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Global Warming<br />AngpagbabagokayangklimadahilsakagagawanngtaoangsiyangsumirasaPlanetangDaigdig?<br />By Dale Robert B. ...
Pangganyak<br />Painitbangpainitangmundo?<br />Kung gayon, anoangdahilannito?<br />Anoangmagagawa mo paramapigilanito?<br ...
KasaysayanngKlimangMundo<br />Nabuoangmundo may ~4.6 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan<br />Napakainitnitonoongunangpanahon<br />...
KasaysayanngKlimangMundo<br />Angunangbagaynabuhay ay lumabas may ~3.8 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan.<br />“Photosynthesis” a...
Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Radiative<br />Cooling<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Radiative<br />Cooling<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Radiative<br />Cooling<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
Greenhouse Effect<br />Sun<br />
Earth’s Atmospheric Gases<br />Nitrogen (N2)<br />Oxygen (O2)<br />Argon (Ar)<br />Water (H2O)<br />Carbon Dioxide (CO2)<b...
Sun<br />Runaway Greenhouse Effect<br />Venus<br />97% carbon dioxide<br />3% nitrogen<br />Water & sulfuric acid clouds<b...
Carbon Dioxide<br />
Carbon Dioxide Levels<br />Muana Loa Readings<br />CO2 Levels Since 1958<br />370<br />350<br />CO2 (ppm) <br />330<br />3...
Worldwide Carbon Emissions<br />Total<br />Liquid fuel<br />Solid fuel<br />Gas fuel<br />8<br />7<br />6<br />5<br />Carb...
Annual Carbon Emissions<br />Annual carbon emissions<br />Atmospheric CO2<br />Atmospheric CO2 average<br />8<br />6<br />...
Future Carbon Dioxide Levels<br />Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries<br />Likely to do...
Kyoto Protocol<br />Adopted in 1997<br />Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012<br />Symbolic only, since ...
Past Temperatures<br />
Recorded Worldwide Temperatures<br />Decreasing<br />Flat<br />Flat<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />D Mean Temper...
Winter Temperatures<br />Summer Temperatures<br />Annual Temperatures<br />17<br />25<br />22<br />21<br />16<br />24<br /...
-4.1<br />-4<br />-2<br />-1<br />-.5<br />-.2<br />.2<br />.5<br />1<br />2<br />4<br />4.1<br />2009 Temperature Changes...
Past Temperatures Measurement<br />Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)<br />Tr...
Temperature History of the Earth<br />Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler <br />Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C ...
Main Ocean Currents<br />Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2<br />
Temperature History of the Earth<br />For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cyc...
Orbital Parameters: Precession<br />Perihelion<br />Apehelion<br />
Orbital Parameters: Obliquity<br />22.5°<br />24.5°<br />
Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity<br />Perihelion<br />Apehelion<br />Apehelion<br />Maximum: 0.061<br />Minimum: 0.005<br ...
Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate<br />Precession(22 ky)<br />Obliquity(41 ky)<br />Eccentricity(100 ky)<br />Temperatu...
Temperature History of the Earth<br />For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cyc...
Younger Dryas Event<br />YoungerDryas<br />Medieval Warm<br />Ice Age<br />Little Ice Age<br />-25<br />0.35<br />-30<br /...
Younger Dryas Event<br />-34<br />-8.0<br />YoungerDryas<br />-35<br />-7.5<br />-36<br />-7.0<br />-37<br />-6.5<br />-38...
Temperature History of the Earth<br />Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)<br />Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.<...
Temperature History of the Earth<br />Eocene (41 million years ago)<br />Opening of the Drake Passage (between South Ameri...
Temperature History of the Earth<br />Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)<br />Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C<br />Cau...
Temperature History of the Earth<br />Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)<br />Much warmer<br />Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland...
A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records<br />6000<br />5000<br />4000<br />Atmospheric CO2<br />Concentration...
Recent Temperature Changes<br />
“Hockey Stick” Controversy<br />0.6<br />Direct temperature measurements<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />0<br...
The Problem with Tree Rings<br />0.3<br />Jones et al. 1998<br />Briffa et al. 1999<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />0.2<br />0....
What Influences Tree Rings?<br />Temperature<br />Rainfall<br />Carbon dioxide concentration<br />
2<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />Esper et al. 2002<br />1<br />0<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />-1<br />-2<br />800<br />10...
Is the Hockey Stick Correct?<br />Medieval Warm Period<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />Esper et al. 2002<br />Moberg et al. 200...
U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006<br />“high level of confidence”<br />“2:1 chance of being right”<br />0.6<br ...
Troposphere<br />Stratosphere<br />0.8<br />1.5<br />0.6<br />1.0<br />0.4<br />0.5<br />0.2<br />Temperature Cgange (°C)<...
CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature<br />370<br />320<br />31<br />30<br />SST (°C) Tropical Pacific<br />CO2 (ppm) Antarcti...
Consequences of Global Warming<br />
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere<br />Northern vs. Southern Latitude<br />Land vs. Ocean<br />1.0<...
-4.1<br />-4<br />-2<br />-1<br />-.5<br />-.2<br />.2<br />.5<br />1<br />2<br />4<br />4.1<br />2009 Temperature Changes...
Ice Sheets Melting?<br />GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of...
Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro<br />
1000<br />800<br />600<br />400<br />200<br />Ice Mass (km3)<br />0<br />-200<br />-400<br />-600<br />2004<br />2003<br /...
Rise in Sea Levels?<br />Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)<br />Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/...
Changing Sea Levels<br />Global Temperature Change<br />20<br />10<br />0<br />Relative Sea Level (cm)<br />-10<br />Amste...
31<br />20<br />Sea Levels for 450,000 Years<br />0<br />30<br />-20<br />29<br />-40<br />Sea Level (m)<br />28<br />SST ...
Increase in Hurricanes?<br />15<br />Data Unreliable<br />10<br />SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)<br />5<br />Scaled August-Octobe...
How Much Temperature Increase?<br />Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century<br />Two studies put the minimum a...
Wildlife Effects<br />Polar Bears<br />Require pack ice to live<br />Might eventually go extinct in the wild<br />Sea turt...
Effect on Humans<br />Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat<br />Decreased thermohaline circulation<br />Cooler temperatu...
-50<br />-20<br />-10<br />-5<br />5<br />10<br />20<br />50<br />Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes<br />
Drought in Africa<br />Lake Faguibine<br />Lake Chad<br />
Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations<br />1800<br />1600<br />1400<br />1200<br />1000<br />Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)<b...
Possible Solutions to Global Warming<br />
Mitigation of Global Warming<br />Conservation<br />Reduce energy needs<br />Recycling<br />Alternate energy sources<br />...
Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations<br />Depleted oil and gas reservoirs<br />CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery<br ...
Global Warming Myths<br />
1366.8<br />1366.6<br />1366.4<br />1366.2<br />1366.0<br />Solar Irradiance (W/m2)<br />1365.8<br />1365.6<br />1365.4<br...
Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning<br />Fossil Fuel<br />Volcanoes<br />10<br />8<br />6<br />Carbon (109...
Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots<br />250<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />200<br />0.4<br />150<br />0.2<br />Sunspots<br />D M...
Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots<br />250<br />1.5<br />1.0<br />200<br />0.0<br />150<br />Sunspots<br />D Mean Temperatu...
4600<br />4400<br />4200<br />4000<br />3800<br />Gamma Cosmic Rays<br />3600<br />3400<br />3200<br />3000<br />Global Wa...
CO2 Vs. Sea Level<br />CO2 Vs. Temperature<br />40<br />320<br />6<br />20<br />4<br />300<br />0<br />2<br />280<br />-20...
-4.1<br />-4<br />-2<br />-1<br />-.5<br />-.2<br />.2<br />.5<br />1<br />2<br />4<br />4.1<br />Global Warming is Due to...
Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming<br />
Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere<br />Land vs. Ocean<br />Land<br />Ocean<br />1920<br />1960<br /...
Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?<br />Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)<br />Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± ...
Changing Sea Levels<br />Global Temperature Change<br />20<br />10<br />0<br />Relative Sea Level (cm)<br />-10<br />Amste...
How Much Temperature Increase?<br />Global warming alarmists propose up to 9°C increase this century<br />Two studies put ...
Predictions Vs. Reality<br />1.5<br />Annual Mean  Global  Temperature  Change<br />1.0<br />DT (°C)<br />0.5<br />0<br />...
Temperature Extrapolation<br />2.5<br />2.0<br />1.5<br />DT (°C)<br />1.0<br />0.5<br />0<br />-0.4<br />2040<br />2060<b...
Conclusions<br />Global warming is happening<br />Most warming is probably the result of human activities<br />There will ...
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  1. 1. Global Warming<br />AngpagbabagokayangklimadahilsakagagawanngtaoangsiyangsumirasaPlanetangDaigdig?<br />By Dale Robert B. Caoili<br />Makabayan 4<br />
  2. 2. Pangganyak<br />Painitbangpainitangmundo?<br />Kung gayon, anoangdahilannito?<br />Anoangmagagawa mo paramapigilanito?<br />Angmgapotensyalnasolusyonba ay sapatupanggastusan at mapigilanang “Global Warming”? <br />
  3. 3. KasaysayanngKlimangMundo<br />Nabuoangmundo may ~4.6 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan<br />Napakainitnitonoongunangpanahon<br />AnginilalabasnaenerhiyangAraw noon ay 70% lamangngkasalukuyan.<br />Halos tubigangbuongplanetanoong~4.3 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan<br />Angmalakingporsyentongkasaysayanngplaneta ay naburanoongsunod-sunod pa angpagbagsakngmgabulalakawsalupa(~3.9 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan)<br />
  4. 4. KasaysayanngKlimangMundo<br />Angunangbagaynabuhay ay lumabas may ~3.8 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan.<br />“Photosynthesis” ay nagsimula3.5-2.5 bilyongtaonnaangnakararaan.<br />Naglabasitong oxygen at tinaggalangcarbon dioxide at methane (greenhouse gases)<br />AngDaigdig ay dumaansaPanahonngGrabengPaglamig(“Snowball Earth”) at Pag-init<br />AngDaigdig ay nagsimulangmgaPanahonngglacial at interglacial may ~3 milyongtaonnaangnakararaan.<br />
  5. 5. Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
  6. 6. Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Radiative<br />Cooling<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
  7. 7. Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Radiative<br />Cooling<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
  8. 8. Sun<br />Solar<br />Energy<br />Radiative<br />Cooling<br />Earth’s Temperature<br />
  9. 9. Greenhouse Effect<br />Sun<br />
  10. 10. Earth’s Atmospheric Gases<br />Nitrogen (N2)<br />Oxygen (O2)<br />Argon (Ar)<br />Water (H2O)<br />Carbon Dioxide (CO2)<br />Methane (CH4)<br />Non-Greenhouse<br />Gases<br />>99%<br />Greenhouse<br />Gases<br /><1%<br />
  11. 11. Sun<br />Runaway Greenhouse Effect<br />Venus<br />97% carbon dioxide<br />3% nitrogen<br />Water & sulfuric acid clouds<br />Temperature:860°F<br />
  12. 12. Carbon Dioxide<br />
  13. 13. Carbon Dioxide Levels<br />Muana Loa Readings<br />CO2 Levels Since 1958<br />370<br />350<br />CO2 (ppm) <br />330<br />310<br />10<br />20<br />30<br />40<br />0<br />420<br />370<br />320<br />CO2 (ppm) <br />270<br />220<br />Vostok Ice Core<br />Dome Concordia<br />170<br />200000<br />400000<br />600000<br />0<br />Time (YBP)<br />
  14. 14. Worldwide Carbon Emissions<br />Total<br />Liquid fuel<br />Solid fuel<br />Gas fuel<br />8<br />7<br />6<br />5<br />Carbon (109 metric tons)<br />4<br />3<br />2<br />1<br />0<br />1750<br />1800<br />1850<br />1900<br />1950<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  15. 15. Annual Carbon Emissions<br />Annual carbon emissions<br />Atmospheric CO2<br />Atmospheric CO2 average<br />8<br />6<br />Carbon (109 metric tons)<br />4<br />2<br />0<br />1955<br />1965<br />1975<br />1985<br />1995<br />2005<br />Year<br />
  16. 16. Future Carbon Dioxide Levels<br />Increasing CO2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries<br />Likely to double within 150 years:<br />Increased coal usage<br />Increased natural gas usage<br />Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply)<br />
  17. 17. Kyoto Protocol<br />Adopted in 1997<br />Cut CO2 emissions by 5% from 1990 levels for 2008-2012<br />Symbolic only, since cuts will not significantly impact global warming<br />
  18. 18. Past Temperatures<br />
  19. 19. Recorded Worldwide Temperatures<br />Decreasing<br />Flat<br />Flat<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />D Mean Temperature (°C)<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />-0.6<br />1880<br />1900<br />1920<br />1940<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  20. 20. Winter Temperatures<br />Summer Temperatures<br />Annual Temperatures<br />17<br />25<br />22<br />21<br />16<br />24<br />20<br />15<br />23<br />19<br />14<br />22<br />Temperature (°C)<br />18<br />13<br />21<br />17<br />12<br />20<br />16<br />11<br />19<br />15<br />10<br />18<br />1880<br />1900<br />1920<br />1940<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />1880<br />1900<br />1920<br />1940<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />1880<br />1900<br />1920<br />1940<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />Year<br />Year<br />Year<br />Historic Los Angeles Temperatures<br />
  21. 21. -4.1<br />-4<br />-2<br />-1<br />-.5<br />-.2<br />.2<br />.5<br />1<br />2<br />4<br />4.1<br />2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980<br />2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980<br />
  22. 22. Past Temperatures Measurement<br />Proxy – a method that approximates a particular measurement (e.g., temperature)<br />Tree rings<br />Ice cores<br />Pollen records<br />Plant macrofossils<br />Sr/Ca isotope data<br />Oxygen isotopes from speleothem calcite (stalactites and stalagmites) <br />
  23. 23. Temperature History of the Earth<br />Little ice age (1400-1840) – 1°C cooler <br />Medieval warm period (800-1300) – 1°C warmer than today<br />Cool/warm cycles occur ~1,500 years<br />Affect mostly Northeastern U.S. and North Atlantic<br />Mostly due to changes in thermohaline circulation <br />Dramatic shutdown of thermohaline circulation occurred 8,200 years ago as a large lake in Canada flooded the North Atlantic<br />
  24. 24. Main Ocean Currents<br />Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 4-2<br />
  25. 25. Temperature History of the Earth<br />For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods<br />These climate periods are largely the result of cycles in the earth’s orbit – precession, obliquity, and eccentricity<br />
  26. 26. Orbital Parameters: Precession<br />Perihelion<br />Apehelion<br />
  27. 27. Orbital Parameters: Obliquity<br />22.5°<br />24.5°<br />
  28. 28. Orbital Parameters: Eccentricity<br />Perihelion<br />Apehelion<br />Apehelion<br />Maximum: 0.061<br />Minimum: 0.005<br />Not to scale!<br />To Scale!<br />
  29. 29. Orbital Parameters & Earth’s Climate<br />Precession(22 ky)<br />Obliquity(41 ky)<br />Eccentricity(100 ky)<br />Temperature<br />1000<br />900<br />800<br />700<br />600<br />500<br />400<br />300<br />200<br />100<br />0<br />Age (kya)<br />
  30. 30. Temperature History of the Earth<br />For the past 3 million years, the earth has been experiencing ~100,000 year long cycles of glaciation followed by ~10,000 year long interglacial periods<br />Last ice age began to thaw 15,000 years ago, but was interrupted by the “Younger Dryas” event 12,900 years ago<br />
  31. 31. Younger Dryas Event<br />YoungerDryas<br />Medieval Warm<br />Ice Age<br />Little Ice Age<br />-25<br />0.35<br />-30<br />0.30<br />-35<br />0.25<br />Snow Accumulation (m/yr)<br />-40<br />0.20<br />Temperature (°C)<br />-45<br />0.15<br />-50<br />0.10<br />-55<br />0.05<br />0<br />5<br />10<br />15<br />20<br />Age (kya)<br />
  32. 32. Younger Dryas Event<br />-34<br />-8.0<br />YoungerDryas<br />-35<br />-7.5<br />-36<br />-7.0<br />-37<br />-6.5<br />-38<br />-39<br />-6.0<br />d18O (Greenland)<br />d18O (China)<br />-40<br />-5.5<br />-41<br />-5.0<br />-42<br />-4.5<br />-43<br />-44<br />-4.0<br />10<br />11<br />12<br />13<br />14<br />15<br />16<br />Age (kya)<br />
  33. 33. Temperature History of the Earth<br />Middle Pliocene (3.15 to 2.85 million ya)<br />Temperatures: 2°C higher than today.<br />20°C higher at high latitudes<br />1°C higher at the Equator<br />Sea levels were 100 ft higher<br />Causes<br />CO2 levels that were 100 ppm higher<br />Increased thermohaline circulation<br />
  34. 34. Temperature History of the Earth<br />Eocene (41 million years ago)<br />Opening of the Drake Passage (between South America and Antarctica).<br />Increased ocean current exchange<br />Strong global cooling <br />First permanent glaciation of Antarctica ~34 million years ago<br />
  35. 35. Temperature History of the Earth<br />Paleocene Thermal Maximum (55 mya)<br />Sea surface temperatures rose 5-8°C<br />Causes<br />Increased volcanism<br />Rapid release of methane from the oceans<br />
  36. 36. Temperature History of the Earth<br />Mid-Cretaceous (120-90 mya)<br />Much warmer<br />Breadfruit trees grew in Greenland<br />Causes<br />Different ocean currents (continental arrangement)<br />higher CO2 levels (at least 2 to 4 times higher than today, up to 1200 ppm)<br />
  37. 37. A Compilation of Phanerozoic Atmospheric CO2 Records<br />6000<br />5000<br />4000<br />Atmospheric CO2<br />Concentration (ppmV)<br />3000<br />2000<br />1000<br />0<br />30<br />60<br />Continental Glaciation<br />(Paleolatitude)<br />90<br />S<br />D<br />Carb<br />P<br />Tr<br />J<br />K<br />Pg<br />Ng<br />Paleozoic<br />Mesozoic<br />Cenozoic<br />400<br />300<br />200<br />100<br />0<br />Breecker D O et al. PNAS 2010;107:576-580<br />
  38. 38. Recent Temperature Changes<br />
  39. 39. “Hockey Stick” Controversy<br />0.6<br />Direct temperature measurements<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />0<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />-0.6<br />-0.8<br />1000<br />1200<br />1400<br />1600<br />1800<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  40. 40. The Problem with Tree Rings<br />0.3<br />Jones et al. 1998<br />Briffa et al. 1999<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />0.2<br />0.1<br />0<br />-0.1<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />-0.2<br />-0.3<br />-0.4<br />-0.5<br />-0.6<br />1000<br />1200<br />1400<br />1600<br />1800<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  41. 41. What Influences Tree Rings?<br />Temperature<br />Rainfall<br />Carbon dioxide concentration<br />
  42. 42. 2<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />Esper et al. 2002<br />1<br />0<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />-1<br />-2<br />800<br />1000<br />1200<br />1400<br />1600<br />1800<br />2000<br />Year<br />Is the Hockey Stick Correct?<br />
  43. 43. Is the Hockey Stick Correct?<br />Medieval Warm Period<br />Mann et al. 1999<br />Esper et al. 2002<br />Moberg et al. 2005<br />Mann et al. 2008<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />-0.6<br />-0.8<br />-1.0<br />-1.2<br />0<br />400<br />800<br />1200<br />1600<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  44. 44. U.S. National Academy of Sciences: June 2006<br />“high level of confidence”<br />“2:1 chance of being right”<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />0<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />-0.6<br />-0.8<br />1000<br />1200<br />1400<br />1600<br />1800<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  45. 45. Troposphere<br />Stratosphere<br />0.8<br />1.5<br />0.6<br />1.0<br />0.4<br />0.5<br />0.2<br />Temperature Cgange (°C)<br />0.0<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />-0.5<br />-0.4<br />-0.6<br />-1.0<br />1980<br />1990<br />2000<br />1980<br />1990<br />2000<br />Year<br />Year<br />Atmospheric Temperatures<br />
  46. 46. CO2 Concentration Vs. Temperature<br />370<br />320<br />31<br />30<br />SST (°C) Tropical Pacific<br />CO2 (ppm) Antarctica <br />270<br />29<br />28<br />220<br />27<br />26<br />170<br />25<br />0<br />200000<br />400000<br />600000<br />Time (YBP)<br />
  47. 47. Consequences of Global Warming<br />
  48. 48. Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere<br />Northern vs. Southern Latitude<br />Land vs. Ocean<br />1.0<br />Land<br />Ocean<br />Northern Hemisphere<br />Southern Hemisphere<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />-0.6<br />1920<br />1960<br />2000<br />1920<br />1960<br />2000<br />Year<br />Year<br />
  49. 49. -4.1<br />-4<br />-2<br />-1<br />-.5<br />-.2<br />.2<br />.5<br />1<br />2<br />4<br />4.1<br />2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980<br />
  50. 50. Ice Sheets Melting?<br />GRACE (gravity measured by satellite) found melting of Antarctica equivalent to sea level rise of 0.4 mm/year (2 in/century)<br />Zwally, 2005 (satellite radar altimetry) <br />confirmed Antarctica melting<br />Greenland ice melting onexterior, accumulating inland(higher precipitation)<br />
  51. 51. Melting Glaciers – Mt. Kilimanjaro<br />
  52. 52. 1000<br />800<br />600<br />400<br />200<br />Ice Mass (km3)<br />0<br />-200<br />-400<br />-600<br />2004<br />2003<br />2005<br />Year<br />Changes in Antarctica Ice Mass <br />
  53. 53. Rise in Sea Levels?<br />Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)<br />Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2<br />If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise<br />Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic<br />
  54. 54. Changing Sea Levels<br />Global Temperature Change<br />20<br />10<br />0<br />Relative Sea Level (cm)<br />-10<br />Amsterdam, Netherlands<br />Brest, France<br />Swinoujscie, Poland<br />-20<br />1700<br />1750<br />1800<br />1850<br />1900<br />1950<br />2000<br />Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5<br />
  55. 55. 31<br />20<br />Sea Levels for 450,000 Years<br />0<br />30<br />-20<br />29<br />-40<br />Sea Level (m)<br />28<br />SST (°C) Tropical Pacific<br />-60<br />27<br />-80<br />26<br />-100<br />-120<br />25<br />450<br />400<br />350<br />300<br />250<br />200<br />150<br />100<br />50<br />0<br />Time (KYBP)<br />
  56. 56. Increase in Hurricanes?<br />15<br />Data Unreliable<br />10<br />SST/SPDI (meters3/sec2)<br />5<br />Scaled August-OctoberSea-Surface Temperature<br />Adjusted Atlantic StormPower Dissipation Index<br />0<br />1860<br />1880<br />1900<br />1920<br />1940<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />2020<br />Two studies showed the total number of hurricanes has not changed<br />However, the intensity of hurricanes has increased (more category 4 and 5 hurricanes and cyclones)<br />Probably due to higher sea surface temperatures (more energy)<br />Difficult to know if this trend will continue<br />
  57. 57. How Much Temperature Increase?<br />Some models propose up to 9°C increase this century<br />Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C<br />Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C<br />
  58. 58. Wildlife Effects<br />Polar Bears<br />Require pack ice to live<br />Might eventually go extinct in the wild<br />Sea turtles<br />Breed on the same islands astheir birth<br />Could go extinct on some islandsas beaches are flooded<br />Other species may go extinct as rainfall patterns change throughout the world<br />
  59. 59. Effect on Humans<br />Fewer deaths from cold, more from heat<br />Decreased thermohaline circulation<br />Cooler temperatures in North Atlantic<br />CO2 fertilization effect<br />Precipitation changes<br />Droughts and famine (some areas)<br />Expanded arable land in Canada, Soviet Union<br />
  60. 60. -50<br />-20<br />-10<br />-5<br />5<br />10<br />20<br />50<br />Potential Worldwide Precipitation Changes<br />
  61. 61. Drought in Africa<br />Lake Faguibine<br />Lake Chad<br />
  62. 62. Cost to Stabilize CO2 Concentrations<br />1800<br />1600<br />1400<br />1200<br />1000<br />Cost (Trillons U.S. Dollars)<br />800<br />600<br />400<br />200<br />0<br />450<br />550<br />650<br />750<br />Carbon Dioxide (ppm)<br />
  63. 63. Possible Solutions to Global Warming<br />
  64. 64. Mitigation of Global Warming<br />Conservation<br />Reduce energy needs<br />Recycling<br />Alternate energy sources<br />Nuclear<br />Wind<br />Geothermal<br />Hydroelectric<br />Solar<br />Fusion?<br />
  65. 65. Storage of CO2 in Geological Formations<br />Depleted oil and gas reservoirs<br />CO2 in enhanced oil and gas recovery<br />Deep saline formations – (a) offshore (b) onshore<br />CO2 in enhanced coal bed methane recovery<br />4<br />1<br />3b<br />3a<br />2<br />Adapted from IPCC SRCCS Figure TS-7<br />
  66. 66. Global Warming Myths<br />
  67. 67. 1366.8<br />1366.6<br />1366.4<br />1366.2<br />1366.0<br />Solar Irradiance (W/m2)<br />1365.8<br />1365.6<br />1365.4<br />1365.2<br />Global Warming Has Stopped?<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />D Mean Temperature (°C)<br />0.2<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />1975<br />1980<br />1985<br />1990<br />1995<br />2000<br />2005<br />2010<br />Year<br />
  68. 68. Volcanoes Put Out More CO2 Than Fossil Fuel Burning<br />Fossil Fuel<br />Volcanoes<br />10<br />8<br />6<br />Carbon (109 metric tons)<br />4<br />2<br />0<br />
  69. 69. Global Warming is Caused by Sunspots<br />250<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />200<br />0.4<br />150<br />0.2<br />Sunspots<br />D Mean Temperature (°C)<br />0.0<br />100<br />-0.2<br />50<br />-0.4<br />0<br />-0.6<br />1880<br />1900<br />1920<br />1940<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  70. 70. Hadley Temperatures Vs. Sunspots<br />250<br />1.5<br />1.0<br />200<br />0.0<br />150<br />Sunspots<br />D Mean Temperature (°C)<br />-0.5<br />100<br />-1.0<br />50<br />-1.5<br />-2.0<br />0<br />1750<br />1800<br />1850<br />1900<br />1950<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  71. 71. 4600<br />4400<br />4200<br />4000<br />3800<br />Gamma Cosmic Rays<br />3600<br />3400<br />3200<br />3000<br />Global Warming is Caused by GCR<br />1.0<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />D Mean Temperature (°C)<br />0.2<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />1950<br />1960<br />1970<br />1980<br />1990<br />2000<br />2010<br />Year<br />
  72. 72. CO2 Vs. Sea Level<br />CO2 Vs. Temperature<br />40<br />320<br />6<br />20<br />4<br />300<br />0<br />2<br />280<br />-20<br />0<br />260<br />CO2(ppmv)<br />-40<br />-2<br />Relative Sea Level<br />Temperature<br />240<br />-60<br />-4<br />220<br />-80<br />-6<br />200<br />-100<br />-8<br />-120<br />-10<br />180<br />0<br />100000<br />200000<br />300000<br />400000<br />500000<br />Time (ybp)<br />Rohling et al. 2009. Antarctic temperature and global sea level closely coupled over the last five glacial cycles. Nature Geoscience 2:500.<br />
  73. 73. -4.1<br />-4<br />-2<br />-1<br />-.5<br />-.2<br />.2<br />.5<br />1<br />2<br />4<br />4.1<br />Global Warming is Due to Urban Heat Islands<br />2009 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980<br />
  74. 74. Mt. Kilimanjaro’ Glaciers are Melting Because of Global Warming<br />
  75. 75. Global Warming Primarily Impacts the Northern Hemisphere<br />Land vs. Ocean<br />Land<br />Ocean<br />1920<br />1960<br />2000<br />Year<br />Northern vs. Southern Latitude<br />1.0<br />Northern Hemisphere<br />Southern Hemisphere<br />0.8<br />0.6<br />0.4<br />0.2<br />Temperature Change (°C)<br />0.0<br />-0.2<br />-0.4<br />-0.6<br />1920<br />1960<br />2000<br />Year<br />
  76. 76. Sea Levels Will Rise 5-6 ft?<br />Present rate is 1.8 ± 0.3 mm/yr (7.4 in/century)<br />Accelerating at a rate of 0.013 ± 0.006 mm/yr2<br />If acceleration continues, could result in 12 in/century sea level rise<br />Scenarios claiming 1 meter or more rise are unrealistic<br />Recently, the California State Lands Commission said that sea levels could rise 55 inches this century, inundating ports<br />
  77. 77. Changing Sea Levels<br />Global Temperature Change<br />20<br />10<br />0<br />Relative Sea Level (cm)<br />-10<br />Amsterdam, Netherlands<br />Brest, France<br />Swinoujscie, Poland<br />-20<br />1700<br />1750<br />1800<br />1850<br />1900<br />1950<br />2000<br />Adapted from IPCC SYR Figure 2-5<br />
  78. 78. How Much Temperature Increase?<br />Global warming alarmists propose up to 9°C increase this century<br />Two studies put the minimum at 1.5°C and maximum at 4.5°C or 6.2°C<br />Another study puts the minimum at 2.5°C<br />
  79. 79. Predictions Vs. Reality<br />1.5<br />Annual Mean Global Temperature Change<br />1.0<br />DT (°C)<br />0.5<br />0<br />OBSERVED<br />SCENARIO A<br />SCENARIO B<br />SCENARIO C<br />-0.4<br />1960<br />1970<br />1980<br />1990<br />2000<br />2010<br />2019<br />Date<br />Exponential Increase in carbon emissions<br />Moderate reduction in carbon emissions<br />Drastic reduction in carbon emissions<br />Observed temps through 1988<br />Hansen, J. 1988. Journal Of Geophysical Research 93:9241.<br />
  80. 80. Temperature Extrapolation<br />2.5<br />2.0<br />1.5<br />DT (°C)<br />1.0<br />0.5<br />0<br />-0.4<br />2040<br />2060<br />2080<br />2100<br />1960<br />1980<br />2000<br />2020<br />Date<br />
  81. 81. Conclusions<br />Global warming is happening<br />Most warming is probably the result of human activities<br />There will be positive and negative (mostly) repercussions from global warming<br />The costs to mitigate global warming will be high – better spent elsewhere?<br />
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