Patricio Mansilla - PPP in Mongolia

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Patricio Mansilla - PPP in Mongolia

  1. 1. 1 Mongolia’s gateway logistics park in Zamyn Uud: Potential PPP? Chemonics International Ulan Bator – Mongolia July 2010
  2. 2. 2 Agenda 1. PPP Project for Zamyn Uud logistics park 2. Potential center of revenues for PPP 3. Current demand 4. Revenue estimation for PPP
  3. 3. 3 1. PPP project for Zamyn Uud logistics park
  4. 4. 4 PRC Weigh Scale Manual inspection Scanner inspection Document check Rail-Rail transfer Discharge from PRCRR Load to UBTZ Road-Rail transfer Overland by road Overland by rail Mixed Loads Homogenous Loads Preliminary GOM clearances ENTER BY RAIL Final GOM clearance s Final GOM clearances UB Zamyn Uud flow of cargo ENTER BY ROAD
  5. 5. 5
  6. 6. 6 Survey in Zamyn Uud April 16th to 19th 2008 Problem % of Complains Waiting time for Permission Letter in Erlian 68% Stay overnight for closure of Mongolian border 94% Waiting time for weight in scale zone 64% Road to scanner in bad condition 53% Traffic jam and chaos in waiting area for inspection 55% Traffic jam and chaos in waiting area for customs for lack of space 75% Lack of road or in bad condition 79% Transshipment to the wagon is slow and number of wagons is insufficient 83%
  7. 7. 7 End of transportation Provision of wagons for transshipment Road to rail transshipment Areas covered in Questionnaire 4 Interview point 4 Documentation for specialized Specialized inspection Customs documentation Physical inspection of mixed goods Documentation for specialized Specialized inspection Customs documentation Scanner inspection homogeneous cargo Areas covered in Questionnaire 3 Goods loaded in Erlian Chinese border Mongolian border Scale Beginning of transportation Interview point 1 Areas covered in Questionnaire 2
  8. 8. 8 Value of import cargo processed in Zamyn Uud by truck Year Value Million US$ 2004 54.2 2005 72.3 2006 96.0 2007 208.0 2008 368.2 Total Accumulated 2004- 2008 798.7
  9. 9. 9 Value of import cargo Zamyn Uud by truck monthly and weekly Period Value by month Million $ Value by week Million $ Average 2008 30,686,883.2 7,671,720.8 Average 9 months 2008 (excluding nov-dec-jan) 36,480,003.2 9,120,000.8 Average May-Jun-July 44,512,630.6 11,128,157.6
  10. 10. 10 Cost of lack of infrastructure Zamyn Uud weekly ($ dollars) Period 20% of opportunity cost 5% of indirect costs Total weekly opportunity cost Average 2008 1,534,344.1 383,586 1,917,930.2 Average 9 months 2008 (excluding Nov- Dec-Jan) 1,824,000.1 456,000 2,280,000.2 Average May-Jun- July 2,225,631.5 556,407 2,782,039.4
  11. 11. 11 2. Potential center of revenues for PPP
  12. 12. 12 Logistic Park Development Co. Parking Real Estate Development Commercial Services Road to Rail Imports Rail to Road Exports Rail to Rail Imports Revenues from the Business or fee Revenues from the Business or fee Tariff for rent m2 and % of business Fee Fee Fee Warehouse Gas Station Fee Fee Flow of revenues
  13. 13. 13 3. Current demand
  14. 14. 14 Current demand
  15. 15. 15 Annual import tons and annual growth rate in Zamyn Uud Year Tons by truck Tons by railway Total Growth rate 2004 311,627 212,664 524,292 - 2005 362,563 222,957 585,520 11.7% 2006 416,260 228,300 644,561 10.1% 2007 698,593 293,589 992,182 53.9% 2008 1,189,794 350,744 1,540,539 55.3%
  16. 16. 16 Total cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by road and railway 2004-2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Average January 23,866.153 29,277.436 30,225.754 31,966.569 87,333.419 40,533.866 February 19,207.254 22,397.425 32,065.066 29,440.064 81,379.371 36,897.836 March 36,015.163 43,184.018 43,636.150 48,330.923 165,170.691 67,267.389 April 53,873.209 62,905.096 57,763.667 78,421.236 187,587.026 88,110.047 May 57,468.028 57,914.687 62,581.153 86,671.477 189,039.761 90,735.021 June 67,266.459 62,716.385 74,825.930 104,834.253 160,690.731 94,066.751 July 47,856.327 67,932.232 69,396.434 152,588.527 169,283.233 101,411.351 August 49,986.145 64,283.940 75,185.164 130,501.745 117,651.584 87,521.716 September 55,643.238 59,210.501 67,203.198 96,206.249 129,331.700 81,518.977 October 46,706.214 46,979.934 59,773.490 97,003.042 125,471.351 75,186.806 November 33,835.384 39,840.188 39,919.603 66,490.841 68,038.323 49,624.868 December 32,568.693 28,879.147 31,986.077 69,727.999 59,561.815 44,544.746 Total 524,292.268 585,520.989 644,561.685 992,182.925 1,540,539.007 Average 43,691.022 48,793.416 53,713.474 82,681.910 128,378.251
  17. 17. 17 Months 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  18. 18. 18 Monthly comparison total 2004-2008
  19. 19. 19 3.1 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by road/truck Road-Rail
  20. 20. 20 Annual import tons and annual growth rate cargo by truck Year Tons Growth rate 2004 311,627 2005 362,563 16% 2006 416,260 14.8% 2007 698,593 67.8% 2008 1,189,794 70%
  21. 21. 21 Months 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
  22. 22. 22 Monthly comparison road 2004-2008
  23. 23. 23 3.2 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by railway Rail to Rail
  24. 24. 24 Annual imports tons and annual growth rate cargo by railway Year Tons Growth rate 2004 212,664 - 2005 222,957 4.8% 2006 228,300 2.3% 2007 293,589 28.5% 2008 350,744 19.5%
  25. 25. 25 3.3 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud Rail to Road Exports
  26. 26. 26 Annual transshipment export cargo (tons) Year Tons by truck Tons by railway Total 2004 21.195 707.259 728.454 2005 19.984 1.024.130 1.044.114 2006 23.903 1.309.758 1.333.661 2007 44.631 1.167.951 1.212.583 2008 53.663 1.977.017 2.030.680
  27. 27. 27 3.4 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud January by type of product
  28. 28. 28 Type of products imports 2008 46% 11% 9% 11% 3% 20% Salt; sulphur; stone and cement. Articles of stone, plaster, cement or asbestos Iron and steel. Vegetables, tubers fruits and cereals Wood and articles of wood Others
  29. 29. 29 3.5 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud January – April 2009
  30. 30. 30 Cargo (tons) imports processed in Zamyn Uud by road and railway January-April 2004-2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 January 23866.2 29277.4 30225.8 31966.6 87333.4 34445.4 February 19207.3 22397.4 32065.1 29440.1 81379.4 25981.1 March 36015.2 43184.0 43636.2 48330.9 165170.7 35359.2 April 53873.2 62905.1 57763.7 78421.2 187587.0 67985.0 Total 132961.8 157764.0 163690.6 188158.8 521470.5 163770.7
  31. 31. 31 5. Revenues estimation for the PPP LPZU
  32. 32. 32 Transshipment revenues $3.8 million Road to Rail $ 2.11 million Rail to Rail $1.56 million Rail to Road $0.13 million 2008
  33. 33. 33 First estimation of the business logistics park Zamyn Uud Case A Discount rate 30 years PV basic revenues $ Million PV potential revenues $ Million PV total revenues $ Million 10% 61.2 1.6 62.8 12% 48.7 1.3 50.0 15% 37.0 1.0 38.0
  34. 34. 34 Discount rate 30 years PV total revenues (0.5%) $ Million Case B PV total revenues (1%) $ Million Case C PV total revenues (1,5%) $ Million Case D PV total revenues (1.8%) $ Million Case E PV total revenues $ Million (2%) Case F 10% 47.2 50.7 55.3 58.9 61.7 12% 39.8 42.5 45.9 48.4 50.5 15% 32.0 33.8 36.0 37.7 38.9 PV of revenues logistics park Zamyn Uud Cases B to F
  35. 35. 35 0 5000000 10000000 15000000 20000000 25000000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 2011-2040 USD 0.50% 1% 1.50% 1.80% 2% QRVD Comparison of revenues estimation transshipment cargo
  36. 36. 36 THANK YOU
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