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Understanding the Pace of Change (Jonathan Nowell at Publishers Launch Frankfurt 2013)
 

Understanding the Pace of Change (Jonathan Nowell at Publishers Launch Frankfurt 2013)

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Understanding the Pace of Change -- Presented by Jonathan Nowell, President, Nielsen Book ...

Understanding the Pace of Change -- Presented by Jonathan Nowell, President, Nielsen Book

At Publishers Launch Frankfurt, Frankfurt Book Fair, 8 October 2013

In this presentation, Jonathan Nowell, head of Nielsen’s Book information businesses, looks at how the market for books has changed in the US and the UK, and he offers insights about the pace of change in other markets. He looks at the growth of both ebook and online purchasing, as well as the competition the book as a medium faces from other entertainment sectors.

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Understanding the Pace of Change (Jonathan Nowell at Publishers Launch Frankfurt 2013) Understanding the Pace of Change (Jonathan Nowell at Publishers Launch Frankfurt 2013) Presentation Transcript

  • BOOK MARKETS FORMATS AND CHANNELS NIELSEN INSIGHT INTO THE BOOK MARKET At the vanguard of the retail revolution
  • Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 2 AGENDA • Nielsen Book’s recent acquisition • Latest print and ebook trends (US and UK) • Online sales trends (US and UK) • The new/old challenge
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 3 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions US Print Book Market (excl. Walmart) US LONG TERM TRENDS CAGR 2004-2012 - 1.31% Source: Nielsen BookScan
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 4 BOOKSCAN US – TOTAL MARKET 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions US Market 0 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions Adult Fiction 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions Adult Non Fiction 0 50 100 150 200 250 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions All Juvenile CAGR 2004-2012 -1.31% CAGR 2004-2012 -2.74% CAGR 2004-2012 +2.98%CAGR 2004-2012 -1.63% Source: Nielsen BookScan
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 5 BOOKSTATS – US TRADE MARKET $M 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2010 2011 2012 Millions CAGR 2010-2012 +4.35% Source: BookStats
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 6 £0 £500 £1,000 £1,500 £2,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Millions UK TCM UK LONG TERM TRENDS Source: BookScan UK
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 7 Percentage of the UK population aged 13-79 that have bought an e-book: 2011-2013 3.5% 11.6% 19.1% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% 18.0% 20.0% 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 07-Aug-11 04-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 08-Jul-12 05-Aug-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 20-Jan-13 17-Feb-13 17-Mar-13 14-Apr-13 13-May-13 09-Jun-13 UK-DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION Market penetration in percentage terms Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: September 2013
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 8 Volume sales through the 24-week period ending 09-Jun-13 versus comparative periods in previous years 125.9m 108.7m 84.7m 6.6m 19.8m 22.0m - 20,000,000 40,000,000 60,000,000 80,000,000 100,000,000 120,000,000 140,000,000 2011 2012 2013 Printed books E-books UK SALES REPORT – ALL BOOKS YTD Year-to-date update: printed books versus e-books Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: September 2013 Value sales through the 24-week period ending 09-Jun-13 versus comparative periods in previous years £764.0m £676.1m £540.5m £23.8m £60.8m £66.2m £0 £100,000,000 £200,000,000 £300,000,000 £400,000,000 £500,000,000 £600,000,000 £700,000,000 £800,000,000 £900,000,000 2011 2012 2013 Printed books E-books
  • Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 9 Volume sales per four-week period, through the period ending 09-Jun-13 - 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 3,000,000 3,500,000 4,000,000 4,500,000 5,000,000 - 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 07-Aug-11 04-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 08-Jul-12 05-Aug-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 20-Jan-13 17-Feb-13 17-Mar-13 14-Apr-13 13-May-13 09-Jun-13 Print books E-books Trendline UK SALES REPORT – VOLUME TREND BY MONTH Volume sales of physical books and e-books since 2011 Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: September 2013
  • Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 10 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 YTD Ineternet Value Share Percentage Source: Kantar Worldpanel UK VALUE SALES – INTERNET SHARE • Value Sales Share Physical books- Annual
  • Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 11 Percentage Source: Bowker Market Research US VALUE SALES– INTERNET SHARE • Value Sales Share Physical books- Annual 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2009 2010 2011 2012 Jan - June 2013 All Internet(Value $) All Internet(Value $)
  • Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 12 LEISURE TIME ENTERTAINMENT ACTIVITIES Source: Nielsen Entertainment’s Music 360 2013 (August 2013) CSOC. Hours of leisure time spent on each of the following, when it is your primary activity - Mean Summary (Including Zero) Watching Video Content (net) Using Social Networks (net) Other Entertainment Activities (Hobbies, Personal Wellness, Exercise, Sports, Dining Out, Shopping For Fun, Going To A Park, Beach, Etc.) Reading (net) Listen To Music (Cds, Digital Tracks/Albums, Radio, Streaming, Or Other Forms Of Music) Play Video Games (On A Console, Handheld, Computer, Cell Phone Or Online) Weekly Hours of Leisure Time Spent by Activity Total US % of Total Leisure Time 45% 15% 12% 10% 8% 6%
  • THANK YOU HALLE 8.0 H.6 Jonathan Nowell Nielsen Book Jonathan.Nowell@nielsen.com www.nielsenbook.co.uk www.nielsen.com
  • Copyright©2013TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 14 KANTAR WORLDPANEL INFORMATION & METHODOLOGY General overview • Nielsen BookScan’s Total Consumer Market (TCM) covers approximately 90% of all consumer printed book sales in the UK, collecting point-of-sale transactional-level data from more than 6,500 book retail outlets. The TCM offers an extremely accurate analysis of the size and shape of the printed book market in the UK down to individual title level. • The Kantar Worldpanel, on the other hand, can be utilised to extract detail on the UK book market that is not currently available to BookScan – specifically data referring to the purchasers of books, rather than just sales of books. However, it is unable to provide sales by individual title. • Kantar Worldpanel data also offers other major attractions: its continuous panel of 15,000-plus UK-based consumers reports on where they bought books without needing the agreement of the retailers in question (unlike Nielsen BookScan), while its panel of consumers also reveals the formats of their purchases. Kantar data therefore gives, for the first time, a robust picture of the digital book market in the UK, including e-book sales from Amazon. • Although both the Nielsen BookScan and Kantar Worldpanel data-sets do not provide perfect, 100% coverage of UK book sales (not all UK book retailers are members of Nielsen BookScan’s TCM panel, while Kantar’s Consumer panel consists of 13-79 year old individuals domiciled in the UK only), both data sets trend in the same way and, as such, compliment each other to produce an incredibly accurate overview of the UK consumer book market. Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: September 2013