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/0 l/1 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 30
  • Convergence or divergence? Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 31
  • Eurozone gangreenSource: BIS Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 32
  • …affecting everybody Bank Credit Spreads (senior 5-year CDS)700 US Europe600 Asia UK500400300200100 0 jan/08 jan/09 jan/10 jan/11 jan/12 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 33
  • The Unholy Trinity Sovereign Economy Financial Institutions Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 34
  • Quid… EFSF: €440bn ESM: €500bn IMF ECB Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 35
  • …pro quo Change in Primary Budget Balance (% of GDP) Change in Primary Budget Balance (% of GDP) 2013-2012 2012-2011 LOOSER TIGHTER TIGHTER US US UK UK EMU EMU Portugal Portugal Greece Greece Ireland Ireland Italy Italy Spain SpainNetherlands Netherlands Germany Germany France France Belgium Belgium -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 0 1 2 3 4 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 36
  • Ready for the climb? Cyclically adjusted primary budget balance (% of potential GDP) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8-10 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 37
  • Austerity for years to come… Required CAPB, 2020-30 2020 Highest primary balance, 10-year rolling average Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 38
  • Regulation Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 39
  • Basel III: the message to banks 1. Reduce leverage ratio => smaller balance sheet 2. Higher solvency ratio => hold more capital 3. Liquidity coverage ratio => have high quality liquid assets to survive stress 4. Stable funding ratio => hold more stable liquidity • More selective with risks • More selective with long-term credits • The dash for cash Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 40
  • Conclusion Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 41
  • Conclusion• Growth => not enough in the West• Debt => far too much in the West• Austerity => for years to come• Inflation => structurally low and sensitive to commodities• Policy rates=> central banks keep rates low to help deleveraging• Regulation => Banks more careful with liquidity and credit Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 42
  • “The best thing about the future is that it comes one day at a time” - Abraham Lincoln (1809 -1865) Economic Research | Janaury 2012 | 43
  • www.pwc.comRooms location
  • Rooms locationOpening session Einstein ABC Level -1Break-out 1 Einstein ABC Level -1Treasury OrganisationBreak-out 1 Baekeland Level -1Risk Management Commodity tradingBreak-out 1 Newton BC Ground floor (0)Bank Account ManagementBreak-out 2 Baekeland Level -1Governance & RegulationBreak-out 2 Einstein ABC Level -1TechnologyBreak-out 2 Newton BC Ground floor (0)TaxClosing session Einstein ABC Level -1
  • www.pwc.comBreak-outTreasury Organisation
  • www.pwc.comClosing sessionImpact of the Financial CrisisBank & corporate views
  • Closing sessionImpact of the Financial CrisisBank & corporate views• Vincent Van Quickenborne (Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Pensions, former Minister of Economy)• Richard Raeburn (Chairman EACT)• Peter van Rood (Akzo Nobel Group Treasurer)• Yvan De Cock (Head of Corporate and Public Banking Belgium and Member of the Executive Committee of BNP Paribas Fortis)• Auke Leenstra (Citibank Country Officer Netherlands and Co-Head in the Benelux)• Didier Vandenhaute (PwC)
  • www.pwc.comThank you!