Spring 2014 Economic Overview
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Spring 2014 Economic Overview

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Spring 2014 Economic Overview presentation by Kenneth Hunter; webinar presentation to American Society for Public Administration; May 20, 2014

Spring 2014 Economic Overview presentation by Kenneth Hunter; webinar presentation to American Society for Public Administration; May 20, 2014

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    Spring 2014 Economic Overview Spring 2014 Economic Overview Presentation Transcript

    • Spring 2014 Economic Overview Presented By Kenneth Hunter, MPA ABFM Executive Committee Editor, Line Item May 20, 2014
    • What’s Up with the Economy?
    • Sources for Information
    • Overall Economic Performance 2014q1, $15.95T $10T $11T $12T $13T $14T $15T $16T $17T 2000q1 2000q2 2000q3 2000q4 2001q1 2001q2 2001q3 2001q4 2002q1 2002q2 2002q3 2002q4 2003q1 2003q2 2003q3 2003q4 2004q1 2004q2 2004q3 2004q4 2005q1 2005q2 2005q3 2005q4 2006q1 2006q2 2006q3 2006q4 2007q1 2007q2 2007q3 2007q4 2008q1 2008q2 2008q3 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 2010q3 2010q4 2011q1 2011q2 2011q3 2011q4 2012q1 2012q2 2012q3 2012q4 2013q1 2013q2 2013q3 2013q4 2014q1 Chained $ US GDP (Annualized Measure, 2000-Present)
    • 2013q4, 2.3% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2005q1 2005q2 2005q3 2005q4 2006q1 2006q2 2006q3 2006q4 2007q1 2007q2 2007q3 2007q4 2008q1 2008q2 2008q3 2008q4 2009q1 2009q2 2009q3 2009q4 2010q1 2010q2 2010q3 2010q4 2011q1 2011q2 2011q3 2011q4 2012q1 2012q2 2012q3 2012q4 2013q1 2013q2 2013q3 2013q4 2014q1 Annualized US Chained GDP Growth, 2005-Present 1980-2005 Average, 3.2%
    • 2.0% 2.3% 4.1% 1.5% 1.9% -0.3% -0.3% 2.5% 0.4% 2.7% 3.8% -5.5% -2.7% -5.8% 6.1% 5.9% 6.6% 1.8% 1.5% 3.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 2.3% -0.3% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% Personal consumption expenditures Goods Durable goods Nondurable goods Services Gross private domestic investment Fixed investment Nonresidential Structures Equipment Intellectual property products Residential Change in private inventories Net exports of goods and services Exports Goods Services Imports Goods Services Govt. expenditures & gross investment Federal National defense Nondefense State and local Annual Growth Rate, Elements of Chained US GDP, 2005-Present
    • 2.8% 0.7% 0.8% 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 7.7% 1.2% 0.5% -0.5% 0.8% 1.4% 2.8% 4.0% 4.5% 5.6% -0.6% 2.9% -0.9% 2.5% 3.6% 2.4% 0.6% 1.9% 2.7% 0.5% 3.3% -0.02 -0.01 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 Australia Austria Belgium Brazil Canada Chile China Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Germany Hungary Iceland India Indonesia Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Luxembourg Mexico Switzerland United Kingdom United States Euro area (17 countries) G20 1-Year Chained GDP Growth, 4th Quarter 2013
    • Costs are Going Up!
    • How’s the Market?
    • Are Markets “Stressed”?
    • Treasury Yields Ticking Upward
    • US Dollar Improving
    • Housing Prices Up, Still Affordable
    • Energy Costs Stable?
    • Labor Market Picture
    • Hiring Still Struggling
    • Structural Labor Force Decline
    • Emerging Trends
    • Emerging Trends
    • Emerging Trends
    • http://flowsmapper.geo.census.gov/flowsmapper/map.html
    • Government Financial Performance
    • States Regaining Ground
    • Local Conditions Better
    • What’s the Outlook?
    • What’s Small Business Thinking?
    • Outlook US GDP 2.8% growth for 2014 (3% predicted last fall) Jobs Average growth of 188k/month for 2014 Probability of Fed’s “Taper” 82% expect ending in 2014
    • Other Issues GASB 67/68 Education Infrastructure Utility Regulation
    • Thank You! Kenneth Hunter Kenneth.Hunter@nclgba.org www.ABFM.org