Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
2013 Economic Outlook (NCLGBA)
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

2013 Economic Outlook (NCLGBA)

503

Published on

Presentation, Economic Outlook for 2013 and Beyond, presented by Michael Brown, Wells Fargo Securities, presented at Winter 2012 NCLGBA Conference, 12/7/12

Presentation, Economic Outlook for 2013 and Beyond, presented by Michael Brown, Wells Fargo Securities, presented at Winter 2012 NCLGBA Conference, 12/7/12

0 Comments
1 Like
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
503
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
15
Comments
0
Likes
1
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Economic Outlook for 2013 and BeyondMichael A. Brown, EconomistDecember 7, 2012
  • 2. Overview Businesses Consumers Growth Inflation EmploymentWells Fargo Economics 2
  • 3. Where Are We Now? U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 10% 10% GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 2.7% 8% GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 2.5% 8% 6% 6% 4% Forecast 4% We are more than three years into the economic recovery and 2% 2% there is still a considerable 0% 0% amount of uncertainty regarding -2% -2% sovereign debt issues in Europe, the federal budget deficit and -4% -4% the U.S. housing sector -6% -6% -8% -8% -10% -10% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 3
  • 4. Capital Spending Real Business Fixed Investment Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 30% 30% 20% 20% Forecast 10% 10% 0% 0% Growth in business fixed -10% -10% investment spending will continue to add to growth -20% -20% -30% -30% -40% -40% Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q3 @ -2.2% Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 4.5% -50% -50% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 4
  • 5. Small Businesses Small Business Optimism NFIB Optimism Index 110 110 105 105 100 100 95 95 Small businesses confidence remains depressed 90 90 85 85 NFIB Optimism Index: Oct @ 93.1 80 80 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 5
  • 6. Manufacturing Sector Manufacturing Production Growth Output Growth by Volume, Not Revenue 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% Manufacturing sees continued -5% -5% expansion in output, but at a slower pace -10% -10% -15% -15% Both Series are 3-Month Moving Averages -20% 3-Month Annual Rate: Oct @ -3.0% -20% Yr/Yr Percent Change: Oct @ 3.0% -25% -25% 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Source: Federal Reserve and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 6
  • 7. Housing Market Housing Starts Millions of Units 2.4 2.4 2.1 2.1 1.8 1.8 1.5 Forecast 1.5 Housing starts have bottomed 1.2 1.2 and should begin to slowly pick up over the next few years 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 7
  • 8. Housing Market Delinquencies remain elevated, but inventory levels are coming down Delinquencies Inventory Mortgages 90+ Days Delinquent - By State Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale Percent of Mortgages Outstanding Existing Homes for Sale at End of Month - In Thousands California 3.2% 4,500 4,500 As of Q2 2012 Michigan 3.2% Ohio 3.3% Illinois 3.3% 4,000 4,000 Alabama 3.5% Tennessee 3.5% Massachusetts 3.7% 3,500 3,500 Arkansas 3.9% Rhode Island 3.9% Delaware 4.0% 3,000 3,000 Florida 4.0% Maryland 4.0% Mississippi 4.2% 2,500 2,500 Georgia 4.3% Washington 4.4% New Jersey 5.2% 2,000 2,000 Nevada 6.5% Total Inventory: Oct @ 2.1 Million United States 3.2% 1,500 1,500 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 8
  • 9. Housing Market Home Prices Year-over-Year Percentage Change 24% 24% 16% 16% 8% 8% 0% 0% Home prices have bottomed in some areas -8% -8% -16% -16% Median Sale Price: Oct @ $178,700 -24% Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Oct @ 9.1% -24% FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Aug @ 4.7% S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Aug @ 1.3% -32% -32% 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 9
  • 10. Home Mortgages Negative Equity Mortgages - By State Percent of Mortgages Outstanding Colorado 18.2 As of Q2 2012 New Jersey 18.2 Oregon 18.7 Washington 19.1 Virginia 20.1 New Hampshire 20.8 Idaho 22.5 Rhode Island 22.6 Maryland 23.2 Ohio 24.1 Negative equity in homes has Illinois 25.8 contributed to foreclosures California 29.0 Michigan 32.8 Georgia 35.8 Arizona 39.7 Florida 42.7 Nevada 58.6 US 22.3 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Source: CoreLogic and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 10
  • 11. The Consumer Consumer Confidence Index Conference Board 160 160 140 140 120 120 100 100 Consumers are still struggling to 80 80 find reasons to be confident 60 60 40 Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: Nov @ 33.6% 40 Confidence: Nov @ 73.7 12-Month Moving Average: Nov @ 67.1 20 20 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 11
  • 12. The Consumer Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% Forecast 2% 2% 0% 0% Consumer spending will remain subdued until the end of 2014 -2% -2% -4% -4% -6% PCE - CAGR: Q3 @ 1.4% -6% PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.8% -8% -8% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 12
  • 13. The Employment Situation Initial Claims for Unemployment Seasonally Adjusted, In Thousands 700 700 Year-over-Year Percent Change: Nov-24 @ -1.5% 650 Initial Claims: Nov-24 @ 393.0 Thousand 650 4-Week Moving Average: Nov-24 @ 405.3 Thousand 600 52-Week Moving Average: Nov-24 @ 376.3 Thousand 600 550 550 500 500 Initial claims data have been 450 450 signaling improvement 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 13
  • 14. The Employment Situation Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% The unemployment rate is falling, but for the wrong reason 6% 6% 4% 4% Unemployment Rate: Nov @ 7.7% 2% 2% 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05 10 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 14
  • 15. The Employment Situation Unemployment Rate by Education Level November 2012 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% The unemployment rate for college-educated workers 8% 8% remains low around 4 percent, while the 6% 6% unemployment rate for workers 4% 4% with less than a high school diploma is over 12 percent 2% 2% 0% 0% No High School High School Some College College Degree Diploma Diploma Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 15
  • 16. The Employment Situation Employment Cycles Percent Change from Cycle Peak 20% 20% 1948-1949 Cycle 1981-1982 Cycle 16% 1989-1991 Cycle 16% 2001 Cycle 2007-To-Date 12% Forecast 12% 8% 8% Employment will eventually 4% 4% regain its peak, but not quickly 0% 0% -4% -4% -8% -8% 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 16
  • 17. Where is the Job Growth? United States Employment by Industry Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average Information November 2012 Government Other Services Financial Activities Goods Producing The service sector continues to Trade, Trans. & Utilities lead job growth Educ. & Health Svcs. Leisure and Hospitality Prof. & Bus. Svcs. Total Nonfarm -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 17
  • 18. Unemployment by County Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate September 2007 Greater than 12.5% 6.0% to 8.0% 10.0% to 12.5% Less than 6.0% 8.0% to 10.0% Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 18
  • 19. Unemployment by County Large Portions of the United States Continue to Face Serious Unemployment Issues Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate September 2012 Greater than 12.5% 6.0% to 8.0% 10.0% to 12.5% Less than 6.0% 8.0% to 10.0% Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 19
  • 20. Inflation CPI vs. Core CPI Year-over-Year Percent Change 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% Inflation will likely edge slightly 1.0% 1.0% higher in the months ahead 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -2.0% CPI: Oct @ 2.2% -2.0% Core CPI: Oct @ 2.0% -3.0% -3.0% 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 20
  • 21. What is Going on in D.C.? U.S. Budget Gap CBO Baseline Scenario Projections, Percent of GDP 26% 26% 24% 24% 22% 22% Even under existing law with 20% 20% budget cuts and tax increases there is still a budget gap 18% 18% 16% 16% Outlays: 2022 @ 22.4% Revenues: 2022 @ 21.2% 14% 14% 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 Source: Congressional Budget Office and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 21
  • 22. Fiscal Policy Changes in 2013 Real Disposable Personal Income Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 12.0% 12.0% 9.0% 9.0% 6.0% 6.0% Forecast 3.0% 3.0% Under existing law, significant 0.0% 0.0% fiscal policy changes in 2013 would put downward pressure -3.0% -3.0% on disposable income -6.0% -6.0% -9.0% -9.0% -12.0% Real Disp. Personal Inc. - CAGR: Q3 @ 0.5% -12.0% Real Disp. Personal Inc. - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.6% -15.0% -15.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 22
  • 23. Eurozone Outlook Eurozone Real GDP Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change 8% 8% Compound Annual Growth: Q3 @ -0.2% Year-over-Year Percent Change: Q3 @ -0.6% Forecast 4% 4% 0% 0% Much of the Eurozone has likely slipped back into recession -4% -4% -8% -8% -12% -12% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: IHS Global Insight and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 23
  • 24. European Exports as a Percent of GDP 2011 European Exports as a Percent of GDP 2.30% 3.50% 1.77% 0.60% 1.08% 0.94% 1.38% 1.10% 1.55% 2.81% 0.95% 1.74% 0.42% 2.32% 1.38% 0.30% 1.57% 2.92% 1.76% 1.82% 3.38% 1.15% 2.59% 2.02% 6.62% 2.79% 1.95% 0.66% 3.02% 5.79% 0.16% 1.51% 1.83% 1.21% 0.94% 1.12% 2.90% 1.36% 2.24% 1.31% 0.66% 0.38% 0.91% 4.88% 0.13% 2.94% 1.80% 1.73% Highest Risk 2.84% 4.46% 1.99% High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk Lowest RiskWells Fargo Economics 24
  • 25. Headwinds to Economic Growth The Ongoing European Debt Crisis Slow Housing Market Cutbacks at All Recovery Levels of Government Headwinds to Economic Growth Uncertain Fiscal Slow Pace of Policy Outlook Job GainsWells Fargo Economics 25
  • 26. The North Carolina Economy
  • 27. North Carolina – Current Economic Conditions North Carolina Coincident Index Three-Month Percent Change 4.0% 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% Growth across the state has slowed -1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0% -3.0% North Carolina: Oct @ 0.7% -4.0% -4.0% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 27
  • 28. North Carolina – Employment Growth & Unemployment Rate Employment growth in the state has been fairly broad based, although improvement in the labor market has begun to slow. The state’s unemployment rate remains well above the national average. Employment Unemployment Rate North Carolina Employment Growth by Industry North Carolina Unemployment Rate Year-over-Year Percent Change of 3-M Moving Average Seasonally Adjusted 12% 12% Total Nonfarm Unemployment Rate: Oct @ 9.3% Trade, Trans. & Utilities 12-Month Moving Average: Oct @ 9.7% Government 10% 10% More Educ. & Health Svcs. Number of Employees Prof. & Bus. Svcs. 8% 8% Manufacturing Less Leisure and Hospitality 6% 6% Financial Activities Construction 4% 4% Other Services Information October 2012 2% 2% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 28
  • 29. North Carolina – Home Prices and Construction Home prices may have turned the corner. Multifamily building in the state’s larger cities has led the way in the state’s housing construction. Home Prices Housing Permits CoreLogic Home Price Index: NC vs. US North Carolina Housing Permits Index, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 200 200 140 140 United States: Oct @ 145.1 Single-Family: Oct @ 30,864 Single-Family, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Oct @ 28,514 180 North Carolina: Oct @ 128.8 180 120 120 Multifamily, 12-Month Moving Avg.: Oct @ 16,599 NC Single-Family Avg. (1988 to 2003): 51,023 160 160 100 100 140 140 80 80 120 120 60 60 100 100 40 40 80 80 20 20 60 60 0 0 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: CoreLogic, U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 29
  • 30. North Carolina – Personal Income Situation Personal income growth picked up in the first half of the year, however slow job growth poses a headwind to continued strength Personal Income Composition of Income Growth North Carolina Personal Income North Carolina: Wages & Salaries vs. Transfer Payments Bars = Compound Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change In Billions, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate 15% 15% $275 $275 $250 $250 12% 12% $225 $225 9% 9% $200 $200 6% 6% $175 $175 3% 3% $150 $150 0% 0% $125 $125 $100 $100 -3% -3% $75 $75 -6% -6% $50 $50 -9% North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 4.0% -9% Transfer Payments: Q2 @ $72.9 Billion $25 $25 North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 3.5% Wages and Salaries: Q2 @ $186.7 Billion -12% -12% $0 $0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 30
  • 31. North Carolina – Economic Outlook The slower pace of economic growth should continue through the second half of 2012. Leading Index Outlook North Carolina Leading Index  The headwinds to national growth will dictate that Three-Month Percent Change 8.0% 8.0% the cyclical nature of the North Carolina economy will likely continue to reflect a sub-par pace of 6.0% 6.0% economic growth. 4.0% 4.0%  Job growth in North Carolina will likely remain slow with only modest job gains occurring. 2.0% 2.0%  Employment growth will continue to be 0.0% 0.0% concentrated in business and professional services along with healthcare and education. -2.0% -2.0%  Manufacturing job gains have supported employment growth, but downside risks remain. -4.0% -4.0% North Carolina: Oct @ 2.7%  The major metro areas will continue to -6.0% -6.0% outperform the other areas of the state. 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 31
  • 32. Local Government Fiscal Outlook
  • 33. Property Tax Collections House Price Appreciation and Property Taxes Year-over-Year Percent Change, 4-Quarter Moving Average 30% 30% Purchase-Only Home Price Index: Q2 @ -0.6% 25% Property Tax Revenue: Q2 @ -8.4% 25% 20% 20% Property tax collections 15% 15% continue to feel the effects of 10% 10% home price declines. Price appreciation should help to 5% 5% support property tax collections over the next collection cycle 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 33
  • 34. Sales Tax Collections Retail Sales vs. Disposable Personal Income 3-Month Moving Average, Year-over-Year Percent Change 12% 12% 8% 8% 4% 4% Retail sales remain strong which 0% 0% should help to support modest sales tax growth. -4% -4% -8% -8% Disposable Personal Income: Oct @ 3.1% Retail Sales: Oct @ 4.7% -12% -12% 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, FHFA and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 34
  • 35. Government Spending Real State & Local Government Purchases Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 10.0% 10.0% Government Purchases-CAGR: Q3 @ 3.7% 8.0% Government Purchases-Yr/Yr: Q3 @ -0.6% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% Declining tax revenues have 2.0% Forecast 2.0% pressured funding for schools, services and other 0.0% 0.0% infrastructure projects -2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.0% -6.0% -6.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 35
  • 36. Local Budget Outlook for North Carolina Outlook for Local Budgets  Budget pressure at the state level should subside but funds to local governments will remain limited.  Federal government budget cuts, if they occur, also add downside risks to local budgets.  Home price stability across the state should help slow the pace of property tax revenue declines. What will the local budget picture look like?  Sales tax growth will remain restrained due to cautious consumers and some likely federal tax increases.  It is important to understand that property tax revenue growth will not likely return to pre-recession levels anytime soon.  The regional budget situation will vary depending on economic growth; however, the new normal is slower economic growth and thus, slower revenue growth.Wells Fargo Economics 36
  • 37. Wells Fargo Economic Outlook Expectations for the Future  A sustained sub-par pace of economic growth  More of the same, the composition of growth will be different  Business spending will contribute less to growth  Investment in equipment & software will downshift What should we look for in the U.S. economy in the next few  Consumer spending will remain modest quarters?  Deleveraging and rebuilding of wealth will continue  The housing market will continue to improve  Some regions will recover faster than others  The employment picture will slowly continue to improve  Structural issues remainWells Fargo Economics 37
  • 38. Outlook Summary Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook Actual Forecast 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Real Gross Domestic Product 1 2.4 1.8 2.2 1.3 2.2 Personal Consumption 1.8 2.5 1.8 1.3 1.3 Business Fixed Investment 0.7 8.6 7.0 0.1 3.7 Inventory Change 50.9 31.0 57.3 28.3 38.6 Government Purchases 0.6 -3.1 -1.3 0.0 -0.6 Residential Construction -3.7 -1.4 12.0 13.8 15.7 Net Exports -419.7 -408.0 -406.6 -357.2 -299.8 Consumer Price Index2 1.6 3.1 2.2 2.5 2.2 Corporate Profits Before Taxes 2 26.8 7.3 7.7 5.5 7.0 10-Year Treasury Note 3.22 2.78 1.81 1.81 2.15 Fo recast as o f: No vember 30, 2012 1 C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter 2 Year-over-Year Percentage C hange Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLCWells Fargo Economics 38
  • 39. Appendix
  • 40. Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary Recent Special Commentary Date Title Authors November-19 The Economic Impact of the Fiscal Cliff: An Update Silvia, Brown & Swankoski November-16 Californias Economic Recovery Rolled On In October Vitner November-13 Income Tax Analysis: Who Pays? Silvia & Brown November-09 Global Chartbook: November 2012 Bryson, Aleman & Quinlan November-07 The Fiscal Cliff Debate In A Post-Election World Silvia & Brown November-01 North Carolina Economic Outlook Vitner, Brown & Watt October-29 Housing Data Wrap-Up: October 2012 Vitner & Khan October-24 2012 Holiday Sales Outlook Aleman, Iqubal & Brown October-18 U.S. Fiscal Primer III: Federal Revenues Silvia, Bryson & Brown October-18 Retirement in America: Extending the Finish Line Bryson, Iqbal & Watt October-12 The Great Unemplyoment Rate Debate Silvia, Watt & Swankoski To view any of our past research October-08 October-02 The Unemployment Rate: Seasonality and Sampling Housing Chartbook: September 2012 Silvia, Iqbal & Watt Vitner, Khan & Silverman please visit: September-25 September-17 Local Budgets Under Pressure: A Fiscal Outlook Global Chartbook: September 2012 Silvia & Brown Bryson, Aleman & Quinlan http://www.wellsfargo.com/ September-10 September-06 U.S. Fiscal Primer II: Federal Government Spending Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: Quarter 2 Silvia, Bryson & Brown Vitner & Khan September-05 Brazilian Economy Slows Down; Better Times Ahead Aleman economics August-22 August-15 Mexico: Thanks to Auto Demand Californias Economy: Gaining Momentum Aleman Vitner & Watt August-14 Real GDP in Eurozone Slumped in Q2 Bryson August-09 Rocky Mountain Summit: July 2012 Silvia August-06 Orders and Production: No Time for Complacency Silvia, Quinlan & Watt August-01 U.S. Fiscal Primer I: The Deficit and Debt Silvia, Bryson & Brown July-19 U.S. States Grapple with Europes Woes Vitner & Brown To join any of our research July-13 July-11 The Lowdown on Consumer Spending Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals IX Vitner & Quinlan Silvia & Watt distribution lists please visit: July-10 July-09 Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VIII Employment: Beyond the Sound Bites—Reading the Signals VII Silvia & Watt Silvia & Watt http://www.wellsfargo.com/ July-05 Housing Data Wrap-Up: June 2012 Vitner & Khan July-02 Do Too Many Dollars Make Us an Inflation Nation? Bullard & Quinlan June-29 2012 State Budget Outlook Silvia & Brown economicsemail June-22 June-20 Student Loans: The Best of Intentions FOMC: Keep On Twisting Until Europes Fever Breaks Silvia, Seydl & Watt Vitner June-20 The Fiscal Cliff: Likelihood and Economic Impact Silvia, Brown & Watt June-20 Credit Quality Monitor: June 2012 Anderson & Kashmarkek June-19 The Fed: Same Goal, Different Method Silvia & Khan June-15 Economic Growth Appears to Be Lost in a Fog of Uncertainty Vitner June-07 What Happens if Span or Italy Leaves EMU? Bryson, Quinlan & Swankoski June-07 Housing Chartbook: May 2012 Vitner, Khan & Seydl May-29 Implications of a Euro Exit to Greece Bryson, Quinlan & Swankoski May-24 Puerto Rico: Failure of the State Aleman May-22 Commercial Real Estate Snapshot: South Carolina Vitner & Watt May-16 Expected Inflation Continues to Fall, Challenging the FOMC Bullard & Seydl May-16 Work or Retirement? The Employment Outlook for Seniors Bryson & Watt May-15 The Not So Great Migration Silvia, Brown & Seydl May-07 North Carolina: A Better Year Ahead? Silvia, Brown & WattWells Fargo Economics 40
  • 41. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group Global Head of Research and Economics Economists Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com …… Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………………………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com Global Head of Research & Economics Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………………………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com Chief Economist Michael A. Brown, Economist ………………… michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com John Silvia … ...................... … . john.silvia@wellsfargo.com Economic Analysts Sarah Watt, Economic Analyst …………………………… .sarah.watt@wellsfargo.com Senior Economists Kaylyn Swankoski, Economic Analyst kaylyn.swankoski@wellsfargo.com Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com . Jay Bryson, Global Economist …………………....……….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com Sara Silverman, Economic Analyst sara.silverman@wellsfargo.com Eugenio Aleman, Senior Economist …………….eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com Administrative Assistants Sam Bullard, Senior Economist ………………………….sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant. peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com Anika Khan, Senior Economist .… . anika.khan@wellsfargo.com Cyndi Flowe, Administrative Assistant cyndi.h.flowe@wellsfargo.com Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A, Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, and Wells Fargo Securities International Limited. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FSA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general informational purposes only.Client/Prospect Name 41

×