2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)
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2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo)

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"Economic Outlook for 2014 and Beyond" presented by Michael Brown, Economist with Wells Fargo Securities, on December 13, 2013, at the Winter 2013 NCLGBA Conference, Asheville, NC.

"Economic Outlook for 2014 and Beyond" presented by Michael Brown, Economist with Wells Fargo Securities, on December 13, 2013, at the Winter 2013 NCLGBA Conference, Asheville, NC.

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2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo) 2014 Economic Outlook (Michael Brown, Wells Fargo) Presentation Transcript

  • Economic Outlook for 2014 and Beyond Michael A. Brown, Economist December 13, 2013
  • Overview Businesses Consumers 2014 Growth Employment Wells Fargo Economics 2 Fiscal Policy
  • Where Are We Now? U.S. Real GDP Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 10% 10% GDP - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.6% 8% GDP - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.8% 6% 6% Forecast 4% There will be a sustained recovery in 2014, but the pace of growth will still be below the historical average of 3.1 percent (1987-2007) 8% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% -4% -6% -6% -8% -8% -10% 2000 -10% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 3 2012 2014
  • Capital Spending Real Business Fixed Investment Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 30% 30% 20% 20% Forecast 10% Growth in business fixed investment spending will remain modest in the second half of the year 0% 10% 0% -10% -10% -20% -20% -30% -30% Non-Res Fixed Invest - CAGR: Q3 @ 3.5% Non-Res Fixed Invest - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 3.2% -40% 2000 -40% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 4 2012 2014
  • Small Businesses Wells Fargo Small Business Survey & NFIB Overall Situation, NFIB Small Business Optimism 1986=100 120 100 110 80 105 60 100 40 95 20 90 0 85 -20 The small business sector is improving but a full recovery in small business optimism is still distant 115 80 -40 Overall Situation: Q3 2013 @ 25.0 (Left Axis) 75 Small Business Optimism: Q3 2013 @ 94.0 (Right Axis) -60 2004 70 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: National Federation of Independent Businesses, Gallup, Wells Fargo Bank and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 5
  • U.S. Housing Market Single & Multifamily Housing Starts SAAR, In Thousands, 3-Month Moving Average 2,000 1,800 540 1,600 480 1,400 420 1,200 360 1,000 300 800 240 600 180 400 Multifamily construction has picked up while construction of single-family homes has been slower to rebound 600 120 Single-family Housing Starts: Aug @ 604K (Left Axis) 200 60 Multifamily Housing Starts: Aug @ 266K (Right Axis) 0 0 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 6 05 07 09 11 13
  • Housing Market Delinquencies remain elevated and inventory levels have come down Delinquencies Inventory Mortgages 90+ Days Delinquent - By State Inventory of Existing Homes for Sale Percent of Mortgages Outstanding Indiana 2.8% Ohio 2.8% Illinois Existing Homes for Sale at End of Month - In Thousands 2.8% Pennsylvania 4,500 As of Q2 2013 2.9% Arkansas 4,500 Total Inventory: Oct @ 2.1 Million 4,000 4,000 3,500 3,500 3,000 3,000 2,500 2,500 2,000 2,000 3.0% Florida 3.1% New York 3.2% Tennessee 3.2% Alabama 3.4% Massachusetts 3.4% Georgia 3.4% Delaware 3.4% Rhode Island 3.7% Maryland 3.9% Mississippi 4.2% Nevada 4.3% New Jersey 4.3% United States 2.6% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 1,500 7% Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Association of Realtors and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 1,500 99 7 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
  • Housing Market Home Prices Year-over-Year Percentage Change 24% 24% 16% 16% 8% 0% National home price appreciation remains robust 8% 0% -8% -8% -16% -16% Median Sale Price: Oct @ $199,500 Median Sales Price 3-M Mov. Avg.: Oct @ 12.2% FHFA (OFHEO) Purchase Only Index: Sep @ 8.5% S&P Case-Shiller Composite 10: Sep @ 13.3% -24% -24% -32% -32% 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Association of Realtors, S&P Corp. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 8
  • Home Mortgages Negative Equity by State Percent of Mortgages Outstanding California Maryland 17% Rhode Island Illinois Georgia 23% Q2 2013 36% 21% Michigan 33% 22% Arizona 40% 25% Florida 59% 36% United States 15% 0% 10% 22% 20% Source: CoreLogic, Inc. and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC 9 43% 31% Nevada Wells Fargo Economics Q2 2012 24% 19% 23% 19% 26% 20% Ohio Price appreciation over the last year has helped to reduce negative equity 29% 15% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
  • The Consumer Consumer Confidence Index Conference Board 160 140 140 120 120 100 Consumer confidence has pulled back recently 160 100 80 80 60 60 40 40 Confidence Yr/Yr % Chg: Nov @ -1.7% Confidence: Nov @ 70.4 12-Month Moving Average: Nov @ 72.2 20 20 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 Source: The Conference Board and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 10 03 05 07 09 11 13
  • The Consumer Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% Forecast 4% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% Consumer spending will slowly begin to pick up in 2014 2% -4% -6% -8% 2000 -8% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics -6% PCE - CAGR: Q3 @ 1.4% PCE - Yr/Yr Percent Change: Q3 @ 1.8% 11 2012 2014
  • The Employment Situation Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6% 6% 4% The unemployment rate remains elevated due to structural factors 8% 4% Unemployment Rate: Nov @ 7.0% 2% 2% 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 12 95 00 05 10
  • The Employment Situation Unemployment Rate by Education Level November 2013 14% 14% 12% 10% The unemployment rate for college-educated workers remains around 4 percent, while the unemployment rate for workers with less than a high school diploma is over 10 percent 12% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% No High School Diploma High School Diploma Some College Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 13 College Degree
  • Employment Rate Employment-Population Ratio 16 Years and Over, Seasonally Adjusted 65 64 64 63 63 62 62 61 61 60 60 59 59 58 The employment rate shows how dramatically the working population has shrunk following the recession 65 58 Employment-Population Ratio: Nov @ 58.6 57 57 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 14 04 06 08 10 12
  • Where is the Job Growth? United States Employment by Industry Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average Government November 2013 Information Other Services Goods Producing Financial Activities The service sector continues to lead job growth Educ. & Health Svcs. Trade, Trans. & Utilities Leisure and Hospitality Prof. & Bus. Svcs. Total Nonfarm -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 15 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0%
  • Unemployment by County Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate September 2007 Greater than 12.5% 6.0% to 8.0% 10.0% to 12.5% Less than 6.0% 8.0% to 10.0% Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 16
  • Unemployment by County Large Portions of the United States Continue to Face Serious Unemployment Issues Unemployment Rate Unemployment Rate October 2013 Greater than 12.5% 6.0% to 8.0% 10.0% to 12.5% Less than 6.0% 8.0% to 10.0% Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 17
  • Inflation PCE Market Deflators Year-over-Year Percent Change 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Inflation should not pose a barrier to easier Federal Reserve policy 5% 0% "Core" PCE Market Deflator: Oct @ 1.0% PCE Market Deflator: Oct @ 0.6% -1% -1% 98 00 02 04 06 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 18 08 10 12
  • Wells Fargo Fiscal Policy Outlook Fiscal Policy Summary  Short-term Shutdown Showdown Deal     Political uncertainty will continue in the months ahead Immediately re-opened government operations The debt ceiling was suspended until February 7 th Provides back pay to furloughed federal workers House and Senate agree to work out FY14 Budget in Committee  What is next?  December 13th – Joint Budget Committee Reports to Congress  January 15th – Continuing Resolution Expires  February 7th – Debt Ceiling Reached Wells Fargo Economics 19
  • Headwinds to Economic Growth Slow Global Growth Environment Smaller Consumer Base Government Sector Restructuring Headwinds to Economic Growth Structural Nature of Unemployment Uncertain Fiscal Policy Outlook Wells Fargo Economics 20
  • Revenue Outlook
  • State Income Tax Revenues U.S. Average State Personal Income Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% Personal income growth picked up in the second quarter after a sharp decline 4% -3% U.S. Personal Income: Q2 @ 1.0% -4% -4% 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 22
  • State Income Tax Revenues U.S. State Income Tax Receipts Year-over-Year Percent Change 25% 25% 20% 20% 15% 15% 10% 10% 5% 0% Income tax revenues remained stable in the second quarter 5% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -20% -25% -30% 1995 -25% U.S. Income Tax: Q2 @ 19.4% -30% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 23 2009 2011 2013
  • State Income Tax Revenues Nominal Personal Income Year-over-Year Percent Change 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% Forecast 6% 4% 2% 2% 0% 0% -2% -2% -4% Personal income growth will moderate in 2014, keeping income tax revenues positive but more modest 4% -4% -6% -8% 2000 -6% Personal Income-Yr/Yr: Q3 @ 3.9% -8% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 24 2012 2014
  • State Sales Tax Revenues U.S. State Sales Tax Receipts Year-over-Year Percent Change 16% 16% 12% 12% 8% 4% 4% 0% 0% -4% -4% -8% State sales tax collections growth has averaged just 3.8 percent since revenues turned positive following the recession 8% -8% U.S. Sales Tax: Q2 @ 4.8% -12% 1995 -12% 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 25 2007 2009 2011 2013
  • State Sales Tax Revenues Retail Sales Bars = CAGR Line = Yr/Yr Percent Change 15% 15% 10% 10% Forecast 5% 0% While consumer spending should continue to pick up over the next year, sales tax collections will remain modest 5% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% -15% -15% -20% -20% -25% Retail Sales-CAGR: Q3 @ 4.6% -25% Retail Sales-Yr/Yr: Q3 @ 4.5% -30% 2000 -30% 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 26 2012 2014
  • Property Tax Revenues House Price Appreciation and Property Taxes Year-over-Year Percent Change, 4-Quarter Moving Average 30% 30% Purchase-Only Home Price Index: Q3 @ 7.1% Property Tax Revenue: Q2 @ 1.6% 25% 25% 20% 15% Home price appreciation has helped to improve property tax collections 20% 15% 10% 10% 5% 5% 0% 0% -5% -5% -10% -10% 96 98 00 02 04 06 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 27 08 10 12
  • The North Carolina Economy
  • North Carolina – Current Economic Conditions North Carolina Coincident Index Three-Month Percent Change 4.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% -1.0% -1.0% -2.0% -2.0% -3.0% Economic activity in North Carolina has picked up recently 4.0% -3.0% North Carolina: Oct @ 1.6% -4.0% -4.0% 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 29
  • North Carolina– Employment Growth & Unemployment Rate Employment growth is picking up in the majority of sectors. The unemployment rate has come down as individuals have left the labor force. Employment Unemployment Rate North Carolina Employment Growth By Industry North Carolina Unemployment Rate Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-MMA Seasonally Adjusted 12% October 2013 Total Nonfarm 12% Unemployment Rate: Oct @ 8.0% 12-Month Moving Average: Oct @ 8.9% Trade, Trans. & Utilities Government 10% More 10% Educ. & Health Services Prof. & Bus. Svcs. Number of Employees 8% 8% Less 6% 6% 4% 4% Manufacturing Leisure and Hospitality Financial Activities Construction Other Services Information -4% 2% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 2% 90 30 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
  • North Carolina – Personal Income Situation Income growth has returned, however the bulk of the gains in personal income have come from transfer payments. Personal Income Composition of Income Growth North Carolina Personal Income Bars = Compound Annual Rate North Carolina: Wages & Salaries vs. Transfer Payments In Billions, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Line = Yr/Yr % Change 15% 15% 12% $275 12% $275 $250 $250 $225 $225 $200 $200 $175 $175 9% 9% 6% 6% 3% 3% $150 $150 0% 0% $125 $125 -3% -3% $100 $100 -6% -6% $75 -9% North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 3.0% $50 -9% -12% $25 Wages and Salaries: Q2 @ $193.1 Billion $0 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 $0 00 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics $50 Transfer Payments: Q2 @ $74.4 Billion $25 North Carolina Personal Income: Q2 @ 2.0% -12% $75 31 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
  • North Carolina– Home Prices and Construction North Carolina home prices are rising once again and homebuilding has increased modestly. Home Prices Housing Permits North Carolina Housing Permits CoreLogic HPI: NC vs. U.S. Thousands of Permits, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate Index, 2000=100, Not Seasonally Adjusted 200 100 180 180 160 160 140 120 100 100 100 Single-Family Average (1998-2003): 62,968 140 120 120 Single-Family: Oct @ 33,132 Single-Family, 12-MMA: Oct @ 34,547 Multifamily, 12-MMA: Oct @ 14,990 d n a s u o h T 200 120 220 United States: Oct @ 165.0 North Carolina: Oct @ 133.7 d n a s u o h T 220 60 40 40 20 20 80 60 80 60 80 80 60 40 40 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 0 12 Source: CoreLogic, Inc., U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 0 90 32 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
  • North Carolina – Unemployment Rate Composition Unemployment Rate by County North Carolina Unemployment Rate October 2013 Greater than 10.5% 7.5% to 8.5% 9.5% to 10.5% Less than 7.5% 8.5% to 9.5% Source: US Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Client/Prospect Name
  • North Carolina Metro Areas: Employment North Carolina Unemployment Rate Seasonally Adjusted 13% 13% Charlotte: Oct @ 8.9% Greensboro: Oct @ 9.4% Fayetteville: Oct @ 9.9% Asheville: Oct @ 7.0% Raleigh : Oct @ 7.2% Durham: Oct @ 6.8% 11% 9% 11% 9% 7% 7% 5% 5% 3% The unemployment rate turned down in most major metro areas 3% 1% 1% 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 34 04 06 08 10 12
  • North Carolina Metro Areas: Employment North Carolina Employment Growth: October 2013 Year-over-Year Percent Change, 3-Month Moving Average 1.5% Recovering Expanding Greensboro-High Point 1.0% Charlotte Raleigh-Cary Winston-Salem 0.5% Wilmington 0.0% Most of the major metro areas continue to see solid job growth Hickory-Lenoir Asheville 3-M C c P a r e A g i v M h t n o -0.5% Durham-Chapel Hill Fayetteville -1.0% Contracting -1.5% -1.0% Decelerating 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% Year-over-Year Percent Change Source: U.S. Department of Labor and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 35 3.0%
  • North Carolina: Population North Carolina Population Growth by MSA Percent Growth 2000-2012 Raleigh Charlotte Durham The Raleigh and Charlotte regions typically see the biggest population gains Asheville Greensboro Fayetteville 0% 10% 20% Source: U.S. Department of Commerce and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 36 30% 40% 50%
  • North Carolina – Economic Outlook The modest pace of economic growth should resume in the second half of the year. Job growth will likely remain modest outside the major metro areas. Leading Index Outlook  The highly cyclical nature of the North Carolina North Carolina Leading Index Three-Month Percent Change 8.0% 8.0% 6.0% 6.0% 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.0% -4.0% -4.0% North Carolina: Oct @ 3.4% -6.0% -6.0% 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 economy results in growth closely tracking U.S. economic growth.  Growth will likely pick-up in the months ahead with modest job gains continuing.  The state unemployment rate remains above the national average.  Job growth will be driven by the professional & business services sector along with the leisure and hospitality sector.  Employment growth in the state will be challenging over the next several years due to the skills mismatch in the labor force. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 37
  • Wells Fargo Economic Outlook Expectations for the Future  A sustained modest pace of economic growth  More of the same  Business spending will remain modest  Investment in equipment & software will normalize What should we look for in the U.S. economy in the next few quarters?  Consumer spending will slowly pick up  Deleveraging and rebuilding of wealth continues  The housing market continues to gradually improve  Some regions will recover faster than others  The employment picture will slowly continue to improve  Structural issues remain Wells Fargo Economics 38
  • Outlook Summary Wells Fargo U.S. Economic Outlook Actual Forecast 2010 Real Gross Domestic Product Personal Consumption Business Fixed Investment Inventory Change Government Purchases Residential Construction Net Exports 2 Consumer Price Index Corporate Profits Before Taxes 10-Year Treasury Note 2 2012 2013 2014 2015 2.5 2.0 2.5 58.2 0.1 -2.5 -462.6 1.6 1 2011 1.8 2.5 7.6 33.6 -3.2 0.5 -445.9 3.1 2.8 2.2 7.3 57.6 -1.0 12.9 -430.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.5 77.6 -2.0 13.6 -419.9 1.5 2.4 2.0 4.4 62.3 -0.5 12.1 -375.2 1.7 3.0 2.4 5.8 54.5 0.0 15.1 -348.7 2.2 25.0 7.9 7.0 4.3 5.2 5.9 3.22 2.78 1.80 2.47 3.10 3.35 Fo recast as o f: December 1 , 201 1 3 1 2 C ompound Annual Growth Rate Quarter-over-Quarter Year-over-Year Percentage C hange Source: Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Wells Fargo Economics 39
  • Appendix
  • Wells Fargo Economics Group Publications A Sampling of Our Recent Special, Regional & Industry Commentary Recent Special Commentary Date Title Authors November-18 November-14 November-12 November-07 November-04 November-01 November-01 To view any of our past research please visit: http://www.wellsfargo.com/ economics To join any of our research distribution lists please visit: http://www.wellsfargo.com/ economicsemail 2013 Holiday Sales Outlook Inflation Chartbook: November 2013 Commercial Real Estate Chartbook: 2013 Apartment Fundamentals Revisited Arizona Economic Outlook: November 2013 Results, Not Rhetoric: Rebuilding the Financial Face of Manufacturing Housing Data Wrap-Up: October 2013 Aleman, Iqbal & Brown Bullard, House & Griffiths Vitner, Khan & Silverman Khan Vitner & Wolf Silvia & Miller Vitner, Khan & Silverman October-31 October-30 October-28 October-28 October-28 October-25 October-25 October-24 October-21 October-21 October-18 October-17 October-16 October-16 October-16 October-14 October-09 October-07 October-03 October-03 October-02 October-02 October-02 October-02 October-01 October-01 October-01 Bank Lending: Uneven Improvement Developing Economies and Crisis Vulnerability Are Developing Economies Heading for a Crash? Measuring the State of the U.S. Labor Market: A New Index Are Developing Economies Heading for a Crash? Labor Market Dynamics: More Job Openings and Quits Pennsylvania Economic Outlook: October 2013 The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part III Can America Achieve Stronger Export Growth? Shutdown Showdown Finale: A Short-Term Bridge to the Next Crisis Nashville's Economy Strikes the Right Chord Portland's Economy Shows Consistent Strength Short-Run Disruption, Long-Run Imbalance Is There Pent-Up Demand for Consumer Durables? Household Debt Service Ratio: New Lows, Less Stress Singapore GDP Stronger Than Expected in Q3 The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part II The "Unsustainable" Path of Federal Fiscal Policy: Part I Asheville's Recovery Remains Solidly on Track How Does North Carolina Stack Up Today? Abenomics Getting Warm Reception from Japanese Business Naples Four Years After the Recession Housing Chartbook: September 2013 Will British Consumers Continue to Spend? Bank Lending: A Perspective on Credit Corporate Credit: Bond Finance and Power in Reserve Shutdown Showdown: Deficit Remains the Issue Silvia, Watt & Zachary Bryson & Miller Bryson & Miller Silvia, Iqbal & Zachary Bryson & Miller Silvia & Zachary Vitner & Wolf Silvia, Brown & Zachary Bryson, Quinlan & Griffiths Silvia & Brown Vitner & Wolf Vitner & Silverman Silvia & Brown Bryson, Aleman & Brown Silvia & Miller Bryson Silvia, Brown & Zachary Silvia & Brown Vitner & Wolf Silvia, Brown & Griffiths Quinlan Vitner & Wolf Vitner, Khan & Silverman Bryson & Miller Silvia & Watt Silvia & Zachary Silvia & Brown Mexico: Tidbits of Better Times Ahead? Strong Growth in Argentina in Q2 2013 Sequestering Economic Growth? Why Has U.S. Labor Productivity Growth Slowed? South Carolina 2013 Economic Outlook Interest Rate Update: Post the Big Non-Taper Consumer Credit: Critical Differences in Consumer Behavior Florida Consumer Sentiment Falls Back in September Does China Have a Debt Problem? California Adds 29,100 Jobs, but Unemployment Rises Again Aleman Aleman Silvia & Brown Bryson & Watt Vitner & Silverman Silvia & Zachary Silvia & Miller Vitner & Silverman Bryson Vitner & Silverman September-27 September-27 September-27 September-26 September-25 September-25 September-25 September-24 September-23 September-20 Wells Fargo Economics 41
  • Wells Fargo Securities, LLC Economics Group Global Head of Research and Economics Economists Azhar Iqbal, Econometrician………………… ……………azhar.iqbal@wellsfargo.com Diane Schumaker-Krieg ………………… ….diane.schumaker@wellsfargo.com Global Head of Research & Economics …… Tim Quinlan, Economist …………………… ……………..tim.quinlan@wellsfargo.com Michael A. Brown, Economist ……………… … Chief Economist John E. Silvia … Sarah Watt House, Economist ...................... … john.silvia@wellsfargo.com . Michael T. Wolf, Economist . Sara Silverman, Economic Analyst Mackenzie Miller, Economic Analyst sam.bullard@wellsfargo.com Blaire Zachary, Economic Analyst Nick Bennenbroek, Currency Strategist ……nicholas.bennenbroek@wellsfargo.com . michael.t.wolf@wellsfargo.com zachary.griffiths@wellsfargo.com sara.silverman@wellsfargo.com mackenzie.miller@wellsfargo.com blaire.a.zachary@wellsfargo.com Administrative Assistants Eugenio J. Alemán, Senior Economist… ………….eugenio.j.aleman@wellsfargo.com Anika R. Khan, Senior Economist … ………………… … Zachary Griffiths, Economic Analyst mark.vitner@wellsfargo.com Jay H. Bryson, Global Economist …………………....…… ….jay.bryson@wellsfargo.com Sam Bullard, Senior Economist …………… …………sarah.house@wellsfargo.com Economic Analysts Senior Economists Mark Vitner, Senior Economist……………....………. . michael.a.brown@wellsfargo.com Peg Gavin, Executive Assistant. . anika.khan@wellsfargo.com Cyndi Burris, Senior Administrative Assistant peg.gavin@wellsfargo.com cyndi.burris@wellsfargo.com Wells Fargo Securities Economics Group publications are produced by Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, a U.S broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, and the Securities Investor Protection Corp. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC, distributes these publications directly and through subsidiaries including, but not limited to, Wells Fargo & Company, Wells Fargo Bank N.A., Wells Fargo Advisors, LLC, Wells Fargo Securities International Limited, Wells Fargo Securities Asia Limited and Wells Fargo Securities (Japan) Co. Limited. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. (“WFS”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a futures commission merchant and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. Wells Fargo Bank, N.A. (“WFBNA”) is registered with the Commodities Futures Trading Commission as a swap dealer and is a member in good standing of the National Futures Association. WFS and WFBNA are generally engaged in the trading of futures and derivative products, any of which may be discussed within this publication. The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC does not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wells Fargo Securities, LLC assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or as personalized investment advice. Wells Fargo Securities, LLC is a separate legal entity and distinct from affiliated banks and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo & Company © 2013 Wells Fargo Securities, LLC. SECURITIES: NOT FDIC-INSURED/NOT BANK-GUARANTEED/MAY LOSE VALUE Important Information for Non-U.S. Recipients For recipients in the EEA, this report is distributed by Wells Fargo Securities International Limited (“WFSIL”). WFSIL is a U.K. incorporated investment firm authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content of this report has been approved by WFSIL a regulated person under the Act. WFSIL does not deal with retail clients as defined in the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive 2007. The FCA rules made under the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 for the protection of retail clients will therefore not apply, not will the Financial Services Compensation Scheme be available. This report is not intended for, and should not be relied upon by, retail clients. This document and any other materials accompanying this document (collectively, the “Materials”) are provided for general informational purposes only. Client/Prospect Name 42