GIVENS AND WILD CARDS IN
ENERGY FORESIGHT
Alexander Van de Putte
Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010)
Predetermined elements that have
two defining characteristics:...
Demographics
Climate
Change
Hydrocarbon
Supply
GIVENS in Energy Foresight
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
10,000
5,000
2,000
1,000
World
200
100
50
20
10
Asia
Europe
Africa
...
Source: data from United Nations Population Division
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People, Millions
Age
People...
Source: data from United Nations Population Division
Population Trends – Large
Emerging Markets
Female
Male
People, Millio...
3,000 10,000 15,000 25,000
Energydemand
Demand explodes as
industrialization and
personal mobility
take off
Demand grows m...
Resources (billion barrels)
Productioncost(dollars–2008)
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Produced MENA
Other
c...
Source: Jeroen van der Veer, Shell (2008)
“We are experiencing a step-change in the
growth rate of energy demand due to
po...
Source: Christophe de Margerie, TOTAL (2009)
“The world will never be able to produce
more than 89 million barrels of oil ...
Source: Peter J. Robertson, Chevron Corporation (2008)
“It took 125 years to consume the first trillion
barrels of oil, bu...
Source: Consensus view among peakoilist
100
80
60
40
20
0
Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010...
Source: IPCC, 2007
“most of (>50% of) the observed increase in
globally averaged temperatures since the
mid-20th century i...
Source: UNEP (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_processes_characteristics_and_threats)
Hydrocarbon resources ...
Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010)
Characteristics:
‣ It must be a very low probability event;
‣ ...
Source: PFC Energy (2009)
Brazil
0
Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday
1750
1250
1500
1000
750
500
250
Russia Iraq Nigeria...
The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 1/3
Source: Hyperion Power Generation
Source: TerraPower
A.Coolant pumps
B. Expansion area for fission
gases
C. Fuel: spent fuel from
traditional nuclear reacto...
Traditional view
BIG
FIXED
STATIC
NOT
SAFE
NUCLEAR
WASTE
Source: Hyperion Power Generation
Emerging view
SMALL
MODULAR
SCA...
GIVENS AND WILD CARDS IN
ENERGY FORESIGHT
Alexander Van de Putte
8 Tx M A Vd P[2]
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8 Tx M A Vd P[2]

  1. 1. GIVENS AND WILD CARDS IN ENERGY FORESIGHT Alexander Van de Putte
  2. 2. Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010) Predetermined elements that have two defining characteristics: ‣ The degree of uncertainty must be low ‣ The level of impact must be high GIVENS Defined
  3. 3. Demographics Climate Change Hydrocarbon Supply GIVENS in Energy Foresight
  4. 4. 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 10,000 5,000 2,000 1,000 World 200 100 50 20 10 Asia Europe Africa Latin America Northern America Oceania People,Thousands People, Millions People, Millions Age Age Female Male Source: data from United Nations Population Division World Population 400 200 0 200 400 0-4 25-29 50-54 75-79 100+ World 2010 1.000 500 0 500 1.000 0-4 25-29 50-54 75-79 100+ World 2030
  5. 5. Source: data from United Nations Population Division People, Millions Age People, Millions Age People, Millions Age People, Millions Age People, Millions Age People, Millions Age Female Male Population Trends - OECD
  6. 6. Source: data from United Nations Population Division Population Trends – Large Emerging Markets Female Male People, Millions Age People, Millions Age People, Millions Age People, Millions Age Age Age People, Millions People, Millions
  7. 7. 3,000 10,000 15,000 25,000 Energydemand Demand explodes as industrialization and personal mobility take off Demand grows more slowly than incomes as services dominate growth and basic household energy needs are met Demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed Economic growth requires little additional energy GDP/Capita in constant PPP terms Source: Shell, Global scenarios to 2050 Energy Demand and Economic Growth
  8. 8. Resources (billion barrels) Productioncost(dollars–2008) 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Produced MENA Other con- ventional oil CO2-EOR EOR Artic Deepwater and ultra deepwater Heavy oil and bitumen Oil shales Gas to Liquids Coal to Liquids 8,000 9,000 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Source: International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook Hydrocarbon Resources
  9. 9. Source: Jeroen van der Veer, Shell (2008) “We are experiencing a step-change in the growth rate of energy demand due to population growth and economic development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies for easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand.” Hydrocarbon Supply – 1/4
  10. 10. Source: Christophe de Margerie, TOTAL (2009) “The world will never be able to produce more than 89 million barrels of oil a day.” “We are running the risk of another oil crisis when demand outstrips supply around 2014 or 2015.” Hydrocarbon Supply – 2/4
  11. 11. Source: Peter J. Robertson, Chevron Corporation (2008) “It took 125 years to consume the first trillion barrels of oil, but it will only take another 35 years to consume the next trillion barrels.” Hydrocarbon Supply – 3/4
  12. 12. Source: Consensus view among peakoilist 100 80 60 40 20 0 Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday 120 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 World energy demand World energy supply Hydrocarbon Supply – 4/4
  13. 13. Source: IPCC, 2007 “most of (>50% of) the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level >90%) due to the observed increase in anthropogenic (human) greenhouse gas concentrations”. Climate Change
  14. 14. Source: UNEP (http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/climate_change_processes_characteristics_and_threats) Hydrocarbon resources – 1/3 Climate change: Processes, characteristics and threats
  15. 15. Source: Alexander Van de Putte, Cambridge University (2010) Characteristics: ‣ It must be a very low probability event; ‣ It must have a huge impact, and; ‣ It must be seen to be logical and explainable after the facts. Wild Cards Defined
  16. 16. Source: PFC Energy (2009) Brazil 0 Millionbarrelsofoilequivalentperday 1750 1250 1500 1000 750 500 250 Russia Iraq Nigeria Kazakhstan Meet the BRINKs
  17. 17. The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 1/3 Source: Hyperion Power Generation
  18. 18. Source: TerraPower A.Coolant pumps B. Expansion area for fission gases C. Fuel: spent fuel from traditional nuclear reactors. Life time: 60 years D.Fission wave (red) E. Breeding wave (yellow) F. Liquid sodium coolant The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 2/3
  19. 19. Traditional view BIG FIXED STATIC NOT SAFE NUCLEAR WASTE Source: Hyperion Power Generation Emerging view SMALL MODULAR SCALABLE CANNOT GO SUPERCRITICAL CLOSES THE NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE STATIONARY BATTERY The 2 Faces of Nuclear Energy – 3/3 A Fundamental Paradigm Shift
  20. 20. GIVENS AND WILD CARDS IN ENERGY FORESIGHT Alexander Van de Putte

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