None Dare Call It Hubris: The Limits of Knowledge Michael M. Crow President, Arizona State University School of Public Affairs April 12, 2007

Are there limits? Increasing realization there may be a limit to what we as a species can plan or accomplish U.S. failure to protect against and respond to Hurricane Katrina Apparent futility of the plan to democratize and modernize Iraq Operating beyond our ability to plan and implement effectively Inability to identify conditions where action is needed and can succeed Child’s play compared to looming problems: global terrorism, climate change, ecosystem collapse Maddeningly complex but potentially inconceivably destructive

Increasing realization there may be a limit to what we as a species can plan or accomplish

U.S. failure to protect against and respond to Hurricane Katrina

Apparent futility of the plan to democratize and modernize Iraq

Operating beyond our ability to plan and implement effectively

Inability to identify conditions where action is needed and can succeed

Child’s play compared to looming problems:

global terrorism, climate change, ecosystem collapse

Maddeningly complex but potentially inconceivably destructive

Framing the debate Our current approach to framing problems: Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth (1972) How much population growth and development, how much modification of natural systems, how much resource extraction and consumption, and how much waste generation can the earth sustain without provoking regional or even global catastrophe? Science policy/R&D, public debate, political action framed by the idea of external limits: defining, measuring, seeking to overcome, denying, insisting that already exceeded

Our current approach to framing problems:

Club of Rome, The Limits to Growth (1972)

How much population growth and development, how much modification of natural systems, how much resource extraction and consumption, and how much waste generation can the earth sustain without provoking regional or even global catastrophe?

Science policy/R&D, public debate, political action framed by the idea of external limits:

defining, measuring, seeking to overcome, denying, insisting that already exceeded

Conflicting perceptions of limits Technological optimists: Limits are ever receding, perhaps even nonexistent Science-based technologies allow progressive increases in productivity and efficiency 15 billion in industrialized nations achieve once unimaginable standard of living Pessimists: global climate change, the ozone hole, air and water pollution, overpopulation, natural and human-caused environmental disasters, widespread hunger and poverty, rampant extinction of species, exhaustion of natural resources, and destruction of ecosystems

Technological optimists: Limits are ever receding, perhaps even nonexistent

Science-based technologies allow progressive increases in productivity and efficiency

15 billion in industrialized nations achieve once unimaginable standard of living

Pessimists: global climate change, the ozone hole, air and water pollution, overpopulation, natural and human-caused environmental disasters, widespread hunger and poverty, rampant extinction of species, exhaustion of natural resources, and destruction of ecosystems

The dominant life-form All sides in limits-to-growth debate probably agree on two observations: (1) Earth’s surface environment (dynamic, interactive system of complex biogeochemical cycles) falling increasingly under influence of single, dominant life-form: us (2) We exhibit serious limitations in learning, reasoning, innovation, communication, planning, prediction, and organization

All sides in limits-to-growth debate probably agree on two observations:

(1) Earth’s surface environment (dynamic, interactive system of complex biogeochemical cycles) falling increasingly under influence of single, dominant life-form: us

(2) We exhibit serious limitations in learning, reasoning, innovation, communication, planning, prediction, and organization

Scientific and technological innovation Scientific and technological innovation has facilitated enormous growth (1850– ): Population of the earth has increased approximately sixfold Average life span of those living in the industrialized nations has doubled Agricultural productivity has increased by a factor of five Size of the U.S. economy alone has increased more than 200-fold Number of U.S. scientists has increased by over seventeen times Volume of globally retrievable information stored (analog and digital) expanded by incalculable orders of magnitude

Scientific and technological innovation has facilitated enormous growth (1850– ):

Population of the earth has increased approximately sixfold

Average life span of those living in the industrialized nations has doubled

Agricultural productivity has increased by a factor of five

Size of the U.S. economy alone has increased more than 200-fold

Number of U.S. scientists has increased by over seventeen times

Volume of globally retrievable information stored (analog and digital) expanded by incalculable orders of magnitude

During this same period… 20% of bird species driven into extinction 50% of all freshwater runoff consumed 70,000 synthetic chemicals introduced into the environment Sediment load of rivers increased fivefold Two-thirds of major marine fisheries fully exploited or depleted

20% of bird species driven into extinction

50% of all freshwater runoff consumed

70,000 synthetic chemicals introduced into the environment

Sediment load of rivers increased fivefold

Two-thirds of major marine fisheries fully exploited or depleted

Alternative trajectories Central question: Will we choose wisely among alternative trajectories or blunder onward? Joel Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support? Many possible futures available to us But present trajectories of growth cannot be maintained indefinitely (Malthus correct but failed to appreciate productivity gains via science and technology) Markets will adjust to eventual depletion of fossil fuel reserves But likely too shortsighted to prevent global economic disruption (global war?)

Central question: Will we choose wisely among alternative trajectories or blunder onward?

Joel Cohen, How Many People Can the Earth Support?

Many possible futures available to us

But present trajectories of growth cannot be maintained indefinitely

(Malthus correct but failed to appreciate productivity gains via science and technology)

Markets will adjust to eventual depletion of fossil fuel reserves

But likely too shortsighted to prevent global economic disruption (global war?)

What are the limits? What are the limits? How do we define the problem? Limits imposed by nature and the environment? Limits on our collective ability to acquire, integrate, and apply knowledge Although difficult to isolate, useful to consider six broad categories: Limits of the individual Limits of sociobiology Limits of socioeconomics Limits of technology Limits of knowledge Limits of philosophy

What are the limits? How do we define the problem?

Limits imposed by nature and the environment?

Limits on our collective ability to acquire, integrate, and apply knowledge

Although difficult to isolate, useful to consider six broad categories:

Limits of the individual

Limits of sociobiology

Limits of socioeconomics

Limits of technology

Limits of knowledge

Limits of philosophy

Individual limits We all operate out of self-interest, which is entirely rational Community spirit and altruism may be motivating factors Nevertheless, each must pursue own interests As social systems grow more complex and impinge more on natural systems, our individual vision captures less and less of the big picture Our only option is to accept the inevitability and the limits of individual rationality We must take into account in formulating public policy and collective action

We all operate out of self-interest, which is entirely rational

Community spirit and altruism may be motivating factors

Nevertheless, each must pursue own interests

As social systems grow more complex and impinge more on natural systems, our individual vision captures less and less of the big picture

Our only option is to accept the inevitability and the limits of individual rationality

We must take into account in formulating public policy and collective action

Sociobiological limits Extraordinarily competitive as species and individuals Toolmaking, language, self-awareness, abstract thought We compete among ourselves at every organizational level We compete with other species at virtually every ecological niche Cooperation occurs (tribe or nation) in order to compete (war between tribes or nations) We dominate billions of species but lack structures to foster effective cooperation We must transcend our sociobiological limits of competition

Extraordinarily competitive as species and individuals

Toolmaking, language, self-awareness, abstract thought

We compete among ourselves at every organizational level

We compete with other species at virtually every ecological niche

Cooperation occurs (tribe or nation) in order to compete (war between tribes or nations)

We dominate billions of species but lack structures to foster effective cooperation

We must transcend our sociobiological limits of competition

Socioeconomic limits Market economics and democratic politics attempt to make virtue of individual and sociobiological limits Yet we cannot integrate consequences of competition into planning processes Our competitive nature values the individual over the group But the aggregation of our individual actions constantly surprises us Global economy predicated on expectation of continued growth and development derived from ever-increasing resource exploitation

Market economics and democratic politics attempt to make virtue of individual and sociobiological limits

Yet we cannot integrate consequences of competition into planning processes

Our competitive nature values the individual over the group

But the aggregation of our individual actions constantly surprises us

Global economy predicated on expectation of continued growth and development derived from ever-increasing resource exploitation

Socioeconomic limits (continued) Difficult to anticipate or account for costs and risks of group behavior over long term We do not deliberately waste time in traffic jams to increase greenhouse gases Costs and risks vary from individual to individual and from group to group Cost-benefit calculations (New Orleans): probability of catastrophic flooding versus cost of protecting city Individual perspective outweighs collective in the political system Efforts to advance long-term interests of the whole by controlling short-term behavior of the individual doomed to failure (global collapse of communism)

Difficult to anticipate or account for costs and risks of group behavior over long term

We do not deliberately waste time in traffic jams to increase greenhouse gases

Costs and risks vary from individual to individual and from group to group

Cost-benefit calculations (New Orleans): probability of catastrophic flooding versus cost of protecting city

Individual perspective outweighs collective in the political system

Efforts to advance long-term interests of the whole by controlling short-term behavior of the individual doomed to failure (global collapse of communism)

Technological limits We turn to technology to evade the behavioral limits of biology and economics Technology harnessed to marketplace (industrialized societies enjoy previously unimaginably high standards of living) In doing so we have put our future into the hands of the lowest bidder Cheap oil and coal, for example, ensure dependence on internal combustion engine Excess and not shortage of polluting hydrocarbon fuels History shows that gains in efficiency more than offset by increased consumption Less pollution per mile but more miles driven Technologies address current predicaments but compound future problems

We turn to technology to evade the behavioral limits of biology and economics

Technology harnessed to marketplace (industrialized societies enjoy previously unimaginably high standards of living)

In doing so we have put our future into the hands of the lowest bidder

Cheap oil and coal, for example, ensure dependence on internal combustion engine

Excess and not shortage of polluting hydrocarbon fuels

History shows that gains in efficiency more than offset by increased consumption

Less pollution per mile but more miles driven

Technologies address current predicaments but compound future problems

Knowledge limits No a priori reason to expect that what we can know is what we most need to know Science uses disciplinary organization to focus on questions that can be answered Disciplines resist synthesis Separated by methodology, terminology, sociology, disparate bodies of fact Disciplinary specialization has been the key to scientific success But such specialization occludes knowledge of the whole (Whole: 6 billion people with collective capability of altering biogeochemical cycles)

No a priori reason to expect that what we can know is what we most need to know

Science uses disciplinary organization to focus on questions that can be answered

Disciplines resist synthesis

Separated by methodology, terminology, sociology, disparate bodies of fact

Disciplinary specialization has been the key to scientific success

But such specialization occludes knowledge of the whole

(Whole: 6 billion people with collective capability of altering biogeochemical cycles)

Knowledge limits (continued) Can science generate the knowledge necessary to govern the world that science has made? Do we even know what such knowledge might be? Producing 70,000 synthetic chemicals is easy compared to dealing with their effects Billions spent studying our interference with biogeochemical cycles, but we remain clueless Even less knowledge about how to organize and govern ourselves to confront this challenge Dangerous scientific/technological illiteracy among senior policymakers/elected officials Irony: technology-created wealth fuels individualism over civic engagement Insulation from complex technology-related social issues

Can science generate the knowledge necessary to govern the world that science has made?

Do we even know what such knowledge might be?

Producing 70,000 synthetic chemicals is easy compared to dealing with their effects

Billions spent studying our interference with biogeochemical cycles, but we remain clueless

Even less knowledge about how to organize and govern ourselves to confront this challenge

Dangerous scientific/technological illiteracy among senior policymakers/elected officials

Irony: technology-created wealth fuels individualism over civic engagement

Insulation from complex technology-related social issues

Philosophical limits “ The academy” remains focused on relatively simple question of understanding nature More meaningful to understand nature with a purpose, an objective, an end What is the purpose of our effort to understand nature? To live in harmony with nature or to exploit it more efficiently? Philosophical inquiry guided by fundamental questions (“Why are we here?” and “How should we behave?”) Literal answers provided by science amount to mockery (Expanding cloud of gas 15 billion years ago… formation of primordial nucleotides and amino acids….) Insufficient to promote commonality of purpose necessary for planetary stewardship We lack a unified or unifiable metaphysical basis for action

“ The academy” remains focused on relatively simple question of understanding nature

More meaningful to understand nature with a purpose, an objective, an end

What is the purpose of our effort to understand nature?

To live in harmony with nature or to exploit it more efficiently?

Philosophical inquiry guided by fundamental questions

(“Why are we here?” and “How should we behave?”)

Literal answers provided by science amount to mockery

(Expanding cloud of gas 15 billion years ago… formation of primordial nucleotides and amino acids….)

Insufficient to promote commonality of purpose necessary for planetary stewardship

We lack a unified or unifiable metaphysical basis for action

Philosophical limits (continued) Limits could be parsed and defined in many different ways Purpose to acknowledge boundary conditions in learning to manage our impact on earth How can we create knowledge and foster institutions sensitive to boundary conditions? Not found in compartmentalized traditional disciplines that we nurture so earnestly We assign inordinate significance to distinctions in a strict hierarchy: Disciplines trump other disciplines based on their quantitative capacities

Limits could be parsed and defined in many different ways

Purpose to acknowledge boundary conditions in learning to manage our impact on earth

How can we create knowledge and foster institutions sensitive to boundary conditions?

Not found in compartmentalized traditional disciplines that we nurture so earnestly

We assign inordinate significance to distinctions in a strict hierarchy:

Disciplines trump other disciplines based on their quantitative capacities

Multiple ways of thinking Academy unwilling to embrace multiple ways of thinking, different disciplinary cultures, orientations, and approaches that have arisen over thousands of years Our science remains culturally biased and isolated: Western science derivative of philosophical model of domination and manipulation of nature Little acceptance of natural systems and dynamics

Academy unwilling to embrace multiple ways of thinking, different disciplinary cultures, orientations, and approaches that have arisen over thousands of years

Our science remains culturally biased and isolated:

Western science derivative of philosophical model of domination and manipulation of nature

Little acceptance of natural systems and dynamics

Problems require multiple approaches The problems that we face are not hierarchical Nor do they fall within strict disciplinary categories Problems require multiple approaches and an integration of disciplines Biologists alone cannot solve the loss of biodiversity Each academic discipline has a Darwinian focus on its own survival Lacks impetus or capacity to develop formal language comprehensible to other disciplines Debate must engage commerce, industry, and government

The problems that we face are not hierarchical

Nor do they fall within strict disciplinary categories

Problems require multiple approaches and an integration of disciplines

Biologists alone cannot solve the loss of biodiversity

Each academic discipline has a Darwinian focus on its own survival

Lacks impetus or capacity to develop formal language comprehensible to other disciplines

Debate must engage commerce, industry, and government

Ignorance society We need new ways to conceive the pursuit of knowledge and innovation, understand and build political institutions, endow philosophy with meaning for people other than philosophers We trumpet the onset of the “knowledge society” But when it comes to our relations with nature, we are still an “ignorance society” We have the illusion of understanding and are not humbled that we do not understand We refuse even to consider the possibility

We need new ways to

conceive the pursuit of knowledge and innovation,

understand and build political institutions,

endow philosophy with meaning for people other than philosophers

We trumpet the onset of the “knowledge society”

But when it comes to our relations with nature, we are still an “ignorance society”

We have the illusion of understanding and are not humbled that we do not understand

We refuse even to consider the possibility

Hubris Hubris, exemplified in the demands we make on science, is a major obstacle to coming to grips with our situation We are obsessed with trying to predict, manage, and control nature Consequently we pour immense intellectual and fiscal resources into huge research programs aimed at this unattainable goal Human Genome Project, U.S. Global Change Research Program But we devote little effort to the apparently modest yet absolutely essential question of how, given our unavoidable limits, we can manage to live in harmony with the world that we have inherited and are continually remaking

Hubris, exemplified in the demands we make on science, is a major obstacle to coming to grips with our situation

We are obsessed with trying to predict, manage, and control nature

Consequently we pour immense intellectual and fiscal resources into huge research programs aimed at this unattainable goal

Human Genome Project, U.S. Global Change Research Program

But we devote little effort to the apparently modest yet absolutely essential question of how, given our unavoidable limits, we can manage to live in harmony with the world that we have inherited and are continually remaking

A new framework for knowledge New principles for organizing knowledge production and application Hints of an intellectual and philosophical framework for creating and using knowledge appropriate to our inherent limits Sustainability to guide inquiry, discourse, and action Biodesign to mimic and harness natural processes to confront challenges in medicine, agriculture, environmental management, and national security Adaptive management for data sets to impart increasing “predictability” Industrial ecology for a model of innovation that can enhance competitiveness while reducing our footprint on the planet Intergenerational equity to apply justice and liberty across boundaries of time

New principles for organizing knowledge production and application

Hints of an intellectual and philosophical framework for creating and using knowledge appropriate to our inherent limits

Sustainability to guide inquiry, discourse, and action

Biodesign to mimic and harness natural processes to confront challenges in medicine, agriculture, environmental management, and national security

Adaptive management for data sets to impart increasing “predictability”

Industrial ecology for a model of innovation that can enhance competitiveness while reducing our footprint on the planet

Intergenerational equity to apply justice and liberty across boundaries of time

Institutional/organizational innovation Society will never be able to control the large-scale consequences of its actions More flexibility, resilience, and responsiveness in academia, private sector, and government Take action to reduce uncertainty about the future and carefully observe outcomes Establish threshold criteria for which planning to promote or obstruct a given outcome should be contemplated Avoid paralysis of “precautionary principle,” which saps innovation and risk-taking More institutional and organizational innovation will help us learn how to deal with the implications of our own limits

Society will never be able to control the large-scale consequences of its actions

More flexibility, resilience, and responsiveness in academia, private sector, and government

Take action to reduce uncertainty about the future and carefully observe outcomes

Establish threshold criteria for which planning to promote or obstruct a given outcome should be contemplated

Avoid paralysis of “precautionary principle,” which saps innovation and risk-taking

More institutional and organizational innovation will help us learn how to deal with the implications of our own limits

Innovation competition Ideological/institutional struggle between communism and market democracy can be viewed as one such set of competing innovations Poorly planned and exceedingly costly, but providing certain knowledge: Rational self-interest cannot be successfully suppressed indefinitely Legal systems that foster dissent and freedom of choice provide fertile culture for innovation We must conceptualize a new series of innovations, at much lower cost and shorter run-time, and apply it to the problem of ensuring that our global society can continue to be sustained by the web of biogeochemical cycles that makes life possible in the first place

Ideological/institutional struggle between communism and market democracy can be viewed as one such set of competing innovations

Poorly planned and exceedingly costly, but providing certain knowledge:

Rational self-interest cannot be successfully suppressed indefinitely

Legal systems that foster dissent and freedom of choice provide fertile culture for innovation

We must conceptualize a new series of innovations, at much lower cost and shorter run-time, and apply it to the problem of ensuring that our global society can continue to be sustained by the web of biogeochemical cycles that makes life possible in the first place