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Post-Soviet Ukraine
   April 11, 2007
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In 2004, Ukraine reached a critical juncture
on its path to democratic consolidation.

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Ukraine turned away from the autocratic path
of Russia with its Orange Revolution.

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How did Ukraine overcome its problems to
move gingerly towards democracy?

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We can examine Ukraine from the three
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"treatments" and theories of
democratization.
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Ukraine had a lot of help from the outside and
a division between East and West.

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In the beginning, Ukraine's post-Soviet
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political development closely followed
Russia's.
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‣ Ukraine's second president, Leonid
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 Kuchma, was a cross between Yeltsin and
 Putin.
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‣‣ He was a former factory manger, closely
   connected with Ukraine's own oligarchs.

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‣‣ During his time in office, being a
   journalist in Ukraine was very deadly.

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‣‣ Kuchma utilized "administrative
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   resources" to solidify his power and
   support.
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‣ Under Kuchma, it seemed Ukraine lacked
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 the norms and culture to make democracy
 work.
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‣‣ The media was heavily biased against the
   political opposition.

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‣‣ Political opposition was harassed and
   rumors were used to suppress support.

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‣‣ Parliament was controlled by pro-Kuchma
   parties backed by the oligarchs.

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‣ Kuchma attempted to manipulate the 2004
 election in favor of his chosen successor.

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‣‣ Viktor Yanukovych beat Viktor
                                            I
   Yushchenko in a second-round runoff in
   Nov 2004.
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‣‣ The validity of the second-round election
   results were challenged.

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‣‣ The subsequent overturning of those
   results is called the Orange Revolution.

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The Orange Revolution was a break from
Ukraine’s past.

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‣ There are several key decisions that make
 the Orange Revolution a critical juncture.

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‣‣ Yushchenko's supporters choose to
   peacefully protest the rigged election.

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‣‣ Ukraine's Supreme Court choose to hear
   the fraud case and rule against Kuchma.

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‣‣ Kuchma choose to support the findings of
   the Supreme Court.

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‣ One reason these choices were possible
 was the divide between East and West.

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‣‣ Eastern Ukraine leans towards Russia.
   Western Ukraine leans towards Europe.

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‣‣ Yanukovych's fraudulent victory was seen
   as a sign of Russian interference.

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‣‣ Westerners did not want to see their
   political victory stolen by the Russians.

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‣ The other major reason these choices were
 possible was the influence of the West.

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‣‣ The protesters were helped by foreign
   NGOs who helped them organize.

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‣‣ The Supreme Court was counseled on
   elections by legal experts from the U.S.

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‣‣ The obvious fraud cut off any legitimacy
   Kuchma might have had if he denied it.

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The Orange Revolution was possible because
a small group of people had efficacy.

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How did Ukraine overcome its problems to
move gingerly towards democracy?

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By the finding an issue that demanded their
attention and getting help from the outside.

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In the short-term, Ukraine made a sudden
and unexpected turn towards democracy.

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In the long-term, the success of the Orange
Revolution is still being evaluated.

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Post-Soviet Ukraine