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Patricio Mansilla - PPP in Mongolia

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    Patricio Mansilla - PPP in Mongolia Patricio Mansilla - PPP in Mongolia Presentation Transcript

    • Mongolia’s gateway logistics park in Zamyn Uud: Potential PPP? Chemonics International Ulan Bator – Mongolia 1 July 2010
    • Agenda1. PPP Project for Zamyn Uud logistics park2. Potential center of revenues for PPP3. Current demand4. Revenue estimation for PPP 2
    • 1. PPP project for Zamyn Uud logistics park 3
    • Zamyn Uud flow of cargo ENTER BY ROAD Final GOM clearances Weigh Mixed Manual Scale Loads inspection Overland by roadPRC Road-Rail Overland by rail UB transfer Homogenous Scanner Loads inspection Rail-Rail transfer Final Document Discharge Load to GOM check from UBTZ clearance PRCRR s ENTER BY RAIL Preliminary GOM clearances 4
    • 5
    • Survey in Zamyn Uud April 16th to 19th 2008 Problem % of ComplainsWaiting time for Permission Letter in Erlian 68%Stay overnight for closure of Mongolian border 94%Waiting time for weight in scale zone 64%Road to scanner in bad condition 53%Traffic jam and chaos in waiting area for inspection 55%Traffic jam and chaos in waiting area for customs for lack of 75%spaceLack of road or in bad condition 79%Transshipment to the wagon is slow and number of wagons 83%is insufficient 6
    • Beginning of Goods loaded in Erlian transportation Chinese border Mongolian border Interview point 1 ScaleAreas covered in Questionnaire 2 Areas covered in Questionnaire 3 Documentation for specialized Documentation for specialized Specialized inspection Specialized inspection Customs documentation Customs documentationPhysical inspection of mixed goods Scanner inspection homogeneous cargo Areas covered in Questionnaire 4 Provision of wagons for transshipment End of transportation Road to rail transshipment Interview point 4 7
    • Value of import cargo processed in Zamyn Uud by truck Year Value Million US$ 2004 54.2 2005 72.3 2006 96.0 2007 208.0 2008 368.2Total Accumulated 2004- 2008 798.7 8
    • Value of import cargo Zamyn Uud by truck monthly and weekly Value by month Value by week Period Million $ Million $Average 2008 30,686,883.2 7,671,720.8Average 9 months 2008 36,480,003.2 9,120,000.8(excluding nov-dec-jan)Average May-Jun-July 44,512,630.6 11,128,157.6 9
    • Cost of lack of infrastructure Zamyn Uud weekly ($ dollars) 20% of Total weekly 5% of indirect Period opportunity opportunity costs cost costAverage 2008 1,534,344.1 383,586 1,917,930.2Average 9 months2008 1,824,000.1 456,000 2,280,000.2(excluding Nov-Dec-Jan)Average May-Jun- 2,225,631.5 556,407 2,782,039.4July 10
    • 2. Potential center of revenues for PPP 11
    • Flow of revenuesRoad to Rail Rail to Road Rail to Rail Imports Exports Imports Fee Fee Fee Fee Fee Logistic ParkWarehouse Gas Station Development Co. Revenues from the Business or fee Tariff for rent m2 Revenues from the and % of business Business or fee Commercial Real Estate Parking Services Development 12
    • 3. Current demand 13
    • Current demand 14
    • Annual import tons and annual growth rate in Zamyn Uud Tons by Tons by Year Total Growth rate truck railway 2004 311,627 212,664 - 524,292 2005 362,563 222,957 11.7% 585,520 2006 416,260 228,300 10.1% 644,561 2007 698,593 293,589 53.9% 992,182 2008 1,189,794 350,744 55.3%15 1,540,539
    • Total cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by road and railway 2004-2008 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 AverageJanuary 23,866.153 29,277.436 30,225.754 31,966.569 87,333.419 40,533.866February 19,207.254 22,397.425 32,065.066 29,440.064 81,379.371 36,897.836March 36,015.163 43,184.018 43,636.150 48,330.923 165,170.691 67,267.389April 53,873.209 62,905.096 57,763.667 78,421.236 187,587.026 88,110.047May 57,468.028 57,914.687 62,581.153 86,671.477 189,039.761 90,735.021June 67,266.459 62,716.385 74,825.930 104,834.253 160,690.731 94,066.751July 47,856.327 67,932.232 69,396.434 152,588.527 169,283.233 101,411.351August 49,986.145 64,283.940 75,185.164 130,501.745 117,651.584 87,521.716September 55,643.238 59,210.501 67,203.198 96,206.249 129,331.700 81,518.977October 46,706.214 46,979.934 59,773.490 97,003.042 125,471.351 75,186.806November 33,835.384 39,840.188 39,919.603 66,490.841 68,038.323 49,624.868December 32,568.693 28,879.147 31,986.077 69,727.999 59,561.815 44,544.746Total 524,292.268 585,520.989 644,561.685 992,182.925 1,540,539.007Average 43,691.022 48,793.416 53,713.474 82,681.910 128,378.251 16
    • 2008 2007 2005 20062004 Months 17
    • Monthly comparison total 2004-2008 18
    • 3.1 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by road/truck Road-Rail 19
    • Annual import tons and annual growth rate cargo by truck Year Tons Growth rate 2004 311,627 2005 362,563 16% 2006 416,260 14.8% 2007 698,593 67.8% 2008 1,189,794 70% 20
    • 2008 2007 20062004 2005 21 Months
    • Monthly comparison road 2004-2008 22
    • 3.2 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud by railway Rail to Rail 23
    • Annual imports tons and annual growth rate cargo by railway Year Tons Growth rate 2004 212,664 - 2005 222,957 4.8% 2006 228,300 2.3% 2007 293,589 28.5% 2008 350,744 19.5% 24
    • 3.3 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud Rail to Road Exports 25
    • Annual transshipment export cargo (tons) Tons by Year Tons by railway Total truck 2004 21.195 707.259 728.454 2005 19.984 1.024.130 1.044.114 2006 23.903 1.309.758 1.333.661 2007 44.631 1.167.951 1.212.583 2008 53.663 1.977.017 2.030.680 26
    • 3.4 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud January by type of product 27
    • Type of products imports 2008 Salt; sulphur; stone and cement. 20% Articles of stone, plaster, cement or asbestos3% 46% Iron and steel. Vegetables, tubers fruits and11% cereals Wood and articles of wood 9% 11% Others 28
    • 3.5 Import cargo (tons) processed in Zamyn Uud January – April 2009 29
    • Cargo (tons) imports processed in Zamyn Uud by road and railway January-April 2004-2009 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009January 23866.2 29277.4 30225.8 31966.6 87333.4 34445.4February 19207.3 22397.4 32065.1 29440.1 81379.4 25981.1March 36015.2 43184.0 43636.2 48330.9 165170.7 35359.2April 53873.2 62905.1 57763.7 78421.2 187587.0 67985.0Total 132961.8 157764.0 163690.6 188158.8 521470.5 163770.7 30
    • 5. Revenues estimation for the PPP LPZU 31
    • 2008 Road to Rail $ 2.11 millionTransshipment Rail to Rail revenues $1.56 million $3.8 million Rail to Road $0.13 million 32
    • First estimation of the business logistics park Zamyn Uud Case A PV basic PV potential PV totalDiscount rate revenues revenues revenues 30 years $ Million $ Million $ Million 10% 61.2 1.6 62.8 12% 48.7 1.3 50.0 15% 37.0 1.0 38.0 33
    • PV of revenues logistics park Zamyn Uud Cases B to F PV total PV total PV total PV total PV totalDiscount revenues revenues revenues revenues revenues rate 30 (0.5%) (1%) (1,5%) (1.8%) $ Million years $ Million $ Million $ Million $ Million (2%) Case B Case C Case D Case E Case F 10% 47.2 50.7 55.3 58.9 61.7 12% 39.8 42.5 45.9 48.4 50.5 15% 32.0 33.8 36.0 37.7 38.9 34
    • Comparison of revenues estimation transshipment cargo 25000000 20000000 15000000USD 10000000 5000000 0 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 2011-2040 35 0.50% 1% 1.50% 1.80% 2% QRVD
    • THANK YOU 36