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Estimating your Process Projects presented at FSOkx BPM Forum

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Estimating always presents challenges. This is especially true when estimating the intangibles of process improvement efforts. This presentation will focus on how to reduce the guesswork associated …

Estimating always presents challenges. This is especially true when estimating the intangibles of process improvement efforts. This presentation will focus on how to reduce the guesswork associated with the estimation process by considering the following questions: What is it that you are estimating? How big is the thing you are estimating? What baselines are you using for your estimates? Should you be estimating top down, bottom up or somewhere in between? How do your estimates tie to your project plan? Do your estimates reflect ROI and business value?

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  • Processes are intangible, ambiguous and invisible Lack of shared understanding of how a process is performed Process knowledge resides with one or two key individuals Belief that the “system” handles the process steps……..Most systems will typically only handle 20-30% of a process and not the entire set of activities. Uncertainty around where the process truly starts and ends Processes evolve over time: making the past, present and future look differentCan’t touch them and feel them. How do we get past that?Ask audience: Have any of you failed at estimating your BPM projects?
  • So let’s dive in and look at how you can gain a better understanding of what you are estimating, the size of the effort (small medium or large – or even extra large) and how best to baseline your estimates to ensure you have a successful project.
  • The key to all successful projects is to scope the effort. This will ensure that we reduce project risks.The less time spent on discovery the greater the possibility for project costs to inflate and scope creep to become common place.This is a balancing act because we want to ensure we spend enough time to get our estimating accurate but without spending an absorbent amount of time trying to figure out what it is we are trying to solve. This can be especially true with large scale efforts and may dictate the need to break the project into smaller chunks. A common pitfall of discovery is that different business units will want to add scope to address their issues, which may be great ideas but we need to keep to the “must have” vs. the “nice to have”.A BPM project can be comprised of multiple layers, which all need to be looked at.Time needed for Process modeling, Understanding the detailed business rules, What does our content management include, Which data sources/databases are needed
  • Different tools can be used to capture scope, one tool we have found to be most effective in scoping processes is this process scope diagram.By using this tool we get into the key activities that we want to address and then take time with those who perform the work to outline what are the drivers/inputs and what is the expected product/end results.During this working session we also identify the systems, roles, (aka tools) used to perform this process. We also want to spend time understanding the constraints or barriers to getting their job done timely, accurately, etc.What we find through this exercise is we are able to filter out the key information and often times identify things that were not commonly known or understood by everyone.This is an effective way of getting to the true heart of a process without having to draw “boxes and arrows”. But this will serve as a key reference document when the time comes to document the process step by step.
  • Create a blueprint of your businessYou wouldn’t build a house without a blueprint? So Why would you attempt to run a multi-million dollar business without one?Process Awareness is knowing how your processes ARE being performed, not just how you THINK they are being performedHow long they take, How much they cost to execute, How many people are needed, What controls are in place, How standard the tasks areBefore making decisions…Understand your processes, Model (visualize) them for clarification and communication, Verify what and how things are being doneOn a recent BPM project at a University, we setup shop in a old classroom and began to wallpaper the room with blueprints of their end to end business as they were beginning to evaluate the requirements for a new ERP system. This gave them an awareness of how things are done, which they had never seen before.
  • Design can be a great time to think outside the box and to “challenge the norm” . The clarify and design phase can generate a lot of buzz / excitement from participants because they begin to see the potential for change. Use this to your advantage to generate excitement and to socialize the new concepts and ideas.However, due so with caution as you will want to begin understanding if your estimates and budget will support these new ideas, concepts and the technology needed to support it. If not approached with care you can find yourself in a situation where the excitement and demand have exceeded your ability to deliver, causing others to be disappointed when the project is complete. Leaving them asking “what happened to that really cool thing” we talked about – that was really slick and would have made my life awesome!Communicate the need for the change…..Good communication is key at this point. Don’t underestimate the time needed to continuously socialize the progress and approach!!
  • Can you base your estimates on fact? You cannot base them of theories or ideas or concepts. Ensure that your baseline is comprehensive and takes into account all aspects of the project.Do not underestimate the power of change and what is needed to affect the culture – be prepared to face adversity and those who will work against you through the entire process. I have seen in almost all BPM projects a limited amount of budget set aside for time spent with other departments, leaders or business partners to communicate the changes and include them in the project. Don’t do your estimating in a bubble….. you can’t do it alone.Additional talking points: (As needed)Complete a rough order of magnitude for each of the process activities to obtain a baseline of time needed.Next determine the resources you will need for each of those activities.Lastly translate your resource allocation needs and other supporting project costs into an overall project breakdown.
  • Scoping needs to focus on tangible aspects of the project – something to the point to vs. speaking in hypotheticalsA lot of folks believe that BPM projects are the same as any other project… but not true…BPM has a higher dynamic of changeRequirements phase does not discover all process optionsMore unknowns that in other software development projectsNeed more involvement of business SMEsSaturation of requirements by around 80-85% maximumMore than 15% of requirements are still unknown when development beginsEstimation need to account for thatUnknown requirements can lead to scope creepChange control discipline is requiredAgile methods have a built-in change control through the backlog management
  • Selling process change…planning, communication, gaining support, workshops, walkthroughs, etc. This all can take a lot of time.What does your budget planning cycle look like and how ahead of that process do you need to be to gain approval for the implementation costs and begin planning for the short and long term. Remember, BPM projects may take multiple phases over several years so prepare and demonstrate those potential costs early on.Other considerationResistance to changeRe-deployment of resources that have been eliminatedRoles and Responsibilities need to be identifiedActually resources that do the work should be involved
  • There are a variety of Project delivery methods that may work well with BPM projects. You will need to pick the one best suited for your organization, what resources you have available and knowledgeable on these delivery methods.Waterfall– will work with BPM projects but require good disciplineDoes not work well with dynamic changes Tendency to protect scope , might block needed BPM dynamic of changeAgile – work well with BPM projectsDoes require business commitmentNot always easy to implementBest gain of project efficiency and shortest project durationHybrids – work well with BPM projectsE.g. Iterative WaterfallUse the best of both approachesGood gain of project efficiencyRequire less changes to project organizations
  • The graph represents the ROI achieved by implementing a BPM project focused on pharmacy supply chain, better inventory control and labor savings by automating tasks that were formally manual thereby reducing OT and labor costs.The dip in the July timeframe was due to a new medical director coming into these facilities and wanting to influence the method of pharmacy delivery. Who once trained on the process was able to bring the savings back in line – but was an influencer and when first noticed was an awareness to the team that things as small as a new resource coming into the project could and would affect the outcomes.Our KPI target was to achieve between $500k-$1m a year in ROI for pharmacy savings
  • There are numerous challenges and risks to estimating ROI for BPM projects.Some of the ones I have faced most often.Over estimated potential savings– which created a false sense of the opportunity – making it hard to come back down once actual targets are understood further.ROI is only achieved through headcount reduction – while this can be a valid point – that shouldn’t be the inevitable goal and will only provide a one-time savings – the goal should be to continue to improve to ensure the model support higher throughput, better cycle times and better customer satisfactionSavings may be inconsistent – be prepared for savings to be lumpy and have an ability to assess and explain those variances.Continued support – need to continuously have an ability to monitor and demonstrate the ongoing improvement. Don’t let the initial “savings high” cause you to relax the importance of monitoring the process. Also be prepared for the savings to level out once it reaches its peak.
  • There are many events that can be caused by poor estimating, some of which may cause severe downstream impacts many of which are unseen or planned.Get your BPM estimating right so that you can deliver on the expected / desired result.
  • In thinking about estimating a BPM project, I wanted to relate this to a real life example.Then it hit me one day as I was sitting in my home office, working on this presentation and thinking back on all the BPM projects I have estimated and been involved with. I thought back about how frustrating it can be because I couldn’t always visualize what I would have at the end.. I asked myself…Will the process improvement really give me what I need to improve my business? Will our customer’s really benefit from this?I have always considered myself handy and have always taken on home improvement projects, from tile floors to basement remodels. At that moment, I realized that I was in the middle of the largest home improvement project I have ever approached to date. I didn’t know where to start, how much it would cost and really didn’t have any idea of what it would look like when complete.. Planning for a pool has by far been the most complicated, vague and frustrating home improvement project… which led me to the realization that I should plan this as I would any of the BPM projects I face…
  • Often your ROI might not be a large monetary value, but the business value gained is worth the investment to ensure better customer satisfaction, increased market share or perhaps happier employees - who may be ready to walk out the door.
  • Summarize from slide points
  • Summarize from slide points

Transcript

  • 1. Estimating your Process Projects FSOkx BPM Forum: September 17th, 2013
  • 2. Matt Yeager Manager, Advisory & Consulting myeager@prolifics.com Office: 646-380-2972 Anant Gupta Senior Vice President, IBM Solutions agupta@prolifics.com Office: 646.201.4960
  • 3. 3 • Los Angeles • San Francisco • London • Hamburg • Hyderabad • Calabasas • New York • Boston • Philadelphia • Washington DC • Orlando In business for over 35 years, Prolifics is a Global Technology Consulting company with 1300 employees worldwide specializing in the expert delivery of end-to-end Solutions utilizing IBM, Microsoft and Open Source technologies. Who Are We? Our Vision To be one of the most admired global technology consulting companies, delivering competitive advantage to our customers through value add solutions. Our Mission Our mission is to be a trusted technology advisor and provide superior, specialized solutions to companies seeking high value from their technology investments. Prolifics at a glance
  • 4. FY 2012: $105M 35 years of continued growth Over 350 customers including over 150 of the current Fortune 1000 companies Over 400 technical certifications SkillsRevenue Customers Services across the full project lifecycle including advisory services, architecture, business analysis, design, development, testing, training, support, and system administration End-to-End Services from Thought to Finish Partnerships & Processes Company Snapshot 4
  • 5. Why are we here…  Estimating always presents challenges  The intangibles of a process effort can be hard to pinpoint  Reduce the guesswork associated with the estimation process 5
  • 6. Why are Process Projects so Hard to Estimate? 6 Intangible Ambiguous Invisible Lack of Understanding Start? End? End? Evolves System
  • 7. Let’s Dive In…  What are you estimating?  How big is the effort?  What baselines are you using?  Can you keep to your estimates?  Are you achieving ROI and business value? 7
  • 8. Prolifics BPM Delivery Framework Discover Review / Develop Organization Strategy Assess People and Culture Define Business Architecture Document Technical Architecture Prepare Action Plan Scope Facilitate Scoping Session Document Problems with Current State Define Process Vision Identify Candidate Project(s) Clarify Model As-Is Process Document Business Rules Perform Problem Analysis Define Data & Key Performance Measures Define Roles and Responsibilities Identify Tactical Opportunities Develop Business Case for Change Design Model To-Be Process Build Gap Model Conduct Innovation Workshop Perform Organizational Impact Analysis Realign Incentives to New Process Define Quick Wins (Low Hanging Fruit) Define Business Requirements Identify Technology Opportunities Produce Cost/Benefit Analysis Implement Develop Transformation Plan Define Implementation / Work Plan Implement New Roles/ Org Structure Define / Update Policies & Procedures Implement Manual Process Changes Apply Process Automation Implement Business Rules Management Monitor and Control Monitor On-Going Process Performance Identify Improvement Opportunities Frame your Estimating
  • 9. Do Discovery BEFORE Estimating  Do Not rush Discovery…it is too important  Understand your organization's strategic vision  Determine if your culture and resources are accepting of change  Define and document your business architecture  Socialize your project and gather feedback  Analyze project risks  Formulate an action plan 9
  • 10. 10 Process Scope Diagram Controls/ Constraints Enablers Outputs Inputs Business Process Milestones/ Activities Things that govern or dictate how a process performs Things that enable a process to be performed Things produced by a process Things that initiate a process (Business Rules, Regulatory Requirements, Laws, etc.) (Work Products, Transformed Data) (Business Events/ Triggers, Data, Inputs from other Processes) (Roles, Systems, Organizations, etc.)
  • 11. Understand Process Project Types 11
  • 12. Discover Review / Develop Organization Strategy Assess People and Culture Define Business Architecture Document Technical Architecture Prepare Action Plan Scope Facilitate Scoping Session Document Problems with Current State Define Process Vision Identify Candidate Project(s) Clarify Model As-Is Process Document Business Rules Perform Problem Analysis Define Data & Key Performance Measures Define Roles and Responsibilities Identify Tactical Opportunities Develop Business Case for Change Design Model To-Be Process Build Gap Model Conduct Innovation Workshop Perform Organizational Impact Analysis Realign Incentives to New Process Define Quick Wins (Low Hanging Fruit) Define Business Requirements Identify Technology Opportunities Produce Cost/Benefit Analysis Implement Develop Transformation Plan Define Implementation / Work Plan Implement New Roles/ Org Structure Define / Update Policies & Procedures Implement Manual Process Changes Apply Process Automation Implement Business Rules Management Monitor and Control Monitor On-Going Process Performance Identify Improvement Opportunities Prolifics BPM Delivery Framework Estimate Modeling & Design Based on Scope
  • 13. Clarify What You’re Estimating  Estimate the current-state and the “to-be” process/sub processes  This will serve as the blueprint for the project  Modeling the full end-to-end process  Focus on the “what” not the “how”  Capture enough information to gain process awareness 13
  • 14. Estimate ALL Framework Components  Business Rules  Data & Key Performance Indicators  Changes to Roles & Responsibilities  Time for Creativity workshops & Brainstorming new ideas for process improvement  Organization impact (time with Human Resources)  Explore technology options 14
  • 15. Focus Your Efforts  Use process maps to further scope the project’s level of effort  Conduct a gap analysis  Identify stakeholder involvement  Determine span of process control  Does the process cross departments or business partners?  Does the change impact organization structures and roles?  Does it require new technology or changes to existing?  Is training needed, how long will it take to develop and deliver? 15
  • 16. What to Consider for your Baseline Estimate  Do you have a basis from another successful process project?  Have you considered the time it takes to get accurate estimates from business partners?  Can you demonstrate that your estimates are based on facts?  Have you been honest with how long it takes to change the culture, gain leadership support and identify changes in roles?  Have you estimated in appropriate time for the following:  Project ramp-up, closure, training, deployment and warranty 16
  • 17. Common Pitfalls when Estimating  Scope is to narrow or vague  Additional funding is needed to continue the effort  Focus is solely on the selection and purchase of a technology  Does not include cross-department involvement from subject matter experts, which is needed to capture a full end-to-end process  Adequate time is not spent identifying the ROI, business value or customer needs  Not enough time spent understanding the business rules/decision management associated with their processes 17
  • 18. How many of you consider business rules / decision management when estimating your projects?
  • 19. How can we ensure that business decisions are managed in a controlled environment? Governance How can we ensure the right decision is being made at the right time? Visibility Key Challenges Addressed by Decision Management How can we rapidly respond to evolving market demands, competitive actions and regulatory requirements? Collaboration
  • 20. Discover Review / Develop Organization Strategy Assess People and Culture Define Business Architecture Document Technical Architecture Prepare Action Plan Scope Facilitate Scoping Session Document Problems with Current State Define Process Vision Identify Candidate Project(s) Clarify Model As-Is Process Document Business Rules Perform Problem Analysis Define Data & Key Performance Measures Define Roles and Responsibilities Identify Tactical Opportunities Develop Business Case for Change Design Model To-Be Process Build Gap Model Conduct Innovation Workshop Perform Organizational Impact Analysis Realign Incentives to New Process Define Quick Wins (Low Hanging Fruit) Define Business Requirements Identify Technology Opportunities Produce Cost/Benefit Analysis Implement Develop Transformation Plan Define Implementation / Work Plan Implement New Roles/ Org Structure Define / Update Policies & Procedures Implement Manual Process Changes Apply Process Automation Implement Business Rules Management Monitor and Control Monitor On-Going Process Performance Identify Improvement Opportunities Not Just Implementing Technology Prolifics BPM Delivery Framework
  • 21. Do Not Underestimate Implementation  Changing people’s roles and organizational culture  Reorganizing around process-oriented business model  Modifying policies/procedures  Selling Process Change  Can be It’s own phase…  Training  Can take significant time to prepare and deliver  How will training be delivered?  Are resources geographically dispersed? 21
  • 22. What Type of Implementation?  Big Bang  Could require less time, but much greater risk  Parallel Transition  Running parallel processes for a time, more cost but less risk  Pilot  Could require more time, but lower risk  Step Change  Phased implementation (e.g. regions, states, etc.)  Requires more time, but much less risk than Big Bang 22
  • 23. Measure Success Against your Estimates “When you can measure what you are speaking about and express it in numbers you know something about it; but when you cannot measure it, when you cannot express it in numbers, your knowledge is of a meager and unsatisfactory kind.” - Lord Kelvin 23 ROI cannot be demonstrated without proper measures…
  • 24. Monitor KPIs and ROI Example Total annual savings = $1.3m
  • 25. Risks and Challenges of Estimating ROI Risks  Over estimating potential savings  Setting unreachable goals  Addressing business value that isn’t aligned with the organization’s current vision  Belief that true ROI is only achieved through headcount reduction Challenges  Factual estimating takes time  All estimates will be questioned  Ability to measure, monitor and demonstrate ongoing savings  Savings may be inconsistent  Continued leadership dedication and support is needed 25
  • 26. Ramification of Poor Estimating  Project fails or ends before needed improvement is achieved  Loss of customers and revenue  Unable to meet regulatory or compliance demands  Critical or adverse events such as..  In health care, process failure results in patient injury or death  In finance, poor estimating results in lack of detecting fraud and potential loss of customer money/investments  Lawsuit and damages paid to affected customers  Your business is sold or closed! 26
  • 27. ESTIMATING MY POOL PROJECT 27
  • 28. How I Approached Estimating  Documented my scope - what is needed vs. what is a nice to have  Obtained bids with detailed cost information for each item/task  Created a baseline estimate based on scope and bids  Consulted colleagues, friends and family members with pool  Finalized scope and budget projection  Obtained Executive (aka. My Wife!) approval and secured funding 28
  • 29. What Return on Investment & Value Will I Get?  Limited return on investment since a pool won’t significantly increase my property value  Ongoing costs will be associated with maintenance, repairs and increased electric, gas and water bills  Value is achieved when…  Wife and Daughter - my “customers” are happy and relaxed!!  The whole family is outside more (away from TV/iPads)  Daughter is part fish and loves to swim  Family and Friends will want to come and stay at our house 29
  • 30. Visualize Your Goal!! 30 http://www.hearstcastle.org/
  • 31. Closing Comments 31
  • 32. Remember, Estimating Change can be Hard!  Only change what is needed to address the business problem  Don’t boil the ocean  Only model to the level of detail necessary to understand and address the problems  Address the most critical issues first, weakest link in the chain • Goldratt’s Theory of Constraints  Estimate based on the process and what is factual  ‘Process reengineering’ should be the exception 32
  • 33. Why you need Comprehensive Estimating  Dedicated focused team  Have Leadership support  Time needed from other departments  Project is phased appropriately  Understand the technology needs  Understand clearly what your scope is for the project  Documented current and future state process models  Attainable and stretch goals set for ROI and business value 33
  • 34. Relax and Get Estimating!! 34
  • 35. 35 And visit these useful links on the Prolifics Web site:  Case Studies: http://www.prolifics.com/case-study-technology.htm  Webcasts: http://www.prolifics.com/webcasts.htm  Podcasts: http://www.prolifics.com/podcasts.htm  Service Brochures: http://www.prolifics.com/service-brochures.htm  Technology Blog: http://expert-tech.blogspot.com  Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/prolifics  Prolifics TV: http://www.youtube.com/prolificstv