Mobile Wars - Rich Sands at ProductCamp Boston, April 2011

MobileWars

“open”
“closed”
Open source
Fragmented
Integrated
Proprietary
Flexible hardware
Restricted hardware
Few/One OEM
Many OEMs
Operator differentiation
Operator consistency
Many UXs
One UX
One restrictive app store
Several freewheeling app stores
API freedom
API control
3rd party execution engines
3rd party execution forbidden
Operators control UX
OEM controls UX
Optimized for end users
Optimized for developers
Good for content producers
Good for content consumers
Broad distribution
Narrow distribution
High volume
Low volume
Low margin
High margin
Cheap
Expensive
Design
Technology
Desire driven
Price driven
Android
Windows Phone
BlackBerry
iOS

Is share a good metric? Why or why not?

“But the fact of the matter is that if we were to put those type of restrictions on an open source product, we’d be violating the principle of open source.”
Eric Schmidt in response to a question on why Google doesn’t force operators and OEMs to offer a “pure” Android experience, upgrade their phones on a predictable schedule, etc.

“We think the open vs. closed is just a smokescreen to try and hide the real issue, which is: What's best for the customer? Fragmented vs. integrated? We think Android is very very fragmented and becoming more fragmented by the day.”
Steve Jobs on the problems with Android, during Apple’s Q4 2010 earnings call.

Andy Rubin’s first tweet, in response to Steve’s comment.

“To make our schedule to ship the tablet, we made some design tradeoffs. We didn't want to think about what it would take for the same software to run on phones ... So we took a shortcut.”
Andy Rubin on why Google is holding back releasing Android Honeycomb to open source.

“Playtime is over in Android Land. …From now on, companies hoping to receive early access to Google's most up-to-date software will need approval of their plans. And they will seek that approval from Andy Rubin, the head of Google's Android group.”
- Bloomberg Businessweek, March 30, 2011

Android devices version distribution.
Source: Google, March 15, 2011

“With our latest update, we worked hard to bring Angry Birds to even more Android devices. Despite our efforts, we were unsuccessful in delivering optimal performance.”
-- Rovio Mobile Blog

Source: Canalys

Is “open” always good? When can it be bad? Can or should Google impose control on its ecosystem?

“…an Apple-imposed arrangement that requires us to pay 30 percent of our revenue to Apple, in addition to content fees that we pay to the music labels, publishers and artists, is economically untenable.”
-- Rhapsody Music Service

“I have only one major complaint with the App Store, and I can state it quite simply: the review process needs to be eliminated completely.”
-- Joe Hewitt, FaceBookdeveloper

“Ultimately, deciding to buy an iPhone is all about buying into Apple's vision of the one perfect smart phone. Android, by contrast, is about finding the right smart phone for you. Want a phone with a real QWERTY keyboard or a jumbo-size screen? Sorry, iPhone no can do — but Android can.”
-- Harry McCracken, Technologizer

iPad 2 lines, NYC, March 11, 2011 (engadget)

When does choice trump design? How can you tell in your own markets?

“Let's just get it out of the way: Windows Phone 7 is the most exciting thing to happen to phones in a long time.”
-- Gizmodo, October 20, 2010

“It’s a big win for Microsoft today. Windows Phone 7 is no one’s priority. But now Microsoft has a leading vendor committed to use the platform. For Nokia, the big question is how quickly can the company execute on this. That has been one of the major issues.”
-- Pete Cunningham, Canalys

Feb 21: First Update to Windows Phone 7 – “only” 10% failure rate.
Mar 2: Restarted update has more problems.
Mar 10: “NoDo” copy/paste update delayed to late Mar.
Mar 26: Joe Belfiore video blog claims “getting updates out”, causing a storm of protest.
Mar 27: Apology – “I wasn’t as prepared for this interview as I should have been….”
Apr 1: “NoDo” starts to roll out, but not to AT&T customers – waiting for “testing” to complete.
“I believe that Microsoft screwed the poochif they have allowed the carrier enough leewayin the update process to adversely affect WP7
customers.” -- James Kendrick, ZDNet

WP7 beats iOS? How did Microsoft get IDC to say that?!!

What can Microsoft do to stem the bleeding from their update botch? How can they control operators while still being “operator friendly”?

So, who is right?
Who will win?
What can we learn?
Lets talk!

Questions To Consider
How does Apple’s model benefit developers? End users?
Google help developers? Users?
What is the role of the operator in Apple’s ecosystem? Google’s? Microsoft’s
What advantages do Microsoft/Nokia and RIM bring vs. Apple and Google?
What matters most to end users? Which ecosystem best delivers?
What about HP/Palm? What can they do to get back in the battle?
What if Google forks Android into phone and tablet variants?
Apple is buying 60% of 2011 world touchscreen LCD capacity. Does any of this even matter?
What did Apple do right with the iPad 2 launch? Do wrong?
What can the Androids do to fight the iPad inevitability meme? RIM, HP, Microsoft?
If you were Verizon’s consumer plan PM, what would you do to increase 3-year share and ARPU?
What do Apple’s rumored programmable SIM and real-time service auction patent bode for operators?

Rich Sands
http://RSandsConsulting.com
Email: rich@RSandsConsulting.com
Twitter: @richsands

Mobile Wars - Rich Sands at ProductCamp Boston, April 2011

by ProductCamp Boston on Apr 04, 2011

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Mobile Wars - Rich Sands at ProductCamp Boston, April 2011 — Presentation Transcript