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Peter McCarthy - The Consumer Data that Matters Now

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For years now, publishers and data providers have been tracking the migration to ebooks, the migration to online purchasing, the decline of shelf space, and the differential speed at which different …

For years now, publishers and data providers have been tracking the migration to ebooks, the migration to online purchasing, the decline of shelf space, and the differential speed at which different parts of the book market are affected by all these changes.

Peter McCarthy of McCarthy Digital will kick off Publishers Launch BEA with a presentation about moving beyond our standard understanding of “industry data” to mining and analyzing the massive amounts of public data about readers: who they are and where they are. The data publishers care about, and that can really help inform publishers’ strategies, isn’t labeled “book publishing data” but is far more useful and actionable than much of what we try to decipher meaning from that is.

We’ll take a look not just at where we are and how we got here, but also at where book publishing is heading and at what data sets the industry should be looking at next.

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  • 1. The Consumer Data that Matters NowPublishers Launch Conference, BookExpo AmericaMay 29, 2013Peter McCarthy
  • 2. Executive SummaryThere are known knowns. These are things we know thatwe know. There are known unknowns. That is to say,there are things that we know we dont know. But thereare also unknown unknowns. There are things we dontknow we dont know.May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 3
  • 3. Contents»  Baseline»  The types of things we know well»  What we don’t know»  Why what we know isn’t enough»  What we can know much better§  How: a hypothetical use case»  What it may mean4May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 4. Baseline(who I am, what I talk about when I talk about data, today’s goal)5May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 5. Who am IMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 6
  • 6. Who am IMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 7
  • 7. Consumer marketing data today (and yesterday)»  Demographics§  Gender, age group, income level,education level, etc.§  Note: I include geographic region here»  Psychographics§  Beliefs, values, attitudes, opinions,“lifestyles”»  Behaviors§  What people have done, are doing, andare most likely to do nextMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 8
  • 8. Consumer marketing dataMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 9Consumer-Focused1.  Who2.  What3.  Why§  Product§  Place4.  Where5.  When6.  HowResults-Oriented§  Price§  PromotionMeasured§  What’s working§  What’s notOptimization?
  • 9. My goal»  Offering the suggestion that we understand our business wellenough today»  That we understand core book buyers pretty well»  Advancing these hypotheses:§  That we reach many readers with books they do not want§  That there are far more potential readers for each book wepublish than we do reach§  That this happens because of the percentage of time we spendlooking at different types of data»  Offering a suggestion on what we might do, how, and withwhat results for earned, paid, and owned marketing effortsMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 10
  • 10. The types of things we know well(A lot about books, the book marketplace, reader personae)11May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 11. US trade book sales continue shift online…May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 12Source: 2013 BookstatsBrick & Mortar8.037.472011 2012Net Sales ($B)5.726.932011 2012Net Sales ($B)
  • 12. …and to eBooks, though more slowly this yearMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 13642918692,1093,0422008 2009 2010 2011 2012+199%+143%+43%eBook Net Sales ($M)Logarithmic regression: R2=0.7853Source: 2013 Bookstats+355%
  • 13. eBook sales vary by categoryMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 14Source: 2013 Bookstats461985852164841,2914695921,8312010 2011 2012eBook Net Sales ($M)AdultFictionAdultNonfictionJuvenileFiction
  • 14. This data is required to manage our businesses»  And there is much more than just the Bookstats data I’ve gone overhere»  We also know a great deal based on our own internal data»  We also watch aggregate consumer trends and use digital platformsto derive insights»  Result:§  Informs strategy, aiding primarily in macro, strategic decision-making§  We still can’t predict the future: all eBook projections way off…May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 15Etc.
  • 15. The book buyer»  Peter Hildick-Smith of Codextook a look at 30k past 12month book buyers andasked:»  “Where did find out about thebook you last bought?”May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 1631%14%10%5%6%Physical RetailerReccomendationsAnalog Publicity4th Online MediaOnline BooksellersSource: Challenges to Book Discovery, DBW 2013»  13% of readers recommend to 38%A Very Nice Find
  • 16. §  Has created the personae of the“power buyer”§  17% of whom report acquiring “atleast weekly”§  Skews female (it’s a not a he or ashe, it’s a blend)§  Cluster in the 18 – 55 range§  Are well off, professionals, manyclerical workers, and homeworkers§  Favor eBooks over physical§  Many shifting toward tablets and, itseems, reading less§  Preferred tablet becoming iPad§  They as for top acquisition source(results to right)BISG’s “Power Buyer”The eBook Reader and “Power Buyer”May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 17How Acquired?0% 50% 100%GoogleeBooks.comLibrary or LibrarySiteApple iBooksBarnes & NobleAmazonPowerReaderStandardReaderSource: 2013 BISG Consumer Attitudes toward E-Books
  • 17. The “book and eBook reader”»  Reading and eReading habits§  75% of the US population 16 and over reads§  33% of that group had ether an eReader or a Tablet§  67% of book readers said they had read one in the past 12months§  23% 16 and over had read a book§  A lot on demographics67% of US book readers age >16 report theyHave read a book in the past 12 months=~157,754,850 potential consumersMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 18Source: Pew
  • 18. What we don’t know(Most of which won’t hurt us)19May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 19. Precise eBook market dynamics…May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 2064%22%10%3%“Conventional Wisdom”Amazon NookApple iBooks OthereBook Market Share Market Dynamics•  Conclusive Data onPricingLots of energy. smart thinking,and facts, but…•  The Effects of Self-publishingHuge. ISBN registrationsthrough Bowker + unknownmasses of KDP authors. Strongbelief they drive the averagebestseller price down…strong•  Much at all about AppleSurprising, given all the fuss.
  • 20. “Real” consumersMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 21»  That consumer for that book»  Enough of an understanding and approach on the spectrumof consumer relationships and how to have them»  We don’t know most of those 150M potential consumersWell-knownLightlytouched,slightlyknownCurrentlyUnknown butInteresting
  • 21. Why it isn’t enough(hypothesis: it is what we need, just not all of what we need)22May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 22. The industry is making a fairly smooth shift…May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 23Source: BISG Trends; BookstatsTotal US Trade Revenue with eBook Revenue Nested ($M)02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,00016,0002010 2011 2012eBooks PrintBut we’ve mostly managed to stay afloat while others have thrived…
  • 23. May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 24Unfair comp 1: Amazon share price: May ‘08 – May ‘13$78.45 / SHARE$269.07 / SHARE2008 2009 2010 2011 2012100200300
  • 24. Unfair comp #2: iPad growth 2010 – Q1 2013May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 25
  • 25. Unfair comp #3: Apple profits, same periodMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 26
  • 26. In the end, here’s why I think what we know isn’t enough»  We need to be demonstrably the best at connecting authors andtheir titles to the most, most right readers – efficiently and repeatedly»  What we know today allows us to run our businesses and manage ashift. That alone is no small feat…but…»  Basically, we’re surrounded…Except if we can better reach those …157,754,850 potential consumersMay9, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 27
  • 27. What we can know much better(hypothesis: it’s easier than we think)28May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 28. More about every potential reader»  Demographics»  Psychographics»  BehaviorsMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 29§  By using the consumer data that we do have§  But vastly increasing our efforts aroundaugmenting that with “raw” consumer data§  Using tools to systematize and, if possible,scale the knowledge and efforts
  • 29. Some (really useful) sources of consumer dataMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 30§  Social GraphThey know consumers.Now tying to offline sources.§  Ad PlatformOpen (APIs, Tools) andOptimized.§  Constant A/B testingFail fast, fix.§  Result: Happy Users/AdvertisersDespite incredible concerns overprivacy. Relevance trumps it.§  Search (& lots else)Massive share, joyoususers.§  Ad PlatformStill the of ad inventory at anall time high.§  Literally Building a BrainYes. All products data-driven.§  OpenAPIs and tools§  Massive growthWild adoption and usage.§  Ad PlatformTargeting getting there butthey know what they need toknow.§  TimelyAlmost “now.”§  Open (for now)Can get at the data.
  • 30. Obviously great tools for outbound marketing»  And outbound best practices must be understood to bestexecute»  However, it is when we§  Use them in specific public-facing ways…§  turn them around and extract consumer data…§  and mash that data with other sources of data…»  That we can triangulate a potential consumer-set vis-à-vis thethree attributes we need to market most effectively…»  Then we’ve got who, what, when, where, how, and why weneed to put the right message in front of the right person atthe right place at the right timeMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 31
  • 31. How: Big data, little data…right data, right time…May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 32Big Data§  Enterprise-scale tools§  Batch data extraction viaAPIs§  Used for listening, real-time platform monitoring§  Marketing automation§  Business intelligencedashboards and mash-ups§  Decision support,exceptions reporting§  Data-warehousing§  Report generation§  More…§  Lighter-weight tools tosupport same tactics§  Require “cobbling” totriangulate multiple datapoints§  But…§  Are readily accessible,easy-to-use, require lessorganizational change…§  And they workAre not mutually exclusive – in fact, employing both is a best practice
  • 32. FWIW: I use a subset of ~100 tools to triangulate, plan & executeMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 33Social Analytics§  Simply Measured§  Peek Anaytics§  SproutSocial§  Trackur§  Tweriod§  Tweepi§  Buffer + Bit.ly§  Twitter Ad Interface§  Etc.§  Facebook Insights§  Facebook AdInterface§  FacebookPowerEditor toCreate Audiences§  Facebook LookalikeAudiences§  EdgeRank Checker§  LinkedIn Ad Editor§  Pinterest Analytics§  Google Alerts§  Goodreads compauthors§  Etc.Web/SEOSupport Tools§  Google Trends§  Google AdWords§  Keyword / PlacementSuggestion Tool§  Amazon search autofill§  Google search autofill§  Compete§  Quantcast§  SEO Moz§  SEO Quake§  Google universal analytics§  Amazon search auto-fill§  Amazon comp authors§  Librarything tags§  Google search auto-fill§  Etc.§  Excel Plugins§  Various Web Us§  IFTT§  Lots of Chrome Extensions/Apps§  Others
  • 33. Some Use Cases(hypothesis: sample triangulating)34May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 34. Google TrendsMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 35
  • 35. Amazon auto-fill (not logged in, cookies cleared)May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 36
  • 36. What it may mean(hypothesis: quick burst of pain, then good stuff)37May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEASEO Quake
  • 37. Google keyword suggestion toolMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 38
  • 38. Facebook Ad InterfaceMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 39
  • 39. Facebook Insights > Power Editor > Custom/LookalikeMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 40
  • 40. Peek AnalyticsMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 41
  • 41. Simply MeasuredMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 42
  • 42. Then a bunch more till there’s “enough to go on” then..May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 43»  Map to internal data (sales, etc.)»  Ensure goals understood»  Align everything with attributes§  Meta-data through to creative»  Put all measurement in place§  Google goals, affiliate tracking, etc.»  Create light execution plan§  Four Phases: foundation, tactical growth,pruning, communicate»  Launch»  Optimize/PruneSpecifics differ but worksfor inbound/outbound,earned, paid, “rented”, etc.
  • 43. What it May Mean(hypothesis: all in the eye of the beholder…)44May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 44. The smart business of the future will correlateand compute a mix of data includingdemographics, psychographics, web analytics,social analytics and business intelligence tocreate predictive scenarios that can be deliveredin real time at the point of need.-- Paul Simbeck-HampsonMarketing ConsultantConstant triangulation – however you can do itMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 45
  • 45. These guys predicted the future!May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 46
  • 46. Some will have a harder time than othersMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 47§  C-Level misalignment§  Over-emphasis on attributiondirect ROI out of the gates§  Over emphasis on “owning therelationship”§  There is a range ofrelationships and knowingthem (and that they knowyou is pretty good)§  Over-emphasis on creativeplanning§  Overly concerned with beginningthinking with the “what” not the“who”§  Allow for marketing budgets thatcan “move”
  • 47. Skillsets, experience, orientation, or willingness keyMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 48Source: The Soda Report, 2013ChallengeData Collection 36%Data entry 9%Data storage 7%Data search 14%Data sharing 16%Data analysis 54%Data cleansing 30%Creating value/insights 49%Other 6%Q. What challenges does your company face with data management?
  • 48. Publishers as best connector of book to reader results from:»  Being marketing scientists, marketing quants, or getting some§  They are very useful.§  Understand that search and social are consumer activities/tools butbusiness ones as well. Heavy duty ones. Like coop. Remember coop?»  Obtaining true, live consumer insights§  In the wild, as they’re behaving, living, speaking up.»  Taking action based on their own knowledge + data»  Optimizing»  Lather, rinse, repeat»  Market the marketing all along the way (because they know whathappened)Expanded reach beyond core book buyersMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 49
  • 49. And if you can scale it…»  The Ever-Learning Marketer or Marketing Organization§  Puts the right book in front of the right consumer at the right time§  Optimizes marketing spend§  Improves stakeholder relations through rich communication, clearaccountability, and an abundance of creativity (there’s a lot in the data!)§  Does this in partnership with other areas and eventually improves theentire organizations capabilities, cross-pollinating learningMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 50
  • 50. Smarter, ever-improving marketing at scaleTo become a chess grandmaster alsoseems to take about ten years. (Onlythe legendary Bobby Fisher got to thatelite level in less than that amount oftime: it took him nine years.) And what’sten years? Well, it’s roughly how long ittakes to put in ten thousand hours ofhard practice. Ten thousand hours isthe magic number of greatness.” —p. 41, OutliersMay 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 51
  • 51. Thank you very much(hypothesis: probably one or two too many slides…)52May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA
  • 52. The Consumer Data that Matters NowPublishers Launch Conference, BookExpo AmericaMay 29, 2013Peter McCarthy

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