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Toni  Loyzaga  Revised  M O  Climate Risk 10262009 1
 

Toni Loyzaga Revised M O Climate Risk 10262009 1

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  • please kindly send me the reference details of 7th slide as well (Anglo, 2005). I can search the paper by myself. Thanks.
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  • Thanks lot for the very useful presentation, please send me full reference of slide number 6 (Perez et al., 2004)
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    Toni  Loyzaga  Revised  M O  Climate Risk 10262009 1 Toni Loyzaga Revised M O Climate Risk 10262009 1 Presentation Transcript

    • CLIMATE RISKS Dr. Gemma T. Narisma, Dr. Rosa T. Perez, Ms. Antonia Y. Loyzaga, with Dr. Celine Vicente and Dr. Fernando Siringan* Manila Observatory, Philippines * Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines Diliman
    • Outline • The Philippine Climate is Changing • The Philippine Climate will Continue to Change • The Philippines is Changing • An Integrated Risk Assessment • Ondoy: Extreme Hazard, Maximum Exposure, High Vulnerability
    • The Philippine Climate is Changing
    • Average Warmer temperatures summer (march m - ay) temperatures, 1900 1 - 995 Warmer temperatures Average annual temperatures, 1900 1 - 995 IPCC DDC
    • Dry months, Jan-April Wet months, June-October Wetter than usual Drier than usual Drier than usual IPCC DDC
    • Western Pacific Typhoon Tracks (1945-2003) (Angl Tropical Cyclone Passage Statistics (1948-1992); Metro Manila Bataan Bulacan Pampanga Cavite 36 20 19 18 16 Perez et al., 2004
    • Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones (1945-2003) More typhoon crossings over Visayas Anglo, 2005
    • 1. Isabela 2. Camarines Sur 3. Cagayan 4. Nueva Ecija 5. Pangasinan 6. Oriental Mindoro 7. Albay above 500M 8. Siquijor 9. Bulacan 10. Laguna 11. Pampanga 12. Occidental Mindoro 13. Surigao Del Sur 14. Quezon 15. Batangas 16. Cavite 17. Catanduanes 18. Capiz 19. Ilocos Norte 20. Bataan DA Data (1992-2006)
    • El Nino, La Nina, Drought, Floods www.flickr.com/photos/ gpsea/2498556888 http://anythingtheysay.blogspot.com.html bayanihanpost.com
    • Pepeng + Ondoy
    • 1. Isabela 2. Cagayan 3. Sorsogon 4. North Cotabato 5. Davao Del Sur 6. Bukidnon 7. Southern Leyte above 500M 8. Palawan 9. Quirino 10. Iloilo 11. Capiz 12. Camarines Sur 13. Davao Del Norte 14. Zamboanga Del Sur 15. Nueva Ecija 16. Maguindanao 17. Negros Oriental 18. Nueva Vizcaya 19. Davao Oriental 20. Quezon DA Data (1992-2006)
    • 1. Isabela 2. Nueva Ecija 3. Cagayan 4. Pangasinan 5. Ilocos Sur 6. Pampanga 7. Surigao Del Sur above 500M 8. La Union 9. Bulacan 10. Zamboanga Sibugay 11. Maguindanao 12. Agusan Del Norte 13. Lanao Del Norte 14. Abra 15. Aurora 16. Quirino 17. Ilocos Norte 18. Sulu 19. South Cotabato 20. Bataan Source: DA Data (1992-2006)
    • 1. Isabela 2. Cagayan 3. Camarines Sur 4. Nueva Ecija 5. Pangasinan 6. Bulacan 7. Iloilo 8. Pampanga 9. Oriental Mindoro 10. Albay 11. Siquijor 12. Laguna 13. Occidental Mindoro 14. Surigao Del Sur 15. Capiz 16. Quezon 17. Batangas 18. Cavite 19. Catanduanes 20. Bukidnon Department of Agriculture Data (1992-2006)
    • Minimum temperatures in LB have increased by more than 1oC 1979-2003 QuickTime™ and a decompressor Each 1oC rise cause are needed to see this picture. decrease in yield by 10% Peng et al(2004) Less rain or too much rain, less harvest, Changes in timing of rain also critical, CO2 rise favors crops, but weeds like it more New crop varieties will be needed Inquirer, NOAA, Caritas, Warwick and the Environment
    • The Philippine Climate will continue to change
    • HAZARD A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
    • HAZARD A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
    • The Philippines is Changing
    • Upgrading, increase in and clustering of urban centers
    • An Integrated Risk Assessment
    • RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY RISK Likelihood of Risk Lexicon harm, loss, disaster Physical impact of HAZARD disturbance Elements affected EXPOSURE by hazard Susceptibility & capacity to VULNERABILITY prepare, absorb, & recover from hazard (UNDP and UNDRO, 1979)
    • HAZARD A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
    • RISK 2020 2050 A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
    • HAZARD A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
    • RISK A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology
    • HAZARD RISK
    • ONDOY Extreme HAZARD, Maximum EXPOSURE, High VULNERABILITY
    • Rain Accumulated in Southern and Central Luzon (21-28 Sep 2009) 330.3 mm http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/Sta tsSpeak/2009/030909_rav_climatechan ge.asp http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/manila_rainfall_perspective_21- 28sep09.jpg • Accumulated rainfall over a week measured by TRMM was over 500 mm in Metro Manila. This value is higher than the monthly normal.
    • Accumulated Rainfall in Manila Observatory (21-28 Sep 2009) 500 Weekly Accumulated Rain = 459.8 mm Accumulated Rain Daily Rain 400 Daily 26 Sep 2009 368.6 mm Daily Rain (mm) Normal Monthly Accumulated Rain for September 300 200 100 0 9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28 • “Ondoy” brought a total of 368.8 mm of rain over Manila Observatory on September 26, 2009. • This daily rain measured in Manila Observatory is higher than the monthly normal (330.3mm) in the Port Area.
    • Hourly Rainfal, Average Pressure and Winds in Manila Observatory (26 Sep 2009) 70 Rain 1005 Barometric Pressure 60 Wind Direction 1000 Pressure (hPa) 50 and Wind Speed Rain (mm) 40 995 30 20 990 10 0 985 12 AM 3 AM 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM Time (pht) • The highest rainfall was measured in Manila Observatory between 9 AM and 1 PM. • Highest rainfall of 61.4 mm/hr was measured at 10 AM
    • Low-lying Coastal Zones • Philippines included in the top ten countries of the world with high population occupying the low elevation coastal zone or LECZ (> 15 million inhabitants). • LECZ is defined as a coastal zone < 10 meters of elevation.
    • Levy, M., CIESIN, Earth Institute 2007
    • The Urban Poverty Morphology Project Phase III Analysis of Migration and Spatial Distribution Dynamics of Informal Settlements in Metro Manila Using Geomatics 1997 2000 Metro Manila Informal Settlements Insets of (1997 vs. 2000) Slum Areas Boundaries of Slums Locations of Slums Fairview Major Roads Com monwealth KALOOKAN CITY Clusters (A-H) KALOOKAN CITY Payatas Zones of Urbanization Con stitu ti on Hills Bago ng S ilangan CLUSTER H CLUSTER H 1- Urban Core 2- Intermediate Zone Hol y S pirit 3- Urban Fringe Batasan Hills 4- Hills SCALE Matan dang Balara VALENZUELA VALENZUELA CITY 2 0 2 4 6 CITY ZONE 2 Kilometers ZONE 2 Slums along Commonwealth Ave., NAVOTAS NAVOTAS QUEZON CITY CLUSTER D CLUSTER D MUNICIPALITY MALABON MALABON ZONE 4 KALOOKAN CITY NAVOTAS QUEZON CITY ZONE 4 TONDO QUEZON CITY TONDO Barangay 19 CLUSTER A Barangay 20 CLUSTER A LAS PIÑAS CITY PARAÑAQUE CLUSTER B MAKATI CITY PASAY CITY CLUSTER B SAN NICOLAS Barangay 275 KALOOKAN MARIKINA KALOOKAN MARIKINA MALABON PATEROS PORT AREA CITY CITY CITY CITY Barangay 653 MANDALUYONG QUEZON CITY PORT AREA ZONE 1 MANILA SAN JUAN ZONE 1 Barangay 649 MARIKINA CITY TAGUIG MUNTINLUPA VALENZUELA PORT AREA Barangay 650 PORT Barang Poverty maps show: CLUSTER C CLUSTER E CLUSTER C CLUSTER E - Clusters of slums and squatter settlements MANILA SAN JUAN MANILA SAN JUAN around "attractors", these being commercial and industrial magnets, main transport routes, Slums in Port Area, easements and vacant lots, waterways, railways and under bridges (Refer to 1997 MANILA MANDALUYONG MANDALUYONG CITY Map of Surrounding Land Use) CITY PASIG PASIG CITY CITY - Distribution of urban poor commmunities Rosario Sta. L ucia following web-like urbanization that follow Maybunga the path of least resistance ZONE 3 ZONE 3 Cani ogan PATEROS - Self-perpetuating or aggravating conditions PATEROS San M igu el Manila Bay MAKATI CITY of blight (verified through ground reconnaissance) Manila Bay MAKATI CITY Palatiw Pin ag buhatan - Metastatic or spreading and "cumulative CLUSTER F impacts" of poverty (World Bank) CLUSTER F PASAY PASAY Kalaw aan CITY TAGUIG CITY TAGUIG Remarks: Napi ndan Images processed using Natural Color Algorithm PARAÑAQUE PARAÑAQUE R = Red Band CITY Slums beside Manggahan Floodway, CITY G = ((Green Band) * 3 + NIR Band) / 4 PASIG CITY CLUSTER G B = Green Band CLUSTER G SOURCE: Slums 2000 Laguna de Bay SPOT XS of Metor Manila, 1997 Image courtesy of Foundation for Laguna de Bay Slums 1997 LAS PIÑAS the Philippine Environment (FPE), LAS PIÑAS CITY CITY National Mapping and Reseource Barangay Boundary Information Authority (NAMRIA) and MUNTINLUPA United States Agency for International MUNTINLUPA CITY Development (USAID) CITY SPOT XS of Metro Manila, 2000 Image courtesy of University of the Philippines Training Center for Applied Geodesy and Photogrammetry (UP-TCAGP) The Manila Observatory and The Urban Research Consortium
    • ALOS/PALSAR Images Before and After “Ondoy” 2009 June 26, 2235 pht (before) 2009 September 26, 2235 pht (after) Lamesa DAM Lamesa DAM Lamesa DAM Marikina River Marikina River Marikina River http://maps.google.com/ http://dmss.tksc.jaxa.jp/download/ALPSRP182270280.jpg http://dmss.tksc.jaxa.jp/download/ALPSRP195690280.jpg Apparent increase in the Marikina River width after “Ondoy”.
    • BALUBAD, NANGKA, MARIKINA CITY MALANDAY, MARIKINA CITY
    • PROVIDENT, MARIKINA CITY MANGGAHAN, PASIG CITY
    • Emerging points …. Integrated risk assessment • Importance of identifying not only hazards but also exposure and vulnerability: People and Sectors • Each local community has a unique risk assessment Ondoy • Importance of land use/development planning • Information/data, observation and monitoring, including information dissemination
    • Trend towards increasing demand for water every five years around 2001 2001 2006 2006 2011 2011 the more urbanized and urbanizing sections of the metropolis. Estimated Water Demand per Land Use Type per Municipality 2016 2016 2021 2021
    • RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY Principal Rules of DRR (Adapted from Mechanism of Natural Disaster Reduction, ADRC, 2005) Mitigate the Hazard H R E V Minimize Exposure Decrease Vulnerability