Myths and Realities of Africa’s Development<br />Mthuli Ncube<br />Chief Economist and Vice President<br />African Develop...
Africa’s Economic Growth:2000-2010<br />African growth is strong.<br />Africa the 3rd fastest growth region over 10 years<...
3<br />
Africa’s Socio-Economic Progress<br />Poverty levels are falling<br />Per capita income is rising<br />Inequality is risin...
Africa’s Socio-Economic Progress….continued<br />Staple food yields have not improved<br />Fertilizer consumption has fall...
Regulatory Policy Improvements in Africa<br />Improvements in regulatory environment<br />Reforming countries grow faster<...
Intra-Africa Trade<br />Intra-Africa trade remains low compared to other regions<br />Investment in regional transport inf...
Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other developing regions on all dimensions<br />Regional connectivity is particularly lacki...
Power : Missing links<br />Source: AUC, AfDB, WB presentation at UN Millennium Summit, September 2010<br />9<br />
Roads : Missing links<br />Source: AUC, AfDB, WB presentation at UN Millennium Summit, September 2010<br />10<br />
ICT: Missing links<br />Source: AUC, AfDB, WB presentation at UN Millennium Summit, September 2010<br />11<br />
Africa’s Agriculture Performance<br />Agriculture sector is important as 60% of population in Africa depends on it<br />St...
Africa’s Governance Progress<br />Improvements in 3 areas of governance <br />No improvement in “voice and accountability”...
New Classification of African Countries<br />14<br />Emerging Markets<br />Frontier Markets<br /><ul><li>High income & growth
 Macroeconomic stability
 Diversified export base
Financial markets</li></ul>(e.g. South Africa, Tunisia)<br />Transition<br /><ul><li>High income & growth
 Macroeconomic stability
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Myths & Realities in Africa’s New Development (Danida Development Days) - Prof. Mthuli Ncube keynote address 2 May in Copenhagen

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Prof. Mthuli Ncube gives a keynote address on the 2nd of May 2011 in Copenhagen on the 'Danida Development Days - Myths and Realities in Africa’s new development'

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Myths & Realities in Africa’s New Development (Danida Development Days) - Prof. Mthuli Ncube keynote address 2 May in Copenhagen

  1. 1. Myths and Realities of Africa’s Development<br />Mthuli Ncube<br />Chief Economist and Vice President<br />African Development Bank group<br />2 May 2011<br />DANIDA DEVLOPMENT DAYS, Copenhagen: 2-4 May 2011<br />1<br />
  2. 2. Africa’s Economic Growth:2000-2010<br />African growth is strong.<br />Africa the 3rd fastest growth region over 10 years<br />Africa did well out of financial crisis due to good economic management, and diversification<br />GDP level at US$1.6 billion at par with Brazil or Russia<br />Growth is being held back by factors such as infrastructure (taking away 2% of GDP growth)<br />Africa is natural resource rich<br />Growth not Inclusive<br />Source:AfDB<br />2<br />
  3. 3. 3<br />
  4. 4. Africa’s Socio-Economic Progress<br />Poverty levels are falling<br />Per capita income is rising<br />Inequality is rising<br />Intra-Africa trade has risen slightly and so has Africa’s share of world global trade<br />ICT access and penetration has increased substantially<br />Access to water and sanitation has not improved<br />4<br />
  5. 5. Africa’s Socio-Economic Progress….continued<br />Staple food yields have not improved<br />Fertilizer consumption has fallen<br />Under-5 child mortality has fallen<br />Primary school completion rates are flat<br />Number of fragile states has dropped<br />Combustible renewables and waste to generate energy is not increasing<br />Cost of doing business has fallen<br />Time required for business start-up has fallen<br />5<br />
  6. 6. Regulatory Policy Improvements in Africa<br />Improvements in regulatory environment<br />Reforming countries grow faster<br />Investment climate is improving<br />Rising Middleclass of 300 million people critical to private sector growth<br />Source: McKinsey Global institute<br />6<br />
  7. 7. Intra-Africa Trade<br />Intra-Africa trade remains low compared to other regions<br />Investment in regional transport infrastructure and ports, is necessary<br />Source: AfDB<br />7<br />
  8. 8. Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind other developing regions on all dimensions<br />Regional connectivity is particularly lacking <br />8<br />
  9. 9. Power : Missing links<br />Source: AUC, AfDB, WB presentation at UN Millennium Summit, September 2010<br />9<br />
  10. 10. Roads : Missing links<br />Source: AUC, AfDB, WB presentation at UN Millennium Summit, September 2010<br />10<br />
  11. 11. ICT: Missing links<br />Source: AUC, AfDB, WB presentation at UN Millennium Summit, September 2010<br />11<br />
  12. 12. Africa’s Agriculture Performance<br />Agriculture sector is important as 60% of population in Africa depends on it<br />Staple crop yields remain flat<br />Fertilizer consumption low<br />Source: FAO<br />12<br />
  13. 13. Africa’s Governance Progress<br />Improvements in 3 areas of governance <br />No improvement in “voice and accountability”<br />Static in “government effectiveness”<br />Source: World Governance Indicators 2010<br />13<br />
  14. 14. New Classification of African Countries<br />14<br />Emerging Markets<br />Frontier Markets<br /><ul><li>High income & growth
  15. 15. Macroeconomic stability
  16. 16. Diversified export base
  17. 17. Financial markets</li></ul>(e.g. South Africa, Tunisia)<br />Transition<br /><ul><li>High income & growth
  18. 18. Macroeconomic stability
  19. 19. Diversified export base
  20. 20. Financial markets</li></ul>(e.g. Ghana, Kenya)<br />Pre-Transition<br />Fragile States<br />Oil Producers: additional criteria focusing more on capacity to manage oil revenues (e.g. Angola, Libya)<br />
  21. 21. Africa’s Development Challenges<br />Infrastructure Deficit (US$45 billion annually)<br />Opportunity but Better management of relationships with “new partners”: China, India, Brazil, Russia, etc<br />Regional integration<br />Improving investment climate<br />Promoting Domestic Direct Investment (DDI)<br />Development Small to Medium Scale enterprises<br />15<br />
  22. 22. Africa’s Development Challenges….continued<br />Economic structural transformation<br />Balancing “population dividend” with “poverty challenges”<br />Inclusive growth and Youth Unemployment<br />Higher education, vocation education and skills development<br />Financial inclusion<br />Development of agricultural sector<br />16<br />
  23. 23. Africa’s Development Challenges…continued<br />Domestic resource mobilization<br />Effective and transparent management of natural resource revenues< e.g SWFs<br />Dealing with illicit financial flows<br />Piracy<br />Leveraging ODA for private sector support<br />Instituting flexible macroeconomic management<br />Ensuring “Strong, Sustained and Shared Growth, which is preferably Clean” (SSSc)<br />17<br />
  24. 24. Thank You<br />18<br />

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