The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in ESA region by Dr. Stephen Twomlow

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The Learning Route on Natural Resource Management and Climate Change Adaptation best practices, the experience in Kenya; took place between the 6-13 July 2014 in several counties in Kenya.

The objective of this learning route is to scale up through peer to peer learning the Kenyan best multi stakeholders' strategies, tools and practices to fight environmental degradation and to adapt to climate change with the aim of improving the livelihoods of people living in affected communities.

The learning Route has been developed by International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) CARE (relief agency) in Kenya and the Cgiar Research Program on Climate Change & Food Security, in partnership with Procasur Africa.

Here we have the introduction presentation on the challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in East and Southern Africa (ESA region) by Dr. Stephen Twomlow who is IFAD's Climate and Environment Specialist for East and Southern Africa ( ESA)

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The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in ESA region by Dr. Stephen Twomlow

  1. 1. Climate and the Environment in ESA The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in ESA region
  2. 2. Outline • What is climate change • Climate change in ESA regions • Adaptation interventions
  3. 3. Climate change: Is it happening? The Global Climate System
  4. 4. Climate change: Is it happening? The Greenhouse effect 4
  5. 5. Natural Climate Fluctuations – Example of El Niño and La Niña Source: NOAA. Further information: WMO Website
  6. 6. Climate change: Is it happening? Anthropogenic Greenhouse gases - Agriculture 6
  7. 7. Climate change: Is it happening? The Greenhouse effect
  8. 8. Climate overview Global Observing System
  9. 9. 1.5º 6º Fact #1: The climatic context for agriculture is changing rapidly
  10. 10. Sea level rise: Fastest recorded rise in the 1990s (4mm/yr) Decline of glaciers and arctic sea ice 2000-2010: Hottest decade on record Fact #2: These changes are more than ‘future music’. They are real, and they are happening now.
  11. 11. Climate Change buzzwords and fuzzwords
  12. 12. Climate Change and Global Warming Global Warming Refers to the overall warming of the planet, based on average temperature over the entire surface of the Earth Climate Change Refers to changes in climate characteristics, including temperature, humidity, rainfall, wind, and severe weather events over long term periods Further information: WMO Website
  13. 13. Climate change: Is it happening? Definition of Key terminologies Weather: the state of the atmosphere at a particular place and time as regards heat, cloudiness, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc. "if the weather's good we can go for a walk“ Synonym of weather: Meteorological & atmospheric conditions Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the “average weather” Climate variability refers to variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as standard deviations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales beyond that of individual weather events. Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer) CLIMATE Weather Weather Weather
  14. 14. Y to  Vulnerability: a condition (based on physical, social, economic and environmental factors) which determines the likelihood and scale of damage from the impact of a particular hazard (= the degree of expected damage from a hazard)  Climate risk: the probability of harmful consequences or expected losses resulting from interactions between climate hazards and vulnerable conditions.  Climate resilience: the ability of a system (household, community, farm, value chain, ecosystem) to anticipate, absorb, accommodate or recover from the effects of a climate shock or stress  Adaptive capacity: the ability of a system to adjust, modify or change its characteristics to moderate potential damage or cope with the consequences of a climate shock or stress. Vulnerability, Risk, Resilience
  15. 15. Climate hazards, shocks and stresses  Climate hazards: Climate phenomena that may result in losses and damages to livelihood systems. Comprised of both shocks and stresses  Climate shocks (climate extremes, extreme weather events): Rapid onset floods, storms, wave surges, rainfall-induced landslides, hailstorms, frost, forest/scrub fires; Slow onset agricultural/ meteorological/hydrological drought, heat waves Some shocks are biologically induced but compounded by climatic factors (pest infestations, water- borne or vector-borne diseases).  Climate stresses: Persistent occurrence of lower-intensity damaging events (soil erosion, degradation of coastal ecosystems, salinization of soils & groundwater, glacial melt, soil evaporation, ocean acidification, species migration, sea level rise)
  16. 16. Two Broad Responses to Climate Changes Actions taken to cut net emissions of greenhouse gases to reduce climate change and to preserve and enhance GHG sinks and reservoirs Actions taken to help cope with changing climate conditions and impacts Mitigation Adaptation Source: UNITARSource: UNEP
  17. 17. Y to Some common climate change ‘fuzzwords’  ‘Climate-smart’: Coined by FAO and WB to describe agricultural systems which a) increase productivity, b) increase resilience to climate change, and c) reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Has raised contention about large-scale industrial agriculture as mitigation ‘business’  To ‘climate-proof’ something: shorthand for protecting investments (e.g. infrastructure) from adverse climatic effects. Problematic, as very little investments in rural development are impervious to climate effects  ‘Natural disasters’: Invokes the notion that nature alone is responsible for climate-related disasters. Disasters are socially constructed - Natural hazards meet with vulnerable conditions. There are root causes for this vulnerability, which development projects need to understand & address.
  18. 18. Different approaches to Adaptation Programming Autonomous Adaptation Based on a set of available technology and management options. Implemented by individuals only if considered cost-effective Planned Adaptation Deliberate actions by local, regional and/or national institutions Decisions are made through modified institutions and incentives, often based on climate risk analysis –WAMPP Lesotho
  19. 19. Increasing infectious, water- borne and vector-borne diseases, heat stress & mortality, additional public health costs PUBLIC HEALTH FORESTRY Changes in forest composition, extent, health & productivity; forest fires WATER RESOURCES Variability in water supply, quality & distribution; growing competition and risks of conflicts; transboundary water management problems COASTAL SYSTEMS Erosion, inundation, salinisation; stress on mangroves, marshes, wetlands ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Loss of habitat, species and protective ecosystems; migratory shifts AGRICULTURE Less predictability in crop yield, changing irrigation demand, growing risk of pest infestations Global warming is not just a problem for agriculture. It impacts on IFAD’s core business in various ways
  20. 20. Climate change: Who is responsible
  21. 21. How will climate change effect these countries? Temperatures are rising (predicted temp change by 2070 – 99) +3.5 +3.8 +3.9 +4 +4.1 +3.25 Extreme weather conditions are becoming more frequent. More rainfall in some areas Less rainfall in others Sea levels are rising The ocean is becoming more acidic IFAD works with 22 countries in ESA. Population 399 million Rural population 70% 43% estimated to be living on less than $1.25/day: IFAD’s mission: Rural Poverty Reduction.
  22. 22. If existing practices continue, what is the expected impact of climate change on Crop Yields? Remember this is a generalization at the regional scale!
  23. 23. This spatial variability map of Southern Zimbabwe shows how monthly rainfall amounts varied considerably over a 25km2 catchment in the month of January 2008. (ICRISAT 2008) There is enormous heterogeneity within each country.
  24. 24. How will climate change affect rural livelihoods? Less ocean resources More shocks Land degradation Lower yields Habitat loss Biodiversity loss Less wildlife Loss of tourist revenue Water stress Loss of assets INCREASE IN POVERTY, INEQUALITY AND VULNERABILITY More pests and diseases How could climate change affect smallholder farmers in ESA? Maladaptation
  25. 25. Rural development increases smallholder resilience to climate risks Climate Change has positive effects on rural development Rural development does not increase (or even reduces) smallholder resilience to climate risks IFAD projects are affecting resilience to climate change (an entry point for improving what we are doing already) IFAD projects are being affected by climate change (a new reality we need to consider in our programming) Climate Change has negative effects on rural development PROTECT CAPITALIZE UPSCALEREDUCE
  26. 26. What do we need to think about as we assess climate change and other environmental challenges? How are climate events interrupting access to markets? How robust is our infrastructure? How sustainable is the use of natural resources in a more hostile climate? What is Plan B for crop failures? No development without adaptive capacity
  27. 27. Physical and Social characteristics of ESA countries that will influence the impact of climate change…. El Nino effect Soil degradation Adaptive capacity Gender inequality Natural resource management Infrastructure Governance Investment Population growth and urbanisation Economic growth and innovation ? 57% 31% 27% 25%
  28. 28. Promising approaches… HELPING PEOPLE MAKE DECISIONS NEW PERSPECTIVES MAKING USE OF CLIMATE FINANCE SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT RISK MANAGEMENT Better data collection and sharing Using local expertise Landscape level and value chain analysis. Context specific planning Focus on adaptive capacity Appreciation of special needs of urban/periurban agriculture Vulnerability analysis Gender analysis and inclusion GIS Water use Soil fertility Agroforestry Maintain biodiversityseed varieties Livelihood diversification
  29. 29. … and the deployment of technologies, resources and capacities to manage them better. Early Warning systems/ Better disaster management Access to better weather information New types of social safety nets Alternative Energy sources Climate resilient crop options More robust / flexible infrastructure Diversified livelihoodsBetter post-harvest protection
  30. 30. Example – Helping people make decisions Participatory scenario planning in Northern Kenya brings together meteorologists, community members, local government departments and NGOs to discuss climate forecasts and prepare jointly for different scenarios. (facilitated by CARE ALP) Photo courtesy of CARE ALP ICT reinforces traditional Maasai adaption strategies in Tanzania (IFAD funded project. Installing a phone tower.. Photo courtesy Mwanzo Millinga, IFAD http://www.ifad.org/climate/regions/esa/index.ht m
  31. 31. Example - New Perspectives Context specific analysis by Agriwaters project identifies identified potential to enhance traditional river diversion schemes in Tanzania. Photo credit. Engineers without borders, USA An IFAD funded project in Madagascar uses a landscape approach to address crosscutting and related issues such as land management and soil erosion and conflicts between farmers and herders. Photos courtesy of IFAD/R Ramasomanana
  32. 32. Example – Tools GIS tools have been used to enhance data sharing for planning and monitoring in IFAD projects in Kenya and Tanzania. Map showing survival rates of trees in reforestation sites in Aberdare and Mt Kenya area (courtesy AWF) ACCRA NGO alliance has developed a framework for assessing local adaptive capacity which can be used to identify context specific priorities.
  33. 33. Example - Sustainable land management practices have potential to reduce emissions and mitigate the negative impacts or climate change by increasing yields. The IPCC estimates that improved agricultural and land management practices in SSA could make a significant contribution to reducing global emissions and sequestering carbon. Mainstreaming conservation farming has led to a near doubling of maize yields in Zambia since 1990. Photos courtesy of Conservation Farming unit.
  34. 34. Example – Enhancing risk management Safety nets programmes in Kenya and Ethiopia are targeted at the most vulnerable households allowing them to weather shocks and maintain assets. Weather insurance is providing a new option for both individual households and governments to insure themselves against climatic shocks. Sako Dabasso Halake with her livestock insurance payout, Marsabit (photo credit: Jeff Haskins/ Burness communications).
  35. 35. Example – making use of climate finance Private carbon offset funds are financing reforestation in Kibale forest, Uganda. Photo courtesy Kate Holt, Climate Care Use of GEF funds allowed the MKEPP project in Kenya to use a landscape level approach.
  36. 36. Putting our policy into practice… What do we need to do?
  37. 37. What are the key climate change and environmental issues in Country X today? What is YOUR role? What is IFAD’s role in supporting drivers of positive change? What are stakeholders in ESA doing to respond to the challenges of climate change? What are the most promising approaches? The challenges and priorities for Climate Change Adaptation in Country XXXXX

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